저자: Kevin · 외국인
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S&P500 90%가 하락 중이고 나스닥이 200일선 이탈, 경기침체 우려 제기. 실적 시즌 부진(CarMax EPS 0.79 vs 기대 1.4, Cracker Barrel 소비 둔화)과 유럽 인플레이션(독일 10.9%) 및 대규모 재정지출 속 연준의 긴축 지속(QT, 고금리)을 근거로 금리 고착과 주식·부동산 하락을 전망. 다만 인플레이션 기대치 하락이 향후 약 4개월 시차로 반영될 것이라는 점을 유일한 희망 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Larry Summers says the risks facing our economy are like those that faced Us in the summer of 2007 calling for increased anxiety being justified as we potentially walk into a 2008 and we thought the worst was already behind us can it go lower yes is it going lower yes 90 percent of s p 500 stocks today are declining the NASDAQ just fell under its 200-day moving average and in this video we're going to discuss exactly why what's going on what's causing the Carnage in the markets and am I selling am I leaving am I flip-flopping or am I just here to remind you that if you want a free Bank of America stock you can get a free Bank of America stock all you have to do is click the link down below right next to the link for the courses with a coupon code expiring Friday or the link to sign up for househag also with an expiration on Friday all right folks let's get into what's happening first we're going to talk about the economy then we're going to talk about the fed and we're going to talk about how to save this potential disaster because everything relates to the fed and its great reset that is worsening but I want to start by touching on the actual economy because this morning in my course member live stream I asked course members do you remember it I want to ask the same of you do you remember when back in January in February I was called Mr Fudd for bringing up every earnings call that I could showing how every single company was complaining well maybe not complaining I should say bragging about having a really big PP that is a really big amount of purchasing power do you remember that do you remember me saying look at all these companies talking about how they can raise prices to offset inflation because they have very large purchasing power they've got large PP well these peepees are now shrinking and instead are turning into a new form of pp called pricing pressure instead of pricing power we're starting to see pricing pressure consider this wind Resorts has seen a collapse of Chinese gambling Revenue to the tune of 90 and we're expected to stay at 90 percent declines or so basically 10 to 11 percent of gambling revenue for Macau for the rest of the year we're starting to see an earnings recession China is just way ahead of us but this isn't even a video about China so I figured rather than just considering China what can we do to look at some recent data that just came out at the start of earnings season you know the afternoon of September 27th and see how every day America is actually starting to see the waning of pricing pressure while I did nothing other than going directly to the earnings report for Cracker Barrel yes I kid you not I went to the Cracker Barrel earnings report and we went through it with chorus members this morning to understand what's happening to folks and there are a few reasons for that first of all Boomers and matures own a lot of real estate in fact they own real estate at twice the rate of Millennials and Boomers and matures they use that word okay it's really weird I highlighted yellow there okay that's theirs Boomers and matures apparently are holding back visits to even Cracker Barrel they're spending less money and when boomers are spending less money at Cracker Barrel you know we're starting to have the start to a bad earnings season here but it's not just that it's the shrinking of PP due to softer consumer demand higher costs and now instead of talking about how much pricing power we could pass on we have companies saying hey we're evaluating our cost recovery against the potential impact on the value perception and guest visitation okay this is the kind of stuff that we talk about in the course of live streams when we go deep it's not just Cracker Barrel okay but when we go deep into companies and we actually see uh oh we're starting to see a transition and that's what we're starting to see in earnings reports and earnings call a transition in the economy to one where we're worried about inflation for longer where companies are telling us we don't actually see job inflation going down if anything we see wage inflation continuing to go up and we still don't have certainty as to when demand go down it's a trifecta of Hell okay higher wages higher prices lower earnings so in case you're wondering why stocks are going down you need to look no further than Cracker Barrel but the good news is you can now get beer and wine at Cracker Barrel and they say they are now all in on culinary Innovation and no this is not sponsored by Cracker Barrel uh okay but seriously this is bad and this is just the beginning of earnings season don't believe me look at what happened with CarMax today CarMax is down 23 on what Bloomberg is calling a horrendous Miss wiping out over 2.3 billion dollars in market cap like that could you imagine losing 2.3 billion dollars like that Q2 missed so bad a lot of it is because of a substantially low Automotive commute consumer confidence uh right now and in fact I made a video just the other day about Tesla and I talked about how we're suffering from potentially or we're going to suffer from a potentially dangerous recession in autos I showed charts I show data about the recession that we're facing at autos and how this sort of pain is likely and sure enough Here Comes CarMax this morning warning about low consumer confidence their EPS came in at nearly half of the consensus at just 79 cents versus an expectation of 1.4 dollars with comp sales down 6.3 percent year over year it's bad the earnings season is starting bad and the stock market is preparing but it's not just that it's that at the same time as we're getting this bad news you're getting folks over at the FED laughing in our face I kid you not they're laughing at our face you have people like Bullard Mr James Bullard of the FED saying things like markets are finally making the right interpretation they're implying they like the pain they're seeing they're implying this is what needs to happen notice how every time we get a little bit of a bull rally they come out more aggressive they Crush every single bull market recovery that we have in 2022.
every single time things start going up they come out and start pooping on it to send things right back down because they're trying to destroy our wealth when they destroy our wealth we'll spend less money when we spend less money inflation will go down and then our economic Financial well our financial structures won't collapse kind of like what we're already starting to worry about in the fifth largest economy in the world the United Kingdom watch my video this morning that I made where I break down how near collapse the United Kingdom actually was just crazy absolutely crazy we're not even talking about China here yet which is the second largest economy in the world they're already in collapse all right that's complete disaster but Bullard this morning says that markets are finally appreciating the fair amount of additional moves and interest rate hikes that we have to provide and yesterday Neil kashikari from the FED came out and said it would be a mistake to reduce too early delaying prospects of a Fed u-turn markets this summer were pricing in this cherry-picked idea that we were going to have a U-turn in September I covered it on the channel I'm like oh Market's sick we're gonna have a U-turn in September I don't know let's see hopefully we get inflation to come down otherwise we're screwed inflation didn't come down inflation got worse not only did inflation get worse and all essentially measures of inflation broadened but now we're just getting truly hellish data out of countries like Germany Germany expected 10.2 inflation this morning and they got 10.9 almost 11 inflation which is really bad for what the forecast is for the ECB the forecast is 9.7 that'll probably come in at double digits too at the same time Chancellor Olaf Schultz set out a new 200 billion dollar stimulus package to help reduce the impacts of inflation on Energy prices this is the third or fourth package now I've lost count they're calling this the defensive Shield they are instituting a gas price break by cutting sales tax on fuel from 19 to 7 percent they plan to run these cuts through 2024 with expanded electricity subsidies and funding for nuclear plants the problem here is you have to think about this Europe has to rebuild their electrical infrastructure and their natural gas infrastructure because of Russia so it's not just oh no we have an interruption prices are going up it's the fact that we have to spend money on infrastructure which is stimulative remember when we stimulate or want to stimulate what do we do we spend money on stuff we give people jobs we build Bridges and highways nuclear power plants whatever look at what China's doing they're trying to stimulate what do they do they start at 53 000 infrastructure projects in 2022 here this year alone year today that's supposed to be stimulative but the problem is when you have inflation at 11 and you're stimulating all you're going to do even if you need to do it because you need energy Independence you can't rely on Russia anymore all you're going to do is make inflation worse for longer so to me this 200 billion Euro stimulus package and an energy package in Europe on top of basically 11 inflation following a 65 billion Euro package and following two more packages before that to me sounds a lot like Nancy Pelosi going we need a three trillion dollar infrastructure and stimulus plan because package one two three three and a half and four weren't enough it's crazy and it's very stimulative and unfortunately that just means more inflation for longer and that means our economy at the same time continues to suffer GDP this morning came in at an annualized decline of negative 0.6 that was the expectation we thought it was going to decline at negative point six percent and it did so anybody who says we're not in a recession at this point apparently isn't paying attention to the technical definition of a recession which means q1 negative Q2 negative unless we revise those higher Q3 is probably going to be negative as well we're potentially going to walk into a depression when we have a recession in excess of four to six quarters in a row we're on three and so even though you have folks over at the FED going no no we don't think we're in a recession yet sure the odds of a recession have heightened but we don't think there's a recession yet I think they're smoking crack and they're using this idea of oh there's no recession yet as an excuse to be more aggressive and fight inflation except now they've changed the definition via their great reset again they don't care even anymore about just inflation they still don't even know how they met want to measure inflation but they don't even care so much about inflation right now what they care about right now is crushing jobs they want to see unemployment go up and they want to see job openings go down because that in their opinion is going to actually be the conduit to get inflation down and that's because there are other methods of getting inflation down haven't worked yet the problem with that is what happened this morning well we got another terrible jobs report and when I mean terrible jobs report it was actually a really good jobs report instead of the expectation of 215 000 people losing their jobs 193 000 people lost their jobs that's a lot less than expected it's 22 000 fewer jobs lost than expected or claims than expected now the FED looks at that and says oh Labor's still strong let's hike more in fact James bullard's quotes this morning were literally unemployment claims came in super low that was his quote and says that the job market is extremely strong look they right now do not want anything to be super good or extremely strong they're gonna Crush jobs that's their goal right now and they're going to crush jobs at the same time as having crushing interest rates and at the same times conducting quantitative tightening the effects of quantitative tightening by the way we have not even yet seen quantitative tightening just began in May and quantitative tightening is terrible because really what quantitative tightening does is it means the Federal Reserve is going to purchase fewer bonds they're going to let Bonds mature when Bonds mature and they don't re-buy them what ends up happening is we have less demand for bonds which pushes down prices for bonds and drives up yields that process is just beginning this is the opposite of what we used to have where we were just buying as many bonds as possible and keeping yields low and really the problem with this is we have a lot of debt as a country so the more debt we have and the higher interest rates go and the higher we have to sort of re uh re-amortize some of this debt that we're not rolling off because we're not going to let everything roll off the more expensive it is for us to actually operate which means the less revenues the United States or other countries end up having to do other things which ultimately means a weaker economy again so all of these things are converging in a terrible way high interest rates High bond yields less revenue for the government an earnings recession because sentiment is down and fear is down while at the same time you have countries who can't get their act together like the United Kingdom who are like are we stimulating or not oh well we're on the edge of margin calls and Pension funds going bankrupt turn the money printers on and oh no no we're only going to do that for two weeks because that's bad we don't want to cause more inflation when the Eurozone is basically at 10 plus inflation this is exhausting and it's really scary and so a lot of folks are wondering like Kevin like like what what do you do like what do you do in in this kind of environment because we know that real estate is going to get crushed that's why I'm creating my startup house hack not to go buy real estate right now but to go bottom feed so we're gonna raise money for the next few months here uh where we'll have deadlines at the end of each month for people who want to invest and we're going to try to bring on non-accredited investors as well probably a minimum investment of somewhere around fifteen thousand dollars but we'll try to open that up to non-accredited investors who have 15K to invest and uh uh and our goal will be to bottom feed in real estate but there is no rush we are probably going to be in this these doldrums for years and so that does beg the question of does it make sense to sit in the market well let me give you the only piece of good news the only piece of good news that we have right now I hate to say it but this is it there's no other good news the earnings season is going to suck I mean sure you can back kevin.com life you can get a free Bank of America stock by going to the link down below you know you you can take advantage of the coupon code before it expires tomorrow but there's only one piece of good news that's it and in my opinion this is the only reason you would want to huddle your stocks and it's not Financial advice even though I passed my test to be a financial advisor and I'm becoming a registered financial advisor and I'm opening an investment advisory firm uh for for you know some products that we're launching which are going to be pretty awesome it's three ETFs um I can't give you Financial advice I can't solicit you to invest in house Sac the PPM has to do that at househack.com I can't give you any guarantees but this is what's giving me the only semblance of Hope to stay in the market you ready for this this is it this is it this is a chart of the five-year Break Even index of what we expect inflation will do unfortunately this lags it lags by about four months there's a four month lag for this I hate to say it but it's going to be painful until we actually start seeing manifest in actual inflation we're going to keep having pain we need to see inflation meaningfully come down because I don't believe the FED is actually going to be capable of getting jobs down I don't actually think they're going to get the unemployment rate to rise that much because the economy underlying even though it's going to look like a recession because we're going to grow less than we did in Prior years which makes sense because we're coming off a freaking bubble I don't know that we're going to get the unemployment goals the FED wants and so that means we're going to keep having pain until the inflation rate actually comes down and the inflation expectations are presently and this is good news at literally the lowest level we have seen in more than a year it doesn't get any lower than this it does not get any lower than this over the last year which is good it's good that inflation expectations are going straight down but unfortunately guess what the FED told us during the last fed meeting what did Jerome Powell tell us in my opinion nobody studies the Federal Reserve more than I do but then again you know I'm not trying to like Pat myself on the back here I just I just dream about the fed you know Jay pal and me we go back okay he's my daddy Jerome Powell told us in the last meeting that inflation expectations are actually good they're a check mark but what's more important right now is jobs so he's throwing cold water on this chart because he says they got to see job openings come down which sucks but if this chart comes true they'll flip flop back if we actually get inflation to plummet over the next six months they will flip-flop they will talk hard right now until the numbers come down but they will flip-flop when inflation comes down problem is how long is that going to take it's gonna be six months is it gonna be a year is inflation gonna plummet to five percent and then sit there for two years that would be bad too right these inflation expectations could imply that inflation is going to plummet to five percent really quickly but what if it sits there and flat lines for a year well then we have to deal with an aggressive fed for a very long period of time which again at the moment is terrible for stocks but will also Crush real estate the high 10-year treasury with mortgage rates now averaging over 6.7 percent and mortgage rates if you Google mortgage rates coming in for a credit score of 740 of 7.55 per Google Now even though the average is 6.7 the leading indicators are suggesting 7.5 is what we would expect for mortgage rates real estate markets can get crushed you're gonna Crush our wealth they will crush our wealth through stocks and real estate and hopefully inflation comes down that'll create opportunities to buy real estate and if you can't do it at scale I'll do it with yet how sec but we have to go through a lot of pain and it sucks thanks for watching if you found this helpful consider subscribing and good luck out there
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