저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 곤들락은 비트코인을 단기 모멘텀 투기 자산으로 보고 지금은 매수를 권하지 않으며, 더 낮은 가격(약 2.5만 달러)에서 살 기회를 기다리라고 말함. 비트코인 가격 흐름: 1년 전 약 4천 달러에서 최고 약 6.5만 달러까지 상승(약 16배), 이후 6.5만 달러 부근 이중 천장 후 하락, 11월 소폭 신고점 후 지지 실패. 당시 약 4.5만 달러로 고점 대비 약 2만 달러 하락. 곤들락 투자 철학: 본인은 모멘텀 투자자가 아니라 반(反)모멘텀 성향, 저평가된 싼 자산을 선호하며 너무 일찍 파는 편이라고 설명. 채권 경력도 본인 성향(겁이 많은 '비겁함의 문화')과 맞는다고 언급. 빅테크(FANG): 밸류에이션이 좋지 않아 모멘텀 투자자에게만 맞는다고 평가. 모멘텀 투자 비유: 룰렛 전략처럼 한동안 돈을 벌다가 0이나 더블0에서 한 번에 무너지는 구조이며, 모멘텀 투자는 결국 화려하게 끝나는 경향이 있다고 설명. NFT 및 예술: NFT는 가치가 0에서 수천만 달러로 급등한 과열 현상으로 본인과 무관하다고 평가. 부동산처럼 최고 품질 자산을 사야 안정적으로 오른다는 입장. 비디오아트는 5년 뒤에도 기억에 남는 작품이 드물다고 언급. 미국 중간선거: 선거가 시장에 큰 영향을 준 적은 드물다고 봄. 민주당 단일 정당 통치가 내부 분열로 어려움을 겪고 있어, 정부가 분점(의회 또는 상원 공화당 전환)될 가능성이 높으며 월가는 이를 선호할 것이라고 전망.
다듬은 글
welcome back yahoo finances ryan sauzi recently sat down for an exclusive interview with double line founder and ceo jeffrey gundlach for his take on crypto and nfts take a look i was very positive on bitcoin a year ago it was around i think it was it was as low as like 4 000 or something is that possible my am i one year off here but at any rate i i thought i was a bull because i thought it would go up 4x and it obviously went up a lot more than that it went up more like 16x or something like that at the peak but it peaked out and is double topped at 65 000 or so it actually put in a minor new high in november taking out the high that was in place around april or so but it didn't hold and that's never a good sign so i i think bitcoin is for speculators at the present moment i would advise against bitcoin i i think you may get an opportunity to buy it i think now it's about 45 000 so about 20 000 off the highs volatile is all get out maybe you should buy it at 25 000.
have you ever owned bitcoin no no no that's i that just nodded my dna i i you know i i gravita i didn't really gravitate to bonds in my career i got i got shoved in there uh you know bonds were a necessary evil and somebody had to do it but it turned out that it fit my my culture of cowardice if you will i've i i'm not very i'm not a momentum investor at all and in fact i'm sort of an anti-momentum investor and i think bitcoin is for momentum investors only just like just like at this point i would say the fangs are for momentum investors only um the valuation is is not good and so i i'd be looking i like buying stuff that's cheap and i usually sell it too early but that's kind of where the easy money is uh for the you do better as a momentum investor except if you're a moment investor i think it's kind of like being a a roulette wheel player that somehow has a strategy that works as long as it doesn't come up on the zero or double zero and it's it's you know you're making money making money and then eventually you know you get a double zero and and you're busted and i think that's what happens with momentum investing they they tend to they tend to you know uh go out in a blaze of glory you're also known uh as being an astute art uh investor many just just looking around your eyes just beautiful um do you find it almost funny to see how far nfts have come i mean you're owning things in this alternate universe yeah i i think it's uh i think it's sort of shocking how you know bitcoin started at i don't know what the first price was but a lot of people got in thousand bucks okay and and it took a while to get to 60 000 the nft thing went from worthless to what 69 million 96 million in in it went from i don't know what an nft is to it's worth 70 million and so uh that's certainly not for me that's that's for momentum investors on large doses of steroids so i'm not i'm not interested in that uh i i think i i i that's another bond thing i like buying quality i've never really loved junky stuff so i believe when it comes to art just like when it comes to real estate you should really buy the highest quality and you know so they can appreciate very steadily like real estate appreciates very steadily there's drawdowns you know when the recession comes you have problems in all asset markets but i would i i don't i've seen one nft thing that i thought was interesting what was that i i i can't even remember it was there it's this guy who's kind of famous for it and there was something about there's all these things moving i didn't spend a lot of time looking at it but i thought it was interesting it's sort of like in in the world of art i almost never like video art and i've seen like two that i thought were good and when it comes to that the value the the the definition of good when it comes to video art is that five years later you can remember it there's so much video art that five minutes five minutes later you can't remember it but there's been actually about three of them now that i've i've very strongly remember and so if it makes it it's like if someone's a poet you know if someone says that they write poetry you should ask them to give you a couplet and if they say they can't remember one they don't write good poetry to complain uh jeffrey we're nearing the midterm election season what do you what do you think the market impact could be of a contentious midterm election season never it always seems to me that the elections never seem uh to have that big of a market impact uh the markets probably would are probably looking forward to the midterm elections because it's going to glue up the gears of government a little bit more i'm quite sure that you're not going to have the ability you know we have basically democrat one party rule um very hard time keeping it together because there's dissension within the party but wall street and finance seems to always like it when there's a split in the government and i think it's uh i haven't looked at the betting markets but it's got to be very high probability that at least the house or the senate flips to a republican so on the margin i think the marks would probably like that as always we we always learn so much from you jeffrey gundlach thank you for joining now fans we greatly appreciate you hosting us okay brian thanks for coming thank you
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