저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 긴축이 늦어지면 결국 급격한 금리 인상이 불가피해지고, 이는 경기침체 위험으로 이어질 수 있다는 진단. 12월 FOMC 의사록은 연준이 기자회견보다 훨씬 빠른 긴축(양적완화 조기 종료, 올해 3회 금리 인상, 대차대조표 축소 조기 시작)을 시사해 시장이 재조정 중이라고 설명. 전체 상승장(everything rally)은 중앙은행 유동성 공급과 '하락 시 매수'라는 행동 편향에 기반했으며, 유동성이 줄면 이 흐름이 흔들릴 수 있다고 봄. 주식은 상대적 관점에서 여전히 다른 자산보다 우위라는 평가. 연준이 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)이라고 너무 오래 보면서 뒤처졌고, 이후 급격히 긴축하는 것이 가장 큰 리스크. 실적과 유동성에 타격이 된다는 설명. 연준이 지금 일찍 움직이는 것이 필요하다고 주장. 경기침체 가능성에 대해 과거 연준이 크게 늦은 적이 없었고, 늦게 긴축해 경기침체를 피한 사례는 없다며 침체 위험이 '절대적으로' 존재한다고 언급. 다만 연준이 비판에 밀려 방향을 틀 가능성도 있으나, 인플레이션이 진정되지 않으면 U턴은 어렵다고 봄. 기업 가격 설정과 임금 협상, 자발적 이직률 등에서 인플레이션의 행동적 변화 증거가 나타나고 있어 연준의 과제가 더 커졌다고 평가. 2021년은 시장에 좋았지만 2022년 정책·경제 전망은 더 복잡하고 불확실하다고 진단. 1월 6일 의사당 공격 이후에도 시장이 크게 반응하지 않은 것은 유동성이 모든 것을 떠받쳤기 때문이며, 미국 민주주의는 유지될 것이라고 봄. 다만 정치 환경이 노동참여율 제고·생산성 향상 같은 '소프트 인프라' 추진을 방해할 수 있어 우려된다고 함. 오미크론으로 인한 공급 측 차질과 중국의 제로 코로나 정책이 공급망 교란을 키울 것이라고 봄. 완전고용 회복을 위해서는 보육 등 정책이 필요하며 정치적 합의가 관건이라는 입장. 정책 실수만 피하면 경제는 여전히 성장 요인이 충분하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
but also importantly this hour we are going to be watching for president joe biden he is expected to speak about the risks to american democracy that of course one year after thousands of protesters attacked the capital in an effort to overturn legitimate election results you see there the podium where he will be speaking in just a bit we will be taking those remarks live and reflecting in other ways on this somber anniversary today but in the meantime we have to talk about the reflections that the market has been making over the past 24 hours given the release of those fed minutes yesterday i want to bring in mohamed el-erian he's president of queen's college at cambridge and of course an advisor to allianz as well muhammad thank you so much for being here this morning i want to talk about this recalibration that we seem to be seeing in the wake of the minutes yesterday what do you think is the biggest change in perception here does it have to do with the possibility that not only are we going to see the wind down of the bond buying program but perhaps even starting to shrink the balance sheet or what do you think was the biggest pivot there good morning julie that is the case i think the market is now having to cope with the notion that not only is qe ending not only are rates likely to be hiked three times this year but in addition the fed may start to reduce its balance sheet much earlier and the big contrast is between what the minutes said and what people heard at the press conference back in december at the end of the fomc meeting and that's why you got such a big adjustment in markets muhammad is the everything rally in stocks over it's hard to say brian because the everything rally was led by two things one of which is going out the other we don't know one is massive and predictable central bank liquidity injection that is ending but there was another issue that drove this everything rally which is behavioral the fact that people were conditioned to buy on dips the fact that equities dominate in relative space may not dominate in absolute space but they dominate in relative space so the big question brian is the behavioral one will will markets start thinking in absolute terms and not in relative terms if they continue thinking in relative terms equities still dominate everything else out there muhammad you have been cautioning for quite some time that the biggest risk to markets was the fed making a blunder of some kind not exiting a quantitative easing in a smooth fashion if you will so and and you've been saying this like i say for quite a while at least a year we've been talking to you about this so where are we now what is the biggest risk when you look in particular at the fed's exit and what it could look like and what could go wrong so the market sensed it yesterday julie the biggest risk is that the fed after miscalculating the inflation dynamic sticking to its transitory characterization for too long falls way behind the curve and then has to tighten significantly in a small span of time that is the biggest risk the notion is you've been pressing the accelerator now not only do you have to ease off the accelerator you have to hit the brakes and that is consequential for earnings it's consequential for liquidity that's the biggest risk and that's what the market sense yesterday my hope is that the fed will be able to get it right but we have to acknowledge the probability of it doing so given it that it's so late is small that's why i've been advocating for quite a while for them to start early so that we don't get an abrupt change in monetary conditions and mohammed just staying on that if we do get that abrupt change in monetary conditions do you think the fed ultimately tips the us economy into recession early next year that is the risk we haven't had a situation in the past in which the fed has been really late and the fed hasn't ended up dipping the economy into recession that's why we want to avoid that outcome that is absolutely the risk right look right it's easy in terms of analyzing the issue the question is what is the right thing for the fed to do inflation is going to stay for a while but it will come down at the end of the year but it may come down for the wrong reasons we don't want inflation to come down because the fed has to slam on the brakes we want inflation to come down in an orderly fashion there's a small window for this but that window's closing and the fed has to move more quickly early on who so mohammed this obviously is painting a tricky picture both for the economy and for markets here um jay powell and company they seem acutely aware of these risks even if they are late to move on them right so what are the you know and i think that there are folks who like you are starting to raise this specter of um this happening too quickly we're seeing now kamala harris the vice president begin to speak we'll listen in once the president speaks um we are starting to see people like you raise the specter of recession is there a risk that the fed hears those calls and then backs off of its tightening it's certainly a possibility the trouble is inflation in the old days the fed could do u-turns and it did if you remember it did a massive u-turn in january 2019 2018 it did a massive u-turn after the taper tantrum the fed can do u-turns as long as inflation isn't a problem now inflation is an issue and the employment side as they acknowledge themselves they are near maximum employment if labor force participation doesn't go up the fed will find it very difficult to do a u-turn so yes it is possible that the fed does a u-turn but inflation has to behave much better than it has so far for that well then muhammad do you think these these looming hikes from the fed do they even bring down inflation because we're we're getting some early earnings reports out this might this morning from food makers like a canagra they have raised their inflation expectations definitely it's quite surprising but does the fed can they help bring that down they can now but they should have started earlier brian you're absolutely right you know transitory is not a time concept transitory is that it's a behavioral concept that people think it is temporary and will be reversed and therefore don't change your behaviors but as you pointed out we're getting evidence of behavioral change in price setting among companies we're getting evidence of behavioral change in wage bargaining look at what happened to the quit rate and we're also getting evidence of behavioral change on the consumption side so yes the fed has got a bigger problem the way i view it brian is very simple the fed delivered a wonderful year for markets in 2021 at the cost of a much more complicated outlook in 2022 and that complicated outlook is for policy is for the economy and therefore it's a more uncertain outlook for markets um i want to bring up fiscal policy as well muhammad and and bring up again this day that we are marking today january 6th a year after uh those protesters attacked the capital markets didn't move much that day they didn't move much the day after even as it became increasingly clear perhaps how serious that attack was um why do you think markets are not more concerned about this is there i guess um a confidence in american democracy and and stability of government here and if that's the case are you at all concerned or are there things you're going to be watching to to see to make sure that that stays the case so i think markets didn't react in the way you would expect them to react because they felt they were shielded from virtually everything by liquidity i can point to many other instances in which we would have expected market to react but rightly they didn't because liquidity is all that mattered as long as the fed was buying so regularly you could bet on the markets being supported um in the border question truly is a really important one um i do i believe democracy is here to stay i think the us has is the strongest democracy in the world i don't worry about all these things but i do worry about the fact that the political environment is going to complicate movement on something we need which is the soft infrastructure effort which is government efforts to increase labor force participation to increase productivity we had the hard infrastructure we now need the soft infrastructure if we don't get that then productivity and growth potential is going to be less than it should be in this country and mohammed do you think that some of the measures in the that build back better package include some of what you're talking about are you talking about a different bill entirely no i'm talking about that bill um there's lots of things from child care to the labor retraining and retooling that can address labor force participation and productivity and it's really important to move on i mean we now know the supply side is the issue that's the big paradigm change before 2020 it was all about the demand side efficient aggregate demand now it is about the supply side and supply responsiveness and and there's a lot that can be done to improve supply responsiveness and mohammed amidst all this we have a jobs report tomorrow it's somewhat uh getting lost in the sauce what impact do you think the omicron variant is having on the economy right now so i think the omnicron is making the supply side more difficult and the key numbers to look at or those early days um relative to omicron because of what the jobs report captures but it's labor force participation we need to see labor force participation go up that is probably the most important metric tomorrow followed by wages followed by job creation so the hope is that labor force participation continues to edge up as it did last month but i worry that omicron is not going to impact demand as much as it's going to impact supply and that's particularly true for the xero covert regimes like in china for example we will see further supply destruction supply chain disruptions coming out of china because of the way they are approaching covet and so then to put all of this together between omicron between those more structural issues that you were talking about with the so-called soft infrastructure it sounds like you think we cannot have really um full employment whatever full employment even means at this point without those kinds of measures i mean and i guess i should ask you what does full employment mean at this point what would it unlock if we had uh child care measures and some of those other things that you talked about it would unlock a recovery in labor force participation to the levels that we have seen a few years ago it is possible julie this is not something that is beyond policy we just need political agreement um this is still a very robust economy if we avoid a policy mistake big if but if we avoid a policy mistake this economy has all the ingredients to continue growing and grow in a more inclusive manner but we do need help on labor force participation and productivity we do need help on the supply side because you're countering the impact of the pandemic and that's not going to go away anytime soon so we do not need those policies and if we get that they will turbo charge an economy that's able to do really well and able to be more inclusive a very interesting perspective here this morning muhammad it's always great to see you happy 2022.
muhammad al aryan is president of queen's college and cambridge and advisor to allianz thank you again
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