저자: RyanMallory · 외국인
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S&P500은 신고가 근처에서 VIX가 낮아 단기 조정 우려가 있지만 상승 여력도 남아 있어 롱을 유지한다는 입장. 시장 전반: S&P500 상단 저항과 하락 웨지 형성에 경계하면서도 패닉 매도가 없어 강세 유지로 판단. 빅테크: 페이스북·아마존은 50일선 저항 아래 횡보로 당분간 관망, 자본이 소형주로 쏠리는 흐름 언급. 애플: 1월·6월 저점 추세선 지지 여부 주시, 210달러대 또는 213~215달러 부근 분할 매수 관점 제시. 구글: 추가 상승 및 1,300달러 재도전 가능성 언급. 채권·은행: TLT는 급락 중이라 130~132달러 부근까지 기다렸다가 매수 고려, JP모건은 저항 돌파했지만 과열로 조정 후 진입 권장. 개별 종목: 테슬라는 350달러에서 손절했고 장기적으로 낮은 가격대 재매수 가능성 언급. 바바는 이중바닥으로 180달러 돌파 시 190~200달러 목표. 오버스톡은 변동성이 커 추격매수 지양. 블루에이프론·AMD·에어비앤비 등은 진입 타이밍을 조정 후로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everybody this is Ryan Mallory how's it going doing a market review going to go through some trade setups today take a look at what's really affecting the market what are the stocks that are driving the market higher what do we need to look at going into next week I'm here to knock all that out for you and to give you a little bit of insight into what you should be or should not be trading right now now look let's look at the S&P 500 from a much much bigger perspective here let's go all the way back to the beginning of the year here you can see we've bounced pretty pretty well off of the December lows and we've we've written that trendline up but then we broke it in in August and it doesn't look good when you break it and then since then since we broke it we consolidated and then we tried to break out of that consolidation to the upside so now we're breaking out to the upside we're holding this trendline on the 30 minute chart it's a little bit sloppy we've dipped below it a little bit up on it on a gap and also on an intraday move but you also have that this bearish wedge that's forming out that kind of concerns me because now we're also seeing that the markets hitting its head up against this old trim on here over and over again this week we've seen it we saw it late last week and it's not breaking through it and you also have this test of new all-time highs now what I don't like about the new all-time highs is that every time we seem to test the new all-time highs we go marginally higher we go just a little bit higher but it always results in these huge sell-off after the fact so when the VIX gets down to say like 11 or 12 you start to see these huge spikes and volatility you go back to April you see a huge spike in volatility and in May you go back to October right remember the sell-off to happen in October November and December look at that where to start from it started when we started selling settling in that 12 to 11 area on the VIX so where are we at right now we are all the way back at 13 88 so we're not there quite yet but it's something definitely worth looking at because you can see there's a huge support level and this 11 to 12 area where the market likes to bounce or at least the VIX likes to bounce the market likes to sell-off so going back to the S&P 500 we're back at the highs the VIX is getting low again not quite there yet but is getting close to that 12 range and we're starting to see a bearish wedge forming so that does create some concern we're seeing the price movements getting really small which tends to happen when we're when we're at or slightly making new all-time highs so I'm a little bit concerned there but I also think too on some of these indicators that we're seeing that there's a lot of room to run to the upside so I wouldn't count the Bulls completely out just yet I'm still long I'm not getting short there's not any like panic selling on the days that we do see some selling there's not a lot of panic selling okay like today for instance we're off the highs of the day yesterday we settled off the highs of the day but when we sold off the highs of the day we didn't see a lot of panic selling we didn't see volume flowing in that suggests that people were hopping out of the market going into safety stocks or anything like that so I think we're okay in that regard so let's go ahead and look at the fang stocks first Facebook hasn't really done much hasn't really participated in this rally at all over the last couple of weeks check this out it's got resistance at the 50-day moving average simply can't break above it this is dead money right now if you're trying to buy it long yeah it looks like it might be forming a base but there's no reason to get into it until it breaks out of that base same can be said about Amazon I've looked at this thing a couple times I keep waiting for it is it gonna break out of it technically it's kind of above that consolidation from August however it's got this 50-day moving average way and on it again it's consolidating when the markets rallying and that's the other thing team two right now is is that we're seeing the small caps get a lot of interest from the buyers right now and though and the big big large caps like like Amazon like Facebook they're seeing a lot of more like suppression in their price they're not really moving and so the thanks stocks are not quite as in favor with the market as the small caps are right now and what you're seeing is a lot of trashy stocks like Bed Bath & Beyond okay stocks that haven't gone anywhere they're rallying through the roof and then you're seeing even some of your more depressed energy companies of late they're pushing and going much higher now what about Apple I traded this thing I got stopped out earlier this week for a small profit it wasn't much it wasn't as much as I would have liked but it was still a profit so I'm not I'm not gonna go broke you know by by getting stopped out of it for a profit but you can see there's a trend line off of the January lowest remember when in the beginning of January our remember pretty bit Lily because I was in the stock at the time when they they came out with a calf or cast warning and the stock dropped like six or seven percent okay so that trendline is in place still it's still holding it but then there's another trendline off of the June 3rd lows that's that's also holding and that's one to be watching as well so it's been selling off the last two days today had like a Goldman Sachs downgrade I think where they lower the target son I'm not exactly sure but I'm not in it so I didn't follow it too much but what I'm looking at is the technicals on this and if it can pull back to this 210 area I think you have a shot at getting long on this and getting a nice bounce the other way to play if you don't think it's gonna go all the way down to 210 is to perhaps look at it in round 2 13 to 14 maybe even to 15 for a potential bounce off of support right in here so you do have some support in this area here where we're price Prices responded pretty well to bounces so two areas to 15 if you're wanting to be really aggressive with buying the dip on Apple the other one would be around 210 now Google I mean this thing you know you have all these probes you have all of these people wanting to break Google up and to lessen their influence on the internet this thing keeps checking higher and there's a good chance I think we'll see you know another push for a 1,300 again and test its all-time highs now why does this more you keep rally we'll look no further than the bonds okay the twenty year Treasury bond fund it just continues to plummet these bonds are getting destroyed and I mean when you see a rally that goes parabolic like this yeah it's great when you're on it but it doesn't last forever eventually this the profit takers are gonna say it's a snowball effect when you get one of these situations where the price rises parabolic just like it doesn't like beyond meat or any other stock when it gets like that it only takes a couple days of selling before the the snowball starts getting really big cuz everybody's like oh I'm not gonna hold on anymore I'm taking my profits and and all of a sudden you it's just getting hammered and and that's what you have right now in TLT it's just not worth being it that's also the source for the rally that we're seeing in the bank's right now so you can see I think you can see TLT come all the way back down the T it's at 130 150 before maybe 132 before you have a reason to buy this TLT if you're into the bond trading so speaking of banks let's look at JP in I haven't gotten into this Bank right probably should have didn't think that it was gonna rally six or seven days in a row it's still strong today kind of frustrating I didn't get into it but the reason why I did is because there's so much overhead resistance here and it broke through it today but you can see I'm time again it's tested this resistance level you can see multiple points here and then and again here and and they could even get to the resistance there I mean there was another little sub resistance level there at 1:17 it broke through it yesterday then of course you got the one at 118 that broke through that today by gapping above so the rally's been really impressive but I mean I didn't play just because I didn't have a lot of faith in the technicals I didn't like I didn't like the resistance overhead I felt like it squashed the ability to have a reasonable reward to the risk that you're taking on of course it broke through that resistance pretty impressive kudos to it and if you take a look at Bank similar situation there but still some heavy resistance flies overhead for it I definitely wouldn't be trading it at this point there's some resistance at 31 yeah sure maybe it breaks but this thing is a good deal over to over 10% since late August and so if it does break through 31 do you really want to be buying it at that level assuming that it's going to keep on trucking after its that overextended no what you want to do is you want to wait for some consolidation to come in and then provide you with a better reward to risk trading opportunity so remember we've talked about a parabolic right things going parabolic and what happens after they stop going parabolic we talked about it in TLT we had the same potential for that to happen in like the bank stocks if they continue to rally like what we've seen eventually they're gonna sell off when they get parabolic like this this isn't the time and place to be getting long on it now let's go ahead and get into some of these stocks that a lot of people are talking about and what's really headlining the market today first he got shot got out of this one at 350 once a day I was kind of depressed about it because I didn't want to get stopped out of it but I did I got knocked out it's like 351 it's down to 341 so obviously it was good to get out I raised my stop-loss took a 2.2 percent profit on it I was hoping that maybe we could get a push back to 380 before I saw any any kind of significant pullback didn't do that just too much resistance overhead there's people just continuing to book gains in it and now I think it's it may go even lower so where do you where do you get into it at this point well if you look at you look at the rally off of the February loads of going back to 2016 there's a solid trendline there and it hasn't tested a long time so could you make an argument that maybe over time it'll come back to this one I don't think it's gonna hit it tomorrow or the next day unless you have some just catastrophic news that comes out about it but perhaps perhaps it comes back over time and that's where you want to get back in from a long-term investing perspective now in the short term it's breaking through all sorts of moving averages it's not finding any support anywhere there's may be some here at 3:40 that it can hold on to if can't if you can maybe maybe it bounces there there's there's some support right there that could keep the stock stock from a completely falling all over itself but right now I'd stay away from it here's another trade that I'm in right now ba ba ba ba I've had a love and hate relationship with the stock so far in 2019 baba has been pretty pretty good to me it's got a double bottom it's really intriguing it's showing some solid relative strength today it's only up a half percent but for the most part it's been flirting with that 180 level today if we get a rally into the close maybe we'll revisit that level again but it's it's a pretty solid chart I like it I think it's trying to break out you know 179 is where I kind of marked the breakout level at and it's holding that level today after it gapped above it it's gonna have a really solid run here if the market can hold up I think 190 to 200 it could be a easy target price for it if this market doesn't so often there's no crazy China news that's coming out of the White House or out of Beijing now you got a lot of people talking about overstock I've never traded this at least I don't think I've traded this tight if it was it was like five or six years ago and I don't even know was it or even around five or six years yeah it was but embers head and shoulders pattern on the stock again this isn't really a trade for me to take it's kind of out of my wheelhouse in terms of taking on too much risk but the volume is pouring in it's pouring it a lot it's gone from 15 to 26 now yes it's close to breaking the inverse head and shoulders pattern and yes it actually broke it intraday today but now do you just get long on it just because it breaks that intraday head and shoulder the head and shoulders pattern going back to January of 2009 you don't buy it right away because look again it's parabolic it's overextended you're trying to buy a stock here on a break of this neckline at 27 60 when it was just that $15 earlier this month don't do that you've got to let this thing calm down settle in a little bit if it doesn't do it and it keeps going out okay it defied the odds and it kept going up okay but you can't manage risk at this level I mean the only way I can do is if I put a stop loss below the 5-day moving average and said okay if it breaks the 5-day moving average I'm out well this thing could swing easily below that 5-day moving average on an intraday move quite quite quickly okay it could do it before the end of the day today and I'd be stopped out but I'd be taking a massive loss I mean I'd be taking like a 5 buck loss on a $27 stock that's like that's like 27 or that's almost 20 percent you don't want to do that so calm down I know that I know the technicals on it looked pretty good but the risk reward is for Windus don't do it now what about the LDP now people are going to be saying look it broke the the September highs this is a $5 stock again it's kind of like OST K there's a lot of volatility in these place you've got to be careful if you're going to play you need to play it on a pullback to some kind of a support level or I'm gonna break out of some kind of consolidation but when it's up 6% today and let's be frank a couple days ago was at 460 so it's it's up 25% right now I can't stress enough that you have to wait for good opportunities you can't just buy it just because it's going straight up now the if you were to have gone into it the ideal place to have gone in on it would have been on this bull thigh pattern here or a broke out yesterday you could go in at $5 put a stop loss at 481 you have about a 4 4 or 5% stop-loss there it's at 5:40 you're making us a at least 2 to 1 at this point now blue apron I've again another stock I've not had any need to trade yet it hasn't provided me with a good straight setup people are probably getting excited because it's made a move from the sixes up to almost 9 I don't see any kind of technical development there maybe you have a double bottom right there but it's this is a messy messy chart you got a lot of upper shadows that make it very difficult you have huge price swings and we were just talking about it on the last chart you get these big intraday price swings that okay we've just seen going back over the past hour a 10% move to the downside so if you got in let's say $10 or $9.99 swing against your position that's that's not the kind of stocks that you want to be trading yes it's got volatility and yes it's it's got a lot of momentum one way or the other but you're not controlling the risk and that's the big problem now AMD despite Nvidia being down today AMD and you also have AVG o down today you have a lot of the semies down today AMD is holding up pretty well really well actually the problem is is that it's just stuck in this consolidation going back to last month it really hasn't done that then it's got some resistance at the 50-day moving average but it's just it won't it won't move out of it so I don't think you can get wom on it at this point I don't think there's a trade setup technically speaking now the risk reward is actually pretty good because you could put a stop loss below Wednesday's lows but the technicals aren't there so you need both the risk and the reward and the technical is to be there for you to get the trade setup that you want you only have one of the two and AMD cards now you got a nice rounded bottom here huge gap that's been unfilled so far the way I would play this wait for an intraday pullback to the $10 level put your stop-loss below the the lows of the last two days which is 966 it's the same on both of them so it's actually a nice place to put a stop loss maybe put it at 964 get in at 10 maybe 10 10 see see if it'll bounce back and write it you've got a good risk to reward there you got a setup of a nice base where it's trying to come out of that base push into the gap again wait for it to pull back some I don't think you want to chase it right here when it's up 7% on the day wait for it to come back some maybe even to like 10 27 or 10:30 finally let's talk about a video I just mentioned it when I was talking about AMD but it's it's worth it's worth a talk here you have a declining trend line off of off of the the may highest and it broke it yesterday then it had earnings and then it sold off but it's trying to make a pretty decent effort here to climb back out but from a longer-term perspective you also had this triangle pattern that it's kind of been stuck in so even though it's sold off today and people bought the dip probably wait for it to get back above today's highs before I took a long position in it now the stop-loss gets a little bit trickier because if you get in around them say 298 50 your stop-loss is going to be a need to be around 287 and change that's the best way that I would play it it did fill this gap so really it's responding very well technically on the chart fill the gap got bought up and so I think there's there some room to still run in this particular stock so that's gonna do it for today I appreciate you tuning and listening be sure to LIKE and subscribe and also check out my sewing trained community man it's awesome the swing trading splash zone a share pointer calm it's a great community of traders we're in there every day we're sharing ideas bouncing ideas off of each other's heads I'm providing my real-time trade alerts via text via email via a chat via whatsapp you name it I probably can can make it work for you so a lot of people in there everyday we're all working together we're conquering these markets on a month-by-month basis and a day-by-day basis and even a week-by-week basis we're trying doesn't mean that we're always profitable every day that not every day is gonna be a winning day but on the on the whole we're doing pretty darn good and would love to see you there thank you take care god bless thanks for watching I hope you enjoyed 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