저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 AI 혁명이 아직 초기(2~3회 이닝)이며 2025년까지 기술주 강세장이 지속될 것이라고 주장. 소프트웨어·인프라·사이버보안으로 AI 투자가 확산되고, 규제 완화와 반독점 우려 감소가 기업의 AI 자본지출을 촉진한다고 봄. 엔비디아 등 반도체와 데이터센터·냉각·전력 같은 기반 인프라에 가치가 있으며, 팔란티어를 차세대 오라클/SAP급 기업으로 평가. Vista Shares의 Dave Nasser는 AI 인프라 구축 관련 하위 기업에 대한 간접 노출을 권장.
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because now it's about the second third fourth D because now software they're they're on the danport thei party they're no longer waiting behind the Velvet roof and now other Tech players are trying to get in cyber security infrastructure and I think that's we're going to see a broadening out of this Tech rally in terms of where we see this fourth Industrial Revolution Dan how much of this is Trump related meaning the Trump Administration returning to the White House versus that unrelenting strong earnings growth that we have seen and then of course this fear of missing out momentum that certainly seems to be at least somewhat of a factor in these games look Trump it's a goldilock scario for tax deregulation con at the FTC clearly that that's in the the last days here so that's going to be bullish for deal making I think some of the Anti-Trust concerns are are going to start to go away I mean they'll still be there in the background but then you you look at two trillion of AI cap act in a deregulatory environment with 6 trillion the sidelines and I continue to say like the bear look haters will continue to hate erating adoption of AI he predicts a techbow market into 2025 fueled by Enterprise investments in software infrastructure and cyber security alongside a multiplier effect from spending on AI chips like nvidia's Ives emphasizes that ai's evolution is moving into advanced stages with companies broadening their applications and infrastructure he also highlights favorable regulatory conditions such as deregulation and reduced antitrust fears as enablers for massive AI Capital expenditures companies like paler are positioned as key players evolving into major Enterprise Solutions providers IV stresses the importance of diversifying AI Investments focusing on foundational sectors like cooling power and semiconductors which underpin ai's growth and offer long-term value your latest note caught our attention you're very bullish into the end of the year you're bullish to say the lease going in to 2025 what are the key drivers of that I think it's get the popcorn out because when you look at the AI party now it's about the second third fourth derivatives playing out I think Salesforce was the key moment last night is you know this AI party it's 10 p.m and it goes to 4: a.m.
I think tech stocks are up over 20% next year as the bear continue to have trouble finding AI in their spreadsheets when they're hibernating in their caves I mean what type of spend do we anticipate continues to make sense and and at what level for some of the early kind of Dipping the toe in the water of everything from agent force and what that could mean for companies all the way into hey how much data center space how many more racks do we need just in order to make sure that we've got enough to run all the inference technology that's going to be necessary yeah I think you nailed it in terms of that question because look I mean to me it's about the multiply ech across software infrastructure cyber security that's why this is going to be a tech bull market that rages into next year Dan IES is highly optimistic about the growth of big tech stocks driven by the Accel so tell me about AIS what kind of names will you be putting in there or not putting in there what are some of the criteria well as we're in this early inning the fund is going to be focused on those early build outs so we're talking about data centers and all the things that go into a data center we're talking about the raw semiconductor manufacturing so folks like Taiwan semiconductor and Nvidia and Intel and AMD are certainly in this portfolio as well but what we've done is compressed the weights there so we're also getting exposure to companies like uh Veri of Holdings which is primarily about Cooling and power which is a pretty unsexy part of the industry but you know what they huge margin and they're collecting a lot of cash off the sidelines as people make those build outs so in the beginning this fund is going to look a little bit more buildout and industrial based as the super cycle evolves you'll see it move more and more towards the applications and those end points where AI really is going to impact our lives and is it uh more us Centric more Global footprint what kind of um exposure do we have in that sense it's absolutely a global portfolio as you might expect a lot a lot of the companies are listed in trading here in the US but there's exposure throughout Asia throughout Europe anywhere you see people building those things out and again while we focus on some of the higher Tech and the flashier software names uh a lot of these other companies particularly around the world are doing that pick and shovel work and those really create more value opportunities and by giving those a higher weight in the portfolio you're doing more than just chasing headlines you're really building a portfolio exposure I mean you do have have names like AMD Micron Taiwan semi as you mentioned right I mean you do have the semiconductor exposure you got to have that right ABS absolutely but the difference is we're not putting them in there at 15% of the portfolio right most folks already have a fairly large exposure to companies like Nvidia they don't necessarily need to be tripling down on that exposure when they're making a small AI play to maybe augment their core exposure and that's really what we're talking about here a satellite position and if you're going to get that satellite position you want things that are going to be a little different than what may already be in your portfolio that's part of why the index methodology here well it doesn't equal weight it does compress those weights so we have no companies in here that are 15 or 20% of the fund we also don't have any companies that are you know 0.1% of the fund and really not going to have any impact so the idea is to create meaningful exposure to the real beneficiaries but more and more you look at this AI spend look at the use case obviously being led by the mess of AI paler can't deny it and I think that's why this part is going to r on going into next year you know as as you're thinking about and and you mentioned paler and I was looking at paler as as we all were in our Newsroom yesterday just trying to figure out okay more government contracts it it makes sense they've already leaned into that and seemed like there was a setup for that as you're thinking about the the way forward for some of the names that have been dare I say say culty Tech names but now have real contracts to actually back some of the growth on that trajectory too how are you kind of evaluating what that Runway may look like wello like when you talk about culty I think some of is like retail essentially was AE institutional I mean you could say that for the T you could say that for po here you could say that for many names I think the difference now is that the AI Revolution is here and the messy of paler continue to be front center I mean I think my question on paler I think it's not about this stock going from a teenager to senior citizen it's about could this be the next Oracle the next sap I think that's really the question as we look out and like look we've talked about in the show the Bears have missed every transformational Tech game in the last 15 years waiting for some Black Swan event focus on their spreadsheet and they can't see it in their DTF that's how they'll Miss AI Revolution as well do you think it's the next Oracle I believe paler could be the next Oracle and there's nothing that makes me believe it can't be given where we see Enterprise given AIP given it special sauce I don't see anyone else that could compete and that's our view from evaluation you have to look out three four five years but to deny the AI revolutions happening that's like being negative against a LeBron zukovic that's where I VI pound here in that in that category being the Messi of AI the Messi of AI Dan time to Spotlight Ai and how you can get exposure to that group in your portfolio Dave Na's with us strategic advisor at Vista shares first of all the AI Revolution Is it real where what inning are we in what would you say well yes it's real but we're probably in the first two or three Innings and I think this is something a lot of people get wrong when they look at big technology Innovations like this we see chat GPT we see these sort of flashy end states that look like the whole thing but it's really not we're very much in the early Innings and when we look at the ways investors can get access to this honestly what we see is a lot of Leaning into the largest flashiest most volatile Tech names like Nvidia there's nothing wrong with an owning Nvidia but the actual buildout that's happening in AI I is much less flashy it's data centers it's cooling it's people who run wires underneath floors that kind of work is where the real money is actually being spent so when we look at something like AIS the product that we're talking about today the point here is not to trade AI but to get an meaningful economic exposure to AI in your portfolio if you think that's where the future is really headed so the products that we're building at at Vista Shares are really about building from the bottom up those folks in the economic food chain that are really going to benefit from this buildout so yes it's very real but it's going to happen a little bit slower than I think some people expect and the early beneficiaries of all that spending are going to be a whole lot of companies that don't have the ticker and vda Dan IES highlights the transformative potential of the AI Revolution predicting a sustained Tech bull market fueled by significant AI spending and favorable conditions like deregulation he emphasizes that foundational sectors such as semiconductors and data centers will play a critical role alongside high-profile tech companies like paler in driving growth to capitalize on this expansion Ives advises investors to diversify Beyond headline grabbing names and focus on the broader AI ecosystem this approach ensures meaningful and sustainable exposure to the industry's long-term growth potential.
doou prioritize investing in well-known Tech Giants or foundational infrastructure players in AI how do you think regulatory changes will influence AI growth and innov ation
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