저자: DavidWagner · 외국인
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S&P500 이익 성장률 약 27%, 소형주 18.3%로 성장 견고하다고 주장. AI는 혁명적 디플레 요인이며 정부 부채 부담으로 M2 확대(통화 공급) 가능성 언급. 빅테크 주가가 5년·10년 평균 대비 할인 거래 중이라 조정 시 매수 권고. 소형주는 마진 정체로 현재 매력 낮음. 장기 금리 상승(10년물 4.8%) 전망, 채권 과다 보유는 위험하다고 봄, 시장 베타 보유 선호.
다듬은 글
Joining us here now around the desk is David Wagner, head of equities portfolio manager at Capital Advisors. Happy Friday, David. Happy Happy International Donut Day, Sam. I've got my donut here. I just got it here. It's It's going to be a very interesting kind of day here, particularly because we are continuing to see that pressure for technology.
You say when things get chaotic, get back to basics. Is this chaotic? Not yet. I mean, we're coming off of what, two down days in a row after the market was up, you know, nine straight days. But, this what you just said there, Sam, it's kind of been my motto for the entire year. When things get chaotic or when they feel hectic, the best thing investors can do is to get back to the basics.
And Sam, the basics are so simple right now. Let's look at economic profitability for the market, but let's look at overall economic growth. And we'll start with the latter. You know, the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis is growing earnings almost 27%. You know, even small caps, I mean, obviously we've had a more broadening of a trade today.
Small caps are expected to grow earnings 18.3% here in 2026. So, growth, not just at the corporate level, but still at the GDP level is unbelievably strong. I want to talk about the corporate level, because there's an argument to suggest that the growth we're seeing is still very cyclical in nature, and everyone's just wondering, you know, when the music stops.
I mean, how sustainable do you think this is? I think it's very sustainable. So, I just got back from the Bahamas two days ago, and we had rented a boat. But, we had a flag up on our boat that said, "The beatings will continue until morale improves." And I think it's a perfect justification or line for active managers.
So far year-to-date, there's I think only 11% of active managers in the large core category are outperforming. It's cuz they want to fade this trade. And I think the beatings are going to continue until their morale improves on the tech space and this overall AI narrative, because I think it's here to stay.
Do you buy this dip in tech? Absolutely. I mean, you know, obviously like this market has been very concentrated on a kind of the memory wall names, but I think the mega cap names are trading at a substantial discount relative to their five-year and 10-year history. So, I'd be buying your Amazons, I'd be buying your Microsofts, I'd be buying your Nvidias and and your Broadcoms.
There's no doubt about it. I think Amazon and Meta are my favorite now. And Sam, and you know me well. I I'm a big small-cap guy. Started small-cap strategy 2013. Yet, I still can't get off this mega-cap train right now. Okay. What about some buffer in the portfolio right now? I mean, what are you hearing from clients about um you know, putting a sort of defensive layer in there just in case, you know, maybe the music does stop, maybe there is some risk to this AI trade.
Yeah, um I I definitely think that right now is a great time to be buying options on the market. I mean, the VIX is trading I think I saw my trader say at at a 16 level this morning. But, I think people think about options incorrectly. They think that is there for uh solely protection. But, I think if you utilize options properly, you can protect on the downside, but it actually gives you more ability to be advantageous to own more risk assets.
And I think the biggest mistake that investors can do right now is be too conservative in their portfolio and over-own fixed income. I I think, you know, rates are going to go higher. I think the next level on the 10-year is going to be 4.8%. But, there's such a push and a pull going on in this market right now.
Like, this AI revolution. I think AI is a revolutionary topic, not evolutionary, that is just such a deflationary force. And given the amount of debt that we have on the books here in the US government, you know, they need inflation to bring down their overall cost of their debt over longer periods of time.
So, there's such a a push and a pull going on right now. And the only reconciliation that you can have from the AI deflationary aspect in the inflationary market is, you know, the the government going back to printing money. Mhm. Increasing the M2 supply. Terrible for bonds, great for risk assets. So, what would be the catalyst then for you to see small caps once again as a screaming buy?
Profitability. So, if you look at the S&P 500, there's no surprise that, you know, the operating margin just hit 20%. It's continuing to increase. Even on the S&P 500 equal weight profitability, that is also increasing. It's tough for the market to get in trouble when margins are increasing or staying static.
What you're seeing in small caps right now from a profitability standpoint, margins are actually staying pretty stagnant. And I think that has a lot to do with the interest expense ratios given the debt burden that they have on their balance sheets. Yeah, I want to ask you about that actually because there is an argument to suggest that margins are kind of looking juiced up and maybe even slightly bloated right now because companies are making so much money they actually don't know what to do with it at the moment because there's so much uncertainty in the world they're just sitting on their hands.
Do do you think that's the case? I mean, do you think that's what's kind of juiced up the optics of what looks so good on a lot of these balance sheets? You know, Seana, you know I'm blunt and I just think that's absolutely wrong. I think investors aren't seeing the forest through the trees and like the hardest way to get new ideas into your head is to get the old ideas out.
Like the core characteristic of the S&P 500 has evolved from the '80s, the '90s, and the 2000s. Like the core tenant of the S&P 500 is operating leverage and when operating leverage is working for you, when growth is driving, you know, everything, your margins are expanding. And I think that they are here to stay.
Okay. And when you talk about sort of buy the dip because, you know, I was looking at the socks. I don't think it's gone three days of you know, consecutive losses here since March. I mean, every time we see a pullback like this, I know this is sort of day two. You do have a tendency to see the dip buyers sort of step in and support the market once again.
But how do you time that? I mean, you know, because there is so much conversation going around as to oh, you know, okay, perhaps this tech and AI trade was due for a good old pullback and maybe just a cooling off period. Do you think we've got more to go? I mean, I don't think we're going to be in for a correction.
I mean, given the levels we've been looking at, but I mean, at what point do you know when to step in here? Yeah, you know, I'm a firm believer that given that core tenant of operating leverage leverage I just spoke about, we're going to have more tails. We're not going to see a tail here right now in my opinion, specifically on the left side.
But I'm going to be boring here. I just want to own beta. I don't want to, you know, I'm a stock picker at heart. I love of caps, but there's a so much dispersion out there in this market that it's very difficult to choose the winners versus the losers. And so I'm buying beta cuz I think that you know, there's so much liquidity, you know, splashing around in this market that, you know, obviously we're talking SpaceX, any other mega cap IPOs that I think it's just hard to bet against this market and I'd rather be the market than be a stock picker right now.
Understood. Dave, always a pleasure to speak to you. Thank you so much for dropping by. Have a wonderful weekend and rest of your trip here in New York. David Wagner there, head of equities portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisers.
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