저자: BelleRomong · 한국인
요약 보기
연준이 50bp 빅컷을 단행했고 점도표상 연내 추가 인하(25bp 2회)가 시사됐다. 실업률 전망은 4.4%로 상향, 물가 전망은 하향되어 고용에 초점이 이동했다고 해석한다. 과거 50bp 인하 사례(2001, 2007, 2020)를 들며 급락 위험을 경고하고, 현금 비중(젊은층 20~30%, 은퇴 임박 40% 이상)을 강조한다. 다만 향후 금리 사이클이 강세일지 약세일지는 모른다고 밝힌다. 장기적으로 시간을 활용하면 리스크가 사라진다는 기존 견해를 유지하며, 급락 시 공격적 매수를 권한다. 멤버십 텔레그램 가입을 홍보한다.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is De Belle R. I am starting today by revealing my accounts first. My direct investment account in the US is currently showing a 96% return with a profit of 165 million won, while my domestic account is showing a 133% return with a profit of 7.8 million won. Adding the profits from the second account, exchange rate gains, and Bitcoin turning positive again, I am currently seeing a total profit of approximately 230 million won.
Wow, and everyone, I know some of you were probably working through the night and dozing off yesterday. Yesterday marked the start of an interest rate cut cycle for the first time in nearly five years, and investors' attention was focused on the two possible cut levels: a gradual 25bp reduction or a 50bp "big cut." To start with the result, the government implemented a " big cut"—a 50bp (0.5 percentage point) rate cut—on that day, which many thought was unlikely.
Additionally, looking at the projections, we could see forecasts that rates would fall by about 0.5% more this year. This implies that rates will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points twice more in the future. We were able to examine the outlook of Fed members who believe the most likely scenario is a rate cut.
And everyone, regarding the idea that predictions are meaningless, I honestly shared my personal opinion yesterday that it might be a 25bp rate cut. I realized once again this time that I am just an ordinary person without insight, and indeed, predictions are meaningless. Ultimately, whether it was due to the Democrats' urging for a 75bp cut or because employment conditions were worse than expected, the Fed eventually implemented a 50bp rate cut.
And Trump could not just sit by and watch this happen. He strongly criticized the Fed, stating that the fact they cut rates now means they acted either because the economy is too bad or for political reasons. Why did Trump not want a rate cut and why was he even more enraged by the cut? Because a waning cycle is starting, and lowering rates would give the economy some breathing room.
And this would bring a very important boost to presidential candidate Harris. So, ultimately, the 50bp rate cut was announced at 3 p.m. yesterday. Following the rate cut announcement and the aftermath of the Bank of America's press conference, we can witness truly tremendous volatility. Yesterday in the US It seemed as though the stock market was about to start a significant rally again, but it ultimately closed lower.
It’s no coincidence that Peter Lynch said 30 years ago that economic forecasting is a waste of time. He chided us, asking how we could possibly predict interest rates when even the Fed Chairman couldn't, and this incident has confirmed once again that he was absolutely right. So, to summarize and share the key points you absolutely need to know from yesterday's FMC meeting press conference: as mentioned earlier in the video, there was a forecast containing the Fed members' outlook that there will be another 50bp interest rate cut.
In other words, we can now infer that there is a high probability of a gradual 25bp rate cut over the remaining two FMC meetings. Of course, this comes with the precondition that the economy holds up well. Also, the unemployment rate forecast rose to 4.4%. While it is fortunate that this is the peak at 4.4%, this is still just a forecast, and we cannot predict how employment might suddenly deteriorate.
Therefore, it would be best to take it as a reference only. Furthermore, as employment has recently worsened rapidly, the terminology has shifted from "employment easing" to "employment slowdown." And the unemployment rate They raised their forecasts but conversely lowered their inflation forecasts, demonstrating strong confidence in a slowdown in inflation.
What does this imply? It means they are now focusing on employment rather than inflation. Now, it was revealed that a total of [number] Fed officials agreed to the 50bp rate cut. However, we were able to confirm the Fed members' outlook, noting that only Governor Bowman argued for a 205bp rate cut, while 11 agreed and only one argued for a 25bp.
What the market was waiting for was Powell's response to the press. People were curious about why on earth the rate cut was made, and whether it might already be too late. To summarize the key points of the press conference, he was asked about the reason for the 50bp cut. The essence of the question can be interpreted as implying, "Is n't this just fixing the barn door after the horse has bolted?" Powell firmly stated that he did not listen to the question, explaining that the reason for the cut was to ensure they do not fall behind.
In my video yesterday, I mentioned that if they were to cut interest rates, they would say it is a preemptive response despite the economy being good, or [regarding] the base rate, in order to avoid surprising the market. I mentioned that he might make a statement saying it was necessary to narrow the gap because the neutral rate spread had widened, and he made a statement with a similar meaning.
Also, as expected, he quelled concerns about the current economic recession. He put aside recession worries by stating that he does not think a recession will come soon. As I have said ad nauseam, the most important key point for us right now is that a recession does not occur. As I mentioned similarly yesterday, lowering interest rates abruptly means that the economy is worse than expected.
Therefore, looking at the blue graph, we can see that the stock market has shown a much better trend when interest rates are lowered gradually and slowly, as long as the economy holds up well, rather than through rapid rate cycles. Conversely, if interest rates are lowered drastically, you can see tremendous volatility in the red graph.
Then, some of you might ask this question: " But isn't a 50bp rate cut yesterday a bit too abrupt?" To be honest, I also feel uneasy about that part. I want to believe that this time is different, but there have been three 50bp rate cuts since 2000. Look at the world in January 2001. There were the Doc.com bubble collapse on the 3rd, the Lehman Brothers crisis on September 18, 2007, and the COVID-19 pandemic on March 3, 2020.
In all these instances, a 50bp interest rate cut was implemented just like now. However, during the Doc.com bubble and Lehman Brothers crisis, the stock market rose briefly before subsequently plummeting. In contrast, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we can see the market rebounding after a sharp decline as massive liquidity was injected.
Furthermore, if we check when the 2020 period occurred, we can see that it was somewhere right at the point of a crash. In other words, we cannot deny that a 50bp rate cut or the timing is a very risky time. No matter how long- term an investor you or I are, or how optimistic or positive we are, we must always prepare for the worst-case scenario in advance.
Risk management is especially essential for us compared to other investors because we invest in leveraged ETFs. As I emphasized yesterday, that risk management involves securing a cash proportion and determining whether you can truly utilize the long term. If a crash occurs in interest rates, the economic cycle, or the overall cycle this time, do you have enough time to turn it into an opportunity?
Please make sure to objectively re-evaluate whether you have secured a sufficient cash ratio, and additionally, whether you have the time and mindset to weather the worst-case scenario where recovery might take several years. Since everyone is different in age, monthly income, and circumstances, I cannot give you precise instructions on exactly what to do.
However, if you are a young investor with higher monthly savings or ample time, a cash ratio of around 20% to 30% would suffice. Conversely, if you are an investor with lower monthly savings or time is tight due to impending retirement, then a cash ratio of 40% or more would be necessary. I also plan to increase my cash ratio to around 20% this time.
Naturally, when I increase my cash ratio, I will explain the exact amount and timing in detail, step by step, in real-time via the membership Telegram. For those who wish to benefit from and receive help during this most critical period in five years, I will post the membership sign-up link in the pinned comment; if you sign up and join the Telegram group, you will seize the opportunity to protect your money and grow your assets amidst the interest rate cycle that has arrived for the first time in five years.
Now, that said, I... I am not predicting a crash; this time it might be different. First, while the stock market usually rises along with interest rate hikes, this time, due to the unprecedented speed of the rate hike, the stock market fell into a bear market. Additionally, there is data showing that when rates were cut from all-time highs, the market rose with 100% probability one year later—in fact, it rose in all 20 instances.
This implies that cutting rates from an all-time high means a recession did not occur for the next year—in other words, the economy held up well. However, I honestly do not know whether this interest rate cycle will be a bull or a bear this time. Furthermore, I do not know if a recession will come or not.
If I knew that, those who went all-in on long positions would have lost their short positions. Nevertheless, I know the fundamental core of becoming wealthy. Although I cannot predict the future, I am convinced that we can become rich. It is that if we utilize time, all risks disappear. During the first three months after interest rates rise, they may rise or crash; it is a 50/50 battle.
However, the key is that they tend to start recovering gradually starting after six months. This means we can verify that. In other words, this is the first target timeframe I have been advocating. If we invest with 2030 in mind, and if a market crash occurs in the absolute worst-case scenario during this interest rate cycle or cycle, we will be able to regard it not as a crisis, but as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to invest.
Please do not forget that by utilizing the long term, if you see the stock market cut in half right now, you must truly grit your teeth, consider it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and summon the courage to consolidate your investments boldly. This is because back then, the Nasdaq was only 1 point; now it is 19,000 points.
If you had invested then, you are currently making a 19-fold profit. Therefore, please prepare both your cash reserves and your time mindset well in advance. I will demonstrate that my assets will grow once again, whether it is a bull market or a bear market during this interest rate cycle or cycle.
This is because the stocks we invest in are the ones with the most certain upward trend in the world. This means that we just need to sit back and accumulate whenever a puddle is dug. In the past, even amidst more painful bad news than now... There were many challenges, but ultimately, the US stock market has overcome them all and is trending upward.
The US market has always moved upward in the same pattern cycle, repeating ups and downs, but in the end, it was only retail investors who fell through. Capitalists, the wealthy, and the rich never sell good assets. Let's adopt a capitalist mindset and just hold on to the end together. I will show you again how I survive this interest rate cycle or the next one. .
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