Dan Ives: "There is a discount to Tesla stock"

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테슬라 주식은 머스크의 트위터 인수 관련 불확실성으로 할인 구간이며, 장기 투자자에게는 매수 기회라는 결론. Dan Ives는 머스크가 테슬라를 되돌릴 것이며 지금이 매수 기회라고 주장했고, 진행자는 5년 차트 기준 할인으로 보고 장기 관점을 유지한다고 설명함. 핵심 리스크로 머스크의 테슬라 지분 매도(약 40억 달러 매도 언급, 보유 지분 약 800억 달러 가치), 연속된 조사와 재판(사기 관련 소송 등), 트위터 논란으로 인한 기관 투자자 이탈 우려가 제시됨. Dan Ives는 기존 목표가 250달러 상향 가능성을 시사했으나 이후 탑픽에서 제외한 이력을 언급. 기관이 테슬라에 투자하려면 연 200만 대 생산 경로, 배터리(4680) 기술 격차, 자사주 매입 등이 필요하다고 주장. 진행자 전망: 2030년 이전 주가 10배 가능성 언급, 단기 투자자에게는 공포스러운 구간이라고 인정. 트위터 광고 플랫폼 개선 필요성과 머스크의 경영 스타일, 혁신 발표 일정의 부작용(시간표가 역풍을 부를 수 있음)에 대한 논의도 포함됨. 출연자 전망 요약: 장기 강세, 단기 리스크 인정.

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01. Dan Ive says he's a Tesla Super Bowl on Tom Nash's podcast he said Elon will turn her around and that this is can you believe us a buying opportunity take a listen he will find a way he will find a way to turn this around but now with Twitter there's a discount to Tesla stock now he did mean this in a negative a for short term investors but I'm a long-term investor so to me this is a positive discount and Dan says he is a Super Bowl law of Tesla this is a pretty good interview you will want to listen to the whole thing let's dive in I wanted to really go out there and explain how most institutional ambassadors view it now a lot of times like retail investors that are so knowledgeable they'll be like no you're you're you're you you're missing the broader picture what could happen between Twitter and Tessa over the long I don't disagree with that my issue I think many others is like dude they're done in other words like the frustration the overhang on Tesla has gotten to a point where frustrations boiled up if you are a long-term investor then all of this is just noise this doesn't change anything at all other than present a buying opportunity it looks not that at all when you look at the five-year chart I know if you look at a one-year chart it doesn't look that good but we are in this for the long term I mean Tom been the biggest Elon supporter in test for the last decade I mean there's no one that loves Tessa more believes in the vision more I in my opinion's most disruptive technology stock in the world you know over the next five to ten years I think even that is going to be quite an understatement when we look at this video back 10 years from now I believe Tesla will have full self driving by then and energy storage and perhaps as many as 20 million Vehicles delivered and produced per year and the Optimus robot also in development or perhaps with some functionality already by then I think Tesla is going to go down as one of the most important companies in all of history you know musk is is viewed so at another level of any other innovator in the world yup and for a very good reason is because Elon Musk is able to do things that governments cannot do like putting reusable Rockets in the space no government has been able to do that yeah and the problem is when he starts to come down into the Twitter ecosystem going back and forth this you know controversial treat after tweet look he's not no longer a a user he owns a platform so my whole point is okay the selling the stock we get it right it's been well talked about in terms of that frustration it's still a small amount and of course this tanked the stock badly that's just four billion dollars Elon has what something like 80 billion dollars worth of stock at roughly current prices imagine if he sells 40 more billion dollars now that's something not to look forward to but I don't think that's a problem at all because BuyBacks will certainly offset whatever amount Elon is going to sell later than he sells in large volume I think the bigger word is like hey what social media experts and like your whole network focus on Twitter Focus back on Tessa I'm not saying he can't balance he's balanced SpaceX and and Tesla for many years the problem here is that it's hit a boiling point look I totally see where Dan is coming from and he's peaking as an Institutional Investor and he's strictly speaking as a Tesla shareholder he's not speaking as someone who really likes let's say Elon Musk on a personal level and who would understand Elon Musk on a person level I think those these two things are very different you see I understand Elon is going to do his thing and unfortunately if you are not okay with that well then who do you want to run Tesla who would be better than Elon I don't think you know there are some good candidates potentially but I don't think any of them would be as good as Elon even if Elon is running two uh major other companies SpaceX and Twitter and then there are other ones like neurolink and there is boring a company with tunnels purely just as a Tesla stock investor yeah of course I would want all of elon's time to be spent on Tesla that would be the ideal case but he's like the Albert Einstein of our day he will just do whatever he wants or otherwise you just don't have him work as CEO I mean he doesn't even want to be the CEO guys he's doing it because he thinks this is the right thing to do basically where especially coming out of like a very look a very good 3Q relative to what's happening industry but still miss the delivery number how to lower it you're starting to see a little Bloom come off the rows in terms of institutional investors you don't need another stumble and then the perception is if there's another stumble ah because of Twitter if you are not prepared for a lot of stumbling I have bad news for you here's just one investigation here's two more announced just like what a day between each other these are two separate investigations by the way one is a criminal one scary prison here's another one a senator calling for investigation into Twitter a senator and if that was not enough here's a 50 billion dollar trial that Elon is going through just right now there's gonna be no end for this well eventually it's going to mostly settle down but this is the new normal really but I think that sometime before 2030 this is going to all calm down cool down slow down settle down but if you are a short-term tassel stuck investor then it's going to be scary I think you cannot ignore overhands that are created because you're real that's I mean that I come at the end of the day that's the fundamental thing is that is that these are real overhangs and it's trying to base could be like and look we're still buy rated 250 price that we took it off to the reason we took out also a top picks was is like top pictures like could something in the near term significantly outperform if I believe that there's a significant overhead that started to get worse I think that you know that's ultimately that was the trigger there in terms of why we took it off then I really think about it that overhang is about as legitimate as these investigations into full self-driving I mean clearly it is beta and that overhangs the bot is legitimate as this trial can you believe that this is the amount of paperwork that goes into this sham trial someone who has just nine Tesla shares is doing this to Elon Musk so yes the problem is here it is in our way but it's just a matter of time I believe until all of this goes away until this trial goes away until this overhang goes away I really think it's just a matter of time I don't think it's going to be very fast though but I believe it will go away and even if it doesn't Tesla has such strong fundamentals that I believe Tesla stock will be so fine long term in fact I believe it told 10x before the end of 2030 at least but in terms of reaction stuff and people take like oh a bull turn embarrassed it's not bull turn barrier it's a super bull just being like hey there's a lie in the sand this needs to end otherwise this is what could happen hassle's talk will 10x is what I believe will happen to Tesla stock long term because I'm a long-term investor but if you are a short-term investor of course I see that pain the key man risk it's just too much of it with this I I it's never been an issue because that's the biggest asset is must but now with Twitter there's a discount to Tesla's stock I think everyone is making everything very complicated this talk about institutional investors and Twitter overhang this is what we are doing this is what I like to do I look at Tesla and I think it's actually really simple you see when I look at the chart of Tesla I see a discount if you don't see it it's because you are not looking at the five-year chart if you look at the five-year chart it's obvious that started to be reflected because if you said to me right now Tesla 200 to share like what's musk worth like per share I'd say of any company in in the in the market he as a percent of the stock is is an exorbitantly more than anyone no CEO founder is anywhere near him 100 True maybe Steve Jobs would be another person who I was relatively you know sort of maybe you could compare but still not even close are you right it's getting so much overlooked now because of the drama that there's Twitter reality yeah but I personally think he'll turn to it around I couldn't really see it happening I mean I'm very active on Twitter you are active on Twitter I can see a different vibe on Twitter than before in this like FTX collapse drama the way it's been covered on Twitter more than anywhere else interestingly I am finding myself using Twitter more now is it the same for you as well and it also seems that on Twitter no one is like holding anything back on YouTube and other platforms it feels like people are often holding back they are watching what they are saying and for good reason because if you say the wrong thing you will be demonetized Shadow ban or even Wars whole Channel suspended that's kind of a post Elon non-moderated environment I covered Twitter as a public com the biggest problem with Twitter no one disputes how much is on we're all on Twitter yeah how do you monetize it how do you get advertised on it yeah and how do you balance content moderation yeah with advertisers those are the Rubik's Cubes it's actually really simple you see I spend money on Facebook and YouTube and Instagram and I put money and I generated millions of dollars from those platforms I have never heard anyone and definitely none of my friends whoever said oh I put 500 000 into Twitter ads and I got 2 million out you never hear that story it's happening now with Tick Tock but Twitter's ad platform it is absolutely terrible so if you can fix a platform so that if you can run a direct response and then you can actually make sales from that because the ad platform is not completely broken then you will have advertisers even if you don't have a big brand small companies will flock people that advertise they just want to make money you fix that and they will flood in so you also need a lot of traffic for example YouTube actually is great for advertising you can Target people relatively well and it's kind of easy to do that in relatively speaking so for Twitter just do the same enable long-form video content and then pay creators that will create great content and you will help people flogging in and then advertised to flogging in as well but if I told you 10 years ago or 15 years ago you could be making money off of rockets privatizing NASA and electric cars you would have been very like anybody I've been I would have been very skeptical I mean he will find a way he will find a way to turn this around eventually that is yes absolutely elonville eventually turning around it's just a matter of time and before that happens it's going to be painful for us Tesla stock investors unless you are excited about buying opportunities here's what Dan thinks has to happen for institutional investors to start taking Tesla really seriously and invest a lot of money one you you gotta show the path and we could argue price point to 2 million units in 2023 because when you start to get toward 2 million units the scale of the story starts to change dramatically so I think that's one and then I'm not saying if it's 2.1 1.9 but I'm just trying generally like in the name of that that neighbor that just sounds like another Catalyst that is inevitably going to happen two Battery Technology show me innovations that now are further and further separating Tesla from everyone else and that's going to give them more of a leg on margins an overall of emote and financial performance in what's now starting to be like a rigidity the arm Trace that's two hopefully if you can get those 4680 batteries quickly scaled up and three like do a buyback because it goes back to the whole idea show me that you who we like all all I have to do is like you're selling stocks selling stock this I'm defending you know I'm just walking yeah walk the walk walk to us yeah dude don't talk to walk to Walk yeah a buyback will inevitably happen when is another question but it will happens just a matter of time at this point this is Tesla's earnings report and look at all this cash right here 21 billion dollars remember this is end of Q3 Q4 how much cash do you think Tesla will have then and how much cash do you think it will generate next year and then a year after that and then a year after rap do you think Tesla is going to keep a hundred billion dollars of cash on hand I don't think that's productive at all that cash has to go somewhere and there are only so many gigafactories that you can build eventually Tesla will do BuyBacks hence the discount and and the other thing that I view is like from an Institutional perspective is like the technology days and The Innovation days are great awesome they're huge parts of the longer term tests of story I do think sometimes from like an investor perspective their not phenomenally timed they they sometimes like they put too much like stuff out there where then like the haters and the shorts be like oh you said you're gonna do this and now it's two years later and we're not that so also I think like putting timelines on things um is a negative and there's like you could talk about things but when you start to put timelines on like oh we should have this over next year or over the next 18 months and that that puts artificial timelines which sometimes create overhangs in the store sometimes you know Dan and the other Wall Street guys and institutional investors they speak in college they speak in this that is difficult to understand they do things that are difficult to justify when you really think about uh things in a simple way you know like in a way that makes obvious sense the way it should be really done you know what I mean translation buying opportunity and these are 48 reasons why I only own Tesla stock in my stock portfolio make sure to like And subscribe if you haven't yet and always do that in the beginning of a video that really helps the YouTube algorithm and I'll see you in the next one thank you so much for watching