저자: NewMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 2022년 1분기 13F 공시에서 알리바바 보유 지분을 약 50% 축소한 것으로 확인됨. 공시 내용: 데일리저널이 1년간 알리바바를 16.5만주→13.6만주→30만주 매수한 뒤 이번 분기 30만주를 매도. 주가는 매수 당시 약 230달러에서 현재 약 100달러 수준으로 하락. 진행자는 매도 이유로 여섯 가지 가설을 제시하며 어느 쪽도 단정하지 않음. 가설 1 - 펀더멘털 변화: 중국 규제·상장폐지 리스크는 점차 완화되는 추세라 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 다만 중국 경기둔화, 성장 둔화, 러시아 관련 제재 리스크는 존재. 가설 2 - 세금손실 실현(tax loss harvesting): 큰 평가손실을 실현해 과세 이익을 상쇄할 수 있어 개연성 있음. 가설 3 - 홍콩 상장주 전환: 미국 상장폐지 리스크 대비 ADR을 홍콩 주식으로 전환했을 수 있으며, 13F는 미국 상장 포지션만 보고하므로 이런 이동이 축소로 보일 수 있음. 다만 왜 절반만 옮겼는지는 설명이 어려움. 가설 4 - 다른 투자 기회: 멍거는 데일리저널의 여유 현금을 모두 사용했다고 언급. 새로운 투자처(미국 외)를 위해 기존 포지션을 줄였을 가능성. 과거 모니시 프로프리에투스(Monish Pabrai)가 알리바바를 팔고 텐센트에 투자한 사례를 언급. 가설 5 - 경영진 교체: 멍거가 회장직에서 물러나고 스티븐 마이클 존스가 자리를 이어받은 시점과 겹침. 신임 경영진이 중국 노출을 줄였을 가능성. 다만 멍거는 이사로 남아 포트폴리오 사안을 계속 챙긴다고 발표됨. 가설 6 - 레버리지 축소: 마진 부채가 3,200만 달러에서 6,900만 달러로 증가한 상태. 마진 부담을 줄이기 위한 디레버리징일 수 있음. 진행자 결론: 각 가설마다 근거와 반론이 공존하므로 확정 불가. 시청자 의견을 요청하며 영상을 마무리함.
다듬은 글
well big news guys i just got back from melbourne i'm extremely tired but charlie munger just halved his position in alibaba he's always very quick to release the 13f filings right after the quarter ends and he has done so uh once again so it showed that the daily journal corporation halved their stake in alibaba during q1 they halved it i mean 12 months ago he bought 165 000 shares in q3 he bought 136 000 then q4 he loaded up the truck buying 300 000 shares and now in q1 he's basically just turned around and sold 300 000 shares so this is obviously pretty big news in the valley investing community you know charlie munge is one of the most successful value investors out there and alibaba is one of the most talked about stocks in the value investing community so in this video you know let's talk about it what are some of the highest probability reasons that the daily journal corp has just done this and if we start with the most obvious i think the first potential explanation for this move is that charlie has just seen some sort of fundamental change to the business right i mean that's one of the two big reasons why a valley investor might sell as stock gets either hideously expensive or you know fundamentally the story changes now personally i think this is less likely it's not impossible but i think it's less likely and the reason i think that is that generally speaking the risks of an alibaba investment to me anyway seemed to have been slowly dissipating over time you know there was a delisting risk because of the holding foreign companies accountable act where china was not allowing the pc aob to inspect the chinese company's auditing firms and recently we've seen that china is actually telling the accounting firms to prepare for joint inspections then of course there was the risks associated with the vie structures and whether china was going to ask the foreign listed companies to delist or maybe just abolish the vie structure again the csrc came out and said quite clearly that that's not what they're trying to accomplish there was also the risk of a you know prolonged tech crackdown and increased regulation now china have announced that they they want to get this done sooner rather than later they want to finalize that as soon as they can so a lot of these risks have been dissipating over time however you know i don't want to downplay the fact that there are still risks and maybe charlie has said you know what i feel like the story has now changed i mean there are still questions around the economic slowdown in china there's questions around slowing growth within the company there's even risks of potential economic consequences for china generally if they end up siding with russia regarding the conflict in ukraine so maybe charlie just sees some of these issues and you know he feels like the story's changed he just doesn't want to be a part of it anymore that could be a possibility but if that's truly the case you also have to ask why would he only sell half you know maybe he was only able to sell 50 of the stake before the end of the quarter and he'll sell the rest in q2 but i don't know i wouldn't imagine the daily journal owns enough stock that they need to move particularly slowly but anyway that is potential reason number one and then the next one i want to talk about is tax loss harvesting of course we know that capital losses can offset capital gains and can of course reduce your tax bill thus a lot of investors like to take advantage of locking in a loss for the old tax bill only to buy back in later at a lower cost basis it gives them that immediate tax benefit i suppose so maybe charlie is doing exactly what monis propriet did when he sold alibaba he's harvesting a big capital loss while it's sitting there right in front of him because remember charlie was originally buying back when the stock was somewhere around like 230 dollars per share whereas today it sits at about 100 per share so for him there would be a significant paper loss that he could materialize he could lock that in so that very well could be a potential um if he knows he's got big realized capital gains in their whatever their current tax year is so that's definitely a potential hypothesis but then from there the next hypothesis for you know this sell by charlie is that maybe he's converted 50 of the position into uh you know the hong kong listed shares as we've seen a lot of investors have been converting the adrs across to hong kong shares just to cover the the risk of a potential usd listing i suppose and this is interesting because if he were to do this then on the 13f filing which is what we just got it would look exactly like what we're seeing you know it would look like a 50 reduction in the position because of course the 13f just reports us listed positions it doesn't tell you what they've bought in london or in australia or in hong kong so it could be the case that charlie has decided to switch a fair amount of the holding over to hong kong and that would also give him another benefit will give him flexibility to alter the position during both hong kong trading hours and also american trading hours which is that's another little perk however again this hypothesis does raise the question you know if you're concerned about the usd listing risk why would you only transition half of your position over doesn't quite add up the only potential there is that maybe he wanted to transfer the entire position but as we were talking about before i only got 50 percent of it done by the close of the quarter so we'll have to wait and see what he does you know in the next quarter um for this potential explanation but uh anyway moving on then the next big reason the next potential reason behind this alibaba cell is that maybe charlie just saw another opportunity elsewhere that he wanted to take advantage of and this could be the case if he's found a new stock that's outside the u.s because that wouldn't show up in a 13-f filing and it also makes sense that he'd probably have to sell a position to buy something else because it wasn't that long ago that charlie himself was saying that he's used up all of the daily journals excess cash my whole adult life i've never heard cash waiting for better conditions i've just invested in the best thing i guess i could find and i don't think i'm going to change now and the daily journals used up its cash now berkshire has access cash now of course yes they still do have cash sitting on their balance sheet but it's kind of like the dj koh's emergency fund um so it's interesting to hear charlie say that they've you know spent all of their excess cash thus to finance a different bet they probably have to shrink a pre-existing bet so maybe that's what's happened here and remember interestingly that is exactly exactly what monash propriety did when he sold his alibaba position he sold out of alibaba to then go over and put that money into 10 cent yes he did you know do a little bit of tax loss harvesting along the way but the primary reason he sold alibaba was to go over and buy 10 cent because he thought that it was a better business that was also very very cheap so this could very well be the case with charlie as well but you know what would he have bought i mean honestly i have no idea however you know based on the 13f filing clearly it's nothing that is within the united states but then with that said that leads us to the last two potential reasons why he might have sold 50 of his alibaba stake and i think these are very very interesting reasons and honestly something i didn't even think about until i saw them float up online so the next thing i wanted to discuss is was it actually charlie that sold these shares because as we know recently charlie actually stepped down as the chairman of the daily journal corp meaning that his place is now taken by stephen michael jones so it's not out of the realm of possibility that stephen who's also the interim ceo after jerry salzman stepped down could have seen the exposure that the daily journals equity portfolio has to china and maybe didn't like that so maybe reduced their exposure to alibaba by 50 so this to me is very interesting because you know what's changed we see the daily journal buying buying buying alibaba for a whole year as it drops further and further and then the company turns around and sells 50 of the position the very same quarter that charlie munger steps down as chairman sounds like there could be something to that however on the flip side reports out of the company did say that charlie munger will continue serving as a director and as such will continue to pay particular attention to matters with which he has been involved in the past including the company's securities portfolio so this is a tricky one there's evidence to suggest that this hypothesis could be right as evidenced to suggest that it also could be wrong so i'd definitely be interested let me know what you think down in the comments section below but with that said that does lead me to the last potential reason that i can think of anyway as to why the daily journal cut their alibaba position in half and that is to potentially de-leverage the portfolio you know without being an expert in the daily journal corporation i was very interested to hear charlie munger talking recently about how he actually uses margin in the daily journal portfolio even though he's generally against against margin in principle and have a look at this from q3 to q4 the margin debt rose from 32 million to 69 million and the only thing that happened in the portfolio was that he bought more alibaba so maybe he's now just realizing that maybe the margin loan really isn't worth it i mean the daily journal wouldn't have anything to worry about if they did get a margin call but it's still not something that most investors want to you know have to worry about i suppose so maybe he's just saying you know what owning more alibaba on margin just probably isn't worth the risk so i'm just going to deleverage that's also definitely a possibility but again who knows for sure maybe it was also a a call from the new ceo maybe he's not happy with the margin debt and he wants to reduce that risk so we just can't be sure but overall i guess they are my hypotheses so definitely let me know which one you subscribe to more in the comment section below and also let me know if i've missed any if i've just like missed a potential hypothesis as to why he might have reduced 50 but i think those six different reasons are probably the six you know possible outcomes but anyway let me know down in the comment section below if you like this video guys leave a like on it i would definitely appreciate it uh subscribe to the channel and that's it from me i'm gonna go have a sleep because i'm so tired i got back from melbourne yesterday but anyway that's a whole nother story thank you very much for watching guys and i'll talk to you in the next video
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