저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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시장이 단기간 급등 후 하루 조정을 받은 것은 건전하다는 견해. 과도한 밸류에이션(PER 20배 초과)은 위험하며, 시장 PER은 역사적으로 10~20배 범위. 아시아 금융위기 같은 외생 충격은 시장을 흔들 수 있지만 개별 기업의 펀더멘털 변화와는 구분해야 함. 개인투자자는 잘 아는 소수 기업에 집중하고 기대수익 대비 위험을 따져야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you not not just like they went from overpriced to fairly priced some was fairly priced at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale you know highly regarded as one of wall Street's legendary money managers he ran Fidel's mellan fund from 77 to 90 at the end of his 13-year Helm it was up over 2700 and had become the world's mutual fund he remains On The Board of Trustees at the Fidelity group and his vice chairman of fidelity management and research his new CD rum is called the stock shop with Peter Lynch and its strategies to invest in the stock market with confidence all the profits for this go to charity I think he joins me now to talk about the remarkable record volume day on Wall Street and other matters of investing and I am very pleased to have him back at this table welcome back hey Charlie good to see you it's smart of me smart of me to schedule you day like this 3 months ago they said when do you want Lynch to come in I said let's get him on Tuesday something's going to happen in the market that week and so here we are glad to be here explain to me what's going on well we had a huge run I mean the market was 4,000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8,300 in August and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off I mean it's healthy in fact I mean I'd rather gone down 1,000 points than gone to 12,000 if you look at Japan Japan went from 5,000 to 15,000 on their Dow and it was fairly priced at 15,000 on earnings and everything else then it went to 40,000 and that caused 7 years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been in recession for 5 or six years because the market went up too high I mean if the market goes up too high I mean if if the market goes too high you're discounting earnings seven eight 10 years out there's Rel everything is overpriced yeah and that doesn't help anything the market since World War II has sold between 10 times earnings and 20 times earnings if you look at the Dow Jones of the S&P 5 if you add up all the companies and take the earnings you say there's a relationship and it follows McDonald's earnings have been terrific the last 30 years and the stock spent there's a direct relationship so the earnings of the S&P 500 have been between this range of 10 and 20 we were just about to go over the 20 which is the high end of the PE range there wasn't a lot of room left 20 is too is is at the top of high high it should ever be right it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation is about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we get a little bit over 20 now we have a very low inflation rate so if usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the PE of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12% you remember in the early ' 80s with an eight or9 p in the market so Dr Lynch says all of this has been good for us well I'm telling you it would not have been helpful it's like ative or I never thought I'd ever wish for the market to you not go up dramatically but let's just let's argue the market went to 16,000 tomorrow yeah basically there's earnings behind companies okay but I'm not arguing that I know that's true and stock market price ought to be dictated by earnings and earnings performance and future earnings potential right that's right I got that even I got that now let's just take this for me uh was the decline yesterday in a sense it let off some of this overvaluation the market was even overvalued at where it was and by letting it off then we got back to what was reasonable you know I would say fairly priced May for the larger companies they're now okay there might be some small companies we've had 3,000 companies come public the last four years that's to a business day some of those companies have gone down dramatically and and that's sort of a research Zone that average people in the stock shop that's we can find some people know a lot about there's 10,000 public companies a lot of them are very attractive no one's following them there's lots of people following IBM you got following companies that nobody else followed right I I'd like to go to see companies with unions or companies in trouble or companies that no one look hotels that had nice beds yeah you have to look a lot of them you P hose your wife War okay you got P One Imports my wife found that one too but but you have to look at 20 to find one it's just you don't go to the mall and find the stock I mean you have to say my God this sounds like it's good then you have to do some steps you have to do an organized method people are careful when they buy a toaster careful they're careful they buy they do they do some research but they don't do it with stock they called the broker or they see somebody at lunch and they said man I got this hot stock and you run right out and you spend $5,000 small investors y even wor they put an option international data wack they don't even own international data wack they have 90-day but Bill said it was good and they make a lot of money right and it's and it's like a casino so it's like a casino you get the same results as if there's more paperwork but just stay with me in terms of people who have bedazzled by what's happened right if you look at yesterday and you look at today right nothing nothing has happened in the fundamentals of Economics of any company right right but their stock may have gone down 10% yesterday and up five today one modest point to I mean every time you get you have to get a memory it's like it's very cold in the winter in some parts of the country you get a memory that Winter's coming something did really happen in Southeast Asia I mean those the cause of what happened in this market I think so that was the reminder saying by the were you know profits can go down I mean there is a downside but why was that the cause I mean did did what's happening in Southeast Asia affect the earnings potential of all these companies you're talking about it did because they can't sell their prod way no because those economies been growing double digit and all of a sudden now they're going because of Bank problems because they're over financed they're under lever I mean they're going to have they're going to have to BR their belts those part and then people said whoa maybe that'll become it'll happen China is now the fourth largest economy in the world maybe China can go in recession so this sort of woke people it was like a wakeup call saying whoa maybe there's a chance earning going go out I mean this is not a big deal for the United States when Mexico went down much more important but it sort of said people why was it much more important much more the United States than Thailand is or the Philippines or their economy is very important to us they're big consumer very important they're our neighbor a lot of people there that's very important when that went down that affected Latin America was more important so the recession of 1990 but it sort of reminded people they say wait a second there is a downside we have we've had nine recessions since World War II we'll have other ones tell me what took place overnight between yesterday at the close of market and today at the beginning Market what were the guys that you used to work with saying to each other at Fidelity and what were the people you know say for example IBM made a decision to buy back their stock and that presented some kind of push on the market and their stock went up six points well one thing you're trying to do say of all these public companies out there here's the company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well their competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you not not a like it went from overpriced to fairly priced so there was fairly priced at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale you know if you had been managing the mellin fund this morning you would have been buying like crazy I would have been researching like crazy I would been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happen this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if we have a recession there's nothing to do with and that's the kind of Kinds I trying to buy but let's say if a comp just think of this as being you say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much I going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong May I'll lose 30 40% that's a favor ratio you say if I'm right the Stock's not going to go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know okay so this morning you get up and you go in and you look at at those companies that fit you that you know something about you have to have an edge I mean let's say the cement industry goes from crummy to semi crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know when if you know the publishing industry you you some people have you have an edge you work I mean when if you last 30 years you work in the restaurant industry you would have seen Taco Bell you would have seen Saros you would have seen Pizza Hut you would have seen chilies you have seen these companies doing very well you should have bought those instead trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about I mean I know nothing about local area networking a lot of people are buying this Cisco they're buying the equipment saying we're going to root together all these peripherals and put together the servers well they but but that's not a bad buy because they own a huge percentage of their Market no but that was they're saying only a few people had that my God if it works for us other people try it then colleges will try it high schools will try it then they'll go overseas they knew they were early in the ball game and they should have been buying that company instead of out buying something they don't know anything about some oil drilling company I mean people have this tendency to always buy something they don't all you need is a Charlie all you need is a few good stocks this is your song this has been your song for a long time only buy what you know no but people are waking up in the morning say there's 5,000 companies out there which one should I buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies they ought to be able to lecture on them
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