저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼 포트폴리오의 73.79%가 로우즈·치폴레·QSR·힐튼 4개 종목에 집중되어 있으며, 이 중 세 종목은 '리오프닝(대면소비 회복)' 테마와 맞닿아 있다. 포트폴리오 구성 및 테마 - 애크먼 포트폴리오의 73.79%가 4개 종목에 집중 - 로우즈(LOW)가 비중 23.55%로 가장 큼 - 치폴레, QSR, 힐튼 중 세 종목이 리오프닝 테마에 해당: 외식, 여행, 외출 소비 증가 로우즈(LOW) - 팬데믹 중 과잉투자 없이 수요 급증을 잘 관리한 기업으로 평가 - 선행 PER 14.78로 시장(약 17~19배) 대비 상대적으로 저평가 - 영업이익률이 지난 10년간 꾸준히 증가 - 아마존, 홈디포 등 경쟁 위협에도 매출 확대 치폴레(CMG) - 선행 PER 37.88로 4종목 중 가장 비쌈 - 신임 CEO 브라이언 니콜 체제에서 목표 제시 후 달성을 반복해 신뢰도 상승 - 현재 약 3,000개 매장, 장기적으로 6,000개까지 확장 가능하다는 전망 - 매장당 매출을 250만 달러에서 300만 달러로 늘릴 계획, 250만 달러 목표는 이미 달성 QSR(Restaurant Brands International) - 외식 소비 회복 흐름의 수혜 기업 - 선행 PER 21.57로 시장 대비 소폭 프리미엄 - 2022년을 거쳐 2023년까지 수요 강세 지속 전망 힐튼(HLT) - 선행 PER 25.6 - 글로벌 여행 지출: 2019년 약 1.5조 달러 → 2020년 6,100억 달러 → 2021년 9,100억 달러 → 2022년 약 1조 달러 이상(추정) - 2023년 이후에도 증가하며 팬데믹 이전 수준을 상회할 것으로 전망 - 객실 단가(ADR)가 팬데믹 이전보다 크게 높아 지출 증가 요인 출연자 전망 및 리스크 - 출연자는 애크먼의 포지션이 리오프닝 모멘텀과 저평가 매력에 근거한다고 해석 - 조건부 리스크 언급은 명확하지 않음
다듬은 글
73.79% of billionaire Bill Ackman's portfolio is in these four stocks. Lowe's, Chipotle, QSR and Hilton Holdings. So, this is interesting, since three out of the four really point to reopening trade. This theory suggests that consumers are spending much more of their money on things that were not popular during the pandemic, when we were in lockdown and spending more time at home.
And now that economies have gained momentum with reopening, we are dedicating much more of our money and time to things like going to restaurants, traveling, eating out, going to concerts, and things like that . How to leave the house; Three of the four actions really reflect that. And then he has Lowe's in his portfolio with 23.55% of his portfolio in Lowe's shares.
This is one that piqued my curiosity because it doesn't really fit with the theme of reopening commerce, this push where consumers spend more money and time. Although I must say that Lowe's has done an excellent job managing the business both during and after the pandemic, something I would say very few companies have managed to do.
So I often commend Lowe's and Home Depot for doing an excellent job handling the pandemic. Many other companies that experienced a huge boom during the pandemic didn't actually manage their business very well. I can highlight two very popular ones, Peloton and Amazon, which invested too much in their businesses during the pandemic when everything was booming.
They thought this would persist and spent billions - well, in the case of Amazon, they spent billions more than they should have during the pandemic and now they are suffering the consequences. Lowe's didn't do that, did they? They managed the surge in customer demand during the pandemic without overinvesting in the business and without experiencing significant shortages, lack of inventory, or disappointed customers.
TRUE? They were able to meet that surge in demand without experiencing a post-pandemic hangover due to overinvestment in fulfilling that demand . So, making a precise and very good investment to expand capacity and meet demand, and to moderately decrease it now that demand has changed, which is difficult to do, is not at all simple.
Those of you who have large businesses that experienced these kinds of fluctuations during the pandemic know very well that it was not easy to deal with the boom-and-bust cycle, and many CEOs of public companies have made it clear that this is not easy to achieve. We are giving ourselves a wide margin of error.
And that could be one reason why Bill Ackman has chosen to be at Lowe's. And let me show you a little bit. Let's delve a little deeper. Let's look at the valuations. Looking at the first two, Lowe's and Chipotle, one can see that Lowe's, in terms of future price-earnings ratio, is a relative bargain, trading at a future P/E ratio of 14.78.
This is lower than the market's future P/E ratio, which is approximately 17, 18 or 19, perhaps after today's rebound. And that's another reason why Bill Ackman might be in the picture: because of its relative offer valuation and the excellent progress the company has made. The operating profit margin has grown steadily over the past decade, looking long-term beyond the pandemic.
In addition to that, they have been increasing their revenue and protecting themselves against the invasion of their business by Amazon and their main rival, Home Depot. So, overall, it's a company with excellent performance and a relatively inexpensive valuation. That's why I can understand why Bill Ackman is drawn to this action.
And I spent much more time on this first one because it had the highest weighting in Bill Ackman's portfolio. So I wanted to dedicate a little more time to this action and now I will continue , but I won't dedicate as much time to the others. The next one I'll talk about is Chipotle. It is trading at a future P/E ratio of 37.88.
I believe it is the most expensive of the four main stocks that I will discuss here. And like Lowe's, Chipotle was another company that performed excellently managing the business during the pandemic. The relatively new CEO, Brian Niccol, who has been there, I would say, for about four years, I think, coming from Taco Bell, has done an excellent job managing the business, making forecasts, telling investors transparently what he plans to do , the rate of store growth, the rate of sales increase, and setting targets, achieving them, and then setting higher targets and achieving those as well.
Therefore, the market has really liked what Chipotle has done and is very excited about the prospects it has presented. They currently have around 3,000 restaurants open, and the new CEO, Brian Niccol, has said there is room for Chipotle to grow to 6,000 restaurants in the long term. That is, more than doubling its location base.
So there is growth in restaurants. Good long-term growth projections for the number of restaurants. But in addition to the growth in the number of restaurants, the CEO also expects sales per restaurant to increase from 2.5 million to 3 million. And management has gained credibility because they previously set a goal of reaching $2.5 million in sales per restaurant, a goal they recently achieved.
So they reached that goal of 2.5 million in sales per restaurant and have increased it. Therefore, they gain a lot of credibility from investors including Bill Ackman, and you can understand why Bill Ackman is attracted to this stock with very good long-term growth prospects . And moving on to QSR, Restaurant Brands International, we continue with this trend of consumers spending more of their money dining out at restaurants.
Something that was significantly restricted during the pandemic. You couldn't go out to eat. And as it started to reopen now, consumers are releasing this pent-up demand just by, you know, getting out of the house, being surrounded by people, being out of their homes and eating somewhere else . And this is creating a boom in demand for these places.
And QSR, like Chipotle, has benefited from this, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.57. So it's not significantly more expensive than the market. I mentioned earlier that the market has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 18 or 19, so you're paying a small premium for this company that is experiencing a significant surge in consumer demand, which persisted through 2022 and continues into 2023.
Similarly, Hilton Worldwide Holdings continues that trend, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6. And an interesting note about travel is that during the pandemic year of 2020, global travel spending plummeted from $1.5 trillion in hotel and resort expenses. That fell to $610 billion in 2020.
That rebounded to $910 billion in 2021 and a little over $1 trillion in 2022. So there was a big rebound in 2021, a smaller increase in 2022, and I suspect smaller increases will continue in 2023 and 2024. So, travel-on-demand spending is increasing like a light dimmer rather than a quick switch to recover to that $1.5 trillion in spending as it was before the pandemic.
TRUE? So we're at 1.1 trillion. At least that was the estimate for 2022. The official figure has not yet been released. 2023 will probably be higher than 2022 and I suspect it will continue to rise to far exceed the pre-pandemic level of 1.5 trillion, because the price level has increased. If we look at the ADR, which is the average daily rate that people pay for hotels and resorts , it is significantly higher than before the pandemic.
So even if people travel the same amount as before the pandemic, total spending will increase because prices have gone up. And so it can be seen that Bill Ackman is taking advantage of that momentum that will persist throughout the year. So there you have it. 73.79 . And we've reviewed the reasons why he likes each of these actions.
I hope you enjoyed this video. Thanks for watching and ev to learn about the 10 best stocks to buy now.
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