저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
5/7 FOMC 금리 동결 가능성 97%로 사실상 확정, 6월 0.25%p 인하 확률 34%, 7월 인하 가능성이 높다는 CME 페드워치 해석. 본인 포트폴리오 월마트·마인드메디신 각 25% 증액, 현금 5.24%로 1~2주 추가 변경 없을 계획. VIX 하락 추세로 공포 완화, 시장 상승 가능성 언급. 포트폴리오 연초 대비 3.03% 수익, S&P500 -3%.
다듬은 글
Today is Sunday, May 4, Thur, but the most important thing is going to come on Wednesday, which is going to be Jerome Powell's Fed meeting. Let's go ahead and check out the CME Group's Fed Watch outlook for the next three meetings. For the meeting on Wednesday, they have a 97.2% 2% chance of the rates remaining the same, which only puts in a 2.8% chance that we see a rate cut.
So, at this point, it's pretty much already locked in that we're not going to see one in May. If we skip ahead to the June 18th meeting, you'll see that there's a 65.1% chance that rates remain the same with a 34% chance of a quarter basis point cut. And it's not going to be until the July 30th meeting that we see a clear indication for a rate cut.
For that meeting in July, they have it at a 55.2% chance for a quarter basis point cut with a 23.4% chance for a half a point cut. So hopefully everything that Jerome Powell says on Wednesday sort of falls in line with what the CME group's outlook is because at this point there's a pretty clear picture for there being at least a quarter basis point cut at that July meeting.
So I'm certainly hoping that nothing that Jerome Powell says kind of derails that. Since my last update, I did decide to increase two of my positions. I increased both Walmart and Mind Medicine by 25% a piece. If we take a look at the chart for Walmart, you'll see that the chart basically follows all the other stocks.
Starting about the middle of February, it began its downtrend. And from the peak to the low of that slide, it fell 22.38%. The recovery started on April 10th when the share price rose above the 5day, which also sat above the 15-day moving average. And you can see that since that time it's remained exactly the same.
We are sitting directly at the longer term trend line. Walmart also reports their earnings on Thursday, May 15th. So even if Walmart bounces back below the longerterm trend line, I am hopeful that they're going to report positive earnings. And if we're not already above the longerterm trend line by then, I definitely think that that'll be the catalyst that pushes us above it.
And then if we take a look at the MACD chart on the bottom, the blue line is what actually represents the MACD. And the golden line is what represents the signal. And you can see right here that the MACD line almost crossed below the signal line, which would have been considered a bearish move. But ever since the share price in the 5day were able to stay above the 15.
The MACD line has remained above the signal line the entire time. So that definitely gave me confidence to increase my position prior to earnings. And then if we take a look at the chart for Mind Medicine, you'll see on Wednesday, April 23rd, the share price was able to rise above the 5day, which also rose above the 15.
Where the share price sits right now is slightly above the longerterm trend line, and we are just a notch below the nearest resistance level. They do report their earnings on Thursday, May 8th. Mind Medicine is a clinical trial stage pharmaceutical company, so they won't actually have any earnings to report, but it is an opportunity for the company to give business updates with future guidance.
So, if the company gives good guidance and we're able to get above this resistance level, it would be a 17.36% gain to reach the next one. And with Mind Medicine being a smaller portion of my portfolio, I definitely felt like it was worth it to go ahead and add more. If you take a look at the VIX chart, you'll see over the last few trading sessions, it has continued to move downward.
It does still have to fall another 8.76% to get to the very top of what I consider its normal trading range. And I consider the VIX getting back into its normal trading range very important cuz that implies that there's a lot less fear than there used to be. And if there's less fear in the market, stocks have a way better chance of going up.
And then price sits above the 5day, which also sits above the 15. And we were also able to get above this longerterm green trend line. So far from the bottom on April 8th, it has only been able to make one new higher low. I really thought that we were going to make a second higher low before crossing this longerterm green trend line, but that's a good thing because that shows that there's confidence in the markets, which is reflected by the previous VIX chart, which showed it going lower.
We'll have to see how this week plays out, but I do think that as long as Jerome Powell doesn't say anything that the markets disagree with, we should keep moving higher. , Welltowwer, Costco, and Nvidia make up my top five, and those are going to make up 43.55% of my portfolio. This week's biggest winners were definitely Palanteer, which now has a 43.32% gain, and Spotify, which now has a 28.28% gain.
You can see that after the 25% addition to both Walmart and Mind Medicine, those two positions are still my two smallest, but it does bring both of them closer to my positions 10 through 12. Right now, I do have 94.76% of my portfolio invested, which only leaves me with 5.24 sitting in cash. I was previously sitting in the high 7% range for my cash.
So, by making those additions to Mind Medicine and Walmart, it brought me a lot closer to the 5% that I'm looking for. And since I'm pretty much already there, I do anticipate not making any changes to my portfolio for the next week or two. Of course, that could very easily change, but at least for right now, that is the plan.
Since my last update, my portfolio had a gain of 4.75%. Persian Square had a gain of.37 and the S&P 500 saw a gain of 2.26, which brings us year to date. My portfolio is at a gain of 3.03. Persian Square is at a loss of.31. And the S&P 500 is at a loss of 3.
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