저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 은행 섹터 긍정적, 제조업·내수 중심 투자 유망, 단 금리·유동성 긴축 리스크 존재. 은행 섹터: 민간은행 중 일부 기업의 이익 사이클이 바닥권에서 회복 중이며, 9개 은행 중 상당수가 40~50% 수준까지 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 이익률 24%대, 잉여현금흐름 높은 기업이 유망하다고 언급. 제조업·내수: 지난 10년간 제조업 성장이 부진했으나 PLI(생산연계인센티브) 등 정책으로 수출·내수 기회가 커지고 있다고 평가. 방산 등 제조업 세부 분야에 성장 기회가 있다고 봄. 수출보다 인도 내수 수요에 더 확신을 가짐. 시장 리스크: 시장에서 빠져 있는 것이 가장 큰 리스크라는 입장. 시장 타이밍보다 장기 보유 및 비중 유지 강조. 글로벌 거시: 인플레이션이 고착화되어 각국 중앙은행이 긴축을 이어가고 있으며, 미국 연준의 대차대조표 축소(월 1000억 달러 규모)로 유동성이 타이트해지고 있다고 진단. 연착륙(soft landing) 가능성을 언급하며 침체는 있어도 대공황 수준은 아니라고 봄. 금리·환율: 금리 상승으로 신흥국 통화 압력과 자금 유출이 발생, 이로 인해 원화 등 통화 약세 압력이 나타날 수 있다는 취지. 공급망: 중국-인도 무역 및 항만 혼잡이 완화 중이며 물류 정상화가 진행되고 있다고 언급. 데이터 기반으로 전망을 수정할 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I wanted to ask you one thing, which is the last book you read at this time, which you would advise people to read because you read a lot, so any last book which you liked and from which you can learn some lesson, see there is a book of 2018, Mastering the Market Cycle, okay by hour marks, so I finished reading it, this book is so good, although it is not my type of choice, it is a bit based on timing, yes you change the odds of investing, all about odd, so you change the odds in your first oil investing, so it is said in it that brother, your pay off is behind it and it is okay, so obviously you have to time it, it will see a way date and your pay off is at the bottom of gear, but at the list like century, you have to here Anuj, always in the market, if there are 50 sectors, these 50 groups of stocks, then out of that, you should understand that even if there is a lot of bullishness, 30% will remain bullish, 20% are going to be negative, so you should always For example, in private banks, there is a 30-40 ratio in nine banks as well, so that cycle is currently in four, six, eight mines, but it is from 100 and is coming out of 70.
So where will it go, whether it will go to 40-50, whatever a particular price will come from there, then I tell you, do anything, register, do something, it will definitely work. So, clearly, there are two big sectors here, one bank and the other, it was discussed as per the second biggest, and I got that much profit, so your profit is 27-28% profit and free cash flow in banking, it is a little zero, okay, in this 24% profit, almost 20% is free cash flow, free cash flow, growing free cash flow, high quality free cash flow, is it, but how do you position yourself, do you get in this sector on your side and then you will date you to find the company which is going to be the best.
In this, Ramdev ji has given his opinion two-three times that look, it is okay, there will be some ups and downs but it will continue, but you should look at the track record of the company and at what level they have done compounding and where will you take this call. Again, everything will not go down in a straight line, they have already come down a lot, so perhaps some opportunity is quite positive in banks.
Another theme that is emerging Ramdev ji is that nothing has happened in 10 years of manufacturing, you just focus, you agree, from that the opportunity in manufacturing is clearly visible, that is talking about export and internet opportunity, gravitational means that on top of what you had domestic, you can get extra growth under the Peli scheme because manufacturing, so you have to be, that means the government's focus is very much on how to take manufacturing forward so that jobs are created in the economy, which is left at 15-17% in GDP, do a push.
It is 20-25% less, so in that, for example, in manufacturing, you will see, there is a growth around the defense sector called manufacturing, you know, so on that side, I think what is more, see, I am more confident about domestic demand right now than external demand and external demand, also at least they are going to pay validity, when there is land, there will be significant premium domestic, so right now it is the most premium sector and customers are sitting in India, what they would do, so I would like you to have much more predominant share of consumption or revenue coming from India because that is predictable, okay, so what is the biggest risk in the market right now, Ramdev ji, I remember you had said that the biggest risk is not taking risk in the market, if there is no investment, then it is for the investor, the market is a market, it will continue to function as per its own, but for the investor, you know what should see Do you sit outside too much?
It means you can enjoy the market for some time. We are good, the rest who are inside are fools. It may seem like this when you look out for 10 years, 15 years. I have actually participated in the study of the market. You can do it, but do not reduce the allocation. This is my style and it has worked well because nobody can time the market.
If we feel that we have become a little bit because the market itself is collective, then today there are dark clouds, then it seems like a little bit of a mood. Tomorrow, when the writer will be there, the day after tomorrow, it will seem very different. So it is a little bit of a matter of type. The meaning is given in the anchor term perspective.
Greater opportunities for population. How do you look at all this that is going on in the global market? Inflation has become a monster for them. They are not able to understand how to deal with it. They themselves tried to get rid of the infection and now the infection will come, so now we are not able to understand how to deal with it.
Friends, where are all these going, how much impact will all this have on the Indian market and will the investor need to change his decision after seeing that or not, then this will definitely have an impact, their interest rates will increase significantly, so competitor currencies have to be comfortable, so these rates will also race, so due to that the cost of buying here will be liquid, you see 100 billion and it felt good, from here Modi billi from 6:50 brother less then 532, so significant portion is actual out flow, same portion I think 56% is because of the mark to market, but there is on 4550 billion dollars of loss of actual cash flow from here, so now how much is left to go, then liquidity will remain tight, I had asked my so, there is an increase in liquidity, significant tightness and lastly one and half one so cost of so money ki ki prij nahi padta hai, jaisa liquidation liquid padta First time, okay, date, you want to draw $100 billion per month.
Just four months ago, you had printing and also drawing, and they have a lot of Russia in their hands to control. They just want a soft landing. They don't want to surprise the economy or describe the economy. What they built, full employment, is this object. So, right now, let's see, you hold on to inflation, the cost of the same amount of lower growth.
Lower growth is also a recession, but not a depression. The difference between depression and growth, but depression is like absolute, which could be 1929-32. So, there's so much paper, their learning, print, money, and fire was up in the economy. So, you feel that they might feel that they are doing too much.
We should stop this a little bit. It's data driven, it's very difficult. Forecast verification is red, like supply side, and logistics. I had a company that told me about China-India trade. 90% decline would have happened, the container of 6000 would have been 600 and the next one would be according to 450, so but India Europe India declared that Haj only 50%, so right now I had some date that the conditions given for the ports in that have all ended, 995% vote congestion is over, so as all this starts decreasing, everything is not going to happen like this, okay it will get solved also, so you can be surprised when my data changes and you know I switch, as the data changes, I will not take any comments on it, okay, let's have one last question.
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