저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/DavidSacks · 외국인
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결론: 금리 인상의 시차 효과로 부동산(특히 주거용·상업용 다가구)에서 디레버리징 위기가 올 수 있고, 이것이 경기침체와 시장 리스크로 이어질 수 있다. 시장 컨센서스: 인플레이션은 진정 국면이고 연준은 내년 금리 인하 가능하다는 시각이 우세하며, 이에 따라 증시가 상승해 있다. 발언자들은 이 컨센서스에 두 가지 큰 리스크가 있다고 봄. 리스크 1 - 인플레이션 재반등: 좋은 인플레이션 데이터가 아직 충분히 축적되지 않았고, 재반등 시 내년 금리 인하가 없어져 밸류에이션 하락 위험. 리스크 2 - 금리 인상 시차: 실물경제는 아직 타격이 없어 보이나 금리 인상 효과는 보통 긴 시차를 두고 나타나므로 향후 수개월 내 경기 둔화·침체 가능. 현재 시장은 연착륙 또는 무착륙을 가격에 반영 중. 주거용 부동산: 모기지 금리가 20년 이상 최고 수준(약 7%대, 플로리다 등은 8%)으로, 기존 3%대 대출 보유자는 매도·이동을 기피해 거래량이 급감. 거래가 적어 가격 하락이 아직 드러나지 않았을 뿐 밸류에이션은 하락했을 것이며, 대부분 가구의 주된 자산인 만큼 큰 조정 위험. 상업용 부동산: 사무실 공실 문제에 이어 다가구(멀티패밀리)에서도 디스트레스 발생. 수요 문제가 아니라 자본구조(캐피털 스택) 문제로, 금리 상승과 밸류에이션 축소로 LTV가 무너져 재융자가 어려워짐. 메자닌 펀드는 15%대 금리를 요구. 향후 1~2년 내 재융자가 필요한 개발업자 대부분이 디스트레스 위험. 발언자는 본인 빌딩의 재융자 사례(900만 달러 대출 중 240만 달러만 롤오버 제안, 나머지는 추가 담보 요구)를 제시. 월스트리트 반응: 코헨앤스티어스, 골드만삭스 등이 디스트레스 자산 매입 펀드를 수십억 달러 규모로 조성 중. 샌프란시스코 타워는 2014년 1억 700만 달러에서 4,100만 달러에 매각. 연준 전망: 부동산 디스트레스가 정치적 압력으로 작용해 연준이 예상보다 1~2분기 빨리(2024년 1분기 가능) 금리를 인하하게 만들 수 있다고 봄. 다만 단기금리 인하가 장기금리(10년물, 현재 약 4.5%) 하락을 보장하지 않으며 재정적자로 장기금리는 높게 유지될 수 있음(Larry Summers 경고 인용). 모건스탠리는 상업용 부동산 위기가 글로벌 금융위기만큼 심각할 수 있다고 전망. 투자 함의: 부동산 관련 자산 및 금융 리스크 경계, 디스트레스 자산 기회 포착 가능성 언급. 시장 전체 리스크 관리 필요.
다듬은 글
so what is the evidence that there might be a lag well a couple of things and it really has to do with real estate which I think is the most impacted asset class by rate hikes you saw that the mortgage rate is the highest it's been in over 20 years one major real estate guy told me that the the big guys like you know Blackstone he the words he used was they are throwing their keys at the bank meaning they are so underwater they're not even going to bother trying to figure out a workout they're just going to give the key they're just going to say to the bank you own this asset now and they're going to move on to the next fund over the past year experts have persistently warned of an impending crisis in the youth South real estate sector the initial cause for concern was the Federal reserve's commitment to an aggressive series of interest rate hikes in 2022 which raised eyebrows among prominent investors and analysts historically Rising interest rates have significantly impacted the real estate industry the central bank has since executed a record-breaking 11 rate hikes at an unprecedented Pace driving the federal funds rate from nearly zero percent in early 2020 to a range of 5.25 to 5.50 by July 2023.
moreover the FED has hinted at further rate increases with no immediate prospects of rate Cuts this unsettling situation has prompted well-known investors like David Sachs to predict a looming storm in the real estate industry potentially causing significant economic problems during a recent all-in podcast cast episode Saxon venture capitalist chamath palahapidia discussed warning signs within the U.S economy contrary to the official Narrative of strength and resilience sax pointed out that market expectations of rate Cuts as early as q1 2024 are based on the belief that the inflation battle is won though mounting evidence suggests inflation May rebound and the economy May grapple with the consequences of the rapid rate hikes this skepticism is shared by renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Michael burry both of whom have taken positions that bet against the Market's current trajectory reinforcing the notion that a substantial storm is on the horizon I think we should follow up on where the economy is right now and and what the macro situation is connected and why Michael Berry might want to short the market yes so in terms of where things stand today I think the consensus view of the street is that inflation is largely in the rearview mirror it was down to three percent last month and the bet now I think is that it will continue to remain low it will be in this two and a half to three percent change the end of the year and therefore the FED will be able to cut rates next year and the market has rallied quite a bit in anticipation of that I think that is the consensus view I think there are at least two really big risk factors to that one is that inflation could still rebound we haven't really gotten that many months of good inflation data and if inflation ticks back up if there's another wave of it in the next several months and there will not be rate Cuts next year and that means if its rates are higher than anticipated valuations come down so that would be a big risk factor to the market the other big risk factor is I think in the real economy it's true that the economy does not seem to be hurt so far by these huge interest rate hikes that we've had however there is typically a big lag in the impact on the real economy of rate hikes and I think you could still see these rate hikes take effect over the next several months and you could see a real dip in the economy potentially a recession and that would be a big risk factor to the markets because right now the markets are pricing in a soft Landing or no Landing we're just going to do a flyby right right so what is the evidence that there might be a lag well a couple of things and it really has to do with real estate which I think is the most impacted asset class by rate hikes you saw that the mortgage rate is the highest it's been in over 20 years yeah 7.09 and the rates I'm seeing in Florida and other places mortgages are like eight percent well if it's going to cost you eight percent to buy a new house and it used to be three percent a couple years ago you're not gonna be able to afford to buy that same level of house and you can't afford to sell your current house and buy a new one because your current house is financed to three percent you're not going to give up which mortgage to trade into an eight percent mortgage so we're already seeing a huge reduction action in the number of transactions in residential real estate and so that means that we're not seeing a lot of fresh marks in terms of where prices are but that doesn't mean the valuations haven't gone lower I think that as this washes through the system you could see a big correction in the values of residential real estate which is most people's main asset so I think there's a big risk factor there the other big risk factor is on the commercial real estate side there was a interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about distress funds are forming in anticipation of a lot of commercial real estate projects basically going under so the vultures on Wall Street are going to be looking to scoop up these projects I think the really interesting thing about commercial real estate right now is multi-family until now the conversation has all been about office space and we know that office space is impaired because of the high vacancy rates that this the sector just hasn't come back the same way from home since covid right exactly but now we're starting to see real distress in the multi-family sector now why has this happened because multi-family is full There's No Vacancy problem the problem is not on the demand side the problem is in the capital stack so let me describe the the problem of what's happened here is let's say that you are a real estate developer who bought multi-family you bought it at a certain price level let's say you finance it two-thirds with debt you now need to go out and refinance that project because let's say you did a value ad let's say you you basically did some improvements to it that means you didn't put long-term debt on it you can't put long-term debt on a project that's not stabilized yet if you want to do value-add work to it you get what's called a construction loan for two or three years so there's a lot of real estate developers who need to go out right now and finance these projects that they bought and they bought these projects to the top of the market so let's say you're going out now to refinance first of all the rates are much higher you're looking at paying eight or nine percent instead of the three to four percent that you had penciled in your model a couple years ago moreover there's another problem which is potentially even worse which is loan to value you had basically gotten two-thirds loaned to value a couple years ago but values were much higher now values are lower because again multiples have shrunk as interest rates have gone up and so the amount that you can Finance is much lower so you either have to top that off by coming out of pocket with your own Equity or you have to go to one of these mezzanine funds so now there's Insurance funds they are total sharks and they're going to charge you not eight or nine percent but like 15 so your Capital stack has basically is completely upside down you thought that you could borrow all this money really cheaply but now it is super expensive and this project no longer pencils meaning you're underwater from a you've got negative leverage on the project and so I think you're going to see again not just impaired office space now impaired multi-family and there is not I think a sector of real estate developer who is not in distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two in a recent Twitter post John math conducted a comprehensive analysis of the increasingly dire situation in the real estate industry over the next year or two his post emphasized that the U.S housing market is currently in an unsustainable predicament with interest rates hitting levels not witnessed in over two decades this has two significant implications firstly existing homeowners face the Dilemma of either staying put and enjoying historically low mortgage rates or selling their homes and acquiring new ones burdened with much higher mortgage payments secondly the available inventory of homes for sale is dwindling and the overall cost of homeownership is placing It Out Of Reach for many Americans jeopardizing their most substantial asset and primary source of wealth kamatha's post goes on to speculate that this situation could prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate rate Cuts sooner than originally anticipated He suggests that the fed's motivation to implement these Cuts could be Advanced by one to two quarters possibly occurring in q1 2024 if the economy experiences a faster than expected Slowdown the discussion between sax and chamath delves deeper into this analysis exploring its potential implications for the economy in the months ahead David David what do you go ahead what do you do if you're long these assets do you just default on them and just give them back to the bank one major real estate guy told me that the the big guys like you know Blackstone he the words he used was they are throwing their keys at the bank meaning they are so underwater they're not even going to bother trying to figure out a workout they're just going to give the key they're just going to say to the bank you own this asset now and they're going to move on to the next fund well no my only thought around housing was that very much just supporting what Saks just said like we're in a incredibly untenable situation mostly because as rates go up mortgage applications go down and so what you're seeing is just like the number of people trying to transact is very small and so the inventory is very small and so Sac said well so I don't really have much to add except that when you think about where this land squarely in terms of the wealth creation that it's supposed to represent for most Americans it's a very physical situation this is I actually think the point like people talk about the political pressure from the White House to the Fed and I think that this actually is probably a very powerful lens with which to look at it and the reason is because this touches all voters in every state across all political lines and I think when people talk about is the economy doing well or is the economy not doing well and as a result where are your political leanings I think something like this actually represents a much larger percentage of how people represent whether they feel they're doing well than any other thing even earnings quite honestly because I think that a home is just such a fundamentally visceral psychological component of safety my only point in that was just more that this could actually if if the FED is susceptible to political pressure I think this is the kind of thing that pressures them to move forward the point at which they start cutting and to start to let go the release valve just because there's just too much pressure in the system the problem that we have is that rates are at a near-term high the tenure is ratcheting up faster than we ever expected it's rallied in terms of rates meaningfully more than anybody thought since the beginning of the year and so now we're in this odd position where will the FED cut and why will they cut and if they cut will they cut sooner than they would have if they hold on is it that they just want the country to enter a recession in which case they want to see quote unquote regime change it's a very interesting set of Financial and political politics that that I don't think we've seen in recent years yeah well there's a lot of real estate developers who are literally Hanging On by their fingernails and they're hoping and praying for a rate cut the problem they're going to have is that even if inflation doesn't rebound Even If the Fed does cut rates next year the rate that the FED Cuts is the short rate is basically the FED funds rate that's at five and a half percent right now even if they cut that to call it three to four percent next year there's no guarantee that the 10-year rate which is what real estate developers get financed on will move down right the 10-year rate is what is it now at like uh four point four and a half percent something like that and that rate may not come down a lot of economists are warning about this Larry Summers warned about this because the federal government has such huge financing needs and so just because short rates come down it's no guarantee that the long wait is going to come down and so there may not be this relief that real estate developers are looking for next year and again there's this Wall of Death that has to be refinanced I'll give you an example from my own portfolio I have a building just to simplify the evaluation of a couple of buildings but okay that's worth about 15 million dollars it's an office building okay there's a 9 million dollar loan on it that is coming up to be refinance at the end of the year so I'm talking to the lender about rolling it over and what they agreed to do here here are the terms they agreed to give me 2.4 million out of the nine secured by the building that's it they they wouldn't roll over the nine that'd only give me 2.4 for the other 6.6 they wanted me to post additional collateral in the form of public Securities so they basically wanted me to fully collateralize the loan recent reports from the Wall Street Journal indicate that prominent Wall Street firms are gearing up to take advantage of the distressed state of commercial real estate companies such as Cohen and steers and Goldman Sachs are actively raising billions of dollars in funds to Target distressed assets intending to acquire them at a fraction of their previous prices Kevin Gannon the CEO of Robert estranger and Co an investment banking firm specializing in real estate fundraising expressed surprise that the sudden surge in interest stating the last few weeks I've been saying holy mackerel they're coming out of the woodwork the article in the Wall Street Journal also notes a shift in the commercial real estate landscape with a growing number of office owners beginning to sell at lower prices an example cited is the downtown San Francisco Tower which was purchased for 107 million dollars in 2014 and recent only sold for 41 million dollars to Presidio Bay Rich Hill head of real estate strategy at Cohen and steers which aims to raise over two dollars 5 billion in a new non-traded Real Estate Investment Trust commented that selective investment opportunities are emerging for those positioned to take advantage of Market weaknesses earlier this year Morgan Stanley analysts issued a report predicting that the commercial real estate crisis could be as severe as the global financial crisis the article concludes by seeking opinions on the potential magnitude of the unfolding real estate crisis its impact on the economy and markets and whether it will compel the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier than originally anticipated please share your thoughts
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