저자: 미상 · 외국인
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팔란티어(PLTR)가 최근 4거래일간 28% 이상 급락. 현재 $90 부근이며 PER 477, 베타 2.8로 고평가·고변동성. 기술적 분석상 $81(주간차트 지지), $74(상승추세선·피보나치 50%) 지지 가능성 제시, 최악의 경우 200일선 근처 회귀 가능성 언급. 상단 갭 일부 미충전 상태.
다듬은 글
let's talk about paler Technology stock symbol pltr it has had a pretty significant pullback here over the last four trading sessions it's down over 28% that's a huge pullback for any stock that is just massive now one of the things that I want to go over in this video is is the technical analysis of how far this one could actually drop before it does find some support and what are the key support levels underneath where it may finally be able to attract some buyers now remember this stock is trading at a 477 price to earnings ratio that is astronomically high so you're talking about a stock that has a beta of 2.8 that is also an extremely volatile stock so it's trading at $90 right now it has traded as high as $125 just four days ago last week it shouldn't be surprising if this stock does continue to pull back because of how overvalued it is and the amount of vol ility that is inherently in this stock but what we want to do here is to find the areas of support that we can Target as potential bounce areas for the stock one of the things you don't want to do is take things too personal a lot of people will watch this video and they'll take it personal that I'm saying that I think it can still fall further to the downside and that's because that they own the stock that they have an investment in the stock and so they don't want to hear any contrary opinions that they might have it's one of those things where they go on to YouTube or something else of this same you know type of medium for confirmation bias I'm not here to confirm your bias I'm here to give you technical analysis so let's go ahead and do that now I think one of the most intriguing things about this stock is this Rising trend line right here that goes all the way back to the August lows this trend line it was following this trend line really great and then it just exploded to the upside now what makes it even more interesting is the fact that it has this parallel channel right here perfect parallel channel to the uh just above it so it broke out of the parallel Channel and it never looked back but back in January it had another significant pullback similar to like what we saw here over the last 4 days and when it pulled back it pulled back to this Rising trend line or the upper Channel band that it broke through what I'd like to see here is if this pullback continues will it find support yet again at this level that would be around $74 a share you also if it doesn't get to that level what you could end up seeing and we'll go to the weekly chart for this there seems to be some price level support here on the weekly chart so perhaps there is some support that can be had right here at the support level it still has a little ways to go that would be at $81 I don't think this is as significant as a support level as one would like to think you also have the Fibonacci retracements yes I know I'm throwing a lot out there here but I can actually draw this here there we go and this Fibonacci retracement shows that it's coming up close to that 38.2% retracement I don't know if that's something that it's going to pay much attention to but what I do find pretty fascinating is that this 50% retracement coincides with this upper Channel band quite nicely if you look at it from the daily you can still see the same thing this pullback here perfectly aligns itself with the 50% retracement on the Fibonacci so that that that 74 level that level sticks out to me as a pretty important level going forward longterm yes there's definitely some levels that we can watch for but I don't think that this is really relevant to the here and now I mean obviously there's that move down to $29 that would be a an absolute collapse for the stock I don't think that that's something that people are really weighing as a possibility right now you also have this uh blue line here that could also represent some support levels down the road but in order for those to actually hit you would need a pretty significant market pullback so these three levels here I don't really consider all that important but what I do find pretty pretty interesting and we can draw this erase some of these lines here that we're not using is this 200 day moving average this 200 day moving average it's the white line get rid of this Fibonacci as well it's this white line right here and the last time it tested it resulted in a huge balance off of it that was again the August lows that we saw where the market was just completely falling apart bounced off of that level the same day and a lot of stocks have never looked back since then for pltr it went from 21 all the way up to $125 huge rally huge moment for the stock it's also tested in the past you go back to February of 2024 that was also a huge pivotal moment for the stock got kind of close to here in the springtime of last year but didn't quite give you a test of it but throughout its history that 200 day moving average has been pretty important even when you go back to 2023 there was definitely you know some breaks above and below it but what you can kind of see right there is that there was this willingness to respect it in the sense that it it um Consolidated around the 200 day moving average quite well before It ultimately picked picked up steam and pushed higher so to to say the least pltr has a history with this 200 day moving average so that would probably be like one of the worst case scenarios that I believe would happen with pltr is if it broke through both of these Rising trend lines and came back down to this 200 day moving average again I know a lot of people aren't going to agree with that but when you are dealing with a stock of this nature that has this much volatility and you're talking about a PE ratio of 477 I know there's a A Thousand Ways to Sunday to justify that PE ratio in investors minds but the fact is it's still a very very overvalued stock by historic iCal standards so with the 2.88 uh beta on this stock it wouldn't surprise me to see much more volatility in the future as it kind kind of becomes more normalized so the last thing that I want to point out to you is this huge gap right here it has not been filled it's getting close and most of it has been filled a little bit more than half of it has been filled but this Gap Still Remains open here so if it does end up filling that Gap app will this support level that I highlighted on the weekly chart come into play you don't really see the gap on the weekly chart but you do see this support level here will that 81 level come back in that's what you want to be watching for as well if you enjoyed this video I would encourage you to like And subscribe one of the goals that I do with this channel is I I try to not sensationalize things I want to provide you with the facts the technical analysis I know people are going to disagree with me and that's fine I'm more than happy to discuss it with you in the comments I'm active in the comments so post your thoughts about pltr and I'll get back with you guys and let me know down in the comments too are you holding pltr through this pullback is that something that that that you've been doing or are you just waiting for a better opportunity to buy it thank you guys and God bless
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