저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁이 악화되며 미국·이스라엘·이란의 입장이 엇갈리고 있고, 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 위협으로 유가가 약 90달러대에 머무는 상황이다. IEA의 4억 배럴 비축유 방출은 대부분 선반영됐다는 견해다. 시장은 트럼프 발언에 과도하게 반응하며 하락 위험이 있고, 점심 무렵 다시 하락 전환을 예상한다. 단기 매매는 익절 후 빠른 이탈을 권하며, 오라클은 밸류에이션·모멘텀 측면에서 긍정적으로 본다.
다듬은 글
Okay, we need to talk because there are three sides to this war in Iran and they're all giving us conflicting information. . First, you need to understand that Donald Trump just reiterated this morning that there's practically nothing left to target in Iran and he says he can end the war at any time.
This comes right after Iran was laying mines in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz yesterday and it comes right after Bibi is expanding his targets to actively achieve regime change in Iran. Now, I want to tell you about the difference between what Trump is saying, what Israel is saying, and what's actually happening.
But, I want to give a quick shout out to Cliff. Shout out to Cliff, shout a course member this morning who ended up with a 300% gain on a call option thanks to this morning's Alpha report. If you haven't joined the Alpha report yet, remember you get short-term technical trade ideas, you get medium-term ideas, and long-term 10-plus year fundamental analysis.
So, we've got something for every type of investor in stocks. Just remember you could join using coupon code "too big to rig" over at meetkevin.com. Coupon expires next Wednesday. So, let's get into some facts here. So, Donald Trump says there's practically nothing left to target. This is coming at the same time as Israel is expanding their targets and it comes literally a day after the US ended up sinking nine of those Iranian mine layers in the Strait of Hormuz.
This is because Iran says they're moving from retaliation against Israel to strike after strike policies. That's a quote, "strike after strike policies" to continue pressuring the global economy in the Strait of Hormuz, uh which not only enables Iranian oil to flow to China, which is flowing to China more than ever, but it also puts pressure on all the oil refineries in the Gulf.
Now, this isn't great because that's where most of the oil is produced. That's because over here on the left side, which would be the west side over here, you have a lot of mountainous terrain that makes it very difficult to get from the sands or the oil fields out to the sea or the Red Sea over here.
Uh now, on the right, you have relatively flat land, which makes it easy to export oil from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, whatever, Oman over here, uh into the Persian Gulf. Not for Oman, though. They can just go straight out to the Arabian Sea. Uh into the Persian Gulf, out through the Strait of Hormuz, which remember is only the width over here of a Midtown Manhattan, uh and then out to the international markets.
Iran is enabling, which is right here, uh it it controls this coast. Iran is essentially enabling the free flow of its own oil out to China as well as goods from China into Iran and the region because they're a big ally. Obviously, every other ship is getting stopped. So, what did we just have? Well, we just had mine layers in the strait right here.
Nine of them get destroyed, but it shows you that Iran is actively trying to escalate this war even by changing their strategies. Now, another thing that they're doing with drones, just look it by the way where Iran is. Iran has this entire coast over here all the way from the edge of Kuwait almost the edge of Kuwait over here because you've got a little strip of Iraq in between.
Uh but, they've got this entire coast going out uh across along the entire Persian Gulf, well, this side of it at least, uh and then out the Gulf of Oman. So, they have a lot of opportunity here to strike. Uh you know, if you actually compare the size of Israel to the size of Iran, I mean, it's it's it's there's no comparison.
Iran is actually quite huge, uh and Kuwait is tiny, the UAE is tiny relative to these. You've actually even got now uh, a section of um, Somalia that has broken away into Somaliland that Israel is now trying to build a base in. So, Israel all the way over here is trying to build a base over here, uh, roughly where Somaliland is, to which again is the breakaway region of Somalia, to try to attack the Houthis in Yemen.
So, you've actually got this expanding operation. Here's the outline of Somaliland, by the way. You've got this expanding operation from the Israelis where they're trying to put more of their prongs out into the world to to launch attacks. At the same time, Iran is getting more creative with their attacks.
For example, one thing that they're doing is even though their their drone and missile attacks are down between 83 to 93% which we saw over the last few days, uh, compared to the beginning volleys or retaliatory volleys, what they're doing now is they're taking about sets of 20 drones buried well beneath the surface of the earth.
They're coming to the surface, quickly launching them, getting back underground, which they can do way faster than uh, you know, American and Israeli uh, warplanes can take these down. And these 20 drones are often enough not to overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome, but rather to overwhelm the defenses that Kuwait has or the UAE has or Saudi Arabia has because they don't have an Iron Dome.
You know, they've got some American parked Patriot battery systems and then of course we've got carriers in the region to launch uh, you know, warplanes to try to take these down or even use Apache helicopters to basically gun these drones down. But 20 per attack is a good set of equipment. Makes it a little harder and that's why Iran is having so much success in the region because they're really amplifying their mosaic style leadership where they launch these little attacks from random places.
And it's a sign that Iran is not anywhere close to giving up. Problem is, Bibi speaks to Donald Trump from from Israel. Speaks to Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and for some reason Jared Kushner on a nearly daily basis. Sometimes more than daily. This is per the Wall Street Journal. Israel is trying to force regime change in Iran.
And as a result, what they're doing is they're broadening targets and they're actually starting to piss off Donald Trump. So, on one hand you have Donald Trump going, "Oh, you know, we can end this war at any time." Israel's going, "We're striking more targets than ever before because we're going to get regime change.
We're not happy that, you know, they just chose the new Ayatollah. That's just the son of the last guy, and this guy might be even worse than the last guy." That's always a problem when you chop off the head, the new head that comes back might be even worse than the last one. And this is why Israel wants to keep attacking.
Marco Rubio might be okay with just a setback to the missile and nuclear program, but then you have Donald Trump who says he's not happy with Israel because they need to ask Donald Trump permission for targeting Iranian oil infrastructure or expanding and broadening their targets. So, you really have three parts of this weird triangle here.
On one hand, you have Israel who's like, "We're going all in, baby. Like this is it. We're going for regime change." Well, so far regime change isn't going well. Regime change is getting worse, not better. Now you've got Donald Trump mad at Israel for expanding their targets. Then you got Donald Trump trying to pump the markets saying, "Oh, boys and girls, uh I can end this war at any time.
We're almost done. There's nothing left to strike." And Israel's like, "Whatever, man. We got plenty left to strike." And then Iran's like, "Strike what you want." I don't know why that that accent, but anyway, Iran's like, "Strike what you want. We got plenty more, and we're not giving up. If anything, we're going to get more creative with where we screw you." And this is why we're starting to see freight and container ships getting attacked and bombed and rocketed in the strait.
I remember that coast that Iran has? It's a problem. Now, Donald Trump yesterday, his energy secretary, Mr. Chris Wright, yesterday suggested that the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. This actually briefly led to a fall in oil all the way down to $82.39. Stocks also jumped.
However, within minutes that tweet was deleted. And then the US military said, "No, we are not escorting commercial ships uh ships. That was incorrectly captioned by staff." So, somebody just made a whole lot of money on not only a rebound in oil while I mean a plummet in oil. So, but somebody made a whole bunch of money shorting down uh and then minutes later, probably after the shorts were closed, that tweet was deleted.
Now, call me jaded for thinking that there's insider trading related to this, but that's one hell of a mistake to tweet and then delete. But whatever. Anyway, Iran currently says that ceasefire talks are off the table. Saudi Aramco CEO says that there are catastrophic consequences for oil markets uh the longer this disruption to energy flows.
Uh David Woo, an economist, says that the market is overestimating that Donald Trump is going to taco and end this war, which suggests that there is downside for the market. I actually believe that towards lunch, we're probably going negative again, but that's just an opinion that I have. Usually we Look, between between you and me, okay?
Don't tell anyone because this is some of the stuff we do in the alpha. Lately there's been a trend, okay? You get the retail dip buying at the beginning of the day, okay? Everybody's uh Everybody's got their coffee. Everybody's excited to trade in the morning, okay? Then you get the little rocket ship.
You get the little 300% on your call options and stuff. You need to take your tendies off the table really fast because then people go to work and they're like, all right. And then bad news starts coming out. It's risky. It's risky these days to hold them long. So, you get in and you get out. That's some of the stuff we talk about in the Alpha report on basically, well, I mean, almost a daily basis.
I mean, unless I'm sick. I think my up time on our course member live streams like 99% every day the market is open. So, if you want to be part of all those live streams and the analysis we do, uh it's I think it's really good. I mean, we really go through the actual 10Ks, the 10Qs, the earnings calls of these companies on a daily basis.
So, if you're into it for fundamentals or short-term trades, we do both. And we we use signals from fundies in trading and signals in trading for fundies because sometimes even a really good stock is overpriced on a technical basis because it's memed, right? So, you kind of have to use both. Anyway, uh the IEA, the International Energy Agency, it did authorize a 400 billion 400 million barrel release, 400 million.
They only have 1.2 billion. That is nearly the twice the historical or larger than twice the historical that they released of 182 as the previous high. All 32 nations agreed unanimously to this release. It's probably mostly priced in. We're teetering right around 90 bucks a barrel right now. Uh and uh you know, we we briefly fell to 89 on the international blend.
We're back at about $91 here. Watch oil, that's going to dictate which way the market moves as well. Iran's ability to make more 136 Shahed drones or Shahed 136 drones has also been reduced per Bloomberg but not eliminated. They're still able to produce more of these drones, which is not great. Uh and uh and then just sort of as a side note, in other news, JP Morgan did just mark down some of its private credit funds.
Apollo is moving to doing daily reporting in private credit because there's so much private credit fear, uh which is one of the reasons you're seeing Owl absolutely collapse. If you jump in over here, you can see Owl down now under 920 per share, which is wild. Uh and then I have to give credit where credit is due to Oracle.
Even though Oracle couldn't hold its rally this morning, which again is not uncommon because of how people are trading, something that watch with Oracle is I have to give them a big green flag on momentum and valuation. They right now are trading for a 0.79 PEG. They are uh finally bouncing off on a weekly basis of oversold on the weekly uh on RSI.
The last time this happened, the stock absolutely skyrocketed from 126 to 344. Now, I'm not calling for that kind of reversal, but this is a this is the first green weekly candle that we're getting over here, and we're getting that reversal on momentum. So, green flag on momentum, green flag on valuation at 0.79 on the PEG.
But, you've got some yellow flags on pricing power and long-term debt. They did fix their short-term balance sheet issues though. That's just a quick little other free sample of some of the analysis that we do uh in the uh Alpha report over at mekevin.com. Uh remember, you can join that before next Wednesday.
Coupon code "too big to rig." If you are into real estate, you could also check out our real estate software at househackr.com, which will have the same coupon expiration. Thank you so very much for watching. Goodbye and go luck. Why not advertise .
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