Intel’s cloud business ‘potentially losing share to AMD’: Analyst

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인텔 4Q 실적은 클라이언트·데이터센터는 상회했으나 가이던스가 약함. 클라우드/데이터센터 매출 -5%로 AMD에 점유율을 잃는 중으로 해석. 반도체 공급 회복은 1년 이상 걸리며 사파이어 래피즈는 2023 상반기 본격 양산. 과도한 CAPEX는 장기 투자로 옹호하나 단기 마진 압박. 반도체 지수는 3년간 200% 상승 후 조정은 과도하며 구조적 수요는 여전히 강하다고 봄.

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01. welcome back intel reported quarterly results after market closed just a few moments ago earlier today and that stock is down in the after hours session for more we have john vin keeping capital markets managing director and senior research analyst here with us to discuss john just taking a look at these results it looks like intel's weaker than expected earnings forecast is what investors are reacting to with a stock down now but what was your biggest takeaway from these results yeah a little bit of a mixed bag here uh for sure the quarter was uh really really strong um being on top and bottom line uh client computing and data center group were both above expectations but certainly um kind of the miss on the uh the outlook was a little bit weaker revenues were a little bit higher eps was a little bit lower um you know gross margins was also a little bit lower i i would say that one of the other kind of key takeaways from the results was that the cloud data center outlook was uh was a little bit weaker yesterday we've seen microsoft azure uh up over 40 growth but intel's cloud data center group uh revenues are only down five percent um seems to suggest to me that they're potentially still losing share to amd at this point so how do they change that around i mean this is what they're going to be asked but if that's the case i mean you've got these investors right now who are concerned about you know not only this first quarter but i don't want to use the word losing the race but how do they catch up it's um unfortunately can just take a lot of time right um you know pat gelsinger the ceo has put forth a uh very ambitious road map uh to kind of get back to parity with amd and regain share but unfortunately it's going to take them at least over a year they do have a new chip sapphire rapids that's supposed to ramp at the end of the year but that's not really going to be a meaningful volume production until the first half of 2023 so it's going to take quite a bit of time for them to turn things around and i think there's still some uncertainty whether that's actually going to happen because emd is not going to sit on its laurels and they're going to continue to innovate as well do you think intel is spending too much relative to the share it may gain through these efforts to regain share from amd um i actually do not um you know as a former bull you know last year for most of the year we had an over rating and as a former bull i think pat and the new management team is doing everything you'd want you'd want them to invest aggressively at this point in time you do want them to kind of uh invest heavily in capex and demonstrate that they've got their commitment to not only get to parity with amd but to regain share you know obviously near term you know the optics aren't going to look good the margins are going to be lower the increase in capex is going to hit the gross margins um but from an investment perspective uh i think intel is doing all the right things it's just going to take time to turn things around um from you know the standpoint of the company though there were analysts who are critical of you know their build-out plans and if i'm understanding correctly if i'm not correct so that we do get a good picture of this it's almost as if they're dead if they do damned if they don't because they do have to as you point out catch up to their competitor um but yet analysts get very upset when they spend as aggressively as they are to try and do that yeah um you know i think that's why we're at a second weight rating you know this is um it's going to be a long term investments um you know many investors especially minneapolis on the sell side are they're really focused on kind of near-term uh optics right you know if you if you can't get the quarter right you can't manage margins and you can't manage profitability while turning things around you're typically not going to get rewarded for some of these longer-term investments but if you do have a much longer term horizon you know i think you're going to be aligned with what management's doing here i'm wondering you of course cover a number of companies in the semiconductor space i'm wondering with the sell-off that we've seen recently across tech stocks and across semiconductors underperforming the broader market do you think this has been overdone um i certainly think so you know and i understand it right you know if you look at the socks over a longer period of time right we've had three years of significant appreciation of the socks that's up over 200 of the last three years never in the history of the socks have we had four years of appreciation and if 2022 is an up year for the sox that would be a fourth year right so obviously investors are getting really nervous in terms of where we are in the semi cycle uh at this point in time however uh we're still very constructive at this point in time we think um you know this cycle is different i think the demand creation that the pandemic has created with kind of the work from home cloud data center growth 5g infrastructure i think these are you know secular drivers that we've never had so we still are looking for a really strong year of growth and certainly we think things are uh a little bit overdone here all right we'll leave it there for now john vin is key bank capital markets managing director and senior research analyst and we thank you so much for your time