저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 발 'Great Reset' 시나리오를 다룬다. 장단기 금리차(10년-2년) 역전 후 재스티프닝 구간이 과거 침체(1980, 2000, 2007)와 연결되며, 현재 인플레 기대는 낮아졌지만 연준은 금리를 높게 유지할 가능성이 있다고 주장한다. 주택시장 둔화와 실업 증가가 소비·주식에 타격을 줄 위험을 강조한다. 한편 특정 주식 매매를 단정하지 않고, 장기 투자 관점에서 변동성은 감수 가능하다고 말한다. 영상 후반은 자사 강의·부동산 스타트업 홍보가 상당 부분을 차지한다.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve faces a massive ticking Time Bomb many are calling this time bomb what will lead to the great reset where everything is finally affordable again real estate stocks and everybody can have a chance to get their piece of the pie once again what are the odds of a great reset and what do we face ahead should we be selling stocks and sitting on the side lines talk about that in this video this video is sponsored by new verse Pro crash courses with a price increase at 1159 tonight hey everyone me Kevin here and in our course member live stream yesterday we covered some interesting data and in this video we're going to put it together to analyze uh-oh what could we be facing many of you have heard about the inverted yield curve before 10-e and the 2-year spread goes negative don't worry about any of that just know that when this chart goes negative people are usually wor worried here's the zero line when we go under this zero line people start getting concerned that we could be facing a recession and that's because pretty much every single time this has inverted we have faced a recession relatively soon after usually within an average of about 18 months but it's not generally the going negative period that leads to a recession It's usually the going positive period in other words it's not here that's painful it's us usually here that's painful and what we've seen recently is a steepening of this line that is this line starting to try to rotate up again and some were worried that high oil prices and the potential for stagflation could lead this line to Skyrocket rapidly over zero and what has that signaled in the past take a look at this the last time before coid that we've had a situation like this was June of 2007 and we all know what happened happened in 2008 and 9 and the pain that was felt in 10 and 11 trying to get out of the disaster of the housing crisis that was built up all the way through 2007 that came crumbling down in 2008 with the mega collapse of Leman brothers be Sterns and other Banks well what about before that because as you could see in 20089 boy this yield curve was not inverted it was actually massively positive so if you notice you had Euphoria and excitement during the inverted stage uh which was really right here your 2005 6 and 7 era but massive pain during the steepening phase here 2007 89 okay has that repeated itself in history well yes look at the com bubble last time we went positive was from the inversion in 2000 to a rest steepening in 2000 well December of 2000 so into 2001 and a massive rest steepening where well we had a very painful Doom bubble That Came Crashing Down throughout 2001 and 2003 stock market did not bottom out until about March of 2003 which is actually near roughly the top of the this curve when we look at when the stock market really bottomed out in 2009 we also look at about February of 2009 which is also relatively near the top of this curve so in other words the bottoms of the market were closer to the top of these curves and the bottom of these curves signaled more pain ahead well that's not great given where we are now but what do we have in terms of History going back well go back to 1980 when we had an inflationary environment where Paul vulker had to step in to really crimp down inflation expectations and finally prove that the Federal Reserve was not going to bow down to the fear of inflation and give up against the fight what did we get well we had an inversion in the early 80s right here very early in 1980 and the steepening led to a recession technical recession in January to Ju July of 1980 with the recession uh and at most pain peaking around May of 1980 again uh when you started getting this rest steepening and you had a double dip recession thanks to the need for Paul vulker to really crimp down inflation expectations and once again you had an inversion here or I should say a reversion in late 1981 with again most of the pain around the steepening bottoming around the steepening of these curves so the question is will this time be different me consider for a moment in 1980 we were in recession during the steepening over zero 1981 we were in recession during the steepening over zero December of 2000 we were in recession 3 months after the steepening over zero in June of 2007 we were technically in recession within 6 months once we crossed the zero line the only time we were not in recession was actually in 1998 in 1998 we actually came out of zero right here and we didn't really have a recession until well the 2000s but people suggest that right here you had the inversion that led to the pain of the 2000s so the question is was this just luck and what about the inversion over here which technically didn't cross the zero line well a lot of folks say that not crossing the zero line doesn't count and being only -2 basis points inverted here kind of pain to come what is a sign of pain to come is a deeper inversion like oh dear lord what we have over here which is nearly 100 basis points of inversion and according to history we generally going to expect a recession so what possible excuse could there be as to why this time could different well this is a perfect opportunity to talk about the noob vspr crash courses do you want to learn how to buy your first home boost your productivity negotiate real estate this winter all for $79 each for a crash course we expect these courses to cost around $150 to $200 as crash courses once they're published right now they're on pre-sale and we'll be releasing these courses soon but the price PR of this pre-sale will be going up today at 11:59 p.m.
so check out some of these crash courses like and what I'd like you to do is consider clicking these buttons on the right which when you select two or more you apply an additional 10% discount and you apply another one like a third it goes up to 12% look at that apply another one goes up to 14% on the total bundle so you want to get the best price consider joining all of these or maybe if you already have all of the courses or you want all of the courses that I have not just the new corash courses which are brand new content but you want lifetime access to all of the courses all of the crash courses all of the live streams the historical live streams everything that comes with the profit portal well then scroll down to the profit portal and get that before the price goes up tonight as well right here get lifetime access to the complete profit portal both of these at meetkevin.com to learn so what possible excuse could there be as to why this time could be different well some argue that this time is different because individuals have an expectation that inflation is going to go away as a result of people's expectation that inflation is not going to stay and that inflation is going to go away this time is different and the yield curve is just representing the difference between people's near and long-term inflation expectations in other words let's try to make this simplified English okay the yield curve is the difference between the 10-year yield which is your long-term yield longer term yield right compared to the 2-year which is your shorter term yield well people think we're going to have inflation for a few years and then no inflation in the long term then it would make sense that the 2-year pay ra you more money in yield so in other words higher yield and the long term can be lower because we don't expect that inflation to be around long well tn other words maybe today because people believe that inflation will go away in the long term we actually have this inverted yield curve and that this time is just magically different that this is not a problem and maybe that is true that is the best counterargument potentially the only counterargument to why the inverted yield Curve will not signal a great reset though when we simply look at history that seems scary especially since we have ticking time bombs the Federal Reserve faces and we should talk about those ticking time bombs as well as the idea of is the Fed overdoing it well consider the ticking time bomb bombs and then we'll ask is the Fed overdoing it first this is a chart of inflation expectations it shows you that inflation expectations today are around 2.3% for the next 5 years if we draw a line a dotted line across here you can see our inflation expectations are lower roughly lower than where they were going into the 2007 crisis and they're slightly higher than where they were for really the past 10 years before Co so we're kind of in like a mid-range that suggests all right inflation's probably going to go away this corroborates the idea of the inverted yield curve simply signaling hey things aren't necessarily that bad yes prices have gone up substantially but inflation continuing is going away you look at Kroger you look at Costco you look at almost any of the company earnings calls that we've seen this year and what do you see you see inflation that's basically gone and no we're not talking about prices coming back down to lower levels I have to clarify this every time but you should know this the FED is not in business to try to bring prices back down to where they were they just don't want prices to keep skyrocketing that's it okay the FED does not care that prices went from $100 to $130 because we had 20 to 30% inflation they don't care they just don't want to go from 130 to 160 because that's unsustainable so the Fed has to do what I like to say and put on the boot they put on a thick boot kick you in your butt slam you to the ground and then put a boot on your neck the problem is there's a bunch of water on the floor and you're kind of drowning and those are the bombs of the economy this is problematic see the bombs of the economy are the following real estate exploding what happens if the housing market falls apart part well so far it hasn't really happened yet yeah real estate prices came down 10 to 20% in 2022 from their Peak Peak was around May bottom was around December then people started buying again because people believed that interest rates would be high for a transitory period of time that is eventually rates would come down because inflation will go away and you may as well buy now because you're going to buy anyway that's been one of the reasons real estate has been propped up on top of the fact that we just haven't seen enough real estate hit the market because even though some institutions are liquidating there're not enough liquidating and people are kind of locked into 2 to 3 to 4% interest rates so why sell and get rid of that so real estate somewhat survived now eventually real estate will fall apart it can't sustain the weight of 7 to 8% interest rates forever some are suggesting that time is now in fact in the real estate market locally well when I say locally I mean in individual real estate markets throughout the country that I've been visiting from Florida to Nashville to Idaho to Austin Texas to Northern California to Southern California I've started to see a shift markets that were extremely hot are starting to become less hot markets that were less hot are starting to become not hot at all and markets that weren't hot are starting to collapse now that's scary but that's to be expected eventually the people who are willing to say I'll buy and I'll pay the higher payment for a while will go away and then month's supply of housing will Skyrocket even if the number of homes on the market stays the same if the number of buyers collapses month's Supply goes through the roof now what ends up happening real estate prices come down and then the markets that we're investing in unlivable Homes at my real estate startup how house hack we are finding more and more desperate Sellers and home buyers aren't there to buy them which is interesting because not only does it give us great opportunities to buy wedge deals below market value but it also makes us question will things be even worse in November and December the answer is maybe yes so we're being very prudent in the way that we're investing in the market and I believe you should be as well if you though don't have the time money or credit to invest in real estate in looking for a way to get great access to a real estate company consider atch the video explaining the company learn about house Haack it's my real estate startup and I'm really excited about the company obviously with every real estate startup or any startup for that matter there are risks but my goal is to make this company a success that's my goal can't promise it but if you'd like to invest you can invest at a one to1 value valuation which means now until the round closes which once we max out it'll be closed and that valuation probably be gone you can invest where the amount of money we raise is the valuation of the company if we raise $50 million valuation will be $50 million obviously minus fees and otherwise go to house.com to learn more and real estate prices coming down and staying down is something that can lead to unemployment or employment collapsing that's because when real estate values come down we expect that individuals will spend even less money removing one of the last supports that the stock market really has which is even though earnings aren't growing the way they used to grow they have a floor under them people are still spending a decent amount of money because earnings have a floor under them the stock market has actually recovered in somewhat of a Nike Swoosh recovery this year it's been volatile over the last 2 months which we expected all year but but most of the year it's been pretty straight up which is pretty remarkable in this sort of environment so the question is if housing Falls and then unemployment Rises are these the bombs that are officially going to lead to the nasty recession where all of a sudden when people stop spending money companies say that's it we have to lay off not just the little house cleaning but real tightening of the belt because we have to survive and in that real tightening we get a severe recession which is what the yield curve is implying and of course then GDP actually meaningfully goes negative right now GDP estimates are 8% for the end of the year we just had numbers that came out just yesterday that told us we're not knocking on the door of recession just yet when we look at the numbers that came out just yesterday on the 28th we look at GDP prices survey said 2% we got 1.7% once again less inflation than expected GDP annualized comes in at 2.1% it's not recessionary personalized consump or personal consumption comes in lower than expected instead of 1.7% we got 8% so softer than expected but still stronger than recessionary so now the question really becomes how do we put all of this together is this time different and when does the Federal Reserve take the boot off the neck look if inflation is truly going away and companies are starting to feel the pinch and consumption is starting to come in soft why is the Fed keeping the boot on the neck of the economy well it's because of the lessons of the 1980s the lessons of the 1970s and early 80s taught us that if you remove the boot too soon you end up creating repeated short cycles of inflation and recessions so when we left the gold standard in the early 1970s we never crimped inflation expectations and kept them low we never controlled inflation expectations that led to repeated recessions and joblessness over and over and over again multiple recessions rather than 10 years of just growth like we had after the 2008 recession we had 10 years of sessions every 3 to 4 years and that's what the Federal Reserve does not want to repeat today so the Federal Reserve says you know what even if we think and I believe this okay this is this is what I really believe I believe the Federal Reserve is sitting in a room going all right guys and gals listen we got inflation under control inflation is solved not only is inflation solved but if we just stay the course we might be able to nail a soft Landing I think they're sitting in their room saying exactly that however they know that if they come out today and say guys gals ladies gentlemen we solved inflation everyone in their mom is going to go from money market funds to stocks and then they're going to take some of that cash and they're going to go buy they're going to go buy a new car and they're going to go buy a house and what is that going to do it's going to drive up car price it's going to drive up stocks it's going to drive up home prices it's basically going to put a lot of energy and momentum behind the economy again if inflation is gone that's great but what if inflation isn't certainly gone and there's a little bit of a hot spot left like a fire a house burns down fire department put out all the fire and then what do you have afterwards you have little hot spots little areas that are still glowing orange especially when you walk around them with your boots and you kick some of the soot and then all of a sudden oh a little fire reignites that's what they don't want but they can just like that they could support the economy again driving home prices up because as soon as people believe that interest rates are plummeting interest rates will fall rapidly because people will buy bonds they will lock in their bonds they'll lock in the 10year treasury yield this is natural okay this is It's greed 101 but every human should do it if the FED comes out and says inflation is solved every human should literally buy treasury bonds because you've got probably massive capital gains ahead of you you've because you know bond yields will plummet bond prices will Skyrocket stocks will probably go up because now will support the economy again with low rates once again and real estate will go up because finally the people who are on the sidelines who are like I I ain't paying 7 to 8% I can't even afford that or like well now I can afford it A and B if rates are coming down then we'll probably go back to real estate going up because it tends to do that over history so why not that's what the FED doesn't want to do the FED knows everyone is going to do that so they have to lie to our faces they have to lie to us and tell us I don't know might need to you know raise rates again hey uh Jamie Diamond can you come out and suggest that maybe maybe we'll have to go to 7% just put the fear of God and doubt and people that we might truly have to go even higher and you know what so far higher has been true because we haven't had any bomb explode yet in real estate employment and GDP the economy's held up really well so why take the boot off why give up now of course then you've got Energy prices but energ prices are pretty volatile and generally are looked through when it comes to determining inflation yes when gas prices are high it's more expensive for businesses to provide goods and services which should be inflationary but inflation can be limited by the pure fact that businesses might not be able to charge more because of the inelasticity of demand in English people are tapped they don't got money to pay more for crap so they're not going to pay more for crap and to the extent that they're not willing to pay more for crap oil and gas prices going up just creates more fears that we're hitting stagflation when that's probably not the case oil and gas prices are heavily manipulated not only is output heavily manipulated but investment has been incredibly low in new gas facilities and uh oil facilities and Wells why because we were told we hit peak oil what do we need oh what we might need is more data we just got some more data I'm going to read off the data in just a moment here but point is the oil and gas prices are heavily manipulated by Supply con constraints OPEC plus and the lack of us investing in America Keystone Pipeline certainly didn't help lack of fracking uh you know and new drilling permits probably doesn't help almost certainly doesn't help and so of course we're going to get energy price volatility but that doesn't necessarily mean consumer prices are going to Skyrocket what did we just get pce the fed's preferred inflation gauge month over month comes in at 04 the expectation was 0.5 year-over-year matches 35 core deflator month over month comes in at 0.1 versus 0.
2 these are some good numbers good pce numbers personal income matches a 04 expectation personal spending matches Point actually comes in a little low at 04 versus the 0.5 expected and inventories are starting to ooh build up retail inventories expected to come in at 0.5 5% coming in at 1.1% higher than expected with a higher revision on top of that so in other words yeah look the fed's functioning they are slowing the economy they are achieving what they are trying to achieve they're not destroying the economy yet and they're keeping the boot on the neck of the economy to convince us that inflation is gone to try to make us buy money market fund so the question now is do we buy stocks or do we do what the people on Twitter say and why would you buy stocks if you could have 7% money market funds well here's the reality as a licensed financial adviser who's not giving you is the United States screwed is the dollar going to collapse is the debt bubble going to explode yes those things will happen at some point in the future now when will that happen Kevin I probably in 50 to hundreds of years I don't know at some point the debt bubble will catch up unless we have some kind of utopian explosion of GDP at some point the dollar will probably collapse all currencies always collapse unless again we have some kind of utopian explosion in GDP and everybody lives in a Ready Player One capsule and who cares what's happening in the economy because you've got Apple provision headsets on and you don't really care because you're happy and all your needs are met and you'll own nothing and be happy who knows in the near term is the debt bubble and the government shutdown uh really going to collapse the global economy and the United States no even if we go into a recession is it the end of the world no and so for the vast majority of investors if you can look through the pain of potentially the next two years like if you look at the money you have and you're like well I'm working so I can pay my bills for the next two years great or well I got enough Investments to get me through the next two years well then maybe it doesn't really matter what happens in the short term the short term is just a trading opportunity to get in get out play volatility whatever you know Kenny G at Citadel is doing it so why not play trading yourself a little bit as well I send my Buy sell alerts in the stocks and psychology money group is there a big risk to owning money market funds and just sitting in cash of course there is because those money market funds yielding five% or whatever you might be getting on your money market funds depending on your banking relationship my real estate startup get somewhere on and a half% over at JP Morgan uh but that's because you've got to have certain banking relationships and bring in new money whatever uh which we are for our fund raise go to house hack.com to learn more about that point is those money market funds could be an opportunity cost because reality is you want to take that money potentially and if you believe that the world is not going to end you start deploying that to buy distressed real estate probably in Earnest here November December I think things are going to get a little more ugly quite a bit more ugly and I'm starting to see things Trend in that direction right now if I had to tell you which way things were trending in real estate right now it's this way and maybe you buy stocks does that mean you're definitely not going to have pain ahead of yourself no and you look at what looks like a double top on the sqq or the on QQQ or uh or the Spy NASDAQ or the S&P 500 it's not a perfect double top but that's it's only a bull saying it's not a perfect double top it looks pretty nasty okay it usually signals bearishness coming but those again could be trading opportunities maybe sitting in money markets is the right idea or you'll face a massive opportunity cost so what do we have well what we have is an economy that haven't has not faced bombs yet but the Federal Reserve is certainly pushing us closer to facing those bombs in my opinion most of the new inflation that the Federal Reserve is fearing is not manifesting the new inflation is gone yes prices are higher but the new inflation is gone the Federal Reserve at any moment something breaks has 5 a half% of rates to take their foot off the neck that'll be very supportive hopefully to real estate and stocks so I think there can be a very rapid turnaround usually interest rates take the stairs up up and the elevator down because something breaks so the question is do you invest when we're taking the elevator down or will that be too late well the stock market have has have already priced in that the elevator will be coming down soon well if you believe this time is different then you're probably all in on the market because even if it's not different you're going to be able to get through it because you've got enough savings that is the market is trying to pre- price in that you know this time is different and you know when rates fall we'll already have passed the bottom maybe the bottom was you know last June to December of last year because Market's pre-priced in everything maybe maybe the Market's got that good either way probably not the end of the world probably going to be a okay to invest for the long term and get educated and that's why you should take advantage of the expiring coupon code today for the new verse Pro crash courses which will teach you how to negotiate teach you sales teach you investing learn all about them
Comments 0