Howard Marks Gives Critical Advice For Investing

요약 보기

투자 성과는 미래 예측보다 현재 시장 위치 이해와 감정 통제에서 나온다. 시장은 공포와 탐욕 사이를 오가며 대개 역방향으로 행동하게 된다. 상승장은 소수만 알아보는 1단계, 개선을 인지하는 2단계, 영원히 좋아질 것이라 믿는 3단계로 진행되며, 1단계에서 사고 3단계에서 조심해야 한다. 좋은 자산을 사는 것보다 적절한 시점과 가격에 사는 것이 핵심이다. 1970년대 Nifty50 사례는 고평가 우량주도 큰 손실을 줄 수 있음을 보여준다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. how do you prepare for the future if you don't know it and the answer is we may not know what lies ahead but we should understand where we are today and what that implies for the cycle and I think it's it's possible to improve investment results by making tactical decisions based on where we stand today and whether it calls for more aggressiveness or more defensiveness and these decisions do not have to be made on the basis of guesses about the future they can be made based on an understanding of the present where are we today and what does that imply for the future and what does that imply for how we should behave so the thing that gets most people into trouble in investing is not the inability to see the future it's the inability to control their own emotions and we'll talk a lot about that today investors swing like a pendulum between fear and greed and optimism or pessimism risk tolerance and risk aversion and usually they swing in the wrong direction and they warm to things as things go well and prices rise and they get afraid as things go poorly and prices fall and we want to try to do the opposite most investors behave procyclically they follow the cycle rather than anti-cyclical as I will describe and it's essential in my opinion to behave counter cyclically the cyclical ups and downs do not go on forever usually they feel like they will they feel like there's e a virtuous circle that will make things go well forever or a harmful Circle that will make them go badly forever but usually that's not the case usually we have ups and downs and 45 years ago somebody did me the favor of explaining to me gave me the the greatest gift the greatest regallo the three stages of the bull market and if you understand this you you're almost ready to become a professional the first stage when only a few exceptionally bright people under understand that there could be Improvement the second stage when most people understand that Improvement is actually taking place and the third stage when everybody believes that things will get better forever so if you buy in the first stage when most people don't see a better future when there's very little optimism included in asset prices you get a bargain and you can make a lot of money if you do it in if you buy in the second stage when everybody understands that Improvement is taking place you don't get a bargain you do okay you follow the cycle you buy in at a fair level but if you buy in the third stage when everybody thinks things will get better forever and when asset prices reflect a great deal of optimism you pay high prices which set you up for substantial losses so it it the interesting thing about investing is it's not what you do it's when you do it it's not what you buy it's when you buy it under what conditions and at what prices so the key to investing is not buying good things it's buying things well and I started at City Bank which was uh uh 50 years ago the bank bought the stocks of what we called the nifty50 the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America companies that were so terrific that it didn't matter what price you paid that was the official Theory and they were selling at very high prices because they were such wonderful companies and if you came in and you held them for five years my first five years in the business you lost almost all your money investing in the best companies in America so buying High quality assets is not the key because they were buying in the third stage the key is to understand where you are and to buy Assets in the first stage and be careful in the third stage that's a big part of today's message