저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁 확전으로 호르무즈 해협이 사실상 봉쇄 상태이며 유가가 최대 150달러까지 갈 수 있다는 시나리오가 제기됨. 그러나 옵션 시장은 고가 행사가를 거의 베팅하지 않아 그 수준 도달에 낮은 기대를 보임. IEA의 4억 배럴 비축유 방출 논의는 이미 가격에 반영됐다고 봄. 고용지표(ADP 주간 +1.55만)는 긍정적이며 CNN 공포탐욕지수는 공포 구간으로 반등. Rabobank 최악 시나리오에서도 2026년 침체는 피하고 GDP가 2027년 회복한다는 전망 인용. 마이크로소프트 밸류에이션은 저점권으로 평가하며 매도 추천 기관이 없다고 언급.
다듬은 글
It's March 10th, here's your update on Iran. 20 countries are now involved in the war. This is the closest we have been to World War in decades, frankly since the Cold War. Iran has struck now at least at 10 countries, obviously targeting a lot of oil infrastructure and refining. Iran has effectively closed says that he might speculating that if Donald Trump moves American Navy into this strait, which is so tight, it is only the width of Midtown Manhattan, which is not a lot.
A lot of people believe that any US Navy in that strait would end up being sitting ducks or like shooting fish in a barrel. The reason for that is the Iranians and Iranian proxies have Chinese and Russian anti-ship missiles and weapons and artillery. Uh and even though we have defenses, this is so dang close to land, it might not work out well for our Navy and that's probably why we haven't actually done it yet, even though Donald Trump is hinting at it.
Anyway, keeping this strait shut for 3 more weeks, given that it is practically shut now, some expect, per Bloomberg, could lead oil to rise to about $150 per barrel for oil. Goldman Sachs calls that level of oil prices recessionary, though I personally don't think we're seeing that based on what we're seeing in options chain data.
Uh I'll go ahead and show you some of the option data that we're seeing just so you can get a glance at some of this underlying here. Take a look at this. Open interest in call options on Brent crude. While it is true that right now call options have the highest premium that we've seen in the last 6 years on oil.
So people buying calls versus puts, the premiums we're seeing on these are levels that we have not seen in over 6 years. But, even with that said, for premiums, if you actually look at the strike prices people are picking, very few are actually picking strike prices in this 120, 130, 140, 150 range.
In fact, it really drops off a cliff after 120. And so, most of the call options have really either been in the money or right around this 90 to 100 to 80 and 70 dollar range over here. So, really a low anticipation that we're going to make it to this high level based on what the options market is seeing now.
Now, some of that could have to do with IEA and the G7, which we'll talk about in just a moment, but I I do want to say while Donald Trump is optimistic about a de-escalation here, Pete Hegseth is suggesting that today will be the strongest day of strikes yet. The Pentagon says the war will not end until the enemy is defeated.
France is sending its aircraft carrier to the eastern side of the Mediterranean. Uh Germany's foreign minister says that the capital of Iran, Tehran, that's sort of like saying Washington, right? So, Iran is not ready for a diplomatic solution. A German Germany's foreign minister says that if uh they were ready for a diplomatic solution, it would be achievable.
We'd be able to work something out because Israel is ready. Israel's foreign minister does also then come out and indicate that this fight will continue until the minute we and our partners think it is appropriate to stop. And we will end the war when the time is right. Which is exactly what we heard them say during the Gaza operation, which ended up lasting 2 years.
And this is why there are some concerns that Donald Trump is suggesting, "Hey, we're just going to you know, we'll stop at any point, but you know, we'll stop when Israel and Bibi are ready to stop." Mhm. That might not be anytime soon, which is obviously the downside risk scenario, which we're going to go through some of those as well in just a moment.
But, first, Iran's intelligence ministry suggests that they have arrested 30 spies, mercenaries, and agents of Israel in the last few days. They also indicate that they're absolutely not seeking a ceasefire and uh Iran's parliament the speaker of the parliament just said that if the enemy so the United States and Israel end up launching any war or attacks on infrastructure then Tehran will do the same.
But that's interesting because Tehran is already attacking infrastructure of countries that have not even attacked them. Anyway, the I don't know how much this actually matters but it's worth noting that British Airways is canceling all flights to and from Abu Dhabi towards the region until quote later this year which later this year I guess theoretically could be tomorrow but it and I don't necessarily think that British Airways has some kind of intelligence that you know our our military and leaders don't have but who who knows.
British Airways saying we're done. We're out until the war basically ends. And to me that that doesn't seem like something you do if you're just expecting sort of a short-term pause. Seems like an odd statement to make but who knows. It's an airline. G7 so the G7 is meeting with the International Energy Agency that's called the IEA.
Now the IEA actually coordinates the releasing of any of the 1.2 billion barrels across the 32 member states of oil that are held in a strategic reserve. There's been talk about releasing 400 million barrels of oil that covers about 100% of the world's oil needs for four days and if oil production is down 20% globally then it really covers 20 days right five times as much.
The IEA is meeting in Paris today. They're discussing all available options and they you know I mean in my opinion any of this 400 million barrel release is probably already priced in because that's frankly in my opinion why we saw that plummet Monday or Sunday night from Sunday night Monday morning from 117 bucks per barrel of oil all the way back down to $90 especially following Donald Trump's comments.
So some of that's probably already priced in, especially since the UAE just shut down their largest refinery. They just completely said done. Like, not a reduction in production. They're like, shut it down. We are not going to have any oil running through our lines. And it somewhat makes sense because the way you kind of think about it is like, what's the difference between turning the valve down a little bit, but then you still have flammable oil operating throughout your entire refinery.
And then the concern is if a drone strikes a portion of it, then you know, the whole thing catches on fire, right? Whereas if it's all off and dry and secured, a drone hits a pipe that doesn't have oil in it, okay. You've got a localized explosion that then you can solve. The explosion is limited really to the fuel that and and and munitions that are carried by the drone.
That is substantially different than igniting an entire refinery, right? Anyway, we talked about oil prices on options. It's worth noting that the European Union, they're getting hit the worst here because, you know, they also scaled back on nuclear power, which is really dumb, including Germany. Very dumb.
These are Germans. Why would they make such a stupid decision? This just makes no sense. ExxonMobil is now evacuating their non-essential workers from the Middle East. Also doesn't make it sound very temporary. Strait of Hormuz, we talked about it is essentially closed. The good news though is we did get some decent data this morning on jobs.
We got economically ADP jobs data in at 15.5 thousand for the week. That is fantastic. That works out to a little over 62,000 on a monthly basis depending on how you calculate it. Uh uh that's great. It kind of makes me wonder if that Bureau of Labor Statistics data we got for February was just sort of following a really hot January.
If we sort of average it out, it's still crappy, but it's not as bad as like negative 92,000, right? So, hopefully, uh you know, we we can just regain on the path of recovering on the jobs market and we can be bullish. Unlike JP Morgan who says last week was just derisking, not capitulation, and that they are tactically bearish because they probably expect some form of capitulation to actually take place.
CNN's greed and fear index, people always hate it when I say the word CNN, but I mean they are the ones that do the screen and fear index, has actually rebounded to the fear level. This obviously comes after Donald Trump's comments yesterday regarding enthusiasm for ending the war sooner, though we're really not seeing broader impact or like broader indications of that from either Iran or Israel.
So, some of that could be short-term false hope. I do hope that it's long-term hope and I love that I can combine this with the ADP data that we're seeing, which suggests we, you know, we could potentially be bullish. Now, another thing that is actually bullish is Rabobank's scenarios for the worst-case scenario here with oil going, you know, up to 120 to 150.
They go through multiple different scenarios and basically a bottom line for them is that CPI inflation, non-core, right? So, headline inflation, could actually rise to nearly 6% in 2026, which obviously, you know, would more than double CPI and would would lead a lot of people to think that we're going to need rate hikes.
GDP growth would would fall to 1.2% but they actually think that we would not hit a recession this year and we would actually rebound on GDP by 2027 and even if inflation hits 5.8 this year, they think it would fall to 2.5 by next year and actually down to 1.6 by 2028 while GDP would recover to 2 and 1/2%.
So, in their worst-case scenario, you still do not have a recessionary impetus, which is great. I mean, this morning in the course member live streams, which, remember, if you're not part of those, you get the Alpha Report every morning over at mekevin.com, we talked about American Express. And well, we talked about American Express, we talked about Restoration Hardware, we talked about quite a few stocks actually.
We talked about Core Weave a little bit. We talked about real estate. We know we do fundamental deep dive analysis on these. Yeah, also Hims & Hers. You know, we've got a specific directional call on this particular stock. But one of the things that we observed in addition to what's going on with Microsoft, I should mention what's going on over here.
But one of the things we observed in just the commentary from American Express, which represents a higher income consumer, is that the higher income consumer is still doing fantastic. And delinquency rates are actually falling even though the pricing power over at American Express is declining. Its valuation isn't too extreme, but neither is Microsoft's.
I mean, look at Microsoft. Microsoft's valuation is sitting at a 3 to 5-year low depending on, you know, where you want to track it to. But you can take this all the way back to COVID levels relative to the S&P 500 or the launch of GPT. Just pretty remarkable Microsoft has been so cheap. And there is not a single institution that has a sell rating on Microsoft right now.
Pretty remarkable. So anyway, with that said, make sure to go to meetkevin.com, use day the market is open. You could probably write these courses off on your taxes. And remember, it's not just all of the courses that you get. It's working with me on a daily basis analyzing stocks, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, setting up trades for the day whether you're looking for short-term, medium-term, long-term.
We do it all together. And we've got this coupon expiring toobigtorig on Wednesday, March 18th. That is a Fed day. We've got the reinvest course, the stocks and psychology of money course, the zero to millionaire real estate investing course, the sales course, the property management and rental renovation scores, the YouTube and social media course, the productivity and getting sh 19 done faster course, and dropanomics from 2025 with the updates in 2026 out in that reinvest course for 2026.
So really, really good uh programs here. Check them out over at meetkevin.com and you can join us daily uh for our Alpha report. .
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