저자: AngeloZeno · 외국인
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마벨(MRVL) 실적은 소폭 상회했으나 반도체 업계 전반의 멀티플 압축과 불확실성으로 하락 압력을 받음. 브로드컴(AVGO)은 실적 기대치가 달성 가능하고 AI 매출 약 65% 성장이 예상되며, 소프트웨어 비중 40% 이상이 방어적 요소로 작용해 기술주 하락분 일부를 회복시킬 수 있다고 봄. 옵션 시장은 AVGO에 약 ±9% 변동을 반영 중.
다듬은 글
stocks under some pressure this morning maybe we'll get some relief from broadcom today if the numbers are good Tom White's looking at the options and some trades for us Angelo Zeno is joining us from CF senior Equity analyst also covers marll so maybe we knock a question uh there out of the way Angelo marll H the short leash it seemed like the numbers weren't terrible but the Market's punishing them pretty harshly yeah no thanks for having me Oliver so when we kind of look at the numbers uh for Marvel specific spefically that I mean you can't really argue with the actual numbers they they essentially kind of slightly beat the numbers for the quarter the guidance was relatively in line I think at the end of the day the street was hoping for more but to be honest with you this was probably going to be a name that was going to sell off no matter what they posted this quarter and uh the reason I say that is there are just a number of kind of uncertainties that are really kind of hovering over the semiconductor space right now and really what the street right now is trying to do is Discount a lot of those risks and as result you're kind of seeing a lot of these multiples not only from ARL but you know clearly across the entire semiconductor Universe really come in and you saw it with Nvidia the prior week despite the fact that it initially popped and then you know really kind of got crushed so I think you're really kind of seeing this kind of uh multiple compression period which is what we actually talked about a couple of months ago across the semiconductor space especially as you kind of get longer in the two thinness cycles so um you know we'll kind of see what happens here on a going forward basis it does look like at this point in time a a lot of kind of the uncertainties out there have been discounted but I think at this point in time it's not necessarily kind of what the valuations look like it's more along the lines of kind of the the fundamental picture going into the second half of a year in into 2026 and whether or not you know these these Leading Edge companies can kind of meet some of those uh ambitious expectations uh I wonder how much of it is the market uh thinking there are pure AI plays I mean they've got a line of business several lines of business still that are mostly disconnected that are moving a little bit slower obviously and a little bit more of a drag even though that seems like they've got great AI growth driving the data center side of the business if I've got uh only limited amounts of uh Equity to put at play in the market is this the purest way to do it in terms of Marvel in in the AI space yeah yeah I mean listen I think um probably yeah there there other names you know clearly I mean Nvidia is probably maybe still the the purest way to to kind of play the the AI trade out there as far as if you're looking for that infrastructure buildout phase um and kind of long-term AI opportunity out there so Nvidia probably still kind of the most Tethered to that um AI opportunity out there but Marvel clearly near the top of that list uh where's broadcom fit Angelo we're at 18 uh3 bucks right now and that's almost exactly where it was last earnings before for the report and it did rally pretty big after yeah I mean I I'd say the one Saving Grace this company has at this point in time is the fact that it has kind of gotten beaten up going into the print so that that's prob you know that's a good thing I'd say when you kind of look at the expectations out there too I mean they're they're more than attainable you know for the this is a company that typically is fairly conservative on the guidance side of things you're looking at um semiconductor growth or maybe an overall growth out there of about 22% here for the jack January quarter uh earnings of about 151 and then in the April quarter we're looking at you know a short a slight deceleration towards about 18% growth and uh you kind of look at you know specifically you know where the where the potential upside could be of course it's it's going to be on the the semiconductor side I think specifically as you know tied to that AI Revenue which we expect to have grown about 65% on a year-over-year basis and um you know as you kind of look on a a towards the the April quarter out there the expectations again it look like they're more than attainable out there there is a lot of lumpiness as far as kind of the the AI business is concerned because they are heavily tied to the custom you know AI silicon business which you know is largely at this point in time for Marvel um alphabet and um meta as well as you know a company like a bite dance and there are potential some new customers coming on board here over the next 2 to 3 years so there's some nice you know growth opportunities tied to this company and what really is good about the BR com story clearly right now given the uncertainties about the semiconductor industry is the fact that they do have that software business which is north than 40% of their revenue and you know if you're looking for you know a way to play semis and have some sort of kind of Safe Haven there and a name that's kind of gotten beaten up here maybe broadcom is a name that could kind of salvage some of the the tech wreck we've seen here over the last couple of uh weeks it's a pretty compelling case love all the details especially uh next to the Marvel kind of Purity to AI conversations not that the broad necessarily like a more pure AI play but to your point you do get a nice balance of other businesses too to kind of firm it up just in case or as you don't have the drag so I like it but uh uh we got earnings to trade thanks a lot Angelo appreciate it all right thanks for having good stuff uh all right Tom so let's trade broom you got two ways to do it yep um option market pricing in pretty hefty 9% move either way and we've seen some of these you mentioned it marll pretty good earnings report got crushed DB pretty good earnings report guidance yeah so that's been um you know taking avgo down right it's down what nearly 30% from its all-time highs in bare Market territory option Market priced in that Hefty $165 move either way so I looked at a strategy if you think it's going to rebound 200 day moving average hit it today Oliver about one uh 17970 uh and bounced off of it so if you think it's going to Rally maybe a relief rally this strategy takes advantage of it looked at twoe wide call diagonal where I'm going to go out to the March 21st uh monthly options that expire in 15 days by the 178 strike call slightly in the money and then against it in the March 7th weekly options that expire tomorrow at the close sell the 195 strike call so a $17 wide bullish call diagonal paying roughly about a $95 debit it might be over 10 bucks right now uh there's the stock has creeped back uh from when I looked at it but if you pay a 950 de for it there's a risk 9950 bucks you break even about 183 so you're right near the break even right uh right now where you can be profitable to the upside you're taking advantage of buying about an 80% implied volatility in that March 20 uh 21st uh monthly options and the 178 strike selling nearly a 200% implied volatility in the near-term March 7th weekly 195 strike calls so this might be the way if you're a little bit more aggressive where you you think it's going to re you think it's going to go higher about that one standard deviation move this takes advantage of it all right uh so the call diagonal ready for a swing to the upside yeah um you do have another trade uh yeah tell me about it how's it different sorry about that uh little bit more conservative giving yourself a better probability of success uh going out to that same March uh 21st monthly cycle sell some puts yeah sell put vertical well hey we've seen two standard three standard deviation moves in this so we're selling a rist defin vertical not a uh naked short put on this one sell the one uh March 21st uh 170 strike put by the 160 strike put short $10 wide neutral to bullish put vertical collecting a credit of about three bucks takes your break even down to 167 that's nearly an 8% uh move to the downside before you start getting hurt on this trade risking about 700 bucks to make 300 thereabouts on this one but probability of of that short 170 strike being out of the money at expiration above 65% right now so that's what you want higher probability of success where stock goes up stack stays where it is stock goes lower remains above 167 you can be profitable on that one okay all right uh so sell the downside vertical if uh you're not feeling quite as ambitious or aggressive yes aggressive okay all right uh thanks Tom for the trades thanks Angelo Zeno for the analysis getting us bowled up on marll and broadcom
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