저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
4월 29일 고용 지표는 JOLTS 채용공고 720만(예상 750만)으로 부진했고, 소비자신뢰지수 86으로 5개월 연속 하락했다. 다만 해고는 둔화 추세다. S&P500은 5일선·15일선 위에서 상승 흐름이며 RSI는 50 부근, MACD는 시그널선 위에서 벌어지는 중, VIX는 정상 범위 상단에 근접해 있어 시장 여건을 낙관적으로 본다. 연휴 전 주간 일정(GDP, PCE, 고용보고서 등)에 대해서는 주 후반 긍정적 뉴스가 더 많을 것으로 기대한다. 포트폴리오는 92.69% 투자 상태이며 현금 비중을 5%대로 낮추고 싶다고 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
Today is Tuesday, April 29. Today, we saw the job openings come in at 7.2 million when the street was looking for 7.5. I did decide to put it in red because it was negative. On the bright side, the layoffs have slowed down, so that is one positive. The consumer confidence did come in lower than expected at 86 when the street was looking for 87.3, which does mark five consecutive months of declines.
So that's going to set the stage for the first month where the actual number is higher than the estimate. And when that does happen, the market should definitely see some positive reaction. And then for the rest of the week, starting tomorrow, we're going to have the GDP, the ADP employment, the personal consumption expenditures index along with pending home sales.
And then Thursday is going to bring us we're going to wrap it up Friday with the employment report along with the unemployment rate. So, we're definitely not off to a good start technically for the week, but I do think that by the end of the week, we're going to have a lot more positive news than we did negative.
And if we move over to the spy chart, you'll see that it's continuing its bullish momentum. On Monday, it was just barely, but the markets did go up and then they continue to go up today as well, which also means that the spy price still sits above the 5day, and both of those sit above the 15. So, since the market has gone up over the last 2 days, obviously, we haven't had an opportunity to have a dip and then a bounce back creating a second higher low.
But from where the spy price is right now, it would have to drop over 8.14% in order to drop below the old previous higher low. So even though we haven't even technically come close to making that second higher low, the farther that the spy price gets from the old previous higher low, we have less of a probability to actually cross back below it.
If we take a look at the RSI chart on the bottom, which is the relative strength index, you'll see that on the bottom at 30, that's when the market's considered oversold. And when it's trading towards the top at 70, that indicates an overbought condition. So, right now we're just above 50, which is actually perfect cuz that indicates that we're not overbought or oversold because it's almost impossible to gain bullish momentum when everyone's panic selling like we see in these two examples.
And now, if you take a look at the MACD chart down on the bottom, you'll see that the MACD first crossed the signal line on April 14th. It then almost crossed below it on April 21st. Luckily, it was able to bounce off of it, and it's continued to increase its distance from the signal line, which is always looked at as a bullish signal.
And last up, we're going to take a look at the VIX chart. This area right here is what I consider its normal trading range. The VIX did climb slightly on Monday before falling again today. So, we still haven't crossed below the top of the normal trading range, but we are getting closer. I say that if we keep on the current pace, it should be another week and a half to two weeks before we actually cross below the top of the normal trading range.
But, of course, that doesn't take into account the bad news that we might get in between now and then. I felt pretty good about the market conditions overall from my last update, but I feel even better about them now. is comprised of Microsoft, Welltow Tower, Meta, Costco, and Nvidia, and those make up 43.45 45% of my portfolio.
I decided not to make any changes to my portfolio since my last update. So, right now I'm at 92.69% invested, which means I have 7.31 sitting in cash. Since I do think that the markets are about to get back on track, I would like to get that 7.31% down to 5. I know one of the positions I wouldn't mind increasing is Mind Medicine, which right now makes up 3.64% of my portfolio, and that's sitting at an 11.72% loss right now.
So, I look at that as a possible good dollar cost average opportunity. Another one I would be interested in increasing is my Disney position. Right now that makes up 5.38% of my portfolio and it's sitting at a loss of 7.31. It was at a 25% loss in my portfolio when I decided to increase my position by 100% and it's gone up more since then, which puts it at the 7.31% loss that it's at right now, but when I entered into it originally, I was really confident about the position.
And at least to me, nothing has really fundamentally changed about their business since I originally opened the position. So the way that I look at it right now is it's actually trading at a discount. My high flyer is definitely going to be Palanteer, which has a 33.87% gain and makes up 5.94% of my portfolio.
Even though that position showing a lot of strength, that's one of them that's extremely volatile. And that 33.87% gain could very quickly turn into just a 20% gain, especially if Wall Street starts to get nervous about it again. So, I'm leaning on just keeping that exactly the same and just letting it do whatever it's going to do because its 5.94% waiting is still a pretty good size.
PayPal with a 19.66% 66% loss and Nvidia with an 18.54% loss are definitely my biggest drags on my portfolio. But I trimmed my Nvidia position about a week ago, so I don't really have any interest in increasing that again. And I do really like PayPal and think it's a great company, but right now 7.48% waiting is as much as I want to have in that unless it can show some sort of sign of a bullish reversal, but right now it's been at between a negative 15% and - 255% loss in my portfolio for quite a bit.
So for right now, I'm just going to leave that one the same. Since Monday, Persian Square had a gain of 2.87%. My portfolio saw a gain of 63 and the S&P 500 had a gain of 65. Which brings us here to date. Persian Square is at a loss of 68. My portfolio is at a loss of 1.65 and the S&P 500 sits at a loss of 5.24.
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