저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 17000 지지 여부가 불안정하고 외부 신호가 나빠 조정 가능성이 크며, 실적 부진은 원자재 업종에 집중되고 은행·금융·자동차·FMCG는 상대적으로 낫다는 취지. 글로벌 시장과 외국인 매도: 외국인이 매도 후 다시 들어올 때 이미 가격이 크게 오른 상태라 고통스러운 진입이 될 것이라는 주장. 인도 시장 밸류에이션은 과거 대비 높은 프리미엄 상태. 실적 전망: 철강·알루미늄 등 원자재 기업 실적은 하락(철강 6~8% 수준 하락 언급, 일부 50~60% 감소 가능성), 반면 은행·금융·자동차·FMCG는 성장 기대. 자동차는 기저효과로 두 자릿수 성장 가능성 언급. 은행권: 자산건전성 악화 사이클이 끝나가며 신용비용이 하락할 것이라는 전망. 다만 향후 2~4년 내 추가 부실 가능성 언급. 시장 조정 리스크: 40년 경험상 20~30% 조정 가능성에 대비하라고 조언. 지정학 리스크(미국·러시아·우크라이나·중국) 언급. 종목 관점: FMCG 기업은 현금흐름 품질이 좋아 장기 보유 적합하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
The market's movement has once again been disrupted, where new peaks were expected, but now there is a challenge of staying above 17000. Global signals are bad, then its trend of falling continues. In such a volatile market, if anyone can guide you correctly, then it is the most experienced market expert, Ramdev Agarwal.
We have joined us today in the Market Guru series, that is, the founder of Oswal Financier Services, Ramdev Agarwal. Ramdev ji, first of all, thank you so much. Today you came to the studio, I made you a request and you accepted it and you are in the studio, thank you so much for that. Managing Director of Awaaz, the biggest voice for us, the voice of Hindi, the voice of Hindi channels, the biggest voice, and the voice of Hindi in the entire country from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, the way you people speak in Hindi, it has a different effect.
You have given us a great voice, a big voice of our country, and we will try to raise this, Ramdev ji. And Ramdev is the one who was talking about what you said in Teej also that you did not call, then he sold it, right? They may have sold by whatever means but they will have to come back and it will be a very painful entry, we have already seen that but the prices have increased so much because they bought at a much lower price than what they had sent, so what, and it is going to be painful for them in the future, they are interested in making money, whether they earn in India or China, witness, in Korea, they do not know any difference, they want to make money from our market or any other market, now clearly what has happened is that brother, China is slum, you are 10p and they have state at 10, 20, 21, 22p, so our mother, our valuation is not that wrong from our own history, but with the history of our emerging market, it looks huge premium, so that is a challenge, now that challenge can end only when our position becomes very strong, so just like today, if you see the headlines, I also talk to the head office, then the aggregate will come lower because the commodities which were sold at a very high level last year and now they have come down to a very low level, the basics are clearly also Going down, okay, means the steel companies are going down by 678% and the aluminium companies are lower, so all that is happening in the index, due to that, the air on air aggregate will look a little big but it will be structural, so it will be very divided, in this date earnings will decline by 50-60% in some, your commodities will decline but a lot will be made up, banking, financial services, automobile users and also aggregate, I dazzle looks mad, sorry aggregate looks bad, but sectoral devices are going to be cute, interesting users of commodities, in your time, among the users of commodities, auto comes like FMCG and two-three sectors, the base was very bad, is the base not that bad in consumers, sir, so it will come like 15, 12, 15%, but like your automobile is sequential, it was very bad, so it happens like 300 times 300, but have the stocks already absorbed it, absorb it, you see that when Very good numbers are coming from ministerial numbers, so the spike is very limited, now more will give more because the very fixed few and furious actors are doing well, so this corporate unins growth is what we mean by ultimate will get free number premium on the growth, if there is no growth then give CR on de losang wicket, that means brother, you have speaker take 25 speaker take 30 speaker, that is your wish too, that means double force, if my corporate stock, then the retail which is being seen by you at this time, you will say that you should not be afraid of saving for your income and in this decline you have to buy back the growth sector, you should buy that, like you are BF, right now this is the first leg of growth and that means credit cost will come down further for you by 16-16%, so the system has become very big, so its effect will be seen in all the banks and NBFCs in future, so the opening of that will be seen brother, if you grow 25 questions in ₹20 then the operating level will definitely come, so its effect will be there in all of it now and a little valuation in banking There is comfort too.
I was watching when people are coming out of so much trouble that people are afraid whether to bet more or not, but in banking, I was talking to Madhu, Madhu had said that look at the pain in banking in the last 10 years, regarding asset quality, it was the highest and now such pain is again there, isn't it difficult, you agree, he did not have to take the matter there, some have done a lot of cleaning and some haven't, so the ultimate stress has happened, which means there is no one left in the bank, without the land, if cleaning has happened once more, then now it means brother, you will have to create new books in which you will make mistakes, this is the whole story, this is completely legal, yes, there will be a mistake, but it will be a mistake, it will be a mistake and its cumulative fact is still two-three years, four years ahead, I do n't know how soon, there will be a mistake, but there will definitely be a mistake, there is a clean field, you have a very clear address for the next one, that is, Virat Kohli has just started, he has to score a century, but the one from 5 years ago is not the one from today, it is important to clarify that a little, so this is good, Ramdev ji and the sector Before we talk about this, let's talk about one more thing about the market.
One, it has always been your view that Azan investor, you should ask this question that how much downside is there in the market because upset is huge, when it comes, it will make you feel good and will bring downside but how much and if it is limited then you can have a little positive story, in 40 years I have seen connection up to 60 thrice, I have seen 60% 60% trap up to 40, 35, 40, so it is not like I have become my own, so you can close the market, correct word, but you should be ready for correction of 20, 25, 30%, I am not saying that you people know about it, but yes, because there is so much disturbance worldwide, I mean who knows who will do what, I mean all this, America, Russia, Ukraine, China, then so all this, means actually the external geopolitical race is very much, it has a direct connection with economics, sometimes the comedy press increases, sometimes the commotion which had increased so much now That crashes are also going to be hard.
If your rise has benefited someone, then its declaration is also heart related, okay, and it will also be beneficial, so central comes very strongly. Okay, so we are talking about the Sikar channel, then this one factor which has been most pronounced in the last one year is that there has been a lot of selling in it and that money has all gone into domestic stocks.
How much is left in the trade now? Or do you feel that white has also become a buyer? How much is left? Will you believe it? Look at the character, sometimes it is very much like brother, where I have their compounder from 10 to 20 years, every year it is 10, sometimes up to 20, sometimes up to five to three, but every year it has been positive.
The quality of cash flow is the best part from the same FMCG company. I think that 90% to 95% cash conversion is yours. If the operating cash flow of this son will be such an industry. So there is no one, there was 1% of the industry, in two years, today it is up to 24, so everything in this industry goes up and down, but you have faith that brother, you will keep 10, you will keep till 12, you are keeping 15, as if you have bought a lot sustainably, you should not even touch it, we will ask for a lot, again it is okay like stock.
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