저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 2018년 주식시장 폭락 가능성이 높으며, 이는 과열된 밸류에이션과 기술주 쏠림, 정치 불안 때문이다. [시장 심리·보유 현황] 미국 가계·비영리단체의 주식 보유액은 2017년 3분기 17.28조 달러로 사상 최고치이며, 2007년 고점보다 약 7조 달러 많고 2009년 1분기(4.7조 달러) 대비 약 12.5조 달러 증가했다. 따라서 '가장 미움받는 강세장'이라는 주장은 데이터와 맞지 않으며, 주식 보유 확대는 자만과 열광의 신호다. [밸류에이션] 실질 CAPE 비율은 31.3으로 역사적 평균보다 약 87% 높고 닷컴 버블 이후 최고치다. 여러 밸류에이션 지표도 과거 평균 대비 고평가를 가리킨다. 비합리성은 오래갈 수 있어 지수가 더 오를 수도 있으나 얼마나 오를지는 의문이다. 향후 8년의 수익률은 지난 8년과 같지 않을 가능성이 크다. [인플레이션·임금] 물가는 오를 수 있으나 임금은 따라가지 못해 구제 효과가 제한적이다. 최저임금 15달러 인상은 이론상 모든 배를 띄우는 밀물이 될 수 있다. 공식 인플레이션은 오르지 않을 수 있으나 비공식적으로는 상승 중이다. [실물경제·부채] 강세장이 약 10년간 이어져 실물경제가 금융시장을 따라잡아야 하며, 이 과정에서 수많은 사람이 손실을 볼 수 있다. 미국 민간부채는 높고 중국 등 신흥국도 마찬가지이며, 부채 문제에 대한 조치는 없다. 트럼프는 2008년 위기 재발 방지용 투자은행 규제 완화를 원하지만 은행권도 우려한다. [금리·버블] 연준이 금리를 올리면 유럽도 뒤따를 가능성이 크고, 중국 투자 버블이 터지면 파급력이 크다. 미국 버블 붕괴 시 자산 가치 하락과 전 세계 은행 파산이 이어질 수 있다. 위기 때 최고 거래가 나오지만 지금 시장은 위기 전 밸류에이션을 넘어 사상 최고 기록을 세운 과열 상태다. [기술주·개별 종목] 페이스북, 애플, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 구글(알파벳)은 고평가 주식이며 시장을 끌어온 주도주로, 누군가 '임금이 벌거벗었다'고 지적하면 무너질 수 있다. 원 에셋 매니지먼트 CIO 에릭 피터스는 2018년 2월 14일을 시장 폭락 시점으로 지목했다. 스냅(SNAP)은 IPO가 17달러였고 3월 고점 27.90달러에서 약 47% 하락했으며, 항공사보다 시가총액이 높았던 것은 과열의 상징이다. 다만 피터스가 날짜를 틀리거나 너무 일찍 말했을 가능성도 있다. [정치 리스크] 트럼프 대통령 탄핵이나 사임 베팅이 나오며, 2018년 중간선거를 앞두고 공화당이 거리두기에 나서면 기업 주도 세력과 대통령의 갈등이 심화될 수 있다. 이 불안정이 투자자들이 자산을 재검토하게 만든다. [출연자 전망] 쉬프는 2018년 폭락이 올 가능성이 높다고 보지만 정확한 시점은 알 수 없다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
stock market crash coming in 2018 most hated bull market about to disappoint odds of stock market crash continue to stack higher on a regular basis we are told that this is the most hated bull market in history and that there's still a lot of money on the sidelines if you talk about a possible stock market crash as key stock indices are soaring you are ridiculed it's always important to pay attention to the data rather than just the noise the data is telling a stock market crash could be a more likely scenario than a massive rally look at the chart below it throws the argument of most hated bull market in history right out the window the chart shows the amount in equities held by households and nonprofit organizations in the u.s.
at the end of the third quarter of 2017 US households and nonprofit organizations held 17 point 28 trillion dollars in stocks it was the highest ever on record roughly seven trillion dollars more than the last stock market peak in 2007 in the first quarter of 2009 their stock holdings were just four point seven trillion dollars if this is the most-hated bull market in history how come stock ownership has seen a significant boost over the years if you were to do simple math American stock ownership increased over twelve point five trillion dollars now what stock ownership soaring says that more Americans are involved in the markets than ever before don't take it lightly this is a sign of complacency and euphoria if there is even a minor sell off it must be questioned if we could see panic kickin it has to be questioned as fast as Americans rush to buy stocks will they sell even quicker if this is the case we could suddenly have a rigorous stock market crash at hand keep in mind as this is happening we continue to see valuations go out of hand they are severely stretched the Cape ratio of the US stock market stands at 31 point three zero this is the price to earnings ratio adjusted for inflation and cyclicality this figure is roughly 87 percent above its historical average and at its highest since the tech bubble other valuation measures also say stock markets are overpriced relative to their historical averages where do we go from here dear reader their rationality can go on for a very long time so key stock indices could continue to go higher but it has to be questioned for how long and how high could they go could the S&P 500 double from where currently stands without a hiccup could the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 50,000 I have said it many times in these pages and they will repeat again it's very likely that there returns in the next eight years will not be the same as the returns in the last eight years we could be headed for a steep stock market crash sooner than later the current stock market rally we see is not the most hated it is loved dearly don't buy into the false optimism it could hurt your portfolio remember when everyone is optimistic it's time to pause and reflect will the stock market crash in 2018 market crashes happen they're supposed to be a normal part of the system the problem is that we don't know when they happen I don't have a crystal ball so I do not think I can predict what will happen tomorrow in the markets especially given that the current situation can be used to justify everything in its opposite yet as many of you I sense that a stock market crash in 2018 if not sooner is likely inflation could accelerate as so many are warning but even if this happens it will be a minor increase prices for goods will rise but wages and salaries will not we will not be able to buy or sell our way out of the correction the minimum wage increase to $15 could in theory act like the tide that lifts all boats yet there's a bigger chance that inflation might not rise officially unofficially inflation has been increasing considering that the bull market has been riding on Wall Street for almost ten years sooner or later the real economy will catch up to the financial markets it will hurt when that happens millions will lose fortunes as a much-needed correction occurs the economy is currently overheating that's why a stock market crash is imminent if you think about the future and the date of the next stock market collapse you may not want to invest in the stock market private sector debt is increasingly high in the United States but also in emerging markets such as China meanwhile nothing is being done about debt president Donald Trump wants to lift the restrictions on investment banks that Congress approved to prevent them from running into the same mistakes that contributed to the 2008 market crash yet even the banks are worried about Trump's plans the market outlook is gloomier and historically if the Federal Reserve raises rates in the US it won't be long before the Europeans follow suit the Chinese investment bubble can prove disastrous on its own when you had the impact of the u.s.
bubble bursting the stock market outlook becomes suddenly clearer it also becomes suddenly gloomier many assets will be depreciated and we will begin to witness bank failures worldwide and no longer only in the United States inevitably stock market predictions are going to be negative considering all the major parts of the economic system are vacillating the economic situation will be so degraded that beautiful women will marry beautiful men and not the rich take the case of the stock market although it is wise to take advantage of an economic crisis it may be wiser to just not play the game waiting for an event to invest this is where the best deals are made now the market is very high it's actually too high having surpassed pre crisis valuations and setting historic records surely there are stocks that are doing very well in times of economic crisis but it's diff to determine which stocks will survive the upcoming stock market crash that's because the causes of the next crash are inherent to the excessive price to earnings ratios of the stocks pulling the market but there are also other forces political and economic which carry the seeds of collapse watch those filings the investments in big data given the digitization of our world are like those words that sound familiar when you're learning a foreign language you think you know their meanings but you find out that it's not quite as clear the so called fine companies Facebook Inc nasdaq:fb Apple incorporated nasdaq:aapl amazon.com incorporated Nasdaq Am's and Netflix incorporated Nasdaq NFL X and Google now known as alphabet Inc Nasdaq Google are like that they promise big returns because you use them your neighbors use them yet they are overvalued and expensive stocks they also happen to be the locomotives market leading stocks all it takes is for someone to point out that the proverbial emperor has no clothes on to bring them down to reality one river asset management CIO Eric Peters is not wasting time he has already seen the market is naked when will the next stock market crash happen the chief investment officer has marked the date on his calendar Valentine's Day 2018 this is not to remind him to buy flowers for his wife rather this romantic occasion is when Peters expects the upcoming stock market crash but this is no ordinary crash Peters has described this potential event as nothing short of a market apocalypse investors have become soft they have gotten used to the market moving in a single direction except for a few occasions or Corrections any hint of a bearish trend has been cancelled the point is as Peter stresses that investors are so numb to the bull market they have no idea how to react when things start to go really bad mark the date February 14th 2018 Peters expects nothing less than a veritable market avalanche on February 14th 2018 but what will happen from now until Peters fatal Valentine's Day date although Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen hinting that she would be more flexible in considering rate hikes the Fed might still increase rates as a matter of inflationary caution and to ease its balance sheet in an effort to stem financial instability no doubt Peters perspective makes for some sleepless nights he might be right thus many investors will worry about cutting their losses and closing in on president gains rather than risk the financial apocalypse that could strike in February then again as experts as he is Peters might also be wrong he could be wrong especially in two ways he may have overshot the estimated date of the next stock market crash or he may have called it too early in the first case it adds more pressure on investors to break the bullish momentum which has afflicted them for so long in the second instance acting before February 2018 that very same bullish thrust acts like the little voice in your head encouraging you to hang on just a little bit longer to make that extra dollar the fact is that what markets are long overdue for a massive correction the correction risks turning into a major crash which could trigger another recession not unlike what happened in 2008 the tech stocks that have dragged the huge Trump rally are at risk of breaking down consider the fate of snapping and why is he snap better known as snapchat snapchat is in the midst of its own personal stock market crisis it could merely be the first salvo of the upcoming stock market crash snapchat has fallen below the IPO price of $17 per share to just over $15 in a single session in July it lost nine percent the day after its IPO March 2nd 2017 snap stock had touched $27.90 then the decline is over 47% but as you ponder the fact that snap lost almost 50 percent in less than half a year remember what Snap does it does not make airliners or cars it doesn't even run an airliner at bus service it is an electronic social media app with a quirky twist in the grand scheme of things if Facebook were an actual book snap might be a mere comma or at best a semicolon the fact that investors have allowed themselves to become so numb as to drive snap to a market cap rivaling exceeding targets corporation NYC TGT gives way to Peter's point last March snap actually traded higher than Kroger Co NYSC kr American Airlines Group Inc Nasdaq al and harley-davidson Inc NYC hog among others that's why you should pay attention to Peter's warning snap might be an exaggerated case but it perfectly reflects the phenomenon and the weakness of the tech sector driven market rally it took a Morgan Stanley NYC MS report to bring them snap rather than the most basic logic how could a minor app be worth more than a legacy US company like American Airlines at this point that would be legitimate to object that snaps massive drop was merely the market reacting to an overvalued stock in normal circumstances that would have been the start of the valid argument but these are not normal times there are many overvalued stocks and the overall assumptions that have driven the bull market are being questioned a bull market rarely occurs much less survives and political instability if there's one thing that characterizes US politics now its instability there are bookies in Brooklyn taking bets about president Trump's resignation some say he will do it within a year others sooner and others are rebelling he will be impeached considering that the 2018 Congressional vote is just less than a year and a half away the Republican Party which has a majority of Senators and Representatives now we'll want to take protective measures they want to keep their majority but if Trump continues to divide the country the Republicans might join the Democrats in making life difficult for the president that would turn the most dynamic sectors of American business and further against Trump already the most dynamic ce o--'s and company leaders like on CEO Jeff Bezos who's also a majority shareholder of the Highland E Trump the Washington Post have done their utmost to make life difficult for President Trump the divide in Washington could prompt Trump to take necessary risks to force some kind of partisan or bipartisan unity in order to save consolidate his leadership but until then the instability will make investors reflect about their investments such introspection will make many realize that the market is overheated even if they can manage to keep fear and panic under control there's no telling how far down a market correction can reach you really stretched the Cape ratio of the US stock market stands at 31 point three zero this is the price to earnings ratio adjusted for inflation and cyclicality this figure is roughly 87 percent above its historical average and at its highest since the tech bubble other valuation measures also say stock markets are overpriced relative to their historical averages where do we go from here dear reader their rationality can go on for a very long time so key stock indices could continue to go higher but it has to be questioned for how long and how high could they go could the S&P 500 double from where I'm currently stands without a hiccup could the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 50,000 I have said it many times in these pages and they will repeat again it's very likely that the returns in the next eight years will not be the same as the returns in the last eight years we could be headed for a steep stock market crash suit brought out of the correction the minimum wage increased to $15 could in theory act like the tide that lifts all boats yet there's a bigger chance that inflation might not rise officially unofficially inflation has been increasing considering that the bull market has been riding on Wall Street for almost ten years sooner or later the real economy will catch up to the financial markets it will hurt when that happens millions will lose fortunes as a much-needed correction occurs the economy is currently overheating that's why a stock market crash is imminent if you think about the future and the date of the next stock market collapse you may not want to invest it in the stock market private sector debt is increasingly high in the United States but also in emerging markets such as China meanwhile nothing is being done about debt president Donald Trump wants to lift the restrictions on investment banks at conquer stock market crash coming in 2018 most-hated bull market about to disappoint odds of stock market crash continue to stack higher on a regular basis we are told that this is the most hated bull market in history and that there's still a lot of money on the sidelines if you talk about a possible stock market crash as key stock indices are soaring you are ridiculed it's always important to pay attention to the data rather than just the noise the data is telling a stock market crash could be a more likely scenario than a massive rally look at the chart below it throws the argument of most-hated bull market in history right out of the window the chart shows the amount in equities held by households and nonprofit organizations in the u.s.
at the end of the third quarter of 2017 US households and nonprofit organizations held 17 point 28 trillion dollars in stocks it was the highest ever on record roughly seven trillion dollars more than the last stock market peak in 2007 in the first quarter of 2009 their stock holdings were just four point seven trillion dollars if this is the most-hated bull market in history how come stock ownership has seen a significant boost over the years if you were to do simple math American stock ownership increased over twelve point five trillion dollars now what stock ownership soaring says that more Americans are involved in the markets than ever before don't take it lightly this is a sign of complacency and euphoria if there is even a minor sell off it must be questioned if we could see panic kickin it has to be questioned as fast as Americans rush to buy stocks will they sell even quicker if this is the case we could suddenly have a rigorous stock market crash at hand keep in mind as this is happening we continue to see valuations go out of hand they are severe than later the current stock market rally we see is not the most hated it is loved dearly don't buy into the false optimism it could hurt your portfolio remember when everyone is optimistic it's time to pause and reflect will the stock market crash in 2018 market crashes happen they're supposed to be a normal part of the system the problem is that we don't know when they happen I don't have a crystal ball so I do not think I can predict what will happen tomorrow in the markets especially given that the current situation can be used to justify everything in its opposite yet as many of you I sense that a stock market crash in 2018 if not sooner is likely inflation could accelerate as so many are warning but even if this happens it will be a minor increase prices for goods will rise but wages and salaries will not we will not be able to buy or sell our
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