저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미 연준의 금리 인상 속도 둔화 신호로 증시는 산타랠리 중이나, 최종금리는 약 5% 이상 머물 가능성이 커 금리 인하 기대는 과도하다는 견해. 연준 발언 해석: 파월 의장 연설 이후 12월 FOMC에서 75bp가 아닌 50bp 인상이 유력해졌고, 이는 '둔화(moderation)'로 받아들여져 시장이 급등했다. 최종금리 전망: 최종금리는 5% 안팎(±25bp)이며 연준은 당분간 그 수준을 유지할 가능성이 크다. 인플레이션이 시장 기대만큼 빨리 내려오지 않을 것이라는 연준의 우려가 연설에 담겨 있다. 시장 과열 경고: 금리 인하 기대가 과도하며 현재 시장은 다소 지나친 유포리아(euphoria) 상태라고 진단. 금리 전망 및 경제 영향: 향후 3년간 미국·세계 평균금리는 지난 3년보다 높을 수 있으며 이는 경제활동과 수요에 부담이 된다. 팬데믹 이후 상황은 예측이 어렵다. 채권시장 시각: 채권시장은 인구 고령화로 세계 경제 성장이 둔화될 것이라는 메시지를 담고 있을 수 있으며, 이 때문에 금리가 오르기보다 낮은 수준에 머물 수도 있다. 인도·아프리카는 인구가 증가 중이라는 예외. 관련 자산: 미국 증시 전반(나스닥·S&P500 등 직접 언급은 없음), 미국채 금리는 높은 수준 유지 전망, 달러는 연준 스탠스 변화로 약세 흐름이 언급됨.
다듬은 글
but the big headline is of course uh coming in from the US where overnight we not only got the GDP data but as we've just put across to you the the speech around midnight here in India you've seen da actually rally almost 20% from the from the low you've seen the US dollar fall yen is at a three-month High um so it's green run as far as the Indian markets go it's a good construct with the global events also all falling in place and that's exactly what we're going to now be discussing with our Market guest y yini the president and chief investment strategist at yini re Searcher good morning here in India so you've seen that big big rally is this the Santa Claus rally the markets are now finally getting what they wanted the Fed rate will not Peak above 5% and we perhaps not going to see another 755 basis point rate hike I think all we can really say from the speech is that uh poell made it pretty clear that instead of 75 basis points increase in the FED funds rate at December 13th 14th meeting we're probably going to get a 50 basis point increase uh he didn't promise that would be the end of it he suggested there might be more but clearly the word moderation is what got the stock market very excited that uh they're no longer talking about just willly and Illy doing these big uh hikes every meeting but they're going to slow it down and I think the market figures that we'll probably get to a terminal rate of around 5% and that the economy can live with it um markets right now so are excited they feel that the FED has interest rates have pivoted and the only way interest rates will go now is going to be lower what are the chances that What markets are celebrating today could get challenged because fed has not promised that they will cut rates they promised that they will go slow quite the opposite as you suggest and not only will they go slower on raising interest rates but once they decided that they are where they want to be and that could be around 5% uh plus minus 25 basis points but we're getting pretty close to where they probably want to be but they've said it over and over again they're going to stay there for a while they don't believe that inflation is going to come down as quickly as the markets seem to believe and I think uh if you read the speech carefully and I think we all try to read the speech carefully uh I certainly did it made it very clear that uh uh the the Fed chair is very much still concerned that inflation is uncertain it's unpredictable and it uh may may may persistently stay higher for a while which would require the FED to keep the FED funds rate around 5% in which case it's hard to imagine that the bond yield can fall much more than it has so I think the markets there may be a little bit too much Euphoria in the markets right now though I I do think we're experiencing what is often called a Santa Claus rally and the Santas has come early instead of last week of December the Santas decided to come this time in the first week of December my followup question so is M the average interest rates for the US economy and for the world for next three years will be higher than last three years how what do you think will be the impact of that on the economic activity and demand yeah well I think ever since the pandemic uh we can't say anything with certainty uh everything's kind of Topsy Turvy upside down um look um I I am kind of looking at the bond market and wondering is there a message there that we really should take seriously and maybe the bond markets looking at the global economy and concluding that demographically things are going to remain pretty slow uh populations have aged just about everywhere with two important exceptions by the way India's population is not aging and it's growing rapidly the same thing can be said for Africa but on a global basis there really is a Slowdown in global populations and that may be one of the reasons why bond yields may not go up from here and might actually stay down such a pleasure having you on the show today thank you for taking the time out my pleasure always thank you let
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