We need to Talk about Lucid.

요약 보기

루시드 Air 차량 테스트 후기: 충전 속도는 전용 급속충전기에서 우수하나 일반 충전소는 느림. 조향 소프트웨어 버그는 시동 시에만 발생해 수리됨. 밸류에이션 재검토 결과 2025년 적정가치 약 16달러 수준으로 추정, 현 주가 대비 과대평가 우려. 단기적으로 30달러 부근이 저항선이며 상승 가능성은 있으나 제한적이라 판단.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. This video on Lucid is brought to you by Masterworks. Learn more in the description down below and more on them later. Hey everyone, I'm Kevin here. So I'm here with my father-in-law who's washing the Lucid Air Dream Edition which looks amazing. As I walk up, you just told me about what happened on the highway?

02. Uh going up to Cupertino and back, it drove beautifully. Uh we charged one time past Robles. We're going to give it a test. I've never done this before, so we'll see how easy it is and had lunch while we were doing it. It was it was just great. Uh plenty of charging stations. The Lucid America ones, right?

03. The Electrify America hours were the charging. It went from 130 mi to 446 mi. So that's pretty awesome and it cost us zero. With the Lucid, at least this model, it came with 3 years of free charging at Electrify America stations. So considering the price of gas uh going up to Cupertino and back, which is about 330 mi each way, cost us zero.

04. Yeah. Now wait a minute, you did stop at ChargePoint though for like 20 minutes. What happened with the ChargePoint charger? So it's been almost an hour of charging and I now have 156 mi whereas I started with 135 mi, so it's basically 21 mi it has given me in almost an hour of charging. That is really pitiful, so I don't recommend going to these uh charging stations in shopping centers unless you just need a quick thing just to get you enough juice to get home.

05. Uh be careful on the ChargePoint or other stations because uh they charged at 6.5 kW per hour. And so I charged it for like an hour, they charged us $2.49 and it only gave us like 15 mi. It was it was ridiculous, you know? So so uh you That's like paying gas prices, man. Who wants to do that? also 15 mi for an hour of charge whereas an hour of charge at the Electrify America stations gave us over 200 mi.

06. Oh my gosh. So it does actually charge really fast. So fast. So fast. And that was at 150 kW per hour and I understand they have the stations that are 350 kW per hours which I understand that gives you the 200 mi in about 15 minutes. That's just nuts. Oh my god. it's just great. Charged me $31. And second of all, now there's this weird humming noise that's coming.

07. I don't know what it's from. Hopefully it'll go away. So what about uh when you got it back because you had uh what ended up being a software bug where you couldn't turn the wheel, it locked up the steering, and it made you really concerned about what if that happened while you were driving? And what did Lucid tell you?

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12. So check out Masterworks today via the link in the description down below and consider diversifying your portfolio with art. They took it back. They were absolutely wonderful, I got to say. They picked up the car on a trailer bed and they they kept it for a few days. They said that they did find like a software bug in the in the steering thing that was correctable and that it would never been a steering issue.

13. It was just upon startup which that's when it did occur. Ah okay. So it wouldn't happen while you were driving. happen and I said, "Hey listen, would you trust your dad to drive it?" You know, that's me basically and or your grandfather and and they said absolutely. So uh I trusted them and they brought it back.

14. They had detailed it. They brought it back on a trailer uh and drove it up to Cupertino and and it just performed uh wonderfully. And you said one of their engineers from Torrance actually came up to give the car back to you. Yeah, he happened to be the one that delivered it and he gave it his blessing and and said it's just an awesome car.

15. So now let's talk a little bit about the Lucid valuation. Okay, it's been a while since we've talked about the Lucid valuation. It's been quite a while. In fact, the last time I talked about Lucid, Lucid was trading for about $35 per share. That is the last time we pulled up the spreadsheet. Now I have not modified the spreadsheet at all.

16. You can fact-check me by going to my last Lucid video. This is what I wrote uh you know, many months ago when when I did the spreadsheet and I suggested the following that there was a downside miss risk uh of the goal of trying to get to uh 1,000 deliveries in 2021 which we know their goal ultimately was 560.

17. They ended up delivering somewhere around uh in in the mid-100s uh by the end of the year. They ended up getting to my model number 214 by uh roughly January 20th. So obviously very very delayed here. This is going to substantially delay the forecast here. But I'm just going to leave this like this for a moment because imagine if we could get 150,000 Lucids out by 2025.

18. That's only in 4 years at 80,000 in revenue per vehicle, this spreadsheet we have looked at before. But I want to show something remarkable here. When we completed this spreadsheet we projected that with a 20% margin, that is 20% profit on these 80,000 vehicles uh $80,000 vehicles uh and a 100 times PE ratio in 2025 we would still be sitting at just about 22 cents of earnings per share.

19. Uh with unfortunately uh a a uh more reasonable price by the end of 2025 around $21.53. That's not ideal, right? Because that's kind of where the darn thing is trading at now. And so at the time we had recorded this video, we recognized this had a potential downside of uh 9.26% for 5 years every single year to get down to that 21.

20. Now well now we're at 21, okay? So now let's go ahead and revise this spreadsheet ourselves. Let's try to be realistic here, okay? And I'm not trying to sound like a bear. Let's just be realistic with it. All right, so this was whatever, 150. It doesn't really matter. 2021 doesn't matter. Uh I think we're going to have a lot more of a NIO-style launch.

21. Which NIO-style launch is going to be going more like, "Hey, it's going to be a milestone when we get to 1,000 vehicles." So if we can honestly get to 8,000 vehicles in 2022 and then maybe 20,000 vehicles in '23, maybe we get to the full production if 2024 uh figures, then we're going to need another factory, so massive CapEx expenses, right?

22. And that's going to have to ramp and it's not going to ramp very quickly. I think we're probably more in the neighborhood if if I'm being uh you know, a base case scenario here, maybe 50, 60,000 vehicles by 2025. Let's let's go with 60, okay? Let's just see what the valuation looks like then. We got to 60,000 vehicles in 2025.

23. That's 4 years out. So we're going to type in here 4 years out. Uh now we're at 60,000 vehicles. Let's assume that they have not gone to their more mainstream vehicles yet and they're still selling the premium vehicles in the range of $110,000. So we're going to bump this revenue per vehicle, right?

24. Because we're scaling back how quickly we think they can actually scale uh their production, so we should increase the average price per vehicle. Given that right now they're selling them for about 169, let's say if we got to about 60,000 vehicles in 2025, 110k is probably closer to where we'd be uh where we would be.

25. I I don't think we're going to get all the way down to that 80,000 per vehicle yet until we get into the hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year. Obviously, we're going to leave uh you know, just zeros in here for other things like energy, insurance, semis, robo-taxi really because this is all more of like Tesla-related, right?

26. We're trying to compare this obviously to Tesla which makes sense. Uh we're going to use a 20% margin here. Now uh we might might be able to bump this. So let's bump it. Let's go ahead and go to where maybe NIO sits right now which is going to be closer to about a 23% cost. So let's go to 77%. Let's do that.

27. And uh that's that's pretty much that's going to be the big number right here. So 77% uh will be the expense that brings 23% of gross profit down. Uh operating expenses uh yeah, probably 15% realistic. I think very realistic here. Uh and then after their tax rate, they might have some credits here. Uh their effective tax rate's probably going to be lower.

28. It's going to be more like 14 or 15% especially in the industry they're in. But we're still only going to be sitting at about an EPS of around 16 cents a share. Let's just get rid of this for a moment here. And uh that's going to put us well at at at I I suppose we could leave it uh of uh well, it doesn't matter.

29. Uh so we take this 16 cents per share which I suppose if I double-click this if I expand this, I think it's a little bit more. Yeah, there it is. It's 1596. Okay, it's about 16 cents a share. Uh and with a future PE of about 100, it brings us to a fair value of only about 16 bucks, right? However, we could probably bump the PE here, but now we're getting a little excessive to try to justify where we are today.

30. I think this is this is excessive. So, unfortunately, I do think that there's still there's still risk here, right? There's definitely risk in Lucid. Now, it is a risk asset at 2362, which is about where it is now. It is a risk asset. So, if if we do end up hitting some form of a bottom here after this March 16th meeting, it wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of a movement to the upside.

31. You know, I could see it selling for around that 30 range, but I do think that 2930 is going to be a solid resistance for this company until we really start proving ourselves a little bit more. That doesn't necessarily mean that this valuation is off. It just means it's going to be selling with a substantially higher multiple, right?

32. But you could see here there's a lot of pressure on this company's valuation where it is now until it can really prove that it can ramp. And right now we're really not proving that. The other issues that we have, and I think this is probably your biggest issue here, is you know, when we took delivery in January of this vehicle, we were told, "Hey, cruise control within 30 days." Okay, still no cruise control, right?

33. Uh so, here we have a $169,000 car with no cruise control. We have lidar and we have all this these cameras. But where is our potential autonomous driving? Even if it's mapped, right? Even if it's Chevy Cruise style or Nvidia style or maybe an Apple partnership. Where is that partnership? Where are the details on that?

34. And for us to really justify Tesla style valuations, we have to do two things. One, we have to we have to prove to the consumer that our software suite is killer. We don't have that because Lucid doesn't have that partner and they're not building it out in-house. And number two, we have to prove that we can scale production, which is the hardest thing to do in manufacturing vehicles.

35. So, as much as I love the vehicle and I'm so happy that they're really taking great care of my father-in-law. Yeah, they answer every single question he has. They've got some great people. There's a person who works at Lucid. Shout out to her, Winter. You're freaking amazing. You have made my father-in-law such a happy customer.

36. It's so so important. Valuation-wise though, you know, you've got an uphill battle. Let's just put it that way. You know, there's there's really no no sense in playing with this because the earnings are going to be so nominal for so long that this is you know, this is one of those stocks where diamond hands are needed to be in it because you're going to be on a ride.

37. Again, I do think there could be an upside movement here in the short term. I think we'll still get rejected at 30. I don't think we're going to see some of these momentum highs like we saw Rivian or or Lucid at any point in the near future here. So, I would certainly wouldn't be buying call options on this.

38. You know, if I had shares, I'd probably be selling calls on on little rally days. So, if for example, if we rallied up to 28, I'd be selling calls against my position. But it's going to be a bit. It's going to be a minute for this to to really get moving. So, my thoughts, hopefully that's helpful for you.

39. I'm finding that to be true. Really? Okay, and because initially after that happened, you were nervous about driving to Cupertino and back because we're down in SoCal. Back to Ventura from beautiful Cupertino. It's a beautiful day up here. And the Lucid has 413 miles as far as the range goes. So, we'll see how it lines up.

40. The trip back to Ventura is 313 miles. And and no issues. No issues whatsoever. I even put that pad in cuz I didn't want to load the luggage on the stuff. On the fabric, yeah. And and what just happened with somebody on the highway here? They were driving a BMW next to you. we're we're all constantly getting looks from people because it's a unique color scheme and it's a different looking car and it's new and people know about Lucids, I guess, from the internet.

41. But I was driving along the freeway and a BMW passed me on the left and passenger window went down and some girl stuck her hand out and went, "Yay!" You know, like that. That's amazing. So, it's like, "Okay." Awesome. Awesome. Well, it looks great. Thanks for the update on the Lucid. All right.