저자: Kevin · 외국인
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장단기 금리차(역전 후 재스팁닝)가 경기침체 신호이며, 주식·채권 매도를 유발 중이라고 진단. 채권은 최근 최악의 손실, 자산가 현금 선호 증가. 부동산은 금리 장기 고점 가능성으로 인내 필요 강조. 미국 정치(정부 셧다운, UAW 파업, 이민 위기)와 테더 대출 재개 등 이슈를 전달하며 자사 광고를 다수 포함.
다듬은 글
the steepling of the yield curve a border crisis the United Auto Workers strike and a government shutdown along with what the heck is going on in the bond market we have a lot to talk about and it has big impacts on your economic wealth let's get into it first look at this this once I remove myself is the inverted yield curve I want you to remember that this zero line right here breaking this is usually what signals a recession with the exception of one time when we had a soft Landing in about the mid 90s where we didn't even really invert that deeply but yet tiny little bit of an inversion usually this does accurately signal a cutting recession especially when you have one that's this deep basically the line going this low and the painful parts are not actually the going down part usually although last year it was usually the painful parts are what's known as the rest deepening that's when the line starts trending back up you'll see this really rapid explosion here this was during the march banking crisis and of course it's a volatile graph like any graph but the March banking crisis along with tax loss harvesting right at the end of the year led to some of the larger pain points now we're starting to see a similar run up that actually began right here around July 19th which is right when the stock market really topped out since July 19th at best we've really been sideways on most stocks in most cases though we've started seeing the momentum stocks that we're really running this summer give up all their gains again if not some of them are even lower than where they were and other stocks are under heavy pressure compared to where we have been relative to July a lot seeing the inverted yield curves re-steepening to blame for this that you're actually potentially driving billions of dollars of selling simply algorithmically that algorithms are saying okay when the 10-year Rises significantly and the two-year does not rise a lot what happens in that case well the longer end of treasuries becomes more expensive and the shorter end the two-year end doesn't well that's the uninverting of the yield curve it's the steepening that steepening is painful and that's probably what we're experiencing now it's not just painful for stocks though take a look at this this is Deutsche Bank oh quickly I forgot to mention next Friday we are raising the prices on the pre-sale of the new verse Pro it's really inexpensive right now it's 79 there are like 10 different options of the new Bruce Pro crash courses you could check out these are very specific targeted crash courses to be very efficient brand new material they're really good the crash courses don't come with the live streams you can add that in that's how the price is also so low so they're they're a little shorter uh they're very very targeted 79 bucks really great intro so check those out you could bundle up you could get into the crash courses but the price will be going up next Friday so go to meet kevin.com to learn more about that Deutsche Bank now arguing that these are the the worst Bond losses that we have really seen since World War one and quite frankly if you go all the way back to the beginning of the 1800s you have not seen these kinds of losses with the exception of world war one that bonds have been experiencing this is a really tough time for markets and people are pissed rightfully so now I'm dealing with inflation and the balanced 60 40 portfolio of stocks and bonds is is a completely topsy-turvy so it's painful for a lot of folks but in addition to that we wonder when will the pain and Bank of America is reporting that we're becoming more bearish as a market again which is often a Buy Signal it's contrarian Buy Signal on top of that Bank of America's heart net suggests that when it comes to Bank of America private uh clients excuse me losing my voice a little bit when it comes to Bank of America private clients out with 3.2 trillion in assets under management their clients are in stocks to the tune of almost 60 percent it's actually pretty decently allocated only about 11.9 stocks or sorry cash and 21.3 bonds however this week represented the biggest selling of stocks in four months cash and t-bill inflows stayed strong that's going to be your money markets your cash accounts people are throwing money into the money markets and again it makes sense why would you touch bonds right now the only way you touch bonds is if you already own bonds or if you really want to take this this like really Cavalier approach of I'm doing the contrarian bet the contrarian BET right now is you go long like TLT or TMF uh TLT is your 20-year bond fund uh TMF is your triple leverage bond this is basically a way of saying that's it you think yields of time opt and you're willing to suffer for you know a few months because you think that'll bet off big or pay off big rather and yield to plummet and bond prices will Skyrocket in such a case you would experience capital appreciation in bonds and likely those two ETFs those exchange trading products the problem is when you're earning a five and a half percent yield on money markets why bother with investing in the 10-year at four and a half when you have the risk that maybe four and a half isn't the peak maybe it's gonna go to five percent maybe it's gonna go to six percent maybe mortgage rates are going back to double digits and ten percent but that's the way markets work it's kind of like when Tesla was plummeting and was down at 106 dollars everybody's like but everyone waiting until it gets the sixty nine dollars no that's that's the emotion of the stock market it's just like in Baltimore much of an extent when markets are euphoric it can't go down it's gonna keep going better good to know because you'll miss out otherwise and then of course when things are a bearish they can't really perish uh anyway this this is all compounded obviously by the fact that the Federal Reserve has sort of walked back this idea of uh significant rate Cuts really only dropping rates maybe to 5.1 by the end of next year I think something will break by then I mean no guarantee somebody I mean we thought things were going to break in 2023 knock on wood so far they haven't I mean we did have a banking crisis it was my little big question before Adventure collapse yeah it's just a little rounding error okay but yes short of that we didn't have any real massive economic issues that broke and destroyed our economy this year with the exception of just the lingering effects of high inflation and so now the question is well what's going to break next year and if nothing breaks next year does that mean maybe the fed's like I don't know maybe maybe we don't even lower rates at all next year just it's just not gonna be good for Real Estate I really think patience is going to be so key for real estate and and I know I mean obviously we're fundraising for house hack right now uh you can invest for no fees uh obviously we have some um uh some processing fees uh that on our end we have to pay with having a payment processor and stuff like that uh but uh you yourself you can pay uh you could ACH invest right now you could credit card invest right now it's really convenient uh what we've got set up at househype.com read the circular there but when it comes to the real estate market I think patience is going to be so so important uh and I really believe that right now watching what happens over the next few months is critical what we're doing just so you know how we're preparing is we're preparing by making sure we have CIS all of our systems all of our ducks in a row everything lined up we're renovating the properties that we own which isn't too many properties but we're renovating what we own uh and we're using these initial properties at house hack to really say okay like let's just say you had five properties now or ten properties now it doesn't really matter take the take what you have now now make perfect systems so that way if things really do hit the fan in the future we could go okay now we got an extra 20 this month now we get an extra 20 this month now we get extra 20 this month and we're able to actually process all of that business so to speak uh working with vendors and contractors and finding contacts and all of that and we're able to do that and handle that when we need to so it's a really it feels like prep time because really higher the FED stays for longer the more just unaffordable real estate because then of course I see everyone's comments and I see this individually in markets as well yes there's no inventory people always say that but they're probably also not looking at the real estate market every single day and Nationwide going damn there's a lot of houses hitting Market every day that's what I see I see a lot of houses hitting the market every single day because the real estate market doesn't stop you still get properties hit at the market they just don't sit on the market that long they sell well until now and if you look at data that we see most data we see just on the Internet is two months old or at least three weeks old three weeks to eight weeks old that's the data you get on the internet so you have to be really careful what you should be doing is you should be going into your market like let's say you live in Toledo Ohio right Toledo Ohio you should be going on like Zillow or whatever for Toledo Ohio and you just type in homes for sale whatever Toledo Ohio Zillow 480 homes on the market in Toledo Ohio I don't know why I picked Toledo Ohio okay you can get a house for 4 40 grand out there holy smokes anyway if that number Rises you have a daily indicate you could have a daily spreadsheet and watch inventory change every single day in every single Market and of course inventory is low but if you start seeing it go wait a minute a month ago it was 400.
now it's 480. and then next month it's 600. what do you think's happening okay no little tricks of the trade for simple ways to pay attention to this you don't have to don't over complicate real estate as soon as you over complicate real estate you end up facing problems okay so uh what do we actually got going on though uh in terms of this government shutdown uh and what's going on with Ukraine well actually both of these things combined this was remarkable the Pentagon is now going to exempt Ukraine Ukrainian operations funding for Ukraine from a potential government shutdown now this is really convenient because Republicans are well we're gonna we're gonna hold up funding because we're not convinced we want to send more money to Ukraine and the Democrats are like no we will not sign a continuing resolution or a stop debt funding measure unless there's funding for Ukraine and then you'll have the blood on your hands of shutting down the government so to speak uh and then as this debate is going on between Republicans and Democrats the pentagon's like we're just gonna um spoiler keep funding Ukraine anyway no matter what you do with your government shutdown oh and it's kind of like Republicans are like what the hell we wanted to make a point and Democrats are like it's coming it's a crazy time word but anyway uh the decision by the Pentagon and quote ensures that American tactics and equipment for Ukrainian forces can continue without interruption the exemption is in effect if uh lawmakers fail to fund our government by September 30th which is when we would expect a potential government shutdown this also includes funding operation Atlantic resolve operation Atlantic resolve provides oh basically rotational deployments of a combat ready forces to the Eastern flank of the Ukrainian borders to show our support to Nato and it enhances deterrents on that Eastern flank operation Atlantic resolve was actually created after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014.
U.S military activities including training of UK or a UK of Ukrainian soldiers and shipments of weapons will uh continue as well in addition to that Joe Biden did did announce a new Aid package this new Aid package is an additional 325 million dollars in military aid Joe Biden announced this just yesterday during a meeting with zielinski this is the fourth package of additional funding that we have seen for Ukraine in the last six weeks it is separate from the 24 billion dollars Biden wants Congress to approve Biden said there is a no nation that will be secure if the U.S does not help Ukraine now the package is now expected to include air defense capabilities cluster Munitions anti-tank weapons and more keep in mind like there there was this convention on cluster Munitions assigned uh by 123 Nations back in 2010 and the reason they did this is because these cluster Munitions like they had this fail rate of like two to forty percent which basically means if you had like 100 little cluster bombs like two to forty of uh two to four hundred of them sorry well out of a hundred two to forty of them would not detonate and then you have these Duds somebody's got to go around and clean up all these minefields that are being bombed and then the leftover dud cluster Munitions or or weapons it's gonna be a disaster in eastern Ukraine for a long time people are gonna pick this stuff up and blow up it's a problem and have a really big clearing effort that's the bombs on Munitions consisting of a projectile known as a parent emission the transport several hundred baumlets or cluster munitions dropped by aircraft or launched from the ground cluster bombs are designed to be dispersed over a wide area the size of several football pitches as these weapons are generally free-falling they can strike the ground a considerable distance from the target area if they're not used correctly or if conditions are for example windy in addition not all bomblets detonate on impact they thus become de facto anti-personnel mines banned by the 1997 Ottawa convention years after a conflict is over they can kill dozens of people including small children attracted by their bright colors I'm sure BlackRock would love to be involved conspiratorial here but it's worth noting that Russia Ukraine and the United States have not actually signed that agreement and so the United States uh still has cluster Munitions and even though they don't manufacture many of them they've got plenty of them stockpiled and now they're sending them to Ukraine to use they're actually quite functional for the purpose that Ukraine is fighting right Ukraine is fighting Russia's Dragon Teeth fortifications which are basically like you know the anti-tank well x's and triangles uh and then you've got the Mine Fields and then you've got the trenches cluster Munitions are great for this because you just you just blanket bomb an area and then the mines blow up and you hit the trenches easily uh and you can basically get through the Dragon's Teeth Ambush setups much easier rather than using targeted missile strikes uh which targeted missiles are great against buildings cluster Munitions are great against well what Ukraine is fighting look I'm not like a military Intel guy here okay just like I'm just trying to catch you up a little bit but all of this is related as well to this government shutdown on the drama that's happening right now for example listen to this apparently some in the GOP right now just blockaded McCarthy yesterday for the second time in three days leaving McCarthy unable to bring his own spending Bill to the floor like he can't even pass his bill which he knows the Democrats won't go for anyway because you've got some hardlining him in the GOP they're like yeah no no no no we don't we don't even like your idea and a lot of people don't like McCarthy remember how hard it was for McCarthy to get in the problem a lot of contentiousness and a lot of people probably gonna be pointing the finger at Republicans for government shutdown but you know what a lot of Republican constituents are like you know what Kevin I want the government to shut down I'm tired that's true I think government spending is pretty insane uh right now but uh but it it it you know what at least you can rest easily and knowing that Ukrainian Pilots are still going to be trained via Pentagon funding for F-16 fighter jets the US Army's embra M1 Abrams at tanks will still be expected to be delivered and thousands of more Ukrainian troops are expected to be trained using U.S adalahallas want to know something else about U.S dollar Hollis they ever heard of the F-35 you know the disappearing airplane okay maybe maybe that's just a joke it actually is a joke we did have an F-35 that it just uh suddenly happened to go missing after crashing anyway we don't have to think conspiracy spirit that okay whatever crashed in a dance forwards that's fine ignore the conspiracy nothing to see here but where there is something to see is this look at what the financial times just said this is ridiculous it involves trillions of dollars now before we keep going a quick note from our sponsor Weeble paid sponsor but you know what they're also about to pay you because if you sign up for Weeble not only do you get free socks but you could earn five percent on your cash as you're waiting to pull the trigger or buy the dip now I actually like that a lot because I'm worried that sitting on cash for too long could create an opportunity cost but if your cash is ready to go and you see an opportunity on Weeble you know you could trade on it right away I personally like sorting by either market cap small or big or by sorting based on the movement in the day to see where there might be some action to trade on if I find an opportunity what I really enjoy about Weeble is that I can hop in and immediately Place option trades calls sell puts sell calls you name it or I could get my FIB retracement lines up pretty fast and start checking out hey are my Trends okay here or are we about to keep tanking somewhat like oh we won't talk about that one but the TA was telling us and it was all on Weeble so one thing I love is Weeble and I encourage you to check it out not only are your securities sipc insured up to five hundred thousand dollars but your cash can be secured up to nine hundred thousand dollars in some cases check out the terms and conditions at a Weeble and make sure to use my link in the description down below I really appreciate it helps the channel out a lot and I hope you enjoy using Weeble as much as I do because quite frankly I use it every single day here it is the Pentagon says that the country's Fleet of F-35 fighter jets can only fly a little over half the time because maintenance issues keep the aircraft on the ground despite the growing Reliance on f-35s by the United States but not only that despite the fact that the plane is only functional 55 of the time the US military wants to buy 2 000 more of them by the mid-2040s over the next 20 years and that is expected to cost over 1.7 trillion dollars 1.7 trillion dollars for aircraft that are only functional 55 of the time right now I I like let's just say if I was gonna spend 1.7 trillion dollars I'd be expecting at least 69 up time okay tether this is ridiculous tether apparently stablecoin issue right Heather has like an insanely profitable business model insanely profitable they literally take cash that's deposited and turn it into gold by parking it into money markets getting like a 5.3 yield with like no freaking risk the biggest risk is that people are like I need to dump my tether but so they basically created nothing and then are able to create or get cash from people and earn massive interest on that cash and it's like a banker's dream their business model is amazing in that sense right now and because of this tether doesn't actually have to take on risk in case you don't know tether is a stable coin crypto okay we're talking about crypto or crypto now tether though listen to this has resumed lending stable coins to support certain crypto investors who need collateral they promised at the end of last year that they were going to pause this kind of lending but they've decided you know what we are going to support borrowers because we're going to be a good citizen and rather than some people having to liquidate their crypto during volatile crypto times why don't we just give them a loan we've got plenty of money anyway and it'll support the whole crypto Community hey maybe that's a good thing for tether but nobody will ever know all of the Financial Insights of tether and what's really going on behind the scenes but this isn't a video about tetherfud it's just to remind you that tether is once again lending again so make of that what you may regarding the UAW strike the strike is expected to get worse today at 12 p.m Eastern 10 a.m local time the strike is expected to expand to more facilities of Ford estevantes and GM I can't believe I almost just said gelantis but anyway car makers propose a 20 pay increase UAW is now down to 36 percent UAW wants that 32-hour work week and a restoration of some of the benefits that were essentially postponed after the global financial crisis 2008-2009 uh there's this also talk about again this four day work week though some of that is being kind of like deprioritized by the UAW UAW really focused on getting this pay increase apparently things are reasonably productive with Ford things are getting a little better with solantis the one that really isn't going anywhere apparently is GM's and uh well yeah that one might be getting a few extra strikes today so we'll see what happens with the UAW along and short of it obviously we want a resolution to be found here it's not great for Supply Chains It's not great for GDP or recessionary concerns it's not great for the workers who are doing their best just to survive and feed their families who haven't had pay raises in years uh it's not great for the workers who are like all right like just give us this pay raise we can get back to work it's not great for the companies who are trying to struggle transitioning to manufacturing EVS but they don't know how to make money in EVS because they're Legacy autos and they've got way too much of a burden on a legacy business that has run into profit challenges thanks also to inflation to really profitably manufacture electric vehicles and they don't have the scale to do it yet it's a completely disaster but it is worth noting that today things are expected too get worse but you could always count on me reminding you that next Friday the 29th of September we will have a massive expiration on the first pre-sale round for the new Bruce Pro courses remember those are only 79 bucks right now there are many different numbers Pro courses they're on pre-sale they're going to start trickling out soon but we're ending the first pre-sale and so we'll have a price increase on those new verse Pro courses within the next week so buckle up for that check it out by going to meet kevin.com and learn more regarding now a migrant crisis what is happening thousands of migrants continued to cross the Rio Grande today from Mexico the deployment of military personnel is only for 90 days to help fill gaps more than 3 000 migrants Crossing yesterday in Eagle Pass up from 2700 Tuesday and a new influx starting to cross there early this morning the mayor of Eagle Pass has declared an emergency and last night the city council there voted to allow DPS to start making trespass arrest at a park where migrants have been Gathering rescinding a previous action that had kicked DPS out of the park trying to prevent and trying to use every tool that we have within our power as a state to try to prevent some of these unlawful Crossings and also focus on criminal activity that's taking place along the border and also outside around other surrounding areas and Border communities an example of that criminal activity take a look was posted today on social media by Lieutenant Olivares the picture is of 49 migrants who were found to stay locked up in the back of a poorly ventilated truck trailer near Laredo Now new DPS truck inspections they're now being done at Key border crossings and that razor wire cut by border patrol well that was replaced today at least two drownings were reported this week in the Rio Grande a three-year-old boy yesterday and the body of a man was pulled from the river this morning okay so we've got a migrant crisis if you haven't seen what's going on uh in in uh Eagle Texas it's a disaster okay basically you've got thousands of migrants flooding through the Border uh illegally okay why is this happening well that's because the Biden Administration granted a temporary protected status to about an additional 472 000 Venezuelans already in the United States this TPS program is basically designed to say look you've got massive problems in your country why don't we give you a temporary authorization to work in our country and at least you can survive this specifically relates to Venezuela and and even though the deadline to get into the country was July 31st people are still flooding through why because guess what people are just going to flood in and they're gonna be like I've been here since July 30th of course because then you can get a work permit and you can escape the hell that is going on down south what the hell is going on down south is I see I know what the sentiment is and I I don't blame the sentiment the American sentiment is our border is not a border we don't have a country without a border we should seal the border and we should call Americans to protest because we are facing an invasion and people I see it they say go make your own country better don't come over here and take our jobs these are very real sentiments and everybody's going to have their own opinion on this others on the other side are going to say you realize what's happening in Venezuela inflation is not five percent it is not eight percent it is not ten percent it's not 50 it is not a hundred percent prices aren't going up by double every single year they are going up by 400 their economy is collapsing there's food instability there's emergency service instability the Maduro government is is completely failing their monetary system is collapsing the international criminal court wants to bring humanitarian cases against Venezuelan for the massive humanitarian emergency over there lack of even basic access to water or nutrition on top of that you've got armed groups that basically just go around portraying and killing people it's hell now again is that our problem to solve and should we just have open borders is it completely our problem to solve should we go fail out Venezuela like we bail out other things as the World Police and should we therefore have a completely open border no of course not nobody would expect that but this is a little bit of why you've got a migrant crisis now going on again at Eagle gate Texas there is uh this uh it's not just Venezuela though there are others covered by TPS as well El Salvador has its TPS running through March 9th of 2025 Haiti through August 3rd 2024 Honduras through July 5th 2025 Nepal June 24 2025 Nicaragua oh too early Kevin July 5th 2025 Sudan April 19th 2025.
so a lot of different countries with with humanitarian crises have these TPS again that you're supposed to apply from abroad and legally enter the country with a work permit when you seek and receive Asylum however this is leading people to illegally try to get into the country that say they were here earlier uh than they actually were to additionally qualify for some of these uh of these temporary work permit authorizations uh you know obviously there are requirements as well that you are not a criminal when you come over here and background checks get done but the court systems and everything are so bogged uh and and uh overwhelmed that uh how how do we actually reasonably expect all of these uh background checks for being conducted well we don't hence why it feels like we have no border but I'll tell you one thing at least the Press Secretary of the United States is willing to talk to Americans about it he puts forth a wait no no no no no no no no you can't I'm answering okay we're gonna move no no no no no no no no no we're moving on great answer Peter I tried to answer the question you stopped me let's go okay what do you call it here at the White House didn't try to answer the questions talking about GOP trying to shut the government down yikes yikes um politics so delicious you want some deliciousness and politics give yourself life insurance in as little as five minutes but going to metcaven.com life metkevin.com life where you could now get life insurance in as little as five minutes that's what happens when you get involved in politics um but yeah it was sponsored by Weeble let's take a quick check of the uh pre-market this video is brought to you by Weeble uh yet another fantastic new promotion from Weeble and uh I really do like Weeble I use Weeble uh literally on a daily basis uh to understand what's going on quickly fantastic obviously it is a paid promotion in case that that wasn't already obvious but uh taking a quick look at the pre-market we have uh you've got let's see xpings up six percent 16 bucks right now Neo's at eight bucks man I remember that thing was at twenty dollars in January of 2022.
don't ask me why I remember that perfectly canoes down at 45 cents finally closed by short on that I had a little tiny teeny little tiny short on that one that worked out uh I usually don't short that much otherwise it doesn't seem like we got too terribly much movement uh in the pre-market here you've got uh stocks basically flat NASDAQ up about 45 bips Tesla up about 74.
jump on into those 10-year treasury yields what are we looking at you're looking at basically flat oil at the same time possibly up again about one percent as a Russia export ban is uh is is fueling some more fears again about uh yet again more uh more supply chain constraints uh for uh for oil on top of that I'd like to cover Daily Wealth again people seem to really enjoy the Daily Wealth email still you can sign up for those linked down below uh regarding the Daily Wealth email uh the the lesson today is business people think business is about money people always think this they're like Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin business about making dalahalas that's it wrong business is people that's it if you can solve people's problems and provide value to people you will make more you will succeed more you will grow more you will become great and successful what you do with that success is up to you for some people it's uh you know we don't have to go into what it is they're not good things other people it motivates more success and greatness ultimately though you've got to start with at least having the option of success and when you remember that business is about people you'd start succeeding and that does it for next wee
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