저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴(AVGO)은 9~10월 이후 헤드앤숄더 천장형 패턴을 형성했으나 강세장에서 확인이 불확실하다고 봄. 200일선 지지 후 반등했고 현재 50일선 저항이 반복적으로 작동. 지수는 아직 상승추세 유지. 실적 발표 후 반응에 따라 조정 가능성 언급. 리스크 관리 측면에서 롱 진입 보상 대비 위험이 불리하다는 견해.
다듬은 글
I want to talk about Broadcom with you guys here. Stock symbol AVGO. Haven't really done a video on this one in almost a year now. And you go back to April. It was on this incredible run from $130 goes all the way as high as over $410 a share before the end of the year. But then it starts to get a little bit choppy starting in September.
It wasn't just this free flowing uh mooning stock that just had no roadblocks in front of it. come September and October and all the way to present day, it's has been a very very choppy chart and it's become a much more topping like pattern that we're going to go over. So, what I want to do in this video is I want to highlight the uh Broadcom chart AVGO and really try to determine whether or not there is a buying opportunity here, where the support levels are, where the resistance levels are, and whether or not you should be buying, selling, or holding.
So, let's go ahead and get into that right now. Right out of the gate, I talked about how there was a topping pattern of late. can highlight that one right away. You have this left shoulder, then you have a head, and then you have this right shoulder that is formed. Now, you've heard me talk about how so many times when you get head and shoulders patterns and and bull markets.
And still, even though the market's been pretty choppy of late, it's still a bull market. We haven't broken down yet. We're still holding key levels of support. And for all we know, we may still go ahead and make new all-time highs here in the next week or two. Very, very possible. But with Broadcom, you have this head and shoulders pattern.
And what happens oftent times and with a head and shoulders pattern in a bull market, this is what you want to remember with this pattern is that it will confirm, but oftentimes it'll only do it for like a day or two. In this case, it broke down and immediately found support at the 200 day moving average and and then squeezed the shorts right thereafter.
So, it it drops just enough to confirm, get people excited about this very traditional topping pattern, but it did so in a bull market. And when it does so in a bull market, it's very, very unreliable. In fact, I would say more times than not, it's not going to confirm or play out the way you would want it to.
In this case, it found some support at the 200 day moving average and bounced. It goes from as low as 295 all the way up to 352. That is a huge, huge move. That's about 20%. and then it comes back down and tests it again here. So that's where we find ourselves right now. We we have ourselves just above this 200 day moving average.
Almost tested it here again today holding this neckline of this head and shoulders pattern that's now acting as a bit of a launch pad for the stock. And then you have this 50-day moving average that is this red line right here over the top of it. And you can see where price continues to get re rejected at this level.
So, I do think that there is a limited reward to the upside as long as this 50-day moving average continues to push back. You get again, you can see where it did so already multiple times this month, did it so again in January, it on on multiple occasions as well. It has been quite a problem for and then when it's traded above the 50-day moving average, it has acted as support on numerous occasions.
You know, October, November, you go back to uh September, it acted as support even in August. So there is a huge history there with this moving average acting as both support and resistance. And so with price trading where it's currently at, it'd be foolish to just assume that it's going to break through this because there's there's quite a bit of a track record there of it falling apart every time it tests it as resistance.
Now, that's not the only thing worth highlighting. You also have some support here that could come into play if we were to get into a bare market. That's that is still possible even though right now we're in a bull market. But if you do see this this channeling pattern that we have in SPY right now and I'll I'll pull that up for you.
But we have this nice channel that we have been in in SPY. We're struggling to hold it right now. And so if that ends up breaking to the downside, yes, AVGO head and shoulders pattern becomes much more legitimate at this point. But even if you look at like the NASDAQ, we're still holding on to this major rising support level right here.
So, there's still some work to do if you're wanting to get bearish on AVGO. The market is not confirming or giving you a reason to necessarily get bearish on stocks at this point in time. You have to wait for the technical developments to to start confirming those moves. It feels like it, but it's not playing out that way on the charts just yet.
And also rising trend line here on AVGO. You could see where we talked about this 200 day moving average being a consistent line of support back in 2024. Tested it multiple times. April, we blew right through it. Recaptured it very fairly quickly. So this would be the outlier area right here of where we have not held it in the past.
But overall, you have a good trend line here, long-term trend line. So that if you do get a pullback um and it can't hold the support here at 244, this level here at 212 currently and that goes up each day would be the next level to be watching for. We look at it from a weekly standpoint. Yes, it's very very parabolic.
This definitely looks like a topping pattern, but you don't have the market to validate that topping pattern just yet. It needs to have that. Now, you may get that with the upcoming earnings in this stock. If you get a a very bad reaction, you may get a 10 15% pullback and then that can really get the wheels turning too where you get something more like Amazon that continues to sell off or may maybe even worse like Netflix that just continues to struggle and not be able to find find its bottom at all.
So with Broadcom, there's a lot in play. Can it be played to the long side right now? Yes. But I think the reward risk aspect is a bit challenging. You could play it below the lows of the day, that's about $16. So, you're talking about about a 5% stop loss. For me personally, I wouldn't go much further than that.
In fact, um you know, probably around like 312 would be the max that I would take on from a from a risk standpoint, and that would put it just below the 200 day moving average. Uh to the upside, it needs to break that 50-day moving average. So, if you get into it, you may be very limited in your reward.
And I think that would be the drawback for me uh personally wanting to trade this stock because that 50-day moving average has been such a uh hardnose about letting price sneak through. It just hasn't really let it do that at all on the previous what four or five attempts. So, you got to assume that it's going to push back once again.
There's a lot of charts out there that that can be very alluring and you always want to take it back to what is the reward risk ratio on it? Can I manage the risk? And so oftent times and I would probably say like nine out of 10 uh trade setups that I come across, I like the chart, but I'll find that it's not really manageable from a risk standpoint.
In the end, it's not so much finding really good charts. It's finding charts that you can manage the risk on because oftent times your trades are not going to work out the way you want. And you don't want to take huge losses. You want to take the small losses so that when the trades do work out, you can maximize those gains and let those previous bad trades or or losing trades have a much more minimal impact on the profits that you make on your winning trades.
If you enjoy this podcast, actually this is not a podcast, this is a YouTube video, but if you enjoyed the YouTube video and and I surely hope that you did, uh, make sure to like and subscribe and let me know down in the notifications. What what you think of Broadcom? Is this a stock that you would play off of this neckline on the head and shoulders pattern or would you wait until after earnings?
With earnings getting closer and closer, it may be worth just waiting for that to pass. if it's a well-received earnings report, may break through that 50-day moving average and uh provide a good setup as well. And remember Romans 6:23, it says, "For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord." Thank you. God bless.
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