저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK의 5대 플랫폼(로봇, 에너지저장, AI, 블록체인, 멀티오믹스) 융합으로 향후 5년간 실질 GDP 성장률이 3%에서 7%+로 가속되고, 인플레이션은 0% 이하로 하락할 것이라 주장. 트럼프 세제(즉시 비용처리)가 투자 붐을 촉발해 혁신주 연 40~45% 수익률 가능. 비트코인 강세 시나리오 150만 달러(상방 380만 달러, 포트폴리오 최적화 시 비중 19%), 테슬라 목표가 2,600달러(10년 전망 8.5조 달러 언급). 소외된 혁신주가 메가캡(Mag6)을 대체할 것이라 전망.
다듬은 글
in year 1. These are huge, huge incentives to invest now. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen. And you can see the difference here. The truly disruptive innovation we would expect. Now, we did this chart at the end of last year during the next 5 years to deliver a compound annual rate of return of roughly 50%.
Now, we've had some of that. So, maybe it's 40 to 45% compound annual rate of change. Uh, and this is in the public equity world. In the private world, uh, just wait until you see. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Over the course of the next 5 years, it is anticipated that the market will divide into two distinct groups.
Conventional businesses that are trying to stay up and new disruptors that will take the lead. Kathy Wood, the chief executive officer of Arc Invest, believes that the approximate value of Bitcoin might increase to anywhere between $1.5 million and $3.8 million during this changeover. She believes that money will shift away from overvalued legacy technology and into assets that actually represent innovation as artificial intelligence continues to change sectors and boost productivity.
Wood is at the core of this transition and he sees Bitcoin as both a hedge and a growth opportunity. He believes that Bitcoin has the ability to outperform every major asset class. In her warning, she warns that failing to take advantage of this rotation toward innovation could be one of the most significant financial blunders of the decade.
Here is a timeline of innovation and uh you can see it goes into the 1700s and our chief futurist Brett Winton in conjunction with academics pulled this together and what you're seeing here is the impact of innovation on productivity and you can see in this time we've had two great eras. The first one was in the late 1800s, early 1900s.
Telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine, huge boost in GDP growth. And in fact, prior to that, for the 400 years prior to that, real GDP growth had been averaging about 0.6% per year, very slow. After that, we went into a 125 year period of 3% real GDP growth. So, a five-fold increase from 0.6 to 3%.
You have to move uh to forward to today to see multiple innovation platforms evolving at the same time. So for the first time in 125 years this time there are five platforms not three major platforms and they involve 15 different technologies. This is very important in terms of how to research and analyze the world.
It's not going to be by sector or industry anymore. It is going to be by technology because technology is permeating every sector, every industry and blurring the lines between them. So you can see five here. We believe that the productivity uplift here is going to be so strong during the next 5 to 10 years.
And I think President Trump's tax package is going to turbocharge this. That real GDP growth will accelerate from that 3% where it has been for the last 125 years towards 7% plus. And we think that could be conservative. That's a little more than two times as opposed to the fivefold uplift before. So get ready.
But the other thing that we think is going to happen is that inflation is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations. We would not be surprised to see 0% inflation or less as we exit the tariffs here and and the way they're uh getting through the indexes and move forward into this new age of technological explosion.
One of the reasons for this explosion is not just the five platforms. So I should have named them robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing. Five major platforms involving 15 different technologies. And here you can see why we think we're going to see explosive growth.
It is the convergence between and among these technologies. So just to give you uh two examples of convergence in the autonomous mobility space that is the convergence of robotics, energy storage and artificial intelligence. Now, each one of those technologies or platforms is following its own scurve and we are moving into the sweet spot of the S-curve now that autonomous taxis are debuting in the case of Tesla in Austin and San Francisco.
Whimo's been there for a while. Just think about that. One Scurve feeding another Scurve feeding another Scurve. That's why we're going to see explosive growth. Another example is in the healthc care space. While the autonomous mobility space might be the biggest revenue generator in the short term, we believe that the most profound application of AI is in healthcare and that's the convergence of sequencing technologies and artificial intelligence and technologies like crisper gene editing.
And I think this is the sleeper. It's the most inefficiently priced part of the market. So you can see why it's going to be so important to set up research departments by technology, not by sector or industry. And on this last page here, here is what we think is going to happen to the equity market in terms of valuations.
So you can see in the turquoise there, that's the MAG Six. The Mag Six. Uh, it used to be called the Mag 7, but they threw Tesla out when it wasn't behaving like the rest of the MAG 6. So, you can see from 2019 to 2024, the MAG 6 tripled, they tripled in valuation in the market market cap. Whereas truly disruptive innovation in the purple at the bottom there went up only 30%.
And that's because investors were playing it safe and they were uh they were investing only in the largest most cashrich stocks in the market. That was a very difficult time for innovation for venture capital generally and you can see what we expect to happen between well really the next five years.
The uh mag six some of them will do well some are facing headwinds. Apples in the AI space are well documented and now we think it is truly disruptive innovation's time to shine in the market. I feel as though a rubber band has been stretching for the last four years and it let go with the election of Donald Trump.
That's when truly disruptive innovation started to to shine and the stock market started to broaden out from the very concentrated max six strategies into much more widespread disruptive innovation. In other words, risk appetite and time horizon is starting to extend here. And I think the tax package, especially the corporate tax cuts, which most people haven't focused on, full depreciation of structures first year they're put in service, full expensing of equipment, R&D domestic and software in year 1.
These are huge, huge incentives to invest now. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen. And you can see the difference here. the truly disruptive innovation we would expect. Now we did this chart at the end of last year during the next five years to deliver a compound annual rate of return of roughly 50%.
Now we've had some of that so maybe it's 40 to 45% compound annual rate of change. Uh and this is in the public equity world in the private world. Uh just wait until you see we are about to enter the most revolutionary period of innovation that has occurred in more than 100 years are five major technologies that are emerging to transform every business and stimulate exponential production.
According to Kathy Wood, these technologies are artificial intelligence, robots, energy storage, blockchain and multiomic sequencing. This tremendous convergence has the potential to significantly boost global GDP growth from 3% to 7%. As deflationary technology drives inflation closer and closer to zero, beginning with artificial intelligence driven autonomous taxis and progressing to GNID healthcare.
Each wave of invention is speeding the next level of innovation. According to Wood, the tide is turning and truly disruptive innovation is going to take center stage once more. This comes after years of investors flooding into the meggaap technology names. So, uh I'm going to just correct that a bit.
So, okay. Uh our official for bull case is 1.5 million. Okay. Now, what what got us to that 3.8 8 is using modern portfolio theory. Uh if we were to include uh bitcoin in portfolios at its optimal weight so maximizing the sharp ratio that would have provided that increment to 3.8 million. Now, believe it or not, that position size when we did that analysis was 19% of a diversified portfolio.
That's a lot. That's a lot. I'll tell you what I've told my children for a long time now is average in. I mean, you know, average in, you know, every month, every just average in and uh and and then I would leave it to them in terms of their comfort factor. I got it. Kathy, can I ask you about So Arc has
this ability to be a vehicle for a lot of folks that are just living their normal day-to-day lives and they want the answer to what is going to do well in the future and they can go and they can they can buy your ETFs and then they can participate in that future. There's a lot of people that are frustrated, palpably frustrated with an inability to sort of get ahead and break through, build wealth.
First, what is economically happening in in America that prevents so many people? What do you see number one? And then number two, what characteristics and responsibility do retail investors have? If they're going to yolo this and if they're going to buy this other thing and they're going to try to go further out on the risk spectrum, what is their responsibility so that there's no crying in the casino?
There are ways to access innovation and one of the question many ways of course uh we have packaged it up. We don't look anything like a traditional benchmark. So if they're diversifying, we're a very good uh source of diversification especially in trying to uh get exposure to innovation. We also have a venture fund.
One of the questions I get regularly from retail investors used to be why can't we access the private markets? We know more about those technologies than most of the institutions who are buying them. They have no idea. We're passionate about it. And so we've gotten more vocal and this administration is certainly uh becoming more vocal and and and um more more focused on this this particular idea because it is unamerican, right?
To you have to meet this. Well, you use chat GBT every day, but you can't buy OpenAI. Exactly. But you can buy a lottery ticket or you can bet on sports and it makes no sense and I do think it's going to change and I think yes Cassie there's a lot of market signals right now that are flashing green.
There's a lot of market signals that are flashing red. Do you feel that you have to position actively to all of those things or do you say you know what I can't control this I need to look 5 years out. So how do you manage the risk and how do you view the markets today? Yes. Uh so the risk question we obviously we get a lot because our portfolios are volatile.
They don't look like the benchmarks and uh when markets get uh uh into a bearish period investors tend to hug their benchmarks and we're moving in the opposite direction. Uh so I just want to say we do what we do and you know that's what our adviserss expect. They don't expect us to raise cash or or do anything.
They might that's their decision, right? In terms of what we do to control risk during bare markets, we will concentrate towards our highest conviction names. We have a scoring system based on management, execution, moat or barriers to entry, product, service, leadership, valuation importantly and thesis risk.
So uh with those scores we concentrate during bull markets which I do believe we are in a bull market that is broadening out. We tend to diversify because the IPOs start appearing again and um we have more information on some of the companies we've sold during the bare market. Give us the read on Elon's trillion dollar pay package.
You know what's so interesting about it? Uh and this happened with the first model we put out. We put out a model uh once a year of Tesla and with our price target five years out. We looked at his first package and we said that looks like our model and we looked at this one and we said that looks like our model and our model is
your 10-year forecast has Tesla at 8 and a half n trillion. Well, right and we we put out there five years. Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, a and I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there. So, our price target is 2600. I think it's at 330 today, something like that.
Exactly. New tax incentives proposed by President Trump have the potential to unleash one of the most significant waves of business investment in the history of modern times. Companies are now in possession of a compelling incentive to spend and develop immediately as a result of the fact that they are permitted to deduct the whole cost of structures, equipment, research, and software in the first year.
It is anticipated that these policies when combined with reduced corporation tax rates will hasten the expansion of frontier industries such as artificial intelligence, robots, and energy storage. During the next 5 years, Arin Invest anticipates that leaders in these areas might see yearly returns of 40 to 45% respectively.
As capital pours toward innovation, Kathy Wood predicts that the value of assets such as Bitcoin might reach 1.5 million per coin. She attributes this investment boom to a significant revaluation of assets such as Bitcoin. Additionally, she adds that these opportunities should not be restricted to institutions.
rather regular investors should have equal access to this new wave of prosperity. Tesla, which is at the core of her vision, has a possible stock price objective of $2,600. This target is fueled by the company's work in humanoid robotics that is powered by artificial intelligence and energy storage.
According to Wood, this convergence represents the next significant step forward in terms of productivity, economic progress, and the production of wealth over the long run.
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