저자: DaveNicholson,AngeloZino · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴이 실적 상회와 AI 반도체 매출 143% 성장, 가이던스 상회에도 주가는 14%대 급락. 시장 기대치가 이미 완벽에 가깝게 반영되어 있어 조금이라도 못 미치면 처벌받는 구조라는 분석. 두 패널 모두 장기 성장 전망은 긍정적이며 2027년 1000억 달러 목표 유지 언급. 엔비디아 키노트가 반도체 업계 비교 기준을 높였다는 진단. 네트워킹 사업은 중요하나 시장 초점은 커스텀 실리콘에 있다는 평가.
다듬은 글
Broadcom pulling back today after its earnings and bringing the rest of the semiconductor industry lower with it. Let's dive deeper into the report with our panel. Joining us now, Dave Nicholson, the chief research officer at Futurum, and Angelo Zino, senior equity analyst at CFRA. So, Dave, I'm looking at this move to the downside.
We're down now more than 14% for Broadcom, and yet they had another beat. They guided revenue that was above expectations. AI semiconductor revenue soared 143% projected to soar another 200% next quarter. But, the stock is down sharply. So, uh take us through your takeaways here and if this is just a situation of being priced for perfection.
Yeah, I think that's exactly that's exactly right. Priced for perfection. And um, you know, this is adult guidance from uh from a very serious business. Uh Hock Tan and Charlie Quwas run a tight ship. And I think this is just a reflection of the reality of the AI space from a semiconductor perspective.
And that is we see massive growth ahead. There's absolutely no question. However, the market expectations have grown right into that. And anything less than better than perfection is going to be punished by the market at this point. And Angelo, let's talk about better than perfection here cuz I was covering these earnings live on air yesterday.
And their AI chip revenue came in really strong. I highlighted it there just at 143% higher. It's coming in now projected to come in around 16 billion, which would be the equivalent of about 200% growth, which at the time seemed fine until I looked at the estimate, and it was a little over a billion dollars shy from what the street was looking for.
Is the market overreacting to a slight miss there, or is this a potential sign that AI growth is beginning to normalize? I think the expectations were actually just really high kind of going into the print here um or as as as the guidance was concerned. I mean, you kind of look to your point the 16 billion guy guidance here for the July quarter.
You look at the revenue expectation going into the quarter for the July quarter, it was the expectation was sequential increase in north of 30%. So, we were actually a little bit worried going into the print whether or not they'd be able to guide to that point. They were able to guide for ahead and meet those numbers.
Um but, you know, you you can but but the expectation here was when where you know, despite the fact that the AI revenue maybe came a little bit short, it's still in and they were able to offset it with some of that non-AI revenue numbers. So, overall, you know, the numbers were pretty good. I think also for 2027, they did keep that hundred billion dollar number intact.
So, that is a good thing. But again, it's one of those things where the bar was so high, the street already priced in that I don't want to necessarily say they can't beat future expectations because we think that they can. But nonetheless, I think they this this the street priced this one a little bit more perfect than some of the other names that reported during Q1 earning season.
We keep tossing around the word perfect in some form or the other here. And Dave, if a company can grow its revenue by nearly 50% and still then see its stock fall double digits the next day, what does that tell us about the expectations that are embedded just generally across the broader semiconductor space here?
Yeah, and so growing 50% if if you're talking about my lemonade stand business starting at $10 in revenue, that's one thing. But growing at that rate from the basis that we're talking in Broadcom is is a stunning accomplishment. One thing I want to say is I I I think that Jensen Huang's keynote out of out of Taipei can't be ignored in this conversation.
I think that the full the extremely broad offering that Nvidia is bringing to the table impressed a lot of people and so people are in the semiconductor space are being measured up against that which isn't really fair from a Broadcom perspective. So what does it say? It says that we are at an interesting point where maybe we're taking a couple of steps forward and then a couple of steps back or then a step back in the semiconductor space.
Earlier you were talking about snowflake and other places other value areas in the market that that might be a little bit undervalued at this point. So no, I think I think this is absolutely just the market responding. Frankly, I saw the 9% growth in VMware and I thought wow, that's really good because I know the inside of that business and I know exactly what Hock Tan and Charlie Colossus trying to accomplish there.
So yeah, it's a bit of a contradiction. It certainly is and Angela, I think you had a comment in your note that said in Hock we trust and I had a little laugh when I saw that but as I look at you know talking about undervalued or under appreciated parts here, one thing that stuck out to me was a networking which is now about 40% of Broadcom's AI revenue overall but it's not really getting any focus.
Is the market still too focused Angelo on chips and overlooking this potential opportunity in networking? You know, I I think I don't know if they're necessarily overlooking it. I when I think about Broadcom I still think about those those massive customers that they plan to ramp here on the custom silicon side of things and I do think the street you know really is largely looking at that and whether or not some of those expectations remain viable as we kind of look ahead into 2027 into 2028 because that's going to really dictate whether or not some of those forward expectations are going to be met.
That being said, the networking business is extremely important and it's a very good margin business. There is some great secular opportunities attached to the to networking. Um that was really kind of highlighted this week um as well at that at the conference at the Computex conference. I mean the the the shift towards co-packaged optics um you know kind of moving that copper wall um you know past that that rack side.
So um there's going to be some great content growth there for Broadcom. There is going to be some you know we think significant upside potential to the networking business. But again that being said I I do think that the street might be a little bit um more focused at least for Broadcom on the custom silicon side because that is the bigger needle driver.
And I think on the networking side investors are probably playing a little bit more with Marvell today. All right. Well today uh down 14 and 1/2% for Broadcom. Really appreciate you both being with us today. We're going to have to leave it there. Also appreciate all of you being with us on Trading 360. Stay with us. Fast Markets up next.
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