저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 페이버는 금이 장기 인플레이션 헤지로 유효하다고 보지만 단기 성과는 불확실하며, 달러의 기축통화 지위는 장기적으로 약화될 것이라고 전망한다. 금 가격: 1971년 금 태환 중단 이후 1970년대 35달러에서 1980년 850달러로 급등했고, 현재 1900달러 부근이며 최근 다소 조정 중이라고 설명. 단기 흐름은 설득력이 떨어진다고 평가하며 추가 조정 가능성을 언급. 금의 리스크: 은행 예치금은 은행의 상환 불능 위험이 있는 반면, 금을 직접 보관하면 상대적으로 안전하다고 주장. 다만 정부가 몰수할 가능성도 언급. 달러 기축통화 지위: 달러 비중이 외환보유액의 58%로 낮아졌고, 금은 15%로 11.5년 전보다 증가. 스페인 페세타, 영국 파운드의 사례처럼 달러의 지위도 결국 약화되어 사라질 것이라고 봄. 다만 하루아침에 일어나지 않을 것이라고 강조. 교역 구조 변화: 1960~70년대 세계 무역의 80%가 G7 중심이었으나, 사우디·인도·중국·브라질·나이지리아 등과의 교역이 늘고 있다고 설명. 중국 위안화 등으로 결제가 늘며 달러 우회가 자연스러운 흐름이라고 봄. BRICS 경제 규모: BRICS 5개국의 세계 GDP 비중은 31.5%, G7은 30%이며, 2030년에는 BRICS가 50% 이상을 차지할 것으로 예상. 중국은 2015년 구매력평가 기준 미국 GDP를 추월. 중앙은행 평가: 미국에서는 폴 볼커를 마지막 효과적 연준 의장으로 꼽고, 이후 그린스펀·버냉키·옐런·파월은 돈을 과도하게 찍어냈다고 비판. 유럽중앙은행(ECB)과 일본 통화정책도 더 큰 실패라고 평가. 일본: 10년물 국채금리 0.59%로 실질금리는 여전히 매우 마이너스이며, 마이너스 금리는 인플레이션을 유발한다고 주장. 일본 고급 부동산 가격은 연 40~60% 상승했다고 언급. 미국 경기: 현재 금리가 2년 전보다 높아 저소득층의 수요가 훼손되고 있으며, 생활비 상승이 소득 증가를 앞지른다고 지적. 출연자 전망: 금은 장기 헤지 자산이나 단기 가격은 조정 가능, 달러 기축통화 지위는 장기적으로 약화, 중앙은행 신뢰 낮음.
다듬은 글
if you look at 1970 the price of gold was 35 dollars an ounce it's now over 1900. and it's been kind of easing off a little bit lately and it may ease off more but it was a reasonably good inflation hedge considering what is the risk of owning gold you understand if you place it might worry about placing money on deposits with the banks is that the banks cannot repay you one day that is always a risk Mark Faber the director of Mark faberd limited whose skill as an investment advisor and fund manager has left a notable imprint in finance in this video Faber delves into Gold's historical price its role as an inflation hedge and concerns about government influence gold is a proven long-term hedge against inflation but its performance in the short term is less convincing the year 1971 marked the end of the gold standard and the conversion of gold into Dollars the price of gold was unrestricted if we look at the price of gold over 10 years we can see that the 70s were marked by a very significant rise the price of gold rose from 35 to 850 an ounce between 1971 and 1980 and lying with the oil crises developing inflation and international conflicts Faber is confident the US Dollar's Global Reserve status will diminish over time similar to past currency Replacements like the Spanish spacita and the British pound the US dollar now accounts for 58 percent of Foreign Exchange reserves held by overseas central banks a record low gold the most ancient widely accepted International currency has chipped away at some of the Dollar's dominance accounting for 15 percent of reserves up from 11 5 years ago Faber sees trade moving away from G7 countries to countries like Saudi Arabia India China Brazil and Nigeria hinting at a slow shift away from the U.S dollar the current brics five now contribute 31.5 percent of global GDP while the G7 share has fallen to 30 percent brics is expected to contribute over 50 percent of global GDP by 2030 with the proposed enlargement almost certainly bringing that forward China's GDP actually overtook that of the United States in 2015 when comparing economies and purchasing parity terms we will now bring you clips of Mark Faber from his recent interview with commodity culture before we proceed further in this video please stay updated that the U.S investors experience with some Regional Banks but if you have gold and you keep it in a safe in your house or in a bank or in the depository institution it's relatively safe the government may take it away one day since they managed to lock you down they can also do all kinds of nasty things to you in future and since so many people seem to be in love with Communism and socialism I wish these people had lived under the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia they would not be and endorsing socialism with so much enthusiasm and uh always argue that the government should do this and the government should do that when it's being proven empirically throughout history that the private sector performs better than the government sector and the bureaucracy well I'm convinced that over time the importance of the US dollar as Reserve currency will diminish and eventually be eliminated it's only a question of time the way the Spanish peseta was eliminated and the way the British pound was eliminated as a Global Currency they still exist in local currency but I'd say it's not gonna happen overnight but we can see increasing really the trade shifting say in the 1960s 1970s 80 percent of global trade went through Europe and the US in other words through the G7 countries now this has diminished and more and more trades between Saudi Arabia and Indian Saudi Arabia and China and China and Brazil and China and Nigeria and China and the rest of Africa and so forth so the natural development is that eventually Chinese and these countries will bypass the dollar and settle either in Chinese Yuan or rmbs or in Nigerians nairas or this is natural and it will happen but it's not going to happen overnight because the world reserves are still predominantly in U.S dollars but they will as a percent of total reserves they have diminished and they will continue to diminish in my opinion during the interview Faber assessed recent U.S Central Bankers like Powell Yellen burning and Greenspan he viewed Paul volcker as the final effective one followed by a policy change volcker was Fed chair Between 1979 and 1987 famously breaking the back of inflation in the early 1980s by raising rates to as high as 19 percent he killed inflation but at a cost the unemployment rate shot up to 11 percent the highest since 1940 until the covet pandemic while inequality exploded Faber broadened his criticism to cover the European Central Bank and Japan's monetary policy the bank of Japan's short-term interest rate target has been held at minus 0.1 percent since it first adopted negative rates in 2016 to fight chronic deflation that has plagued the Japanese economy for decades and jump start economic growth it is keeping current policy to cope with growth it still sees as fragile let's get back to interview if you look back at the last few essential Bankers in the USA you had yet you had Now power before that Yellen before that Bernanke and before that Greenspan and before Greenspan in my opinion the U.S had the last good Central Banker which was called Paul Falker after him uh the FED started to print money at the FED chairman who knew something about economics that I give him credit for he is an accomplished economist but he became also a politician that kind of you know wanted to reward the politicians the administration and the Wall Street and so he printed money but not as badly as his successor Mr Bernanke and Miss Yellen and so forth and Anna Schwartz who wrote the the monetary History of the United States with Milton Friedman she badly criticized Mr Bernanke and his reappointment as a Fed chair uh because she said that he's basically a money printer and nothing else so yes uh the the fed and other central banks all you look at the ECB in Europe uh it's even a greater disaster or you look at monetary policy in Japan now the other day I got the report that said that real estate prices in Japan were up something like between 40 and 60 percent year on year for luxury properties and inflation in Japan is say officially over three percent but that doesn't reflect the reality uh the true nature of inflation in Japan is higher and it is more like four five six percent anyway the interest rates on 10 years Japanese bonds is still only 0.59 percent so in real terms inflation adjusted interest rates in Japan are still extremely negative and whenever you have negative interest rates have basically an inflationary impact now in the U.S I'd like to point out interest rates are higher than they were two years ago that destroys the demand of lower income recipients as I explained they struggle because the prices the cost of living of the household is going up more than the income in the coming years Global Currency Dynamics seen poised for a transformation the US dollar dominance as the primary Reserve currency is gradually weakening making way for alternative contenders like gold what do you think about the changing Global Currency landscape and the rising importance of gold as an alternative Reserve asset share your thoughts in comment section below if you find this video informative don't forget to show your support towards our Channel by giving this video Thumbs Up And subscribe to our Channel and turn on notifications to stay informed about our latest videos covering more interesting topics thank you for watching
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