저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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Dimon는 연착륙(soft landing) 가능성을 약 35%로 낮게 보고 있다고 말했습니다. 그 이유로 재무장(remilitarization), 재정 적자, 녹색 전환, 인구 구조 변화, 에너지 가격 상승 가능성 등 인플레이션을 자극하는 요인들을 꼽았습니다. 그는 연준(Fed)이 너무 이르게 금리를 인하하는 것의 함의에 반대하며, 고금리가 장기간 유지되면서 미국의 국채 이자 상환 비용이 늘어나고 있다고 지적했습니다. 이에 따라 재정 적자를 줄여야 한다고 주장했습니다. 시장과 관련해서는, 시장이 하락할 수 있기 때문에 IPO(기업공개) 활동이 한동안 저조하게 유지될 수 있다고 내다봤습니다. 다만 시장은 여전히 열려 있으며, 밸류에이션은 높고 신용 스프레드는 낮은 상태라고 덧붙였습니다.
다듬은 글
you are more pessimistic about aoft Landing do you still think that the truth is the truth is the truth and the truth today is pretty ugly that there as many of you may already know is Jamie Diamond he is the CEO of America's largest bank JP Morgan has been since 2006 and has an estimated a net worth of $2.4 billion and as well as lots of cash there is one thing that Jamie definitely gets from his position as the head of America's largest bank and that is economic insight and luckily for us Jamie regularly sits down for interviews to share his thoughts and yes he's recently done exactly that sitting down with Bloomberg for a 20-minute interview a week or so ago now if you don't know Jaime's take on the economy it is certainly one of caution no he's not running around like headless chook but he also doesn't shy away from telling Americans exactly how their country stands in fact it was only back in August where Diamond gave his last economic update cautioning Americans that a recession could be on the horizon and giving only a 35 to 40% prob ability that the US manages a whoop buzzword alert soft landing and for those that don't know what a soft Landing is it's simply where a central bank like the Federal Reserve in America typically through monetary policy like raising interest rates successfully slows down an overheated economy to prevent High inflation without triggering a recession So Jamie gave that scenario a 35 to 40% probability back in August but what does he think now you mentioned earlier that you are more pessimistic about a soft Landing I think you gave it a 35% probability back in April do you still think that or do you think that the probability has gone up with some of the good data that we've been getting I'm not talking about forecasting 2025 and I just think there's a lot of moving Parts a lot of things in the future which inflationary these you know the most important thing taking place is these wars overseas geopolitics you know the terrible Humane suffering bunch of these countries acting in cahoots against Western interests against Israel against Ukraine against the United States and that's really serious I look at a long amount of serious things soft Lings are hard I hope it happens I don't know I just wouldn't count my eggs in that one and I think this is a very rational response to the question I like that Jamie starts by saying that he's actually not trying to make a prediction with his words he's just trying to draw attention to some of the factors that might not be given enough consideration when discussing the US economy and from the clips I'm going to show you throughout the rest of the video you'll see that Jim's overarching point is that there are still a lot of inflationary forces in the world that may yet still have an effect on the broader US economy yes the headline inflation rate that we see reported in the news seems to be under control for now it's settled to 2.4% from a high of 99.1% in 2022 but Jamie is thinking much more broadly than this listen to the Nuance in his answer here do you think that it was a mistake for the FED to cut byy 50 basis points no actually I mean you guys separate the Here and Now inflation has definitely been coming down they don't want to go into recession unemployment has been going going up they were late raising rates but they raised very high rapidly to 5% I think is the right thing and they're right to take their foot up the guess in that one I don't think it matters that much 50 25 honestly but I think that was okay if inflation comes back I'm looking at Future things the REM militar the world's inflationary the fiscal deficits of the world particularly United States are inflationary the green economy is inflationary demographics are inflationary it's very possible Energy prices down the road until about 2 3 years will be inflationary those will hit later they should react at that time to those things but they I don't think you can anticipate that we don't know that that's going to happen so the points he brought up there the remilitarization of the world is inflationary this is both talking about the increases in spending and potential money printing that may be required to shore up the US military in 2023 we saw total global Military expenditure reaching $2.4 trillion a 6.8% increase in real terms from 2022 which is the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009 and of that US military spending Rose 2.3% to reach $916 billion for 2023 War also has disruptive effects on Supply chains and that is inflationary Jamie also noted the ongoing fiscal deficit is inflationary the US spends more than it earns and we see quite frequently that Gap is plugged by borrowing or printing money that's inflationary the green economy is inflationary because a lot of government spending is required now for the green energy infrastructure of the future the US demographics are inflationary with more and more spending needed on health care for those getting older and then slow population growth also has the longer term effect of Labor shortages which are also inflationary Jamie was saying in his lights there's a real possibility of energy prices rising over the next few years so he's not so much making the argument that inflation isn't under control and that the FED is making a big mistake and the US economy is going down the drain next Thursday afternoon he's just zooming out taking that 10,000 ft View and just cautioning everyone that there are still many challenges on the horizon that are both yet to be resolved and inflationary what you're telling clients what they're doing how they're ranging in preparation for potential escalations in a whole bunch of different hotpots you know unfortunately you I go to a lot of things and people like it tell us the positive news what's the good spin out there I was getting to I don't I don't I don't do anything like that you know the truth is the truth is the truth and the truth today is pretty ugly we have this war now you know almost a million casualties in Ukraine the ukrainians say that 20,000 children have been kidnapped and sent to Russia it's quite clear that Russia Iran and North Korea acting in cahoots that China isn't kind of part of that but they're aiding to betting Russia you know China and Russia have spoken about dismantling the world order set up by America and the Allies after World War II which have been quite successful in keeping peace you know they want to do it differently and that's their right I don't think it's a good idea for the Western World and of course the terrorist acts in Israel Israel is being attacked you know basically on three or four sides this is tough stuff American War warships are being attacked every day in the Red Sea the head of the FBI just said the terrorist threats internally and externally to the United States have never been higher there was a lesson on when Ukraine was invaded the war world isn't a safe place we've got to get rid of the illusion of safe and somehow pieces at hand so we need a very strong military which means we have to spend more money at least every analysis I receiv seen for that we need a very strong economy we have to subordinate some of the stuff we do to National Security we have to engage much better allies in trade Finance development finance and things like that if you want to hold the world together and so yeah I think this is the most important thing for dwarfs whether we have a soft Landing or modest Landing the next 12 months that to me as a business person almost all of us in business have dealt with that many times that is not a big deal so Jamie laying things out pretty thoroughly there and this general idea of inflationary forces on the horizon has a very particular implication for the US government inflationary forces naturally keep interest rates higher and while Jerome pal and the Federal Reserve are currently lowering interest rates it's worth remembering that Jerome pal himself has said that they're probably not going to lower rates by all that much and that the low rate environment of the last 20 years or so that many people think we're going back to is simply not achievable but this higher for longer situation actually inflicts a lot of pain on the US government and I'll explain why the US spends more than earth right and unfortunately that is just not going to change anytime soon and that's by the treasury Department's owned admission but when the government doesn't bring in enough money to cover their expenses they need to sell treasury bonds or IUS to investors to cover the difference now when interest rates are low the government can go into debt and not feel too much pain because they only have to pay a small amount of interest but when interest rates start to rise then it gets more and more painful the government has to pay more interest to investors to take on that debt and that's what's happening at the moment however the biggest problem is that because the government doesn't make money when their debts come je they actually don't have the money to pay them back so in reality what happens is they take on a new loan to pay off the old loan but now of course they're having to take on that new loan at 4% interest when a few years ago that debt they took on only cost them well less than 1% per year to service and this refinancing effect snowballs America's debt servicing cost during periods of higher interest rates so much so interest rate payments are now the third highest category when it comes to Total us spending deficit by their nature are inflationary and you know one point we have to deal with this I think what you should worry about is the deficit today is 7% of GDP when vulker was around and we had very high inflation was 3 and a half% the debt to GDP is 35% back then 1982 it's 100% Today the deficit say the biggest peacetime deficit we ever ran I would beg the government to set up a powerful Simpson balls type of committee authorized by the Congress up or down vote it's the probably the only way to do do it the other way to do is wait until there's some kind of disaster in the market and then then you're kind of forced to do it the wrong time and I don't know when that might be I I we'll Happ next year probably not but you know we can America afford 120% de of GDP probably but should we wait for that hockey stick to start I don't think so I think it's just a bad way to run risk So Jamie almost looking a little Ray Dario esque In that clip as Ray would say you can argue around the topic as much as you like but at the core the US needs to work towards spending less than it earns and it needs to think about without lowering that debt pile the American public needs and deserves very confident Effective Government and if you go around they don't believe that's what they have and you know so people have all these things the government should do but a lot of the things the government does doesn't do particularly well it does some things particularly well it does a lot of things only the government can do but we we have to be again coldblooded clear-headed pragmatic about what works doesn't work and over time there've been less and less people in government who were in the real world so fair to say Jamie isn't thrilled with the current management of the US economy interestingly he was also asked later in the interview whether he'd be interested in eventually running for office but he kind of just laughed that one off and said no but with that said there was just one more topic I wanted to cover off in this video and that was Jamie Diamond's thoughts on the stock market at the current time as I'm sure that's what a lot of you guys are also interested in and interestingly this stock market discussion was actually taking place through the lens of IPOs the interviewer was asking Jamie a lot of questions about how he sees the IPO market and for those that don't know an IPO is simply an initial public offering and it's when a private company decides to sell a big new batch of shares to the public for the first time this process raises a whole lot of funds for businesses as they are selling new shares to investors and then from that moment on the shares are then publicly traded between investors on an exchange so they become publicly traded the Nuance to understand with the IPO market and how that relates to stock market valuations is that generally lots of IPOs take place when the stock market is in a speculative Mania whereas not many IPOs happen at all around the time of recessions and Market downturns take 2008 for example and the reason for this is because private companies really try and game the system with IPOs they essentially want to hold off until the most speculative and overly optimistic times in the stock market because it generally means that money is flying around and they'll probably be able to raise a boatload of money from investors at a lofty valuation so it makes their job a lot easier and more lucrative but what's interesting about right now is that despite the S&P 500 being at practically all-time highs there really isn't a huge amount of IPO activity taking place there's been a deterrence to really going public as quickly as in the past do you still see that is that a structural change or is that something that's cyclical just having to do with rates it's a complicated subject yes there's private capital and I think it's a good thing that people can raise money the private Capital markets but it's a little odd that you know public markets are quite elevated and IPOs haven't G up very much yet so part of is they have access to Capital part of they're waiting part of is they reduce their own cash burn they don't need as much cash so it's a whole bunch of reasons why they're not going public so do you expect that to pick up in the near future or do you think it's going to remain muted for the foreseeable future I don't know I honestly don't know I think it may very well stay muted because you know markets may come down as opposed to just go up endlessly and they may find other sources now that's an interesting perspective from Jamie he thinks the IPO Market will stay muted because he doesn't anticipate particularly strong Market optimism and as he noted a lot of the reduction in IPO activity may be because most companies are raising money okay in private markets however it does show you Jaime's broader perspective on the stock market there's a pretty good backlog growing of IPOs of companies you know whether it happens or not is a different thing and markets are open when you say open they're very you know values are high they're not low both equities and bonds you know credit spreads are very low so they're open but people are saying they're not open for IPOs they're open for those who the market wants to buy today sometimes people would go public they don't like the price that's a very different thing and that kind of hits the nail on the head the markets are open it's just that at the moment there might be some hesitancy from public investors as to the price they'd be willing to pay and that therefore causes hesitancy from the private businesses as to whether or not they decide to list and this might sound slightly speculative from Jamie Diamond but at the same time you do have to remember that his company JP Morgan is literally the middleman company that assists these businesses to actually IPO so he definitely has a very strong understanding of things like the IPO Market but overall with that said that is Jamie Diamond's latest update on the state of the US economy one thing i' just like to ask is if you've made it this far into the video guys and you've not already subscribed please take the 2 seconds to click the button it really does mean more to me than you can ever realize and we're actually hoping to work towards that big million subscriber Milestone across the next few month mon so any support from you guys is greatly appreciated I really really really have to thank you guys for that but with that said thanks very much for watching please leave a like if you enjoyed and I'll see you guys in the next video
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