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Today is Sunday, May 11 consumer price index. Thursday, we're going to see US retail sales along with the producer price index. And we're also going to see the initial jobless claims. Drone Powell did say at his Fed meeting that they're going to take a wait and see approach in regards to the tariffs in the economy.
It does still look like we're going to see the first rate cut at the July Fed meeting. So, it's going to be pretty important that the consumer price index along with the producer price index come in at pretty good numbers. To keep everything on track for that July rate cut, I did go ahead and make those two position changes that I referenced in my last update.
Palanteer had made up just above 5% of my portfolio while PayPal was sitting above 7. And I do think that Palanteer is going to outperform PayPal. So, I essentially flipped the weightings in my portfolio. So, now Palanteer sits at above 7 and PayPal sits slightly above five. And I did that by trimming 25% of PayPal and adding 35% into my Palunteer position.
If we take a look at the SPY chart for the last update, we had closed right at the 5day moving average, which I considered completely normal because we had been going pretty much straight up since April 21st. And since then, on Wednesday, the markets had an increase along with Thursday before slightly falling on Friday.
And the SPY price does still sit above the 5-day moving average. And both of those do still sit above the 15. So, I'd say all things considered, the markets did survive Jerome Pal's Fed speech. There's usually always at least a little bit of doubts in the market because you never really know what he's going to say.
And then if we zoom out, you'll see that the spy price is still trading above the longerterm green trend line, which is definitely an encouraging sign. And if we remove the longerterm green trend line, you'll see that we're still trading just below the resistance level, but we are still a pretty healthy amount away from the support level.
So if we zoom in and add back the longerterm green trend line, the thing that I'm going to be looking out for is to make sure that the spy price doesn't cross below it. It did close directly at it on May 6th, but it never actually crossed below it. And I do think that if we cross below it, we are ultimately going to get down to this support level, which would imply a 4.4% decline from where we are right now.
Even if the spy price does fall all the way down there, it is still possible to be bullish on the markets as long as it doesn't actually cross below it and it is able to bounce off of it. But ideally, we're not going to cross below this longerterm green trend line and we're going to bust through this resistance level.
If we check back in on the VIX chart, you'll see that since April 8th, it's pretty much been a straight shot down. For the last few weeks, we had sort of been plateauing and not making any further progress. and where it closed at on Tuesday for the last update was pretty much the highest that it had been recently.
So, I put this resistance level here to use as a measurement to determine when I would get a little bit nervous about the VIX chart. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all saw declines in the VIX. And I think getting above this resistance level isn't all that likely. And where the VIX price sits at now is the closest that it's been to the top of its normal trading range since it originally busted above it.
So, at least for now, it does look like the VIX is on track to get back into its normal trading range. Along with the spy price being above its longerterm green trend line and the possibility of some rate cuts in July, I'm definitely feeling pretty good about the markets. , Dave, Meta, Nvidia, and Welltowwer make out my top five, and those make up 43.37% of my portfolio.
The biggest highlight in my portfolio since my last update was definitely Dave, which now sits at an 86.98% gain and has moved its way into my number two position. They reported in their earnings a 47% year-over-year increase for their revenue and gave extremely good guidance for the rest of the year.
I haven't done it yet, but I do intend to trim that position and lock in some of the profits. Right now, it sits at a 9.01% waiting, but I would like to see it closer to 7.5 or even 8. And what I would most likely do with that money is increase my Shopify position, which right now sits at a 4.49% waiting, but has a 14.67% loss.
I do think that once all the dust settles on the tariffs, that's a position that could see some pretty healthy gains. Disney also reported very good earnings with a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue. They also posted an earnings per share of A145 when the street was looking for a$120 and that now has a 7.71% gain and accounts for 5.79% of my portfolio.
Other than taking some profits in Dave and putting that back into Shopify, I don't really intend on making any more position changes. I do sit at 94.97% invested, which leaves me with 5.03 .97%. Persian Square had a gain of 0.55 and the S&P 500 saw a gain of 0.96. 6.15. Persian Square is at a gain of .005 and the S&P 500 is at a loss of 3.56.
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