저자: Kevin · 외국인
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피치의 미국 신용등급 강등(AAA+)은 예상된 조치로, 부채 문제와 정치적 불확실성이 반영된 것이라 설명. ADP 고용 32.4만 명 증가로 경기 침체 우려는 약화, 임금상승률 둔화(6.2%)는 긍정적. 은행권(BofA)도 경기침체 전망을 철회. 노동참가율은 과거 추세 이하라 인플레 없이 성장 여력이 있다고 봄. 강등에 따른 단기 주가 하락은 매수 기회일 수 있으며, 금리 상승 장기화는 부동산에 부담 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
oh no it finally happened the US is AAA credit rating was downgraded to AAA Plus by Fitch but is that really a sign of what's going on with the economy and are we actually trending towards recession or do the ADP numbers that just came out tell us something different well let's analyze all of this together so first many bears are already cheering that finally the US has had its credit rating downgraded and quite frankly you can't really blame your Fitch for downgrading the United States as credit rating after all they have a fancy way of saying 11th Hour resolutions have eroded confidence in our ability of the government to essentially not default on its debt it's the fancy way to basically say we're tired of the political drama and Congress and basically our politicians not getting off their awss and gay getting things done like managing our fiscal house Fitch isn't exactly wrong when they compare the United States to other AAA rated countries where other triple rated a countries have around 39.3 percent debt compared to their GDP I know that sounds complicated but think about it for a moment if our GDP is a hundred dollars and our debt is 39.3 dollars then we're about in line with other AAA rated countries whether those are you know Germany or other countries uh that are AAA rated when we compare to America though we go oh America's had over 100 percent debt to GDP and we expect I think we expect to be at a hundred and eighteen percent of debt to GDP by 2025.
that's not great now most of the AAA rated countries again averaging 39.3 Germany a little higher on that others a little lower on that but still most of them much lower than the United States and the drama we've had going on here are honestly reasonable that you would expect to downgrade here Fitch warned us that something like this was coming it happened in August of 2011 before when standard and Poor's the s p uh downgraded us as well and we could see how the market reacted then it expectedly wasn't good but it was transitory take a look this is Weeble and it shows you this drop right here which was actually already occurring because of the European sovereign debt crisis again big fancy words here let me just put it this way you've heard of the Euro right the euro currency used in Europe okay well in 2011 it was undergoing a massive real test of existence there was an existential crisis of is the Euro actually going to be able to survive are people actually going to trust this paper money and the Euro survival came into real question during this time that led to additional heart palpitations but if you zoom specifically past some of the red that started here at the beginning of August 2011 and you go specifically to August 5th you on August 5th had uh and this is on the average candlesticks mode so what I always like to do is when I want to know what actually happened that day I try to go to the non-average candlesticks that's generally important you had about a 0.62 percent drop uh on August 5th usually they make these announcements after the market closes so that means the next day what happened oh the NASDAQ fell six percent six percent the day after the s p downgraded the United States and guess what promptly happened after the sixth let's go back to our average candlesticks mind you this this right about here let's zoom out and as you can see this ended up being a whole load of nothing because over the next decade that would have been a great opportunity to potentially buy the dip as you can see the market trended up some pain over here in 2018 and then of course we get covet pain again and then somewhere over here we get our 2022 pain and then we have our Nike Swoosh recovery and what are we dropping today on the cues about one percent it's probably going to be a little bit of a red week thanks to this downgrade but what is the actual economy doing is this something we should really be fearful of or are the Bears winning here because theoretically a downgrade of our U.S credit rating should increase treasure yields excuse me I'm at like it's such a long day yesterday all right so my voice is a little lost then we traveled to two different states and saw about 15 different properties for my real estate startup house hack by the way we're probably going to be raising money for that uh with non-accredited investors very very soon so go to househack.com if you want to sign up for notifications on when that's ready but anyway uh we did have a slight move up on yields we have the 10-year moving up to 4.08 however this is happening at the same time as we have a larger treasury auction it just basically is reiterating what Fitch is saying anyway and that is we're issuing too much debt our fiscal house is a disaster in our government so it's really not a surprise we're getting downgraded here but it does reiterate this idea that oh we might end up seeing higher yields for longer which is also very important to pay attention to if you are a real estate investor because higher yields for longer could eventually start biting real estate prices more than what we saw in the second half of last year so it's a lot to pay attention to but there are going to be some great opportunities so what did we just get though about the economy well we had an estimate for an ADP labor report of 190 000 jobs and this is very important because it's also going to give us a guide of are we going to get inflation-free growth or are we going to grow and reanimate inflation after all that's what the Bears say the Bears say we're going to have growth and then we're going to reanimate inflation or we're going to get recessionary figures and then we are going to have inflation as we stimulate again that's the bear argument well the bear argument so far isn't looking very good Bank of America just became one of the first major Banks to withdraw their recession prediction they just flip-flopped on that today that's a massive flip no recession call anymore from Bank of America and we had a 190 000 job estimate for the ADP employment report and what did we get folks we got an unemployment or a well a jobs report uh for ADP this is the private sector jobs report we'll get the government version on Friday I like to call this the report to keep the government more accountable more accountable it's tough to keep them perfectly accountable and we should be able to but we can but anyway private sector employment increased 324 000 jobs in July oh no is the economy overheating are we going to have to raise rates oh well let's find out oh look at how look at this median change in annual pay 6.2 percent and for job Changers 10.2 percent how does that compare to last month well last month we were at 6.4 and 11.2 in other words we are decelerating faster and we are now at the lowest pace of job wage gains since November of 2021 this is fantastic because it means workers are still making more money but the rate of growth is slowing down you'll notice that it's larger employers that are adding fewer jobs actually they're Contracting and it's the smaller businesses that are adding to the labor force more with the bulk of the job gains coming from smaller establishments which is also interesting because the small firms are the ones offering the lowest pay increases just actually what you want to see and expectedly most of the jobs are coming from Leisure and Hospitality where we have contraction in manufacturing yes a lot of people look at manufacturing and say oh but is that a leading indicator of everything collapsing not necessarily especially since manufacturing is an interest rate sensitive industry look at the pain that you're seeing at an end face or potentially even a stock like Tesla these are very very interest rate sensitive Industries now of course they are off some of while Tesla at least is off some of its lows that it saw at the end of last year but usually what happens is you need interest rates to start falling and then you can see an explosion in manufacturing stocks again so that gives a potential opportunity to buy the dip off of some of these s p oh I'm sorry Fitch downgrade SMP downgrade was back in 2011.
so this is actually a very very strong report and it's quite frankly a good thing so congratulations to the US economy now some people wonder okay well how can you sustain this you can't keep this going like at some point it's going to lead to more inflation right not necessarily that's because we have a chart here that talks about Labor Force participation the red line is the trend line guess where we are oh my gosh unsurprisingly we are below Trend Bears have a really bad tendency of ignoring what the trend is Bears have a really bad tendency of just trying to compare to changes that only happen since covid and not comparing to pre-covered levels and when we actually compare to pre-covered levels we have more room to grow getting more people in the labor force without actually creating inflation because we're adding workers to the labor force where this is fantastic because when you increase the supply of labor you can expand an economy without high wage gains remember the target for wage gains is about three percent so just go above Target but we already know that even Jerome Powell is willing to be patient on this number so this is actually in my opinion all fantastic news The Fitch downgrade was expected it's not that big of a deal China is trying to stimulate but they have their own sets of problems I guess now they want to ban miners from using the internet from 10 pm to 6 a.m and I mean we all know that's when all the best gaming happens so it's kind of crazy I guess they're going to fall behind on all that rust gaming they could be doing uh okay anyway uh we talked about Bank of America revoking its inflation forecast we talked about Labor Force participation Rising we but still below prior trend talked about the ADP blow up we've got the jobs report coming out on Friday I'll be live for that at 5 30 a.m so stay tuned for the jobs report on Friday go to househack.com so you can sign up for notifications on when we're available to raise money from anyone we're still going to have that same one-to-one valuation which is extremely rare for a startup for a startup to raise money on a cash valuation is insane nobody does that it's insane it's my way of giving back to my subscribers because my goal is to take this company to IPO that's my hope so uh yes we have a little bit of a move up on treasuries and yes we would expect some pain in stocks because of this downgrade but then again it's probably a near-term buy the dip opportunity although we wonder how much the dip will continue to dip because right now it is dipping anyway thank you so much for watching hopefully this was insightful
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