저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 현 시장 급락 속에서도 혁신 성장주에 대한 장기 낙관을 유지하며, 단기적으로는 경기침체와 소비 위축 위험이 커졌다고 진단한다. [시장 상황과 성과] 하락장은 혁신주에 대한 위험회피 때문이며, 현재 ARK 전략은 약 60% 하락 상태다. 코로나 저점부터 2021년 2월 고점까지는 약 358% 상승했다. 5년 복리 수익률은 최소 목표 수익률인 연 15%를 크게 상회하고, 3년 기준으로는 약 25%에 가깝다고 주장한다. [경기와 인플레이션] 중국과 유럽은 이미 경기침체 상태라고 보며, 미국 소비자 저축률이 2013년 이후 최저 수준이라 코로나 시기 부양금의 완충 효과가 사라졌다. 구매력 하락으로 경기침체 위험이 크게 높아졌고 소비자는 지출을 줄일 것으로 본다. 인플레이션 억제는 연준의 몫이며, 0.25%p씩 올리는 방식으로는 부족하다고 주장한다. [지정학·공급 충격] 러시아-우크라이나 사태로 원자재 공급 충격이 발생했고, 이는 전기차 등 혁신 대체재로의 수요 전환을 가속한다고 본다. [시장 지표] VIX는 30대 중반까지 올랐으며, 2018년 충격(40대 초반)이나 코로나(80)에 비해 아직 정점은 아닐 수 있다고 본다. 코로나 때와 달리 이번에는 전면적 경제 셧다운급 공포는 아니라고 평가한다. [자산 전망] 테슬라(최대 보유 종목)에 대해 유가 상승으로 전기차·자율주행 전환이 가속되어 유리하다고 본다. 인덱스 추종 투자 확산은 역사상 최대의 자본 误배분이라고 비판하며, 이는 혁신주 저평가로 이어진다고 주장한다. [정책 전망] 단기적으로 통화·재정 부양 모두 축소되고 있으며, 중간선거와 경기둔화 탓에 추가 재정 패키지 가능성은 매우 낮다고 본다. [리스크] 경기침체 심화, 소비 위축, 유가·원자재 충격, 연준의 긴축 지속이 주요 하방 요인이다. [결론] 단기 변동성과 경기 리스크는 크지만, 5년 이상 장기로 보면 혁신 성장주에 대한 수익 잠재력은 여전히 크다는 입장이다.
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i think the risk of recession has gone up dramatically as purchasing power is dropping dramatically in the u.s the consumer saving rate already is down to levels we have not seen since 2013 so that buffer that the stimulus payments created during the crisis that's gone hey guys welcome back to library of wealth today we have arc invest kathy wood giving us her prediction for a recession in the current market as well as the impact that the rising interest rates and the crashing in stock and crypto markets is having kathy will also discuss her financial prospects for the next few months as well as whether or not there is an end in sight she believes that the current trajectory is merely a foreshadowing of what is to come stay tuned to the end of the video to hear kathy's predictions regarding the current market meltdown recession inflation and the impact of interest rate hikes on financial markets don't forget to like and subscribe if you enjoy the content we do here on this channel let's get right into the video kathy it's been said that you are in the toughest battle of your career right now not only are you fighting against the market momentum you're also trying to halt huge losses and outflows so i want you to address this for us what is the message to investors here do you think that the street is just getting you wrong or is it time to concede that mistakes have been made so um let's put in perspective you mentioned 60 which is absolutely right we have been in a terrible bear market for innovation hard to understand but terrible uh bear market for innovation however if you look from the bottom of the virus to that peak in february of 21 we were up 358 why because innovation solves problems right now we're down 60 percent and we have a whole new set of problems certainly coming out of russia and ukraine if you look at our strategy over a five-year period look at the last five years i'm not quite sure what the numbers are but they are well above our minimum hurdle rate of return which is 15 at a compound annual rate and i think over three years we're closer to 25 so that that helps uh put our performance into perspective this is a period if you believe in innovation uh and and that innovation does solve problems we had a preview of that after the crisis when our strategies in in the span of a month many of the stocks were taken down 75 percent because either they were burning cash or they had low cash cushions but guess what those were the genomics companies that were going to get us out of the virus and today what do we have we have all kinds of problems the latest of which is russia ukraine and all of the commodities coming out of that area especially hitting europe wood says that china and europe are already in a recession without recessionary measures we've never seen such high inflation it's up to the fed to bring it under control and skillfully navigate the global economic and geopolitical challenges i think we're going to be looking at a lot of demand destruction and substitution into innovation electric vehicles as opposed to gas-powered vehicles would be the biggest one we also have labor shortages all over the place again automation this is innovation at its best and it's being turbocharged by this environment as the market is really hitting our stocks so i think if you were to look at the next five years you and and if you were to give us that five year investment time horizon we are the closest you'll find to a venture capital fund in the public equity markets if you were to give us that five years um given our expectations for growth in these new technologies i think we're going to see some spectacular returns have we seen peak market impact yet and what should investors be focusing on here it's very hard to say if we've seen peak market impact i know the markets are getting hit today typically the way we see the peak is through the vix the volatility index and it has moved up it's in the mid mid-30s i'm not sure what this morning is and the shock in 2018 and uh and the one before that got us into the low 40s of course the coronavirus got us to 80.
but we're getting close to those cathartic moments in the past i would be surprised if we do go to the coronavirus because remember levels because remember uh people were expecting a depression the whole world shut down this is not that this is going to cause a lot of problems from a purchasing power point to view i think the risk of recession has gone up dramatically as purchasing power is dropping dramatically in the u.s the consumer saving rate already is down to levels we have not seen since 2013 so that buffer that the stimulus payments created during the crisis that's gone and so consumers are probably going to pull back sentiments suggest they will i believe that this shift towards passive and benchmark sensitive investing meaning you know mimicking indexes which is kind of mindless is very backwards looking you know the stocks at the top of these indexes are there because of what has happened historically i believe this is the most massive misallocation of capital in the history of mankind we have ahead of us the the most magnificent opportunities because of the massive amount of innovation that's taking place and yet there's the the fear has pushed investors back to their benchmarks innovation solves problems we now have a lot more problems that 358 percent increase during the coronavirus is because right before it we were slammed we were slammed because of risk aversion once again everybody going back to their benchmarks and then everybody woke up one day and said wait a minute innovation is going to help us solve these problems and we certainly were beating that drum and anyone who got in near that low had a tremendous ride i feel we're back there again and now with the ukraine russian issues again we have many more problems uh and you know certainly when it comes to oil this is only going to accelerate the push towards electric vehicles and autonomous transport which is good for your number one holding tesla tesla right kathy goes on to say that within a year there has been a sudden restraint on both monetary stimulus and fiscal policy stimulus and there doesn't seem to be any in the near future now the potential for a tax package for financial relief kathy says is extremely low because of the midterm elections right around the corner as well as the economic downturn with rising gas prices as well as foreign conflicts some have been predicting that inflation would spiral out of control over the previous few years the fed has been overly optimistic about the prospect of lowering inflation they'll have to do a lot more than a quarter percentage point hike every few months if they want to remain ahead of the curve and slow the economy what do you think about kathy woods economic outline comment down below don't forget to like and subscribe this is library of wealth we'll see you in the next video you
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