저자: Kevin · 외국인
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이란 전쟁 장기화 우려로 시장 하락. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄가 지속되면 유가가 급등할 수 있으며, JP모건은 지상군 투입 가능성과 다년 분쟁 시나리오를 언급. 단기 종전 시 매수 기회, 장기화 시 유가 110~140달러 및 금리 인하 불가 위험. 10년물 금리는 약 4.25%로 6개월 내 고점권. 다음 주 연준 회의를 예정.
다듬은 글
Well, markets are selling down today, because now Donald Trump suggests that Iran is more important than oil prices. And there is a suggestion that actually, to be able to open the Strait of Hormuz, we might need ground troops to secure the coastline of the Strait of Hormuz inside of Iran. Oil prices, per Donald Trump, make us a lot of money, though.
And therefore, with high oil prices, Donald Trump is happy that we're making lots of money. And quote, "Of far greater importance, interest and importance to me as president, is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East, indeed, the world." So, that's Donald Trump's take, which is very different from Donald Trump's take on Monday, which is "We're almost done.
There's really nothing left to target. And we'll be done really soon. In fact, we could be done at any time. We we could be done right now, if we wanted to be done." Apparently, that isn't true, because just in the last 24 hours, we have had seven ships in the Strait of Hormuz attacked. Seven of them.
Uh in addition to that, we have now had threats against coastline California, with the FBI reporting that California police departments have been made aware of the potential for drone attacks from unidentified ships off the coast of California. Now, this could actually create an interesting stock opportunity for the stock uh company Axon, AXON, given that they bought a company called Dedrone, which sells technology to police departments to take down bad drones.
Many of these police departments, I suspect, don't actually have Dedrone technology yet, mostly because they haven't had any threats. And so, in response, of course, Gavin Newsom has opened an emergency operations center, though I'm not entirely clear what that does. And given that I don't think we have a golden dome yet, or Patriot missile batteries aligning the or or lined along the coast of California.
California might be under an actual threat, which isn't great. Now, then again, Iran is known for saber-rattling. Some people say they're basically threatless, but we did just get seven ships attacked in the last 24 hours, and commentary from the Ayatollah this morning, as we were writing the Alpha report, we included in our Alpha report this morning, which you can get at mekevin.com every single day before the market opens, in addition to our fundamental analysis, the supreme leader had a message for us, and it was not good.
This was the first official message of the new supreme leader open to expanding the war to new fronts, and suggests that it is critical they maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and should be continued as a tool to pressure uh, the enemies, essentially. So, the Americans, and uh, the uh, Israelis, and frankly, the globe, because that's the goal here is to damage the entire global economy to get the pressure to stop against Iran.
Iran says, well, via the new supreme leader, again, their first official message, that Iran needs to be compensated for this entire war and all of the strikes against them, or they will continue to destroy enemy assets, including our bases, and uh, potentially more strikes against oil infrastructure, which isn't great because companies like ANZ and Mizuho are warning that there could be shut-ins that markets really aren't pricing in right now.
Shut-ins are basically when you take all the oil out of the lines in the infrastructure of of these facilities, and sometimes it can take weeks to months to actually reopen these facilities. In fact, if you take a look at uh, this piece here from ANZ, ANZ argues that we are moving from volatility to attrition.
They say that their previous analysis was focused on transient risk. And they say that because uh, risk. And they say that because of what they see in the market with front-end prices not steeper or further down the curve for oil futures prices, because they see most of the volatility basically at the front of the curve.
Let me write draw this out for us. They think the market is actually heavily underestimating the potential damage that we could be facing because of a prolonged conflict in oil prices. So, the way to understand this is kind of in my opinion like a heartbeat to a flatline. So, the war, you know, these are sort of normal fluctuations in oil, right?
And then you get this like crazy volatility of an oil shock. And this would be maybe pricing, you know, 30 days out, right? So, call this like now. Right here could be now. And then you have the 30-day out period. And then you have the previous more calm environment. Well, futures pricing is basically pricing in this relaxation right now into the longer term, which would be out say 3 months.
The problem with this estimate is that what if the war doesn't last for a short period of time? And this is where we get a report here that markets are underestimating the risk that these supply losses can really compound over time. And the problem with compounding supply losses over time is really that once you get down the road of these supply problems getting worse, you actually start, as they say, losing effectiveness of inventory releases.
So, they actually provide four scenario or three scenarios here. They say if we have a short-term shock, inventories can cushion near-term losses, which which is a good thing, right? This means that the I International Energy Agency's release coordinated release of oil, the United States release of 172 million barrels.
All of this together is a tool to help us cushion some of that near-term volatility. Unfortunately, as soon as we get into late March, we start getting into what's called the attrition phase. And this is where inventory releases slow but cannot offset losses. And then if we get into Q2, starting, you know, this war goes into April, then inventories likely draw rapidly.
In other words, we lose our inventories rapidly cuz we use them. Really, the what we just released from strategic reserves, by the way, buys us about 20 days, which isn't much. In fact, it reminds me a lot of the Titanic movie where, you know, the guy walks into the office, rolls out the plans to the ship, and then a guy next to him goes, "What about the ballast?" Basically, like closing off the doors and compartmentalizing the the sinking ship.
And and the guy goes, and I don't remember exactly what the word is, so I'm going to use ballast, but I don't think that's the right word. He's like, "Ballast? Ballast by you minutes. They buy you time, but minutes only. The ship will sink." Something like that. I haven't watched in a while, but but that's where the other people go, "The ship cannot sink.
Surely, she can sink. She is made of iron. I assure you she can sink." It's been a while since I've watched it, but the point is the analogy we're trying to make here is these inventory releases, they're kind of like that on the Titanic. They buy you time. What you really have to do is plug the hole, which in this case the hole is war.
And unfortunately, war keeps going until really, frankly, the supreme leader who's calling himself the revolutionary. In fact, he just made a Twitter account, by the way. I haven't followed it, but I'm aware of it. He just made an X account, and he calls himself the leader of revolution. It's r a a h b a r e n g h e l a b underscore.
I have no idea how to say that. I'm not even going to try to pronounce it. Uh but apparently that translates to leader of revolution. Uh which isn't great uh because again now uh you have this idea that the supreme leader really is trying to combine or unify the country towards him against everyone else.
Which what was hoped by Donald Trump was that if we strike Iran, some other revolutionary like the previous Shah's son would get support and all of a sudden there'd be a resistance and an overthrow of the government from within. But as is usual, regime change conducted by the United States or at least sought by the United States usually doesn't go well.
And so it's no surprise that now the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, is responding to the supreme leader saying quote, "We've heard your message. We will deliver the most severe blows to the aggressor enemy by maintaining the strategy of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed." Right, this isn't great.
And this is where we now get a Mizuho sort of scenario of estimates here. Uh the scenario of estimates in terms of where we could go here, they're not looking that great. And this, you know, reiterates some of the unfortunate near-term bearishness that we're seeing in markets, which of course when we lose 200, uh we did a big deep dive on UiPath this morning.
That's why this one's up. You remember we do a very deep dive fundamental analysis on earnings. We spent like 45 minutes on this one this morning. You can see the summary in your stock app if you're part of the Meet Kevin uh course. But anyway, uh look at this. You mean yesterday we briefly tried getting above 607 briefly in the morning, sold it off, held the line all day, uh but today we couldn't hold the line at all.
So we're heading back now through 600 back to 595 really because unfortunately markets are having to wake up to pricing in a longer-term war. Donald Trump saying, "Hey, we care more about killing, basically destroying the Iranian regime, than oil is not great." And so, as a result, we're seeing oil prices now on Brent over 101.
This is something we had in the Alpha report this morning, is that if you're trading today, you need to watch Brent. Less so WTI, which is the Western blend, the left one, you have to watch Brent. And even a $2 move, like what we saw yesterday, we were over 607, oil prices moved up about $2 to $3, and the market tanked on that.
Today so far, obviously we moved up about 10 bucks in the after hours, but since market open, we've moved up about $2 again. And so, sure enough, what is the market doing? Market's selling down. Remember, you can be part of that at mekevin.com. We got a coupon code expiring next Wednesday. Okay, let's now focus on those scenarios, because those scenarios are very interesting.
So, if we go to these Mizuho scenarios, we can see that regime survival, in other words, a taco by Donald Trump, has about a 40% chance of happening right now. This is still by most, you know, companies and analysts, the base case scenario that uh you know, Donald Trump is going to taco, he's going to pull out of this, and he's basically going to leave it uh to the Israelis to potentially continue striking, which could lead to more oil price issues, but uh at least in the short term, the United States would be uninvolved.
That has about a 40% chance of occurring right now. Maybe we have a 20% chance of a Venezuela-style replacement of the head of Iran, but we did just get a replacement with the son of the previous Ayatollah, and he's just as aggressive, if not more aggressive. The Shah coming back only has about a 10% chance, the Shah dynasty, so the son.
Uh so, as a result, prolonged unrest actually has the second highest opportunity here at a 30% shot, with oil moving to 110 to 140 dollars per barrel. This is if the war goes on into April and longer. Remember, George W. Bush declared victory in 2003, and we ended up at war for another 6 years. So, declaring victory and saying we're done doesn't always mean that we are done.
It also doesn't help that the United States and its Tomahawk cruise missiles are now implicated in the strike against the school, which the school that killed over 170 children, which is a terrible travesty. School-aged girls girls was terrible. Accidentally looked like they used old targeting data where the school was previously thought to still be part of the IRGC headquarters and it turned into a school later, but they never updated that information.
So, poor intelligence and really accurate Tomahawks led to the killing of over 170 girls in Iran, which is devastating because obviously they don't deserve that. Now, the leader, the supreme leader, is literally weaponizing that strike to unify opposition to the United States and the Israelis in Iran.
We literally just had a council member in Israel get stabbed by some guy yelling Allahu Akbar and stabbed him like nine or 10 times. The guy's in critical condition. We expect, unfortunately, more of this sort of counter-attacking from individual radicals throughout the world and that's scary. Kind of makes you want to get a concealed carry permit and start walking around with a gun, which isn't the kind of world we should be living in.
And unfortunately, the world is getting more aggressive, not less aggressive. Chris Wright from the Energy Department uh tells us that we are not doing any escorts so far after these seven ships have been attacked. We're denying requests, but quote-unquote maybe we could pull it off by the end of the month.
Now, unfortunately, by the end of the month, that's when JP Morgan actually thinks we might need a military resolution. Now, this isn't great either. Take a look at this. If if we end up with a short-term solution, which is still the base case scenario, they call it the more likely solution where this war ends in the short-term.
Great. That would be fantastic. Maybe that would be the more likely outcome, a diplomatic negotiated solution. We've already seen Iran say we just want compensation. Uh you know, we've seen uh Donald Trump say we could end the war at any time. Who knows? Maybe there's a diplomatic hope here. Hopefully, in which case you would want to buy the dip in the stock market because we'll probably go rally to new highs after we can recover from this.
And then of course, private credit, which is a totally separate issue, which we'll talk about in a different video. Unfortunately, JP Morgan does provide a long-term red flag. Let's talk about that. I had to take a little sip here. Throat's getting a little dry. [clears throat] All right. If a short-term victory proves unattainable, the US would likely be forced into a ground war to open the Strait of Hormuz, potentially evolving into a multi-year conflict.
Russia-Ukraine, by the way, dragged on for years and it's still going on. And Iran is 2.7 times as large as Ukraine and has predominantly mountainous terrain, particularly near US entry points via Iraq and Turkey, which unfortunately means American casualties would be more likely or more American casualties since we've already had.
Now, uh The Wall Street Journal is also reiterating this JP Morgan argument that ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz may be necessary and more than just special forces because these are not surgical uh strikes that you can handle with ground troops. Uh you you basically need an occupation of the coastline to secure that uh strait, which is [clears throat] not good.
Which is very bad because this unfortunately uh leads to a concern that this turns into a forever war and likely leads to more attacks on those front lines against Americans. Now, if we could actually open the strait in the short term, that could actually help oil if we are actually able to successfully open it.
But, the worst-case scenario here is we deploy troops and we still can't get it open because there's too much land to actually cover. So, obviously, we have problems here and this isn't great. And this is definitely where we're looking at this broader situation and saying, "Crap, if this keeps going on, we do have an inflationary impetus, rate cuts are going to be off the table.
This is very bad for interest rates and it's not great for oil prices." If we take a look at the 10-year Treasury, we're at at almost four and a quarter right now, which is one of the highest levels that we've seen in the last about 6 months. Not great. And so, remember next Wednesday, we will have a Federal Reserve meeting and I will be covering that live, obviously.
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