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빌 애크먼의 퍼싱스퀘어 포트폴리오(약 65억 달러 규모) 보유 종목을 차트 중심으로 점검한 영상이다. 결론: 영상은 로우스(LOW)를 중심으로 레스토랑·부동산 관련 보유 종목의 단기 기술적 흐름을 설명하며, 특정 종목의 방향을 확정적으로 예측하지는 않는다. 로우스(LOW): 주가 126달러 부근이 상단 저항으로 제시되었고, 단기 지지는 110~115달러 구간으로 언급되었다. 주간 차트상 강한 V자 회복 후 신고가 근처에 있으며, RSI와 거래량 지표가 추가 상승 여력을 시사한다고 설명했다. 목표가 126달러는 근접 목표로 제시되었다. 하워드휴즈(HHC): 상단 저항 50달러, 하단 지지 43~44달러 사이 횡보 구간으로 분석했다. 부동산 시장 전반의 약세 우려를 언급했으나 방향에 대한 명확한 전망은 없었다. 스타벅스(SBUX): 79~80달러가 200일 지수이동평균선 부근의 강한 저항, 71달러가 지지로 제시되었다. 박스권 횡보 중이며 돌파 또는 이탈 여부를 주시하라고 했다. 명확한 방향 전망은 제시되지 않았다. 치폴레(CMG): 과거 대비 큰 반등 후 전고점 부근이며, 식당 방문 증가와 배달·테이크아웃 수요 확대로 실적 개선 흐름이 언급되었다. 애크먼이 지분을 일부 축소한 점도 함께 언급했다. 힐튼(HLT): 80달러 부근 저항, 63달러 부근 지지 사이에서 8일·5일 이동평균선이 21일선을 상향 돌파한 점을 매수 세력 유입 신호로 해석했다. 80달러 돌파 시 200일선 테스트 가능성을 언급했다. 출연자 전망 및 리스크: 진행자는 경기 재개(단계적 영업 재개) 여부와 소비 회복에 따라 레스토랑·호텔·부동산 업종이 좌우될 것으로 보았다. 다만 차트 분석 기반이며 예측은 불가하다고 명시했고, 실적 발표 전후 변동성이 동전 던지기 수준이라고 경고했다. 애크먼 포트폴리오 개요: 로우스 약 16%, 치폴레·스타벅스·힐튼 등 외식·숙박·부동산 중심 구성이며, 버크셔 해서웨이 등 대형 지주사 보유도 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
what are creators what have investors today we're gonna be looking at some Bill Ackman's investment ideas we talked about him a ways back when he made a particular bed on the overall pandemic and netted a couple billion dollars from that basically putting him in the honorably Wall Street bets Hall of Fame again if you don't know how Bill Mac at Bill Ackman is he comes on CNBC a lot he is a basically a hedge fund manager for Pershing Square Capital Management and he's been in the game for quite some time he's made some very notable bets he bet on JCPenney recovery this is many years ago he bet against Herbalife or for some reason that companies still around but now he he still actively runs his portfolio and we're gonna be taking a look at that here in a second so one of his biggest holdings as you know or it may not know is actually in Lowe's currently so Louis is about 16% of his weight he had a substantial position in Chipotle I think he's held Chipotle for quite some time we can also look at the reduction again we're only able to get these forms of his filings every quarter so every four months you can kind of see that he reduced his overall position size in Chipotle again we don't know at what time frame from December to the beginning or I'm sorry the end of March and then potentially with April May we had a pretty big run-up because there knows that Chipotle has netted over well over $1,000 stock price again so excuse me this is looking at the overall positions he currently has we'll go look back at here we're gonna particularly talk about lows we can talk about Burke shape Burke share elegant we can look at that we can look at Chipotle Starbucks is when we kind of talked about heat as well but it's basically a lot of his investments are within the restaurants and real estate and asset management stuff with a travel and leisure of Hilton hotels holding so we're just going to kind of dive into basically the for larger positions we can look at Berkshire but that we know that it's a huge conglomerate of different things so it's gonna be kind of hard to price it that out alright so let's go ahead and jump into the very first one so we look into CMG so this one has had a pretty awesome recovery again we don't know what time he sold this in the first quarter of this year but around the end here which is right here was the end of the first quarter in 2020 again it's had a pretty big swing we pumped this out to the weekly chart as had a pretty enormous run I believe he got into it around 17 and 18 or due to the overall coli outbreak within their restaurants on multiple locations since then they have changed on how they've prepped food and how they handle food how they manufacture food and how the whole supply chain of things ever since then basically clearing of that since the 2018 low it's just been writing up the 21 exponential moving average having a couple hiccups here and then of course since recently due to the pull back literally went down to 417 ish dollars and then literally made a v-shape here on the weekly chart and now it is pumping up to all-time highs with a very strong last quarter indicating that they're actually making more money due to people working from home people staying inside and ordering delivery and takeout and they're just making gangbusters over there that be said Bill Ackman did lower his stake in that company which is we don't know for whatever reason tell us he's his forte then we can also look at Lowe's the Lowe's Home Depot what kind of a kind of person how you swing this had a really good quarter strong online sales they're baking making a really strong transition to update a lot of their technologies within the business again as you know as well if you already may not is that Lowe's and Home Depot their special season is the gardening season that is some of the higher margins they have on everything from mulch to potted plants to anything regarding of revamping your interior or exterior of your house in the sense of tools and different various things that people need to do that and they are basically the two major players in the business that allow folks to do different various home improvements to their house or their living situations so that being said it has a pretty pretty it's pretty close to hitting back to where it was beginning of the year which is a high at 126 we can kind of look at here on the weekly chart again this is a weekly chart but this goes back 20 years so if we just look back and basically since 15 ask a little flow section change this I'm sorry it's a little too much information it's been in a crazy trading range between like the 100's and then kind of breaking out a little bit but it's having these huge waves huge waves here and then coming back down huge waves and then kind of right up and then of course a huge crash down and then the nice v-shape recovery as well as on the data on this is the weekly chart going back to the daily chart here we can kind of see here that it's trading really close to the 21 exponential moving average hovering around the 8 and 5 exponential moving average here as well continue trying to ride this momentum side up breaking really well through the two hundred exponential moving average so this kind of broke through it said hello came back down gave it a big kiss on the cheek and then continues flying higher again for upward resistance we were looking at 1:26 so let's make that indication there for support we're going to be looking down to the 21 so it's gonna be in Italy around the 1:10 level and then I'm gonna flip you over to this chart and again very short term for short term support would be around 115 if it kind of slowly comes back to that if it breaks the 115 the 106 107 level is gonna come into play here as well with the 200 exponential moving average unless it has a complete red day like this over here it could have a pretty strong momentum and kick through it the RSI is actually very high on this one this is it gonna give it more strength and more pushing power will meant I'm somewhat flat same with the squeeze but the volume oscillators indicating really strong basically what the RSI is saying potential for higher movement so looking at 126 to be a pretty good price target within the near-term furniture future but again we don't have a crystal ball here we can't make predictions we'll just have to wait on what the price action gives us and we trade off that so that's lows in a nutshell I wanted to look at actually one that's kind of been beaten up which I haven't actually ever traded I don't believe I had to look it up was this Howard Hughes corporation so it's h HC and this is a straight real estate play and of course this has been hit pretty substantial again I don't know I know who Howard Hughes's I know you owns multiple buildings but back in the day bought multiple buildings but I don't know what the what a particular owns owns you know Zane that being said again we're looking at the moving averages and the trend so forth is of course we had down like everything else in the market but now it's just kind of a trading sideways so this is gonna fall less of a v-shape and more of an l-shape bottom where where does it we do this fell and then we're continue trading sideways until another shoe drops or someone gives us a rope to climb up above the 21 you can see here we've failed multiple times you're one-two-three call it three times here at the 21 looking for some overhead resistance at basically it's called 50 bucks and then course downward support is looking at around the 44 to 43 level we're just put it here at the lower tier at or below again I don't know anything at the fundamental side of this business but real estate has been hit with the overall market in particular if they owned some corporate real estate because a lot of companies are switching a lot of them worked from home some of theirs not even pay their bills especially with restaurants and businesses really being stretched and feeling like the strain on not having the consumers or the people seething even a keep it sorry you're not even able to come into the restaurants to get food and so forth so we'll see what happens there for Howard Hughes company all I wanted to talk about out just had a trade execute there sorry so another position that he owns about 10% of his portfolio and his Starbucks he did reduce a little bit of this I believe or he XR he added to it on the last quarter so again this could have been this downward trend he added to it we are seeing this very close here some really strong overhead resistance at the 200 Spencer moving average again it's gonna be around 79 to 80 dollars and then some ongoing support here at 71 it's just kind of trading sideways this is kind of more like a you maybe it could be a W if it goes lower recovery in the sense of it's just kind of waiting for the economy to potential start opening up more states go into phase 2 or 3 or being more loose on what restaurants can hold and of course this is going to trickle down to Starbucks and having people and patrons be able to come back in and get their $7 Frappuccino yeah that's basically my two cents I'm not a Starbucks kind of guy I love coffee but I don't like Starbucks coffee I'm kind of ranting here I apologize so again this is the the bull and bear case again breaking above 79-80 closing above it and then the bear case would be the five and eight exponential moving our arms are going to come lower breaking through the 21 because you can see the 21 has been pretty strong support here the eight and five really haven't touched it or really crossed through it kind of bouncing in around it again within a very tight range I can actually draw you guys a lovely little box to kind of highlight the what I mean by this trading range this is the trading range that we're talking about here looking for a breakout or a break lower so be mindful of that if you're trading or even in Starbucks and let's do let's do Hilton holding so they're actually I actually own a little bit of Marriott stock back in the day so this looks very similar to what we're just looking at here this is probably just looking at a potential seeing how the economy kind of rebounds and opens back up trading in a very like an l-shaped kind of recovery here we're not above the 200 not really near it but we're having some ongoing resistance here around $80 so we can draw that line here and then ongoing support around 63 let's see there we go the 8 and 5 kind of just crossed through the 21 which is great that's an assign of indication of more buying potential people getting into the stock again and additionally some upward strength potentially the force through to break above the $80 level and potentially try to test the 200 potentially in the next 3 or 4 weeks or even sooner if you're looking down further the chart ours is kind of flat I just kind of tilted to the lower though silly momentum is fair this is not something I'd be running out and like I'm gonna miss this trade it's gonna be a very slow mover I think they kind of substantially cut their dividend we just had the RSI switch here in the weekly chart looking for potential high again that really key around 81 to 82 could be a huge indication to try to break out its break above it we are currently trying to get above the 200 exponential moving average on the weekly chart here to try to close above this would be a pretty good sign I like that the parabolic SAR on the weekly chart has already switched over was the switched over on yeah I was already switching over the daily chart but the weekly chart being this most likely being more longer-term trade because it doesn't really move substantially up or down unless there's a pandemic going on that moves substantially down but that being said we need to see more information out in the market to see if people are going back on vacation what are they doing how there's been in their money and is being mindful of that so that being said those are basically stocks that we are looking at here again this is all bills Ackman's majority stake holders oh I'm sorry we've literally forgot a B again ma B so this one's performing I actually like this one this looks interesting I can I'm gonna do a quick fib here cuz it looks pretty interesting yeah failed at the seven 78.6% tile so we're gonna create a adder above there and then this is interesting too because the six one eight percentile move lines up exactly with the twenty one exponential moving average for some ongoing support if it bounces lower so what we'll be looking for again earnings are coming out today after the bell for a potential kick higher or lower again where does earnings sing for this with uh they don't have a really good weeklies for this stock so that's gonna be hard to predict but the nearest term is can plus or minus $7 so give it plus or minus five dollars we're currently so that could hit the 85 marker which is the bull case and then this would be the 79 which will be below the 21 and so forth so coming into the 34 especially moving average would be around 77 to 70 77 to 76 level due to the 34 and the 200 exponential moving average kind of being there for support to the downside again like you know we do not have a crystal ball here on the channel I don't think anyone does neither does Bill Ackman but again be very mindful especially when you're trading options or anything or hanging stock around earnings it's a complete coin flip the RSI is it was trying to print up but if this breaks through this little purple dot here this is gonna switch to be negative but again with earnings on the horizon being in four hours from now it could be a complete coin flip so be very mindful of that I like that it has made a better recovery than a lot of other stocks I'm not very well versed in these life science applied diagnostic companies so locally on a strictly chart just kind of work around these parameters of the bull and bear case again guys again this is Bill Ackman's overall portfolio that he's holding for Pershing Square and that values around six point five seven billion dollars and it's a huge substantial position and a lot of huge companies like Lowe's Hilton Chipotle and Starbucks thank you again everyone for watching don't forget to Like and subscribe and if you want to join our fantastic discord chat you can do that by the chat down below by just joining completely free and if you want to help support the channel we also have a patreon there for some extra bonus stuff appreciate it thank guys have a great trading piece
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