저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 의사록의 긴축 신호와 JP모건 경고, 러시아-우크라이나 긴장 고조, 채권 자금 유입과 금리 하락을 짚는다. 인플레이션 피크 주장은 기저효과라며 반박하고, 기업 실적 가이던스 악화와 무수익 성장주 약세를 지적한다. 본인은 현금 약 90%, 금 2.5%, 롱 종목 소량 보유 중이며 BTC·나스닥 등 기술주 하락 흐름을 설명한다.
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hey everyone we kevin here i figured it out this is exactly what happens every time after we buy the dip in this stupid dumb convictionless market here we go all right folks well after that shell shock we've got a lot to talk about and we've got to go deep on some very important things first we're going to talk about of a fed minutes warning that actually came from jp morgan i thought this was very interesting we're going to talk about this we're going to talk about an evacuation happening in russia we're going to talk about which stocks are holding up and are they potentially a value trap we're going to talk about some critical levels that you've got to write down for ta we also have to talk about inflation and some special things that folks are trying to say oh inflational peak in april because it was so high last year but wait a minute is there a little bit more under the hood that we got to talk about regarding that talk about a little bit of a btc heads up a portfolio update small portfolio update for me and uh we'll talk about some other stocks hitting low so we got a lot to cover here let's get right into it this video is brought to you by masterworks by if you think we are potentially heading into rough times and you want to prepare yourself to make sure you're aware of potentially when the best buy back into stocks or how to get the best deal in real estate especially if the market starts rotating down in real estate you want to learn those before we potentially have rough times ahead in the markets so check that out via the link in the description below okay let's get into this so look we've known this since uh december january at this point and i've warned about this coming for earnings season that bad news is bad news and good news is also bad news and that's because some of the guidance that we're getting just isn't as peachy as we would hope and we're facing these potential fears that if growth slows at the same time as we have high inflation and the fed has to choose they might end up choosing to fight inflation pushing us into a forced recession which would not be good that's obviously not what we're looking for others are now trying to create stagflation etfs so that way you can invest your money instead of into like an innovation etf like kathy wood but into a stagflation etf that'll invest your money into a mix of gold real estate and uh and cash which is kind of surprising especially since mortgage rates are skyrocketing and uh some folks are starting to wonder is it possible that we could start seeing some slow down in real estate pricing but first let's talk about jp morgan and their warning about the minutes so kelsey barrow was on bloomberg this morning and she mentioned that the fed minutes in january were missing something that were talked about in december they did not include as many references to transitory gradual steadily and measured as we have previously had in other meetings now in december we saw the removal of things like transitory and some of these others but one thing that was present in the december meeting was a reference to how in the past they had reduced rates in a gradual and predictable manner that they had offloaded the balance sheet in a gradual and predictable manner this was missing from the january minutes and this is really because we are starting to see the federal reserve turn a little bit even the more dovish members are turning a little bit realizing we might have to get a little bit more aggressive now we're going to talk more about doves versus hawks but kelsey at jpm mentioned that the big thing the fed should do right now is if the market starts pricing in that 50 basis point hike in march the fed should absolutely take it the fed has to regain that credibility and show they can actually fight inflation and we're starting to see a little bit of this shift amongst the doves and the hawks remember the doves at the fed are folks who generally want to go slowly and measured and just want to wait for the data to improve and the hawks are those of the fed who are like no we got to deal with this we potentially have to vulcar the economy which is a reference to paul volcker in the 80s raising rates to like 18 percent to stamp out inflation forcing an ugly recession now what we heard obviously from bollard over the this last week here is that he wants rates to be one percent uh by the summer by july first but he's a hawk but over the last 24 to 36 hours we also heard from some of the more dovish folks like loretta mester and she says that rates should rise faster than after the great recession and says the fed will have to move more aggressively unless there's a material change in the economy aka all of a sudden inflation finally rotating down barkin who's also a dove previously said he has to be convinced for a 50 basis point hike but recently has started saying that uh-oh we are actually starting to see inflation broaden much beyond just autos and pandemic-related industries suggesting that maybe barking could actually get convinced and mary daley while she's been regularly telling us hey we don't want to move too abruptly to potentially destabilize the economy she is also keeping her eyes on those two dates coming up in march march 4th jobs report and march 10th cpi report to see if the fed's going to have to act substantially more aggressively than they had been not so great especially when you start seeing the doves soften you're probably going to get more of a unanimous aggression to deal with inflation it's probably too soon to tell if the fed's actually going to have any kind of split vote like the supreme court uh you know how they could split votes and then you see this dissension and then things become a little bit more unclear now the federal reserve did also announce that they're going to ban officials from trading stocks bonds and crypto which some folks on social media are reacting to with darn i wish they kept trading stocks because maybe they'd keep our stocks up then anyway in seriousness let's talk about russia briefly here there are currently disputes in europe about how to potentially sanction russia for example italy doesn't want energy sanctioned too much because it will contribute too much to rampant inflation that even if there is an invasion in ukraine italy's like okay but let's just maybe not sanction like oil gas and other issues with russia because we kind of need a cheaper flow of energy right now there's also discussion that or the latest estimates rather show that there might be as many as 190 000 troops near the border of ukraine which is a substantial increase from last week's estimate of 130 000 troops we're also seeing new images being taken of new helicopters being delivered uh to sites around ukrainian borders we also know that there are joint military exercises expected and scheduled for february 20th so it's possible that the new artillery being moved into place and gunships helicopter gunships are being in a place there for these exercises but we're also seeing new military field hospitals prop up which folks are saying well okay but maybe those hospitals are for training accidents and it's like all right all right maybe but some pretty big hospitals are popping up at the same time the us again is warning of imminent russian invasions with tanks cyber attacks and jets and you have separatists in the donetsk uh probably not saying that right i'm trying to do my best donna region evacuating as many as seven hundred 000 individuals and these are pro-russian individuals who live in eastern ukraine who are like it's done the gtfo we've also had rejections for bilateral and trilateral talks in this particular region between leaders and uh and country leaders so regional leaders and country leaders it's a problem when talks start breaking down and people start gtf owing not so good now we're starting to see a little bit of interesting activity in bonds and that we're actually seeing bond deals start falling now we've talked about this in prior days here but one thing that happened here was we actually just attracted 7.4 billion dollars of foreign money into our treasury bonds this is one of the largest inflows that we've seen over the last decade and oftentimes this this could be a sign of a fear and when you get these sort of inflows especially uh into the 10-year treasury you will see yields come down that's because as more people buy these bonds the price of the bonds goes up driving that yield down so even though the stock market is falling and folks like to say oh well when yields go up you know tech goes down tech's still going down today despite the fact that yields are going down so that relationship doesn't work too well especially because we have to consider that for and flight to safety aspect now obviously inflation fears are continuing and there are a lot of folks that are referencing this idea that oh well inflation was so high the cpi reading year over year was so high in april of 2021 then maybe maybe what that means is we'll have a lower read this april that that maybe that's when we're going to see the p so unfortunately you have to go under the hood a little bit more here to to understand this but first we got to talk about masterworks and then i'll show you the trick here in 2019 jeff bezos spot hurting the word radio number two by ed russia for 52 million dollars that's right 52 million dollars and you might think that's a lot for one painting but what if i told you this price made total sense the problem is we're not all like jeff bezos but i did find this incredible investing app that allows you to invest in art it allows you to invest like jeff without needing billionaire status and it's masterworks.io the first and only art investing platform here's how they do it masterworks buys artwork ranging from one million dollars to 30 million dollars by artists like banksy and picasso then they securitize them with the sec which basically means send them over slice and dice them and allow you to buy shares on their site in an initial offering similar to an ipo once you've bought a part of your favorite piece you can then hold on to it until the piece is sold at which point you can cash out or you can sell your shares on a secondary market to someone else beforehand so that sounds interesting to you when you're looking at diversifying your portfolio away from the madness of the stock market a bit it's important that you check out masterworks.io now there's a link in the description down below and i'm going to show you how easy it is to skip the wait list so here's what you want to do you want to go jump on over to a browser and just type in masterworks dot art slash kevin that's masterworks dot art kevin and if you click this you're going to be able to click this button right here that says skip the wait list and now we're going to fill out this information so i'm going to go ahead and throw in some of this information right here to submit my application kevin and i'll throw in my email address it's nice and easy to do here we'll make a quick password that we can remember and then once this is filled out we're simply going to press the button right here that's request invitation now that was in real time there my submission there we go now we're going to fill out a little bit about our investor portfolio so let's go ahead and throw in here how much i'd consider investing how about you know the usual there we go and uh when are we planning to invest this well of course immediately most of the time we're looking to diversify we want to get this done right away now the next step here is to schedule a member interview masterworks likes to have one-on-one conversations with their investors and this is really cool because it gives you an opportunity to learn more about the mechanics of masterworks and to speak to an art expert art market expert really really important and in this call you can learn about the different artists to markets their cultural significances and how they've appreciated over time their historical performance you can also learn about the market-driven thesis as to why masterworks selected certain artworks now once you're approved there are many things that you can do the most important obviously is finding something that you're interested in and you can view a lot of information here you could pop open the sec special purpose of vehicle documents so that way you can see exactly what's been registered with the sec you could review the deal sheet on the history of this particular artwork this one here from richter from germany and you can see the initial offering in this but maybe you don't want to pick this one you prefer the investment thesis of the same artist from whom jeff bezos invested in art and uh you could read the investment thesis on russia's painting here so you can take a look at the various different options that you have here once you are approved so go check out masterworks in the link down below use my link and you'll get to skip the wait list well thanks masterworks for that so let's get back to this here look at this okay folks what they're doing let's zoom in here this is the same lewis fred all this is the nominal cpi read remember this is a basket that starts at essentially a hundred and then how much does the basket cost year after year after year month after month and the basket doesn't cost a hundred dollars anymore the basket now costs 281 dollars right so anyway what some folks are saying is hey well inflation really started popping off in april of last year right here you see this increasing slope here and what we can do is we can actually edit this graph just to see this a little bit easier here let's do percent change from a year ago there we go and then let's get a little bit closer so that way you could get a little bit of a better idea in terms of what people are thinking so see this blast off right here in march and april right here this explosion in inflation well folks think that maybe when we lap that here and we hit april and march here and i know i'm blocking it a little bit there we go when we hit april and march over here maybe we'll we'll have a lower inflation read because we will be comparing to these already higher points the problem though folks is this section right here is high not because inflation was necessarily high here it's because we were comparing back into this hole look at that hole see april over here this is the percent change right here so of course when you compare into this whole of the pandemic you're going to have a high inflationary read right here so this this opium unfortunately that oh well inflation is definitely going to peak because look how high it was uh you know this these spikes that we're going to have to compare to that might call for lower inflation no that was just us coming out of a hole now we got to report the inflation that's coming on top of the hole it's it's a disaster so so you know as usual when it comes to economics things can go so deep uh and it's very simple for folks just to look at like surface level information and say oh see there's good news look i i want that to be good news too that's why i researched this i'm like is that good news and then i look i go nope can't use that as good news it's exhausting anyway uh this morning we had roku complain about a lack of tv panels and expensive shipping costs they also said that said something that no investor wants to hear this is obviously a very big kathy wood position here this is something that no innovation investor wants to hear is the following quote we've taken our foot off the investment gas pedal essentially just to get by right now in other words they're not investing in innovation or capex even though they're an innovation company because they're dealing with all these inflationary costs draftkings gave us low guidance on users and higher costs it's all about the guide with earnings right now fox news i mean this is no surprise they're passing out more inflation fud talking about how our defense department is and the wall street journal did a piece on this like two weeks ago so i feel like they're two weeks late on this but whatever uh about how essentially the defense department is burning through the money that our military has much faster because they don't hedge against inflation and they're getting screwed so unless biden gives the military a larger budget our military is going to start having to cut thanks to inflation now redfin also complained about higher construction costs which is something that we've heard earlier this week as well from the national association of home builders unfortunately redfin is still in that eye buyer world where they're still doing flips and these are money losing flips that they're doing and the costs of materials are just absolutely destroying them remember zillow got out of this business and that's actually treating the zillow stock quite well ford briefly talked about the idea of maybe considering splitting the ford electric vehicle business from the ford ice business but they seem so confused about how to reorganize whether to fully reorganize or to internally reorganize but a lot of people are just throwing their hands up wondering what are you doing for and then investing in a tesla now i do want to give a small quick little update on my portfolio look obviously since i sold a lot of my stocks that i was holding are down substantially more one of the ones that's up a little bit more from when i sold but fractionally only is n phase uh end phase is sitting around maybe like four dollars higher than what i sold i mean we're talking about two percent here but otherwise i hate to say it tesla's way down so far his way down uh uh robin hood's down matter ports down whatever it just it sucks i feel so bad you know and i know that there are individuals out there who are like kevin how how could you how could you say buy the dip and then sell look i never told people to buy the dip while i was selling right i was buying the dip because that's what i was programmed to do i always buy the dip until all of a sudden it hit me that this j-power crap is probably going to lead to a really bad 20 22 long story short right and this potential cyclical change that we have to deal with now i'm waiting for a u-turn to where i decided uh-uh i gotta get out and i told everybody about that within 36 hours i i i don't know i ca i don't feel like i can do any better than that but a very brief update on my position so uh and and i hate being transparent because then people like over analyze everything i do and they're like oh well if you would waited a day you would have gotten a better deal or oh well if you did this did you shut up like people are so wanting to comment on other people and it's so toxic and nauseating because it's like you get off your ass and do something you know people just want to be little keyboard bullies anyway so uh i did buy some long positions and not much i don't want to be more than ten percent long and so right now my portfolio consists of two uh 7.5 percent long shares that doesn't mean i won't trade them it just means that those are bullish long means bullish shares i am 2.5 in gold i'm zero percent short and the rest is cash so that puts me at about 89 to 90 cash still right now and uh and really building a little bit of a long position is not a signal at all that we've hit any indication of a u-turn because we haven't i just decided i didn't want to be 100 cash or 95 cash i wanted to be more 90 cash so i built a little bit of a long a little bit of gold uh and uh and then the rest is cash so uh just a little bit of an update for you there now let's do a little bit of technicals okay so first let's look at btc here and now one of the things i got to say about btc is we're in a disgusting no man's land here okay and i hate this i will say that first of all hats off to btc it has performed substantially better than the qqq uh over the last uh you know i would say since since probably the beginning of january here i mean look at this from the beginning of january from january 1st btc is moved from about 45 000 to about 40 000 okay so let's go 40 divided by 45 that means we're down about 11 percent here right now qqq which is our our technology index here we go to the day chart and we go to jan 1 our qqq on jan 3 because there is no opening on january it was about 3.99 now we're sitting at 343 343 hey like the the studios that does halo anyway 3.99 uh that puts us down about 14 so pretty wild to see btc actually outperform qqq when qqq the nasdaq is supposed to be a diversified way of getting exposure to tech and uh and btc is generally deemed to be more of a risk asset well btc is kicking the nasdaq's butt that's wild absolutely wild now going back to btc because we do know that the qq is again still sitting well under the 200-day moving average in fact we just had a cross here by the way a little bit of a death cross i'm just seeing this now look at that oh wow take a peek here you got the death cross here between the 50-day moving average moving below the 100-day moving average death cross sign right here let's jump on over to btc btc did break our 42 000 support that's not ideal uh oops i think i actually deleted the 42 000 actually accidentally before i made this video but anyway we had a shelf over here at 42 which we rode over here in january we rode it briefly here in mid february and uh now we're in this no man's land where if we don't get back to 42 it is quite possible that we could get back into this 37 region which i have to say i'm very impressed that we did not break well below i mean with the exception of liquidation days where we went down to 33k we didn't break as low as we did in the last down cycle where we went in the summer down to about 28k so in my opinion this is a higher low for btc relatively a bullish thing for btc and especially since btc isn't moving as miserably as qqq i just have to say i'm impressed it's very very good let's look at tesla on the one hour here we're gonna jump on over to tesla on the one hour it's obviously down three percent today but what i want to show on the one hour here for tesla is this 880 line is really weakening it is really weakening it is continuing to get tested and we continue to break below it this is not a good sign for tesla we regularly hit see look here we are in december bouncing off of the 880 uh we we've regularly bounced on numerous days here on january 26th we bounce in the pre-market the aftermarket during the day we regularly bounce off this 880.
but and sometimes we rubber band around it whatever but this break off of the 880 not so bullish for tesla yesterday we were dancing around that 880 and i actually bought a little bit of tesla slightly above the 880 because i thought that's all right we've got a support line here we're breaking that now obviously we're getting worse news here from ukraine and so on so maybe that's why or people are getting more and more pissed off about the fed but whatever it's pissing me off uh but it's just the market that we're in now the spy another thing that's nasty over here at the spy is if we zoom out to the day chart you're gonna get my fibonacci retracement now let's zoom in onto the day chart this is the fib retrace here and one of the things that's uh oh and yeah there we go one of the things that's nasty here is that we regularly regularly have been bouncing between the 38.2 and the 61 line you can see we continue to get rejected at the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and despite the fact that we rallied out of the end of january lows where we were essentially at the zero level which is at about 4 20.
we rallied right out of those to about 61.8 got rejected fell down under the 50 all the way down to 38.2 ran right back up to the 61.8 got rejected again went to go chill out at the 38.2 visited 23 6 came back to 38.2 back to 23 6. this is not good especially since right now we just had a little wick down to potentially that 430 support level which is not actually on the fib it is just an intermediary support level that we have here and so there's a fear that if we break this 430 level again and this fibonacci breaks down that we're heading right back to 420 which is possible if there are escalations in uh in ukraine that we're going to see that 420 get revisited again a firm on the day chart folks there's no support there's just no support i hate to say there is no support for profitless companies right now lemonade maybe has some support uh you know around this like 25 26 region right here but come on folks we've played this game before look at the channel that we drew between 44 and 39 and it got laughed off and we ended up moving down again until we get confirmation that we can actually bounce off some floors here on these small caps or money losers stay away i hate to say it palantir is no exception so far unfortunately i hate to say it no exception it's breaking all of the levels that we have and it's sad and those are red flags you know technical levels aren't impervious they're just a warning that when they get broken you gotta move the same thing is true about matterport i hate to say it it's a great company but the profit-less companies are just getting smoke matterport is actually up about four and a half percent today but who cares when this is what your chart looks like that's like cheering about robin hood being up which it's not today and this is the day chart that you're looking up for robinhood it's miserable do we maybe have a floor somewhere around twelve dollars maybe but this is what you're betting on we tried a floor before we tried a floor at forty dollars and this was a pretty solid floor sorry profitless just is not what people care about in this market right now and it sucks anyway uh one of the things that i do want to talk about is companies that are actually doing well though right now and this is kind of mind-blowing to me is look at this for example dave and busters not only getting off of that 30 as a floor but actually riding high here macy's a little off some of the highs that we've seen but also riding stable carnival cruise lines also riding stable above their support now kathy wood calls these value traps and i got something to say about kathy wood in just a moment and she might actually be right about these being value traps but what i call these because you know i looked at dave and busters and just to give you some numbers here they're trading for less than 20 times 20 22 earnings which is great but they've only got 118 million dollars of cash on hand they've got 271 million dollars of current liabilities and they've got billions of dollars in deferred liabilities from like rent concessions and things i i i don't understand that they're heavily weighted under debt and the fact that they're doing so well in an environment where interest rates are expected to go up blows my mind but what it tells me is that people might be investing in carnival macy's and dave buster's and some of these recovery plays because they're hopeful they're looking at the consumer they're seeing the consumers spend more money than ever before going out they're seeing bank of america credit card data telling us that people are spending money like crazy out uh and about at travel and retail look at airbnb airbnb is another one people are so enthusiastic about this economy and the spend but this becomes a problem and a concern when people stop spending this money right this falls apart when people stop spending this money and it is something to be concerned about uh so whatever right now these are a little bit of a safe haven okay what about kathy wood what was i gonna say well i was gonna say that kathy you know there's there's this twitter account prepared remarks they wrote that kathy wood owns 19 million shares of t-doc okay t-doc that's that's one of her biggest holdings next to like tesla and roku and that right so tdoc is one of kathy's biggest holdings and they looked at the daily volume here and they mentioned that kathy owns 19 million shares and the daily volume here is anywhere between two and a half to four million shares per day and they say that if she took 25 of the daily volume or like 800 000 or so 700 000 shares a day and liquidated tdoc it would take her an entire month to get out of the tdoc position because she has so many shares that would be devastating for tdoc this is kind of an interesting point uh anyway so some companies hitting all-time lows we got roblox doordash hitting all-time lows we've got uh some stocks like pound here so far hitting winter lows summer of 2020 lows redfin roku draftking sunrun square winter 2020 lows etsy there's a lot of pain out there there's just a lot of pain and it's unfortunate uh that that this pain continues we have a little bit of a rebound happening here today is also options expiration day and so you're seeing this increased volatility from options it uh it is so much so that like i mentioned earlier bloomberg's talking about how this is this is like pretty much guaranteed going to be a down day for the spy uh s p 500 you see this often on off options expiration day uh not always though not always sometimes you get to like the quad witching days and there's less of a correlation to there but you're certainly going to see increased volatility and that's what we're seeing here today i think a big test here about how much fear this market has is going to be how do we end up closing the day and if you're watching this video later go look how did we close did the market rally into the close did we get above that 23 6 fibonacci where spies above 434 and maybe rallying into the close above it or did we fall to that 430 level as as as people closing out positions with funds prior to the three-day weekend i don't know let me know what right next to that link for masterworks and folks if you want to join me in those everyday market open live streams see what i'm thinking about first thing in the morning any program will get you into those linked down below
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