NKE Stock - Great Business At A Fair Price (Bill Ackman BUY!)

요약 보기

나이키는 주가가 사이클 저점 부근이며 과거 최고점 대비 60~70% 하락했다. 빌 애크먼이 주식을 추가 매수했고, 밸류에이션(P/E 약 20)이 합리적이다. 매출은 분기 기준 약 10% 감소하고 가이던스가 철회되었으며 CEO 교체도 있었다. 다만 자사주 매입과 배당이 이어지고 있고, 장기 성장과 브랜드 가치를 근거로 시장 대비 우위를 기대한다. 경쟁 심화(Brooks 등)와 추가 하락 위험도 언급했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. good day fellow investors Nike stock is trading at cycle lows bill lman just doubled down on Nike as he acquired 3 million shares in the earlier quarter and now another 1 million shares and he's now a little bit into politics but he sees accelerating growth of the country and if there is growth also Nike should return to the growth trajectory it had once and you can see now it is Trading below Trend and at almost decade lows for such a strong company such a strong Brand Plus the p ratio is getting closer to 20 far from the Sap's 530s thus Nike given the strength of the brand looks like a relative cheap buy and that's likely also why Billman is starting to buy because he said that he likes to own Great American businesses at a fair price and if you want a fair price that's what you can get now from Nike this was clearly exuberant as we discussed but now we are significantly down 60 70% and it's time to discuss Nike and as they say vow themselves hopefully they will still be a growth company and therefore despite the 10% decline in quarterly revenues the plan and the management efforts will be for Nike to continue growing but they were down 9% 10% they guided that decline as they are a little bit switching their strategies however there are still dividends there are still share rep purchases and now these share rep purchases look much better as the stock price is down and if we look at revenues of course it has been a growth story with the recent DEC line but if you look at things before let's say the pandemic boom then we can see that the trend is of continuous growth and it will likely grow alongside the markets Sports growth plus it is a great brand maybe these were exuberant profits but if you again look it from a lower level for we are now at 5 5.3 billion the trajectory is there and it could be very likely that this is something temporary in the meantime they're repurchasing stocks they are paying that dividend and that should drive the long-term Returns the long-term debt for a brand like Nike is actually down and not that relevant so yes margins are getting squeezed a little bit that leads to lower operating margins this were really extraordinary times but the normalization is something we have to look for and then also value the company in a more Norm normal environment let's look at the conference call because there you can see what the analysts are asking and what the management is saying the last conference call there was a change in CEO so there is no CEO at the call but they have cancel their guidance and that is always a shock for the market something that sends the stock lower it is about also knowing what will happen next they went down 10% they said the next part of the year should should be better but if it isn't better then there will be another hit on the stock price but they have canceled guidance so we'll have to wait and see what happens there this is from the previous guidance down mid single digits with first half down high single digits which is now at 10% and then should be better in the second part of the year we'll see whether this will happen but there is a clear shift also in strategy in a previous video that I made on Nike the conference call mentioned air and Air Jordan and air this and air do 47 times in the last conference call air is mentioned just five times they are yes working on Innovation but maybe the air brand isn't selling as good so they are now focused on Innovation Innovation and they say that takes time to transition they are trying to bring a new new dimension to these Classics and they say they have created a large amount of consumer demand but revenues are down 10% and I just watched a nice video from Casey nce that do hard things he run a marathon under three hours and this is what he used to do that that's a Brooks Shoes who owns Brooks birkshire had toway Fruit of the Looms Warren Buffett is also competing with Nikes I think the key risk here is okay Nike yes the brand is there but the competition is also there Brooks others running this and that there is so much money entering the apparel Market the shoes that one might question whether Nikes two three years ago boom will again replicate itself it's likely somewhere yes the stock will double as soon as you have four quarters of beating expectations then that's maybe also what bacman is playing he's not yet discussing why he bought it we'll have to wait for that don't worry tomorrow there will be Brookfield Corporation let's put Nike into our valuation quadrant we have five sixish billion in net income that's the p ratio there around 20 the market cap I think that if Nike continues to grow with the market that's already 4 5% plus 3% growth still a little bit of headwinds or some something like that but we are at six very conservative 78% growth rate and that's exactly maybe what bill lman is investing in I have put now here Nike perhaps it should go a little bit here let's say much better than the rest of the market and much better than the very expensive stuff on the market so bacman is positioning here if it gets priced again like the market that could be a 2x on improved fundamentals so yes much better than the market and if you buy Great American businesses it's hard to not buy Nike now at this moment in the cycle the risks are of course there if the downtrend continues but the Dr Trend compared to the last two years that were booming the long-term underlying Trend will likely show for more growth as people buy more shoes there will always be ups and downs and we'll see how Nike deals with it but the cash flows are already there now tomorrow Brookfield