저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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And I would say the other reason is again uh President Trump might don't know if this is true but might be able to pull off another Nixon in China and get a really good fair trade deal. Uh more of a win-win. Uh so it seems to us like that uh probability is rising. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance.
Kathy Wood shifts the focus to Ethereum, indicating that it may soon surpass Bitcoin in terms of performance. He believes that Ethereum is approaching a crucial phase in which it could surpass Bitcoin in terms of both momentum and relevance. This era could be characterized by network growth, institutional adoption, and expanding use cases in finance and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Considering that Bitcoin is beginning to settle, Wood believes that Ethereum is the environment that will power the next wave of innovation. Ethereum is becoming more than just a currency. It is becoming the foundation for the production of decentralized value. uh this is a a measure of risk and it's saying no problem.
This is the high yield spread spread relative to treasuries. And when it's low, it says no problem. Very few risks out there. Nothing to worry about. But as you can see, it's low until it shoots up. And um we we do worry about private credit and private equity. We think there's a lot of disruption in old mature companies and if private credit and equity have levered them up there are going to be some real problems out there and that's going to be in the old world not in the new world it is going to be because of the new world which is all about innovation and then I'll end here on Bitcoin to gold so the trend the uptrend of Bitcoin relative to gold despite recent performance has not been broken, at least not yet.
Um, we're very bullish on Bitcoin, as you know, uh, longer term. Uh, but gold is very recently has has given it a bit of competition. We we think they are both plays, if that's what uh, investors or speculators are betting on here, on the debasement of fiat currencies. uh and we think that both of them ultimately are going to rein in uh the the monetary policies that have been unhinged for the last 50 years.
Um uh but that will take time. Uh that will take time. Anyway, uh that's it. I know this was long. Uh but uh I I think as I've gone around the world in these last five weeks, and I mean around the world, uh I've gotten a real sense of, you know, how how much pessimism there is about the United States and uh being an insider, ju not an insider in terms of the administration, but just really watching policies and analyzing them instead of reading headlines.
I can tell you I think the surprises are going to be on the high side of expectations in terms of activity and on the low side of expectations in terms of inflation during the next few years. And I'll end on China here. We've gotten a lot of questions about China and um we post our trades every day.
So, as uh many know, we've been tiptoeing back in really focused on AI and autonomous mobility. Uh specifically, um we had pulled away completely. uh uh starting in uh November of 20 when Jack Ma was banished and other leaders were forced out and education or online education was nationalized and gaming was shut down and and so forth.
Um uh so it took a lot to for us to start moving back in. The first clue that we had that something might be changing out there was about 18 months ago roughly uh when President Xiinping uh started shifting his focus from common prosperity to new productive forces. Um which is very much about technology uh and China is really good when it comes to technology.
We're seeing it in robotics. Maybe they haven't gotten there in chips yet. Uh but I think they might get there. They've certainly imported a lot of talent back from the United States. Um in the early days, I remember I went to China in the 90s. They imported a lot of talent from uh um TSM. So they have been building this capability for some time.
Uh and I do think they're going to be a force. And the question for us from an innovation point of view is are they going to commoditize everything? Take all the margin out. Uh and very recently you've heard President Xi Ping talk about anti-involution. You know, anti stop turning in and and commoditizing everything uh and destroying the profit structures out there.
uh it was okay when they were competing in with exports but now they're destroying their own industry especially the EV industry um internally uh and then very recently he was much more explicit or one of his deputies was and basically said hey EV space stop destroying the pricing structure uh we will have no industry if you keep doing this okay now we're talking.
Uh so uh that's just a little glimpse at um what's moving us back uh towards China. And I would say the other reason is again uh President Trump might don't know if this is true but might be able to pull off another Nixon in China and get a really good fair trade deal. Uh more of a win-win. Uh so it seems to us like that uh probability is rising.
The cryptocurrency Bitcoin is currently at a crucial technical crossroad. In the wake of a 2.5% decline, market participants are keeping a close eye on the CME futures gap near $17,460. This is a level that frequently indicates where prices may rebound or fall even more. Analysts are warning that if Bitcoin falls below its recent lows, which are somewhere between $100,000 and $95,000, may indicate a decline in trust.
Despite the fact that the market closed the significant 11k gap the previous week, the present downturn reveals fragility in serves as a reminder to traders of how rapidly sentiment can alter even during strong cycles. while the statutory tax rate will stay at 21%. That's uh in fact, President Trump in his first term got that down from 35 to 21%.
How he did that, I will never know. Uh given the divide in in government. Uh but now what we have is an effective tax rate. when you take into account uh the depreciation that I've just mentioned uh dropping towards 10%. We we thought originally it was going to be 14% then 12% but it looks like it's dropping towards 10% which would put the US tax rate at really one of the lowest in the world lower than Ireland.
I think Ireland's still at 12 or 12 and a half%. I was looking at the Hong Kong rates. It's well known for its very low tax rates and uh we're below for larger corporations uh the Hong Kong tax rate. Uh and we do think that uh this is going to invite a huge amount of foreign direct investment. Uh and uh we think we'll see a manufacturing boom in the United States for the first time really in I'm going to say 30 years.
30 years. Um the rest of that time uh certainly since uh China went into the WTO in uh the early 2000s uh manufacturing has been effectively gutted from the United States. So this is this is going to be a real turnaround and uh uh we do think that this manufacturing while of course it's going to increase employment to some extent.
Uh it is going to be highly automated uh with AI, robotics, uh humanoid robots and other robots. Uh and we're probably going to become a more efficient manufacturer than China. uh at least from a unit labor cost point of view because we will be so much more automated. Uh China built up its manufacturing infrastructure uh in the last well really it was in the early 2000s.
Uh so that now is dated and of course they are investing aggressively in robotics as well. they have to uh especially for demographic reason re reasons but they also have a lot of sunk costs uh in their existing manufacturing infrastructure. So uh we do believe that for this reason uh the return on invested capital in the United States is going to increase relative to that in the rest of the world.
uh and this flies in the face of conventional wisdom uh because most uh investors, strategists, others uh think that the the dollar has lost it. The dollar is probably going to go up if what I just said is correct. If the returns on invested capital in the United States go up relative to those in the rest of the world.
Uh so stay tuned for that. Uh now on to monetary policy. Here we've pre prevent uh presented this chart before and you can see M2 uh the year-over-year growth rate has accelerated. It was dropping at a 5% rate in 2324 on a year-over-year basis and now it is up 5%. uh and you can see still really in the middle of uh the historical growth rate.
You can also see the CPI in green here. Um again a little stuck in the 2 and a half to 3% range. uh but when we think about how large the tariff increases have been and uh we see just a stuck rate uh I think that's a better than expected outcome and one of the reasons according to surveys that we've seen is businesses are eating the tariff increases more than consumers are uh and it is forcing them into uh more productivity enhance ing measures uh which of course means automation and AI.
So their margins have not gone down as much as we would have expected. So that's a little bit of a win-win if there is one in this situation. As I've said, um I'm not a big fan of tariffs at all. Uh they are regressive tax increases. Uh but if you give me the choice between uh tariffs with uh the tax uh changes that I just discussed and the massive deregulation that is taking place under uh this administration.
um that tradeoff is going to be worth it um for the reasons I just said in terms of returns on invested capital here in the United States. Uh so uh uh we think that the resolution here is going to be uh that the CPI will uh drop next year. Uh many people when I use the word um productivitydriven boom when I use the word boom uh they think okay a boom means more supply chain problems and uh more inflation.
Uh that is not what we mean at all. In fact the history if you look over the last 45 years the history has been the stronger the growth rate the lower the inflation. especially if it's uh a productivitydriven growth and we think that's exactly what we're going to see. Uh so we wouldn't be surprised to see the green line here um veer back towards zero.
Uh and as you see uh there have been other times when it's been at zero. One was a very bad time that was 0809. Uh and one was right before uh COVID really um caused the supply chain problems. So we have been veering uh over the last 101 15 years towards that 0% uh and I think that will be the big surprise next year.
Now I have been saying this for a while um the supply chain shock was it took so much longer to work through than we expected and of course now we have tariffs. So one excuse after another but uh I don't think there will be an excuse next year. Now here is true inflation. Uh again this uh is a a real time measure of inflation.
Consumer prices I think there well there are tens of thousands of uh goods and services priced in real time. uh on a more fundamental level, onchain specialist Kathy Wood cautions that the next cryptocurrency downturn might not be caused by Bitcoin havingss or changes in liquidity, but rather by a slowdown in the global economy itself.
The first real test of cryptocurrency under the weight of a recession in the real world could be a slump similar to those that occurred in 2001 or 2008. Both of which occurred before Bitcoin was invented. According to Wood, a decline in GDP, an increase in unemployment, and a tightening of expenditure might perhaps bring digital assets down to the same level as traditional markets.
The question that has to be answered right now is whether Bitcoin will behave like tech stocks that decline along with the economy or whether it will behave like gold which maintains its value even when everything else falls.
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