저자: MeekKevin · 외국인
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테슬라 일론 머스크 보상안이 델라웨어 판사에 의해 취소된 상황을 설명하고, 이로 인한 불확실성이 단기 주가 하방 압력을 만들 것으로 보며 347 지지선 이탈 시 318·295 등 하락을 언급. 연준 위원들의 금리 인하 시사 발언을 근거로 채권이 유망하다고 주장하고, 장기적으로는 테슬라 펀더멘털 영향이 제한적이라고 봄. 본인 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
man just when things started going better for Tesla we just had some bad news about Elon musk's pay package which we've got to talk about it's got me shaking my head because I I don't understand why things like this can happen in America but I will talk about it and try to break it down then in this video we are also going to talk about what the FED is doing because they are setting up for something interesting and I'm trying to understand why so let's go through some of the data let's go through a little bit of what happened today keep in mind uh I am literally buried not only in uh planning and the production and making for the new course but house hack Robo hack and flight train FL like flight train okay like pre what is that pre- solo written exam okay like there's a lot going on and there's construction going on over anyway let's just get into this okay so point is I'll be live again you know starting next week should be okay all right so here's what we got uh first of all a lot of people are going to be worried about what this is going to do to test a stock price test the stock right now it's only down about 1% in the after hours it it it hit a high today well not quite uh this morning in the alpha report I talked about it probably rejecting off that 160 164 level it rejected off of sorry 360 to 364 level it rejected off 364 uh sorry 360 uh and so basically now it's a little bit under 360 but it's above that 347 which is a great place so if we're going to have a little bit of sell down tomorrow I think it's okay because you got a really strong floor at 347 you lose that you go to 318 but the only way you really lose that is if you actually think that a uh Elon Musk is going to not win an appeal because Tesla the board of directors and Elon Musk are going to appeal the cancelling of this pay package right now the pay package is worth 101.5 billion which is the largest pay package ever in in history it puts musk's wealth at somewhere around $340 billion it's it's like a third of a trillionaire is what Elon is right now it's insane a third of a trillionaire dude wow okay anyway uh when the package was awarded the package was only worth $2.6 billion and when the judge cancelled the package it was worth $56 billion now remember judge mccormic denied the first package because she argued that shareholders were not properly informed but the conflicts of interest related to the board members at Tesla like you know Kimble mosque his brother sitting on the board right uh approving and taking part in musk Compensation Plan now a lot of this started because uh a person with nine shares who was a drummer and not that that really matters but that's what he's kind of known as Richard donetta I'm probably butchering his name uh basically filed a lawsuit claiming that Elon Musk was being unfairly compensated so so uh judge McCormack is an interesting one she's a judge with a bachelor's degree from Harvard she got her uh JD so her law degree from uh Notre Dame it's are Great Schools you know a lot of people are like oh no they've all gone woke okay whatever she's 45 years old she is the first female in Delaware's history uh to sit on you know the tile of judici in the type of judicial seat that she sits in uh she is uh someone who has actually dealt with enforcing contract law quite a bit in some high-profile cases including one already involving Elon Musk going talk about that just keep in mind we're going to talk about the Federal Reserve in just a moment I just want to get through this this Tesla stuff and then we're going to talk about the FED which has happened with rates okay I going to talk about that one sec got to get that free cure coffee that I couldn't find another way to cool it down and I don't recommend it I poured some sparkling water in it don't recommend that nasty anyway uh so the judge ordered uh a a another sort of cake acquisition like a bakery basically company uh to that you know there was an acquisition going on for a cake company during co co hit acquisition started before then Co hit a company didn't want to go through the acquisition anymore so they tried cancelling because of covid and she's like uhuh Delaware contract law that is not Material uh or a that does not rise to the level of a material or adverse change you must continue with the acquisition of that cas company now why does that matter because it shows you she's really big on that Delaware contract law maintaining that reputation that Delaware has for enforcing contracts in fact when Elon Musk went through the Twitter acquisition guess who the judge was to basically Force Elon Musk to acquire Twitter Kathleen mccan the same Delaware judge so as you can see she's a big fan of maintaining that reputation of Delaware being great for contracts and corporations but this is this one's where a lot of people are like wait a minute you're watering down the reputation that Delaware has for being good for contracts because now you've literally had two shareholder votes you had a shareholder vote back when the compensation plan was approved with a very clear trajectory if we hit these milestones we will get this sort of compensation and shareholders approved it debt and and then this cycle you had another approval this summer like in fact I made a video I said there's a good chance Tesla stocks going to Skyrocket here you'll look back on my channel I said it multiple times I said there's a good chance we're going to Skyrocket here because we are going to get rid of the uncertainty of the pay package and volatility is at a low level that we have not seen in like three or four years or whatever it was at the time and it did now I wasn't expecting for it to Skyrocket again from where went to you know I thought 265 was pretty good I'm like now the valuations getting a little stretchy you know now we're in the mid3 So In fairness it just kind of keeps going which you know just that's just what Tesla does which is great the question now is how does this affect Tesla stock going forward so uh few things let me wrap this up really quick few thoughts to wrap up over here first on the judge a lot of people getting pissed at the Delaware judge for this because you know have two shareholder votes that are saying we're okay with it because the second shareholder vote also reapproved and basically shareholders are like look we get it we understand what happened then we still approve it so now a lot of people are like this judge is just straight up corrupt this judge is an activist the public the the shareholders the ones who would potentially be hurt by this pay package are saying please give him the money give him the money we promised him then yes we still want to pay him that so like in a weird way if Elon doesn't get this pay you've actually undiluted the by 10% is a little bit more than that right to the tune of $101 billion so theoretically the stock should go up but the reason it won't is because you reopen the door to uncertainty until an appeal goes through of okay well what happens when a new Compensation Plan is installed a new Compensation Plan not with new Milestones but paying him basically for the stuff he should have been paid for and new Milestones could be more expensive for Tesla and it reintroduces that darn uncertainty at the same time of that uncertainty you have a lot of uncertainty going on in auto manufacturing the strikes just started with Volkswagen Bloomberg intelligence just this morning said uh we are at the early stages of an automotive pricing reset which is really interesting because I thought that's already what's been happening for the last two or three years but they actually well maybe not three years the last two years Auto prices have certainly been coming down but especially used car prices plummeting look at the what you you get used Teslas for great deal by the way okay like no referral code for I'm just saying like you want a Tesla with autopilot you pay eight grand for a new Tesla with autopilot you probably pay like one grand for a used car with with uh a used Tesla with the autopilot for the autopilot like it doesn't hold its value so look at that you could compare the market rates for it uh but anyway uh Bloomberg intelligence says that pricing right now for vehicles is 23% higher than the pandemic and that discounting is still below the levels we saw in 2020 even though ventory is way up so in other words pricing is higher we're still not at the high levels of discounting we usually see in autos and there are 50,000 2023 models that are still unsold at companies like uh you know GM or otherwise so in other words you have this potential of introducing a lot of uncertainty for Tesla let's go ahead and write some of these things down so I actually conveniently uh have a whiteboard here which is very convenient uh on this whiteboard by the way I was uh you know in our pilot lessons we were actually charting out uh the trajectory we're thinking for pricing so it takes me like 3 hours to sit down and change all the pricing so I haven't done it yet but once that trumponomics course goes up it's going to go I hope you can see that I don't know if it reverses it but from $ 299 at least 420 maybe even five or 620 just for the Cyber week here so right now it's still here if you want in that Trump anomic I expect when those lectures come out December 17th and you actually get access to cor M lives and trade alerts and everything this is this could be $1,000 close to War haven't figured that out yet but I just thought I'd mentioned that go to Meek kev.com remember what that includes okay just think about but let's talk about Tesla in terms of risk factors that we have now so the first risk factor that we really have to think about is now we have share uncertainty uh and in addition to this share uncertainty for Elon there really there's part A and there's Part B so part A is the Compensation Plan part I really hope this mirrors Part B is the part where Elon Musk said he wouldn't sell shares in 22 he sold a bunch of shares the stock tanked 23 he said he wouldn't sell shares 24 he said he would try not to but he might you right so we're getting closer to 2025 where is he going to sell shares again I don't know I mean he he's got plenty of net worth to where now he should just be able to take out little margin loans right and it'd be a fraction of it's worth but maybe not if that comp goes away so is there a be risk of some Elon selling pressure that should be a buy the dip opportunity then we have V IC uh pricing risk okay so are uh price other vehicles is going to get more competitive this is where Bulls like me like to say hell no that freaking cyber truck is amazing full self-driving 13 just came out I can't wait to try it I'll try it when I'm back home I don't get to see my seven kids I'm a little bummed right now but I will see them soon enough so uh you know I I don't really think there is competition for Tesla but I do think to get to volume growth again prices are going to have to come down so you're probably going to see prices has come down especially FSD it's probably the market price for FSD should be closer to like three grand probably for new FSD anyway for now I think you're going to as much as I think you'll have a clear regulatory framework for robo taxis I think that Robo taxi is going to face a delay as well as Optimus before we actually turn these into dollars so I think this path right here is just going to be a little bit slower than a lot of us anticipate those are going to create buying opportunities for you all this is uncertainty it creates a buying opportunity for you so where we sit right now at 355 okay next stop 347 where's our next line over here honestly it's above ah top of mind it's above like 410 I'll look at it really quickly but it's it's high I don't have a a fib extension for quite a while on this sucker and it is 414 close memory should be 420 oh did you know by the way and I posted this on X uh you should follow me there I should also post some uh Instagram stories for pilot training it's kind of cool but um uh did you know that I'm 69 in tall let's go anyway uh that should be 420 but it's 414 okay uh if we lose 347 which is a really really strong shelf right here if we lose this I think we might be heading 318 295 after that 240 after that with pit stop at that 275 260 levish somewhere around that 265 to 275 level no 70 265 to 270 uh so so there'll be some buying opportunities because of the uncertainty around this and I think I don't think retail is going to sell off this so you're probably not going to see a lot of movement in the after hours off this but I do think this will create some downward pressure over the next few months yes there'll be appeals and blah blah blah blah blah uh is this really going to matter long term no I think longer term Elon will be fine you know it's a 10% fluctuation left or right that's that's not going to make a difference here fundamentally the valuation of Tesla is high listen one of the reasons I think you want to be part of the trumponomics courses you know super micro computer how it's doubled over the last few weeks that's based on pure fundamental analysis I invested in that around 22 23 bucks I send alerts to people when I see opportunities like this and I'm like hey I think this is a good opportunity in fact we did the course member analysis together in our course member live streams and so I encourage you to be part of that so when I see those opportunities at least you can evaluate them for yourself I'm not saying copy trade me I'm just saying here's some information look at the opportunity see if it works for you uh and you know hopefully the fundamental analysis is killing it again I think there's some room on the valuation uh for Tesla right now so uh I'm I'm not the happiest about uh buying at these levels a little bit of exposure I think is okay but let's say you're trying to get to 20% exposure for Tesla I think you want like 1 fifth of that right now and then like load the boat more right as you go down this you know maybe at 3 18 okay now you're going from 4% to 8 you know maybe you're at 265 you're going from 8 to uh you know 12% maybe you get to 200 you know now you're going up to 16% and you get another gift of 150 maybe even lower uh you know that's that's where you're popping up and then of course if it keeps falling at that point your allocation will actually out of your entire portfolio shouldn't actually be rising in percentage level you could keep throwing money at it but because the value is going down your allocation level is not going up so you need something that's going to go up while Tesla goes down what goes up while Tesla could potentially go down well you would need a recession combined with a lot of uncertainty for that to happen and in such a case you would have something like TLT exposure or if you're just insane it's possible if you're really good with the timing TMF okay that's triple leverage stay away from that it's dangerous you could play that for like three four months but not long term uh none of this personalized Financial advice by the way but let's understand and quickly what's going on with uh interest rates because today you know before my it's actually really interesting right now I'm I'm um studying how to land uh and and today uh we started doing my first uh Landings and it's it's really kind of uh entertaining you know this this should be more level here right this is where where you're coming in onto like the target uh and and then you're leveling out a little bit you get a little flare there as you're throttling down right anyway it's kind of cool because this is a little bit like every time I'm doing this I'm like jpow baby the soft Landing come on we got to stick the soft landing and I'm like bang okay this is this is one of the more hard Parts getting it though it's it's it's really fun but let's talk about the Federal Reserve because you know today we had some fed speakers today we actually had three sets of fed speak today so today uh we had um Waller say he is leaning towards cutting uh and when we got Waller talking about leaning towards cutting a lot of people are like wait what's going on like is the Fed sending us a warning and I would argue the answer to that is yes they are uh the jobs Market is slowing I suspect it's going to continue to slow and I think bonds are just going to be the best performing asset over the next year I don't care what ticker you pick uh you could be corporate bonds some some of the highest quality corporate bonds maybe I don't know I don't it doesn't really matter but if we zoom in to uh the 10year treasury today what we'll actually find is uh this is over the last month you know we peaked out when we got our appointment of Treasury secretary subject to confirmation obviously bassent but let's look at the day here we actually peaked going all the way into about 10:00 a.m.
we were back up to about 424 and we fell on this fed speak now we're sitting under 420 again great number so one of the things about going back to 420 and below is I think we're on a trajectory towards really getting under three and a half because rates are so restrictive I do I just don't see the hiring that is going to support this boom that would sustain the uh Atlanta fed GDP levels where people think it is now rather than speculate more about my opinion of what's going to happen let's just understand what the FED is saying because right now Q4 GDP is like skyrocketing look at that Q4 GDP okay 3.2% this is insane it feels overheated but do you see a lot of hiring going on out there I personally don't so I think it's a little loony uh but that's okay people are spending that could contribute to GDP but how sustainable that is comes down to jobs so Waller today says he leans towards cutting will depend on surprises in the data then we had talk from Williams who talks about we have a strong economy but more cuts are merited we're going to be dated independent and then bosk says we're going to be flexible but we're open-minded towards cutting Waller jumps in with some more saying there's no indication we're going to have a Resurgence of inflation although Chicago's uh you know um the Chicago fed's inflation Now cast is suggesting there could be a little pop up in noncore that non-core popup in my opinion uh is the result of uh some of the oil price movement that we had in November so we had a little bit of a jump in oil prices in November if I go out to the six month you could just kind of see yeah I mean it it just you had a couple fluctuations your first week was high your second week was low your third week was high and usually they take the measurement at the first and third week uh and also the second week so two or highs over here I I don't know if that's what's contributing to the knore could also be food prices some food prices have really gone up like cocoa and coffee it's just a combination of all of this and that is so volatile I just I don't even really look at the non-core I just focus on the core and and nothing's really changed there so I'm still thinking bonds are great investment especially as like you know balance to something like Tesla okay so so let's think about this if the Federal Reserve three people speak today and all of them are kind of hinting like oh you know we're going to be open-minded towards Cuts here I don't know that they know data I don't necessarily think they're getting leaked data it's POS sometimes I do think they're getting leaked data I don't know that what they spoke about today was because of leak data but I do think that what they spoke about today was based on what they're actually seeing in the economy post Black Friday sales are we going to get the layoffs are we going to get uh uh you know um more hiring I think they're actually getting on the phone with their contacts you know the the staff at these Banks they're calling their local businesses they're like are you hiring and the answer they're getting is no man no no we you know we had a good Black Friday wasn't great but not enough to get us to hire and I think that's making them nervous and so now they're coming out starting to Dove us and they're getting rates down they're talking rates down remember how I talked about this I I we literally talked about this when when when I was buying bonds I'm like look any poping yields I expect the FED is going to talk them down because if you have a bump at yields you're adding more restrictiveness to the economy and they're going to talk the yields down so you're protected by buying bonds with my thesis now that does not necessarily mean they do it right away in fact First Fed meeeting uh it was not the first fed meeting it was the November fed meeting Jerome Pal's like oh yeah yield have gone up you know what uh they've done this before and then they fell uh like a whole percent over the three months thereafter you know he kind of brushed it off but today I'm really seeing a Fed here that's starting to talk rates down and what does that mean for you it means join the Trump atomics course like you're running out of time here I I I just need a a period of 3 hours to sit there and I'm I'm raising that price at least 120 bucks so it's like a almost 30% bump here actually that's about 30% uh and then uh between uh you know once I raise the prices over the next day or so when I get to it uh then we'll probably pit stop at like 690 and you know by the time the content gets out because it's on pre-sale it's going to be even higher so we'll see some something like that not predetermined right now but it's going to be something big so anyway check that out at me kevin.com uh look I just want to apologize I want to be live I I want to be here with y'all uh more frequently but there's just there's so much going on so just on a personal note uh it is a lot I do feel a little um overwhelmed but I'm trying to balance it we've got some great things going on with house Haack we've got great things going on with roboh Haack we've got great things going on uh with the family everybody's healthy everybody's happy uh you know we've got some some Renovations going on we've got adus going on with with house act uh investors new investors uh you know helping employees grow test learning constant studying uh managing the channel you know whatever it's a lot and I really enjoy it uh the alpha report for example Daily Wealth man the last three days I think I've missed and is hasn't been Daily Wealth it's been like twice a week well I I I got I'm mean I got to get back on the groove of that sorry so um I love you all uh hopefully uh if if I could just say from the bottom of my heart I'm here with you I love you all really I wouldn't be here uh with you without you right uh and and I just want to stay on this journey with you I mean look I'm 32 I've got no intentions of ever not being here and whether I'm right or wrong I'm just always going to tell you my opinion I'm going be here for you all the time so uh thank you for being here for me thanks folks we'll see you bye
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