저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체와 인플레이션 정점 논쟁을 다룬다. 2022년 상반기 GDP 나우 기준 마이너스 성장, 장단기 금리 역전, VIX 콜옵션 급증을 침체 신호로 제시한다. 반면 원자재 가격 하락과 5년 브레이크이븐 하락으로 인플레이션 정점 가능성을 언급하며, 연준 긴축 완화 시 주식 상승을 전망한다. 테슬라를 전기차 선두로 평가하고 포드의 EV 수익성 악화를 지적한다. 강의 홍보와 제휴 광고가 다수 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
is the great reset upon us and has the great reset now been fully priced into the stock market let's talk about the great reset the stock market and what to expect going forward let's start first we are experiencing the greatest inflation that we have seen in the last 40 years with expectations that at least in the united states the peak has not been achieved yet in fact the next cpi data set for july is expected to come in even higher than that of june the same is true in markets around the world we are fighting substantial inflation to which central banks around the world more than 70 percent of them are raising interest rates quickly to tighten financial conditions compress the wealth of individuals so that finally they spend less money and hopefully inflation goes down because the worst thing for an economy is runaway inflation because it leads to the collapse of currencies well folks this is also compounded by the fact that individuals incomes because of high inflation is plummeting this is a chart of changes in real wages versus 2021.
we've got the united states marked in blue here you can see we're doing far better than the rest of the world where places like italy spain and greece are having substantially larger decreases in wages and so naturally it makes a lot of sense that misery throughout the world is rising substantially in fact if you take a look at the covid spike of misery right here we are slowly approaching those levels of misery again these are the misery indices for in white the united states in blue the united kingdom and in orange the eurozone but before we draw any conclusions i have to remind you to enjoy this slide here that suggests that more than 70 percent of those in the united states believe a recession will happen by the end of 2022 with another 9 so a total of 80 percent of individuals believing we'll see a recession between now and 2023 and this is where you want to make sure to take advantage of the data the atlanta fed provides to us take a look at this now updated as of today atlanta fed gdp now real gdp estimate for the second quarter of 2022 it provides that for the entire first half of the year we actually had negative gdp potentially this is not the official figure of negative 1.7 unfortunately a negative gdp for two quarters in a row or two sets of three months in a row in other words potentially the first half of 2022 implies that we already are in a technical recession the gdp now index has slightly moved up as you can see here from negative 2.1 percent to negative 1.9 with an average of a negative 1.7 percent read for the entire first half and folks unsurprisingly the bond market which often can predict what happens in markets and financial conditions is telling us that we're due for another recession see when this chart has a negative read as you can see it has right here a negative read which was once seen here again seen here and again seen here tends to come right before these red of vertical bars these red vertical bars represent recessions and folks take a look at this we have once again inverted in the spread between the two year and five-year treasury yields now you don't have to know exactly what that means just know that when this chart behaves this way it tends to precede a recession and that's why this chart is so important where you can get lifetime access to amazing fundamental analysis lowe's partnerships that pay for your membership q a every day the market is open buy sell alerts diversified m1 finance pies and locking in a price for life with a one-time payment when prices usually go up on average 50 to 100 per month folks if you use coupon code fireworks you can get 50 off before the next price increase you want to lock in that price because new content is regularly added and folks thank me so much that we regularly provide this lifetime access forum where you can communicate with other savvy investors and receive new lectures on a regular basis providing you the insights and information that you're looking for you are very likely to more than pay for the cost of joining and getting lifetime access within the next year alone if not even within the next few months and then you essentially have lifetime access for free so check out the coupon code make sure you join before the expiration of this coupon because prices will be going up again especially since we have a massive lecture set coming out tomorrow but folks the bond market tells us in multiple ways that a recession is around the corner i just showed you the spread between the two year and the five year well we also have a spread of the ten year versus the two year which is sometimes considered an even more reliable indicator of a recession coming when a two-year treasury yield is more expensive in the short term than a 10-year treasury yield we get an inverted curve and we had that here on april 1st we had that very briefly here for a few hours and take a look how deeply we have presently inverted the bond market is telling us a recession and a great reset is here and coming and so it's no surprise that in real estate we are seeing the number of homes with active price drops skyrocketing which is a prelude to actual reductions in sales prices and potentially negative real estate gains but we're also seeing investors in the stock market turn to hedges buying puts and taking up options on the vix the vix is known as the volatility or fear index and the more we see investors via this white line take up positions or bets on the vix the more investors are telling us we think more bad might be around the corner you could take a look at this chart here and you could see that we have seen the largest amount of purchasing of call options in the vix which means individuals are making a lot of bets that volatility and fear is about to skyrocket and they are doing so at the highest levels that we have seen since the covid panic folks that is a red flag that at least the institutional investors and hedge funds believe more pain is ahead after all we have not seen what's known as a cathartic flushout yet in the stock market this orange line set here represents spikes in the fear index it's inverted so the more it goes down the more fear there is in this case it's upside down right it's inverted and you can see these massive fear spikes once here during the dot-com era you could see the fierce spike here during the great recession you could see the beginning of the taper tantrum here the continuation of the taper tantrum slightly over here the covet pandemic a panic here and look at where we sit now really a massive lack of fear a lack of what folks are calling for which is that cathartic flush-out that says fear and capitulation is now at such a high level that now is potentially the time to buy but we haven't seen that yet however folks take a look at the logarithmic chart of the s p 500 going all the way back my friends to right here the great depression 1930.
what we see here is a lot of pain over time in various different cases you could see a 22 drop in 1.2 years here a 28 drop in six months a 22 drop in eight months a 36 drop in a year and a half 48 drop in a 1.8 years 27 drop in 1.8 years look at this one 36 down in two months folks we sit right here 25 down in five months and this logarithmic chart shows us that over time what happens folks stonks do this now that's not to say that this is the bottom of the market or that you should hop in with everything you have and it's time for yolo call options and it's time to get into margin no in fact i'm very proud to say that right now i have zero margin i'm completely out of margin and i recommend that you be completely out of margin as well because if we do get a capitulation panic and we do get a cathartic flush out you might not survive this line if we end up getting a deep spike over here to the downside and you're heavily margined you could get wiped out and the key in this market is to survive you want to be a survivor and folks what are people doing right now who potentially want to survive but are making bets on beating down stocks we'll take a look at this arc is seeing a burst of inflows here you can see the price of the arc etf has risen just recently and as this rise has occurred so has by the dipping in arc k this is the most consistent stretch of by the dipping that we have seen in the entire year you can see this by simply counting the bars four bars plus this little one here is actually a plus that's five bars this is eight bars of positive net inflows into arc that is the longest stretch that we have actually had since january where we had four bars in a row otherwise all the bars going down were net outflows so you can see that consistent by the dipping is happening right now and people are placing bets on innovation on sold off technology trades even warren buffett is buying the dip warren buffett is of course buying the dip in oscillator petroleum with now a total share count of over 17.6 ownership in the company but take a look at how warren buffett buys he buys when people are fearful he's greedy as they say when people are fearful and he actually does so sure he bought here on the rise at the beginning of the war but he bought the dip here he bought the dip here he bought the dip here he bought the dip just a few days ago warren buffett is buying individuals while some institutions are hedging individuals are buying innovation they're buying the future of america and it makes sense because what are we seeing we are seeing the highest fall in technologies and why is that folks it's because some folks are saying the end of june saw the highest amount of outflows of technology or money and technology funds and that maybe now is officially the time to go in and buy the dip then maybe the bottom is in in the way we're going to buy the bottom is we're going to buy while hedging for a volatility spike and why are people doing that why are people all of a sudden buying the dip well it's because we're finally actually starting to see some signs that maybe inflation could be transitory now that sounds very offensive to a lot of folks because the idea that inflation is transitory sounds like a hoax it sounds like a lie they told us that after the covet pandemic and the panic of covid that we might have some transitory reopening inflation first because of who remembers the phrase base effects where when we compare back to the prior year we compare into a hole the base effects tell us oh we should have high inflation but they also tell us that hey wait a minute not only do we have this but we have a reopening so people are going to spend money again as we reopen well this was the first potential sign of inflation coming and going unfortunately this sort of balloon of inflation even though we had declines in inflation in the summer of 2020 what ended up happening in the fall of 2020 we got the delta variant and we immediately destroyed supply chains with chinese shutdowns again coveted pandemic first delta variant next what came after the delta variant folks omicron to destroy supply chains once again and really put a nail in the coffin of supply chains covid was now lasting inflation was lasting so what happened thereafter we got a war that didn't end up ending in may like many had hoped including myself but is now potentially lasting for the rest of the year and so folks are finally looking back to signs that maybe inflation has potentially peaked here is a chart showing us commodity prices and how they moved from 2021 to 2022 you can see massive moves in commodity prices up 45 food prices up 68 oil prices up 148 and metal prices up 100 and sorry 56 but what have we also seen since the peak in the second quarter of 2022 declines across the board commodity prices down eight percent food prices down eight percent burnt down eight percent and metal prices down 23 some are now saying that the peak is in and if the peak is in in commodities then maybe we'll actually start seeing gas prices come down as well and that's exactly what we've seen we've started seeing gas prices come down so what does this mean and is there potentially a really important chart that we have to pay attention to and understand because it could be a signal of what's right around the corner which could be critical to your investing future absolutely we're going to talk about that chart right after a message from our favorite sponsor that all of you love so dearly the motley fool guys the stock market is all over the place right now and unless you want to be like me and research the market for hours every single day i recommend checking out the motley fool the motley fool stock advice is a subscription stock picking service and has been providing expert guidance for over 20 years meaning they've seen the market at both its best and worst times members gain access to their library of expert stock 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linked below to start getting top-notch stock picks sent directly to you by the molly fool today now before i show you the chart that is so critical let me just reiterate to you falling commodity prices this is the bloomberg commodity price index commodities are huge leading factor in inflation commodities go down first then input costs fall then we see producer prices fall then we see consumer prices fall and so what are we seeing we are seeing almost all of the gains of commodity prices since february being eradicated and so now let's take a look at what becomes extremely important for your investing future first you have to understand the foundation of this graph because it's about to get more complicated and i want you to follow along with this this is the bond market's estimation of future inflation it's called the five-year break-even chart and it measures the difference between the five-year treasury and the five-year tips which is an inflation-protected security now don't worry about the complicated details of how that works just know that as this line goes down the market is screaming we think inflation is about to plummet in fact we are now at the lowest level in the five-year break-even chart that we have seen since folks look at this last july that's remarkable we are at such low levels now of inflation expectations that we have eradicated all of over here the delta expectations of inflation and the war expectations of inflation they're gone but now we need to overlay something very important this is the five-year break-even chart that's the white line that you just saw it's the same one zoomed out all the way back to 2020 or 2014.
so this is the same white line that you saw here and these orange lines here representing this fall are right here this is that fall that you saw zoomed in on now why is this chart so remarkable well this chart is so remarkable because we took the five-year break-even and slapped on top of it the blue line the blue line represents year-over-year inflation and what i want you to see is the inflection points that happen in this chart let's go over here together see this inflection point right here you can see the white line the five-year breakeven line in flex up right before we get an inflection up in the green over here the same thing you see the white line and flex up right before the blue line and flex up you can see that again here the white line inflects up inflation and flex up you see that here the white line inflects down the blue line or inflation and flex down shortly after then the white line bottoms and then flex up shortly after the blue line comes up then we get an even more steepening in the break even expectations we get a steepening in the blue line this is over the past eight years it's been very consistent and yeah there is an opportunity right here to say that one fell before the other but frequently a massive inflection in one is followed by a massive inflection in the other and so what do we have right here folks at this tippy top here we have a massive inflection point in the white line which has now gone all the way down to this orange box here what has not come down yet is the blue line however if this chart is correct we are about to see inflation via the blue line potentially peak but then plummet if inflation plummets then the federal reserve can be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy and the federal reserve might say you know what now our goal is to avoid a recession or to minimize a recession let's support the economy again rather than hurting the economy and you know what that means stonks go burr this is that same chart without my drawings on it but showing you it's not just the five-year break even which is the white line but it's also the 10-year breakeven the orange line which shows you the same style of inflection points and folks what are people doing well in the first half retail investors said you know what we're seeing this as the opportunity of a lifetime to buy stocks bank of america security clients were net buyers of u.s equities towards the end of the second half or the first half for the first time in four weeks institutional clients like pension funds were also the largest net buyers and the only ones who are still selling are stupid hedge funds i mean sorry just hedge funds bloomberg is now reporting that our pmi reports are still coming in high but they're not representing the plummet that we're seeing in commodities yet remember what happens first commodities plummet then after a delay you see producer prices plummet price expectations paid plummet and then cpi inflation comes down which is your consumer inflation and this is where folks we have to talk about one more thing what should you invest in well potentially something for you to invest in during this time is investing in something like electric vehicles electric vehicles already represent a more than six percent of the us car market with a parade of new models that's about to ramp quickly including elon musk who just this morning suggested that maybe tesla's next foray should be a personal and cargo van and elon musk in the past has expressed his admiration for the mercedes sprinter these are vehicles that should be very easy to build they're not complicated like the cyber truck and they sell for a beautiful and delicious premium folks right now the leader in electric vehicles is tesla beating even byd and the other electric automakers throughout the world tesla is growing its sales year over year while all other companies are seeing declines in sales even ford who suggests that oh don't worry we are selling hand over fist ford monkeys yeah well you know what else is happening with ford ford isn't able to make a profit here's an article from june 15th from bloomberg ford motor companies hot selling mustang machi electric suv and other plug-in models are being rendered unprofitable by the rising cost of raw materials which fortunately have started coming down but in this environment ford can't keep up with pricing power to actually make a profit in fact their chief financial officer says we actually had a positive bottom line profit when we launched the car but then commodity costs wiped that out in fact the more evs that ford says the more ford says you're going to see pressure on the bottom line when we launch our evs they're not going to be positive really so now you're going to sell cars at a loss just to say you're selling cars well at least you're not toyota because toyota right now literally is issuing a recall because wheels are falling off their electric vehicles oh well and when we look at bloomberg's score bloomberg a publication that usually bags on tesla when we look at bloomberg's equation for the most fuel-efficient vehicles that exist what do we get folks the best green score models are first the tesla model 3 the most affordable tesla followed actually by the lucid then the model s the bolt the model y and then towards the end of the list some other contenders like the kia and of course the substantially larger and heavier tesla model x so folks the question now for you is if the great reset has come and gone is it time to buy what are you doing with your portfolio personally i have no margin and i am honored to take the money that i have to buy if you want to see exactly what trades i'm making in the diversified portfolios that i'm building on m1 finance make sure to and we'll see you before the price goes up
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