저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체 조정이 연말까지 이어질 수 있으며, 시장은 이미 크게 하락했을 가능성이 있다. 경기 및 소비 흐름: 1분기 GDP가 마이너스를 기록했고, 팬데믹 이후 경제 재가동이 불안정하다. 미국은 소비 주도 경제라 소비자 신뢰가 꺾이면 경제가 큰 타격을 받는다. 저축 및 소비 여력: 스티뮬러스·대출 탕감 등으로 쌓였던 저축이 크게 줄었다. 개인저축률이 3월 6.2%로 2013년 이후 최저이며, 지출 여력이 수축될 구조다. 금리 및 연준 정책: 연준이 400bp 금리 인상을 하기엔 경기 둔화 상황이 제약이 된다. 75~100bp 정도는 가능하나 경제를 크게 해치지 않고 움직일 여지가 적다. 2019년식 연준 선회 시나리오 가능성도 언급. 지수 착시와 빅테크: 지수는 덜 빠졌지만 구글·마이크로소프트·애플·테슬라 4개 빅캡이 지수의 약 40%를 차지해 지수를 떠받치고 있다. 나머지 종목은 크게 하락한 상태(분산 현상). 따라서 지수에 대한 약세는 사실상 이 4개 종목에 대한 약세를 의미하며, 성장주는 이미 크게 하락해 '시장은 이미 크래시했을 수 있다'는 주장. 유동성 축소(QT): 연준이 자산을 매각해 유동성을 회수(양적긴축)하면 시장이 취약해지고 가격 민감도가 커진다. 경기 둔화 속에서 금리 인상과 유동성 회수가 동시에 오면 대응이 어렵다는 진단. 정부 개입 우려: 정부는 세액공제 등 인센티브 설계에는 강하지만, 시장 참여자로서 자본 흐름을 직접 결정하면 결과가 좋지 않다고 지적. 인플레이션: 연준은 인플레이션 억제에 집중하고 있으며, 미국 경제는 성장에 대해 상충되는 신호를 보내는 중. 연준은 과거보다 시장 반응에 덜 민감할 것으로 예상. 리스크: 소비 위축, 금리 인상 지속, QT 병행, 중국 봉쇄 및 공급망 차질(인텔 칩 부족 2024년까지 언급).
다듬은 글
nick cue the clip where sachs and i uh basically said this may happen in january of this year the risk is to a recession because if we over correct and the leading indicators all around the world tell us that their economies are weak then inflation may have actually been much more transitory than we thought that may actually mean that the market has effectively crashed already hey guys welcome back to library of wealth today we have chamath giving us his prediction for the current market chamath has been pretty accurate even predicting back in january the current crash and recessionary climate we're seeing now we'll take a look at that prediction along with his investment thesis and we'll see how that's going to affect the stock crypto and capital markets over the next few months in this interview chamath tells us why he believes we haven't seen the worst of it and with the increase in interest rates we'll see a recessionary correction happen in stock and capital markets up until the end of the year make sure to stay till the end of the video to hear what chamath's prediction for the current market crash inflation and how this recession will affect the financial markets and what's coming next we had negative gdp in q1 for a whole host of reasons that can effectively be summarized by the fact that we are still trying to restart an economy at the tail end of a pandemic and we're doing it in fits and starts and so we have these small bursts of incredible gdp which we had last year and then contractions in the economy the thing that's always been true about the united states is that we are a consumer driven economic engine which means that as long as people feel confident and they're buying things the economy tends to do well and we tend to move forward as a society when consumer confidence ebbs and people contract their spending we are in a world of hurt the last couple of years we've had a lot of consumer savings right we've had a lot of money that's been pent up in the system whether it's stimulus checks or you know loan forgiveness or all of this stuff has allowed people to feel much richer and as a result they've started to spend in dribs and drabs the problem now is that because prices are so high all of those savings have largely been depleted i just sent you guys a text in the group chat of what consumer spending looks like in consumer savings rather and it tells a really really scary story which is that the savings boom is largely over personal savings rate fell to 6.2 percent in march the lowest since 2013.
what does that mean well it means that the setup is there for us to sort of really contract what we are able to spend as a society one of the points that the billionaire investor really drives home is that the federal reserve has a difficult path moving forward because of the raising of interest rates by 400 basis points into a slowing economy i think now the odds even push further in this direction that we could have more quarters of negative gdp and all of a sudden we're back to what we talked about before which is a 2019 like scenario where the government or the fed specifically races forward to tackle inflation and in 2018 and 19 it turned out to be a head fake and by the way in 2019 the stock market ended up more than 30 up 32 or something like that crazy numbers here and by the way back then in 2019 china turned over it looked like it was going to be a fast-moving economic recovery for china and instead they they sort of slowed down we had the same thing here we have a quarter of negative gdp we have china in lockdowns we have every company that's that's in the manufacturing supply chain ecosystem telling the world that we don't really know what this is going to look like intel today actually said there's going to be shortages in chips through 2024 i think it could be a very difficult path ahead for the fed how do you raise rates 400 basis points into uh into a slowing economy you could raise basis 0.75 you know 75 bips maybe 100 bips but it gives them very little freedom to operate without really tanking the economy chamoth reveals something now that may be unsettling to some but he talks about the four big companies that are essentially keeping the market afloat but that could also mean that because of exactly how much they control and the numbers we're seeing that the market has already crashed that dynamic that that we're referring to in this tweet in that image is called dispersion which means you know people being be confused when you hear why are all these stocks down so much but the the indices are not down as much and it's exactly for the reason that david just said which is that underneath the surface the mega cap techs consume so much of the market cap of these indices so you know the googles the microsoft's the apples and the teslas those four just clog up an enormous percentage i think it's approaching 40 percent of these of these indices and so underneath the surface you have dispersion which means you have these tail of two kinds of stocks you have these four big mega caps and then you have everybody else and the mega caps are generating so much cash that they're just basically keeping the market afloat so at this point maybe there's a small silver lining and that silver lining is that to be bearish right now is effectively not being bearish these growth stocks because as we said they've been just decimated at this point to be bearish the indices means very specifically to be bearish those four names and only those four names and so that may actually mean that the market has effectively crashed already they knew it was coming in yeah market knew when we talked about the sales that bezos and musk did the you know when we saw when we sold equities we were saying like it's like you can't keep all of your money on the table all the time unless you have the durational wherewithal meaning you're just not time-bounded and you can just be there forever and not everybody's in that position after the fed raised rates by 50 basis points the effects of quantitative easing could be seen all across the market because they were buying securities and giving people the money chamath makes another prediction now as he believes we're about to see a period of quantitative tightening where they sell those same securities and get their money back an endowment could be in that position but individuals with no an endowment is not because they have to create distributions every year right there's talk about the mega endowments where they you know for sure you know you know ford or harvard may not need to do this but yeah smaller ones might actually be operating you know memorial sloan kettering might actually be operating their budget from it yeah but just to go back to david's point like it's a really difficult spot like what is the fed supposed to do so they're probably going to tighten 50 basis points in may that's relatively well expected we'll be we'll be able to digest that reasonably well but what do they say to david's point you know if they all of a sudden go on a crazy program of quantitative tightening right and what is that again that's when you know we were spend they were spending they were printing billions and billions of dollars going into the market buying securities and giving people the money right that's called quantitative easing now we're doing the opposite right they're selling and they want the money back now the problem is what that does is that removes liquidity from the market and when you remove liquidity from a market you actually make it a little bit more fragile a little bit more precarious a little bit more price sensitive and so it puts us in a very tough situation when the economy is slowing when these guys may be raising rates and then at the same time removing money from the system it may be a lot for all of us to handle and so i think that they're under a really difficult well and if you have decisions the federal government is great at setting incentives right and creating like tax credit programs and incentives for private enterprise to invest money but when they act as a direct market participant and start to actually direct capital flows and make decisions about how the capital market should work it never ends well the federal reserve is focused on keeping inflation under control which is making investors nervous as the us economy gives conflicting signals about growth in the market while you might expect more discussion about the fed holding off on raising interest rates all indications are that the fed will be less reactive to markets than in the recent past what do you think about chamath's take on the current market comment down below don't forget to like and subscribe this is library of wealth we'll see you in the next video you
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