저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 신임 최고지도자 선출과 유가 급등(WTI·브렌트 약 $108)으로 선물이 급락했다고 진단. 사우디 주재 미국 대사관 철수 명령, 지상군(특수부대) 투입 가능성, 농축우라늄 450kg 문제를 언급하며 지정학 리스크가 지속될 수 있다고 봄. 골드만은 20% 약세장보다 10% 조정 가능성을 높게 봄. 3월 CPI·PCE 등 인플레 지표가 연준의 금리인하 여지를 좌우하며, 영국은행도 에너지 쇼크를 무시하기 어렵다는 입장으로 해석. 특정 종목(인튜이트 반등 기대, 샌디스크 하락 추세)에 대한 언급이 있음.
다듬은 글
Man, if futures are selling off, and now Donald Trump says the end of this war will only come with a mutual decision with Bibi of Israel. Damn. You know, I think Donald Trump would be more likely to end the war sooner, but Bibi, based on how long Gaza took, oh man, this is bad. Hey everyone, it's Kevin here.
A lot of people are wondering why are futures tanking? It's a Sunday evening on March 8th, and the market is selling off in an extreme manner. All of this has, of course, to do with oil and the election or selection of a new supreme leader in Iran. Let me explain why both of these are bad. And of course, it all starts with the supreme leader that was chosen.
But first, I haven't seen moves in oil like this in a while. Look at this. This is on CNBC. We've got a 17% increase in the international blend of a crude oil. We have a 19% increase in the western blend of WTI. That's the western blend of oil. Both sitting at $108 per barrel now, which is extreme given that we just hit $90 on Friday.
Now, you'd think people would flee to gold and silver, but no, ever since Kevin Warsh on January 30th, his selection, and then of course, a couple days thereafter, we have seen gold and silver hit their top. We did call that on the channel, and it's I mean, we haven't been able to get anywhere close to a top again since then.
Of course, Bitcoin sliding down as well at 66. And the pre-market is pretty ugly right now. Nasdaq futures down 222. That's 2.22%. S&P down 183. Dow down 183. So, let's analyze what's going on. Why is this happening? Well, part of the reason is that started the surge in oil has everything to do with the son of Khamenei being chosen as the supreme leader.
Now, he is not only believed to follow his father's views, but Donald Trump has also called his selection unacceptable. Mind you, when they were going to elect a new supreme leader, the Israelis ended up bombing that meeting. We're not sure how many of the clerics that were electing a new supreme leader were killed in that bombing, but they've since decided, "Fine then, we'll just choose somebody even more extreme than the previous Ayatollah." Now, we have the son, who again is deemed to be more extreme.
Now, you have to understand a little bit about the father to understand why this new person is considered more extreme, and why therefore we're seeing oil move the way it is, because it was just Friday that we heard JP Morgan say, "Hey, most of the damage to oil prices is in, and it shouldn't get much worse from here." And then, of course, the very next trading day, when it comes to well, at least to futures trading, we're up 19% on oil, which clearly indicated there was a lot more damage that could happen.
I'm also getting a heads-up over here. It looks like from Reuters coming across right now that the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia has been ordered evacuated. All non-emergency employees and government employee family members to leave Saudi Arabia due to security risk. It's actually the first time we've seen embassies in the surrounding region be called for evacuation in quite a long time.
Certainly the first time in this conflict. So, somewhat implies that things are somewhat worsening, especially since Donald Trump has also now suggested the potential of boots on the ground. Although these would be considered special forces on the ground, so some people say special forces are more strategic and surgical.
You kind of go in and out, and therefore they're like boots temporarily on the ground, and not permanently on the ground. But, we'll talk about that boots on the ground comment in a moment. Let's get back to the the father who was killed in the first wave of this attack, Khamenei. And and then, of course, we'll be be to compare to the son.
So, the father, he he's been a Shia cleric and he has served as supreme leader since 1989. Remember that he was also the president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. And he became the president after the Iranian revolution of 17 or sorry, 1978 to 1979. He has regularly supported Iran's nuclear ambitions and he is of course an ally or was an ally with North Korea, Russia, and China.
All of them have nuclear weapons, which of course have supported the Iranians ambitions for nuclear weapons as well. So, everybody in the posse could have nukes. Notice how the United States doesn't directly attack North Korea, Russia, or China. They all have nukes and Iran knows this and this is why they want nukes.
Now, a lot of people get mad and say, "Oh, you know, we heard this in Iraq. Yeah, Iraq's got nukes." One thing that you have to remember not just that, you know, the father came out of revolution, which means you could get someone more extreme out of a revolution here. But, right now we don't even have a revolution, we're just literally getting the selection of somebody more extreme, which is lot not ideal as well.
But, what you have to remember is the IMF as of last May before we bombed Fordow and Natanz in in Iran, the nuclear enrichment facilities. The International International Monetary Fund, the United Nations weapons inspectors. The United I'm thinking too much of Christine Lagarde here and Jerome Powell.
It's all I can think of is central banks. But, anyway, the United Nations weapon inspectors had actively conducted many inspections and repeated inspections of the uranium stockpile that the Iranians have had. And they have calculated that the Iranians have around 460 kg of highly enriched uranium enriched to about 60%.
Now, it would take a few more weeks of centrifugal processes to get this enriched all all up to weapons grade, but you can produce quite a set of nuclear weapons with this highly enriched uranium. So, we don't know and there has been no evidence that there's been further enriching of this highly enriched uranium, but we we know with certainty, at least as much as we can believe the United Nations, that they have about 450 kg in in barrels of radioactive material.
And this is highly enriched uranium, which could end up turning into weapons-grade uranium with with some further refinement. Again, no evidence that there has been further refinement, but Donald Trump and the Israelis have decided that negotiations didn't go in their way or maybe they moved goal posts or maybe the intention was once they had their flotilla built up, they would attack anyway.
And so now the intention has been destroy the Iranian Navy. We've used the first torpedoes since World War and destroy as much of the Iranian military as possible. Unfortunately, this is not exactly the easiest thing to do because the Iranian military, you know, it' is just one portion of the Iranians military capabilities of maybe 150,000 soldiers.
You also have what's called the Basij and I might be mispronouncing that, the b a s i j. And this is really a militia that could be activated to the tune of 11 million Iranians all throughout Iran. And this is where these individuals as well as the IRGC are trained in not only guerrilla warfare, but suburban combat.
That makes it really difficult even for special forces to go in because you just don't know if everybody around you is potentially part of the militia. You have threats everywhere you go inside of Iran. And there has not been a very strong unified opposition against the current Iranian Revolutionary Guard or the leadership such as the common A cult.
Now, the reason I say that is because you can't really just kill one person and expect the Iranian country to collapse. Iran's military leaders themselves have already been designed to operate in sort of a patchwork mosaic, they call it, where they can all make their own decisions wherever they are.
They don't need a central leadership designed to conduct strikes against even allies in the region just to disrupt oil production. And that's really what's happening here is you've got potentially a more extreme supreme leader now, and more oil disruption in the area. And a lot of what we're seeing now is thanks to foreign selling.
So, this pain that we're seeing in markets right now, a lot of it is expected to be due to foreign selling. In fact, take a look at this. Goldman Sachs wrote that foreigners foreign institu- foreign institutional investors have been major net sellers here recently since the attacks. And these have really contributed to the sell-down that we're seeing in markets.
But let's go back for a moment to the history of this original Iranian nuclear ambition under Khomeini. Allegedly, he only wanted peaceful purposes for nuclear enrichment. However, he eventually ended up supporting Russia against Ukraine. He supported the resistance to Israel's war in Gaza. Then he called for the destruction of Israel.
Power then was consolidated under him, especially with the IRGC. And then ultimately, he called for death to America and death to Israel. The problem here is not the father dying, it's that now you potentially have the son who's deemed to be even more extreme and more conservative than this. And this is already pretty hardline.
So, it's likely that if we haven't attacked Pickaxe Mountain yet, and Pickaxe Mountain potentially is where we may have tracked the 450 kg of highly enriched uranium to. It that may be because we are preparing to send special forces to go extract that uranium out of Pickaxe Mountain, and uh the, you know, uh special forces are hoping to get that uranium intact.
Uh at least that's what it appears now is right now we're focusing on taking down Iranian drones, ballistic missiles, uh and then of course the launching sites for these, the warehouses for these, the manufacturing sites for these, uh you know, Guard leaders, and so on. So, what you really have is a combination today.
You've got a combination of this election of a more extreme supreme leader plus Donald Trump uh implying that boots on the ground could be a possibility. Again, temporary boots because they'd be special forces, but those are still boots on the ground. Uh now, per Axios, Donald Trump says that wouldn't be soon, that would be uh at a later stage in the war, and that uh we'd likely be looking at raids on nuclear sites uh to again find that highly enriched uranium.
Donald Trump says this would only occur for a quote very good reason, and if we ever did, the Iranians quote would be so decimated that they wouldn't be able to fight on the ground anyway. Again, that's what Donald Trump says, but the problem with that assumption is I think Donald Trump might be missing the Basij, which uh again is that militia that is really spread throughout all of Iran.
And without a united opposition force, it's really hard to argue that this militia won't end up being activated, which is problematic. Now, if we actually go look at some stocks for a moment, I do want to point out that uh Intuit has done exceptionally well here uh off of the rebound coming off of 349.
I actually think any uh discount even off of this level at 468 uh is is just a bargain. I think this is a great opportunity. It got caught up in the software sell-off, and I think that's massively overblown for a company that's winning big here. Uh in the Meet Kevin membership, I have been calling for stop trailing stops as soon as possible once we hit this high 600s.
So, when we were over here at about 630, I started calling for trailing stops on SanDisk and it looks like SanDisk is now going to open up under 500. So, this one's really started to sell-off and and that is likely to continue as it is. A commoditized product that is going through a bit of a supercycle right now.
But, I do actually think that there are going to be plenty of opportunities that this sort of sell-off creates. And usually what happens is once we get a sell-off like this, I mean, we'll be down at 586 if we hold this, we'll have lost the 595 line. I wouldn't be surprised if we actually recover a lot of this tomorrow.
This does seem like an aggressive sell-off and I think a lot of it is driven by foreigners. Overall, the economy so far, obviously the labor data are not great, but somewhat holding up. Retail sales are down on an annualized basis take the last 3 months and annualize them out per Goldman Sachs by about 0.9% going back to January.
So, there's some softness there. Underlying job growth is per Goldman Sachs only about 37,000 right now with break-evens likely around 60 to 70,000 per Goldman, which suggests that there is a higher risk in the economy that just happens to be coinciding with this oil price shock we're seeing now, which isn't great, obviously.
Now, Goldman still thinks that the odds are we're more likely to see a correction in the market rather than some form of uh you know, 20% bear market decline. So, maybe a 10% correction on indices levels, which I don't think we're too far off on the Nasdaq. I mean, 637, if I take 10% off of that, we'd be down at 573 and futures right now pointed at 585.
So, uh 573 / 585, you know, we're we're we're another If we hold this 2% down today and then we're down, let's say, 2% more tomorrow, we'll be at 10% down on the Nasdaq. So, we'll be there. Overall, I do think we have some data to pay attention to this week that could let us know how, you know, the Federal Reserve might be able to respond to support our economy.
And I want to give you those catalysts because I think those are going to be very important to pay attention to. If you have not also yet considered, do check out We did this because of the BLS labor report. We've created this coupon called too big to rig. And we're going to expire this next Friday on March 18th.
And we're calling it too big to rig because the numbers are just too big to rig in terms of like the loss of what we had on that labor report. But anyway, remember , that strategy we go through in the morning, all the courses. Might even be a tax write-off for you. A lot of people write it off. Get a head start to your wealth, diversification, debt trading, finance for your children, entities, insurance, liability protection, real estate investing, sales and negotiating, property management.
You name it. Utilizing AI, Trumpanomics, wealth plan library. We got a lot of content in there. You get that all for one price. And go use that coupon code too big to rig. Okay, let's go jump now into a little bit more. And I think what we have to look at when it comes to catalysts that we have inflation catalysts coming up this week in the United States.
We've got the weekly employment change on Tuesday at 5:15 a.m. We'll be covering that. Then on the 11th, which is Wednesday, we'll have CPI month over month expected to be 0.3, core 0.2. And a lot of that data will likely have been collected before the war broke out. Then we will be looking for PCE on Friday.
Actually, is that Friday the 13th? Yes, it is. Friday the 13th is when we'll have that PCE. And then of course, we'll be looking for some older Q4 GDP secondary estimates. Those will come out on Friday with the University of Michigan as well, but not so terribly important there. So, usually the sentiment doesn't really move markets, but inflation could because it'll show us how much more is the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place.
And we think that the Federal Reserve is pretty dang stuck right now at least until inflation comes down. We also already have the Bank of England indicating that let's see here. Let me pull it up really quick. Uh Oh yeah, here it is. Okay. The Bank of England is indicating that they are unsure that they can basically look through the inflation of yet another energy shock.
Which somewhat implies that higher for longer aggressiveness. Basically saying, "Hey look, it's been too many times that we're starting to call inflationary impetus is like tariffs or Russia-Ukraine or whatever." There've been too many times where like "Oh, we'll just look past this. It's going to be transitory." The Bank of England is starting to go, "We we can't look past this." If the United States coordinates with them and also says that, you know, we could really take rate cuts off the table this year.
And unfortunately, that that could lead to some more pain in markets in the near term. So out the alpha membership. And then if you want if you are a real estate investor, if you have not yet checked out our real estate AI, we just updated our website with exactly what you get. So go check it out at reinvest.co or househack.com.
It's the same company. But you could see our deal spotter artificial intelligence. Right now it is a vision based only and the valuation AI comes out hopefully I mean it's certainly in the second quarter, but I'm hoping you know April May so earlier part of the quarter. We'll see. But the whole point of that is so that when you go look for real estate, you could actually sort by how much a property is going to potentially increase your net worth when you go buy it.
So that way you're no longer looking at deals based on what they just look like, but rather you're looking going oh look here's one that'll give me $74,000 in equity after fix up. This will give me 100 grand in equity after fix up. You know this one will give me 20 grand negative 20 grand in equity after I fix it up.
That's a bad deal, right? So we're really excited about this product and we develop and work on developing this every single day. So look forward to having you here. You can get lifetime access to this now. Once all the features are out, we'll be getting rid of the lifetime access. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you soon .
Comments 0