저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영상은 Cantillon 효과와 통화량 증가율(2차 미분) 관점에서 인플레이션을 설명하며, 현재 M2 증가율이 마이너스로 전환되어 디스인플레이션이 진행 중이라고 주장한다. 정부 지출(IRA, CHIPS법, 그린 에너지)이 칩·EV·배터리 업종에 정책적 순풍을 주므로 해당 섹터 수혜를 예상하고, 필수소비재 등은 상대적으로 불리하다고 본다. 또한 연준의 긴축이 경기침체를 유발해 시장 전반에는 약세 요인이 될 수 있다고 언급한다. 지출 구조 변화로 금리는 3~4%대 장기 유지 가능성을 제기한다.
다듬은 글
oh huge video here on the bear thesis the inverted yield curve and the cantalone effect what does that tell us this is a big video on economic thought and theory and if you're an investor this is an important one to pay attention to just as important as it is for you to check out the flash sale on the only programs on building your wealth that I am sponsored by on the channel in fact it's the only sponsor on the channel my own programs for building your wealth as a real estate agent an entrepreneur an employee setting up side hustles or wanting to get ahead with the psychology of money stocks real estate investing you name it you have lifetime access to the course member content when I had new content and the live streams on building your wealth and answering your questions check all those out link down below and use that flash sale expiring next week now we gotta talk about the cantillon effect it's a French word it's a French effect and it's really impressive because it might blow your mind in terms of a traditional economics but what I'm going to do to start with this effect is I'm going to introduce use what Jamie dimon just said and it'll show you why this effect potentially is so important so take a listen to Jamie Diamond here for a moment on Jim Cramer we're not going to listen to all of this but let's get started nothing wrong because maybe that's too short a term maybe what we're thinking about when we talk we'll talk about the FED is not what is happening boots on the ground here yeah I think they're different I mean the FED look they have I have all the Bold respect for Jay Powell uh but you know the fact is we lost a little bit of control of inflation models didn't pick that up I've always been suspicious of models and we're using extensively I always say that you use a little bit of judgment too uh and there's been a sea change governments are borrowing a lot of money and you got to incorporate that what's taking place that means they're spending it that's inflationary wages we haven't we've seen come down but not so much oil and gas will probably be going up because you know the investment has been curtailed right uh and you know the the green environment the green economy we think it's close to four trillion dollars a year of additional spending so you're talking and the IRA act which I think has a lot of good stuff in it the infrastructure app the chicks app this is huge money and so you know me you've got to see change and I think we should all get adjusted to that and you know we'll have more normalization of interest rates and we'll be fine just remember America's most prosperous in the planet will be fine okay but I'm going to pause there because the rest is actually less interesting but let me just highlight some of the things he mentioned here and then we'll get into those models so first of all Jamie Denham is really taking this position that I don't know man even though we've gone away from sort of the monetary money printing which is the Federal Reserve basically bailing everyone out via essentially the unlimited money printing which was then distributed via stimulus checks uh unemployment pay PPP loans whatever you actually have now is Jamie Dimension look inflation reduction Act is cool and all but energy green energy is four trillion dollars of potential new inflationary impetus government spending government subsidies could actually be the next wave of stemi checks that's actually really interesting he says that because one of the things that I use to describe the chips act which is another act that was just passed which is massive 80 plus billion dollars of of uh support and subsidies and then sanctions and restrictions on chips uh specifically for chip companies and preventing China from being able to access some of our technology although they just steal it anyway those are basically massive stimulus checks for the chip makers I mean Taiwan semiconductors Intel Nvidia uh it doesn't matter whether it's the chimp maker or or the actual chip designer there is so much stimulus money going into Android G batteries EV Chargers look at the stimmy checks basically Tesla's going to be getting from hanging out with Joe Biden hey yeah we'll open up your supercharger Network in exchange for a few billies so we can make more superchargers everywhere so our Tesla owners don't get pissed off at all the congestion that we're going to create by letting other people use the Chargers Jamie Diamond in the nicest way possible is basically saying we are going from people stemi checks to corporate welfare in chips and energy and it's going to have a massive inflationary impetus that's actually by the way how China stimulates China during this recession uh or sort of this coveted pandemic did not stimulate their people with stemi checks and and cash they the people had to go save their own money it was very difficult for uh for for Chinese individuals relative to to Americans or even Europeans in regards to how much government support we were receiving on an individual basis and in China you focused on corporate welfare corporate support corporate stimulus well that that's basically what Jamie dimon is suggesting we're moving into this potentially new inflationary regime driven by government spending and how we have to ignore models traditional economic models and we're likely to see what he says is a normalization of interest rates that's a way of saying we probably won't be going back to zero percent maybe we're going to stay at a Fed funds rate of three or four percent for quite a while longer and we've got to get used to this idea and that means markets really have to adjust to higher rates for longer that sort of reiterates what I've said earlier patience patience patience it's a very interesting idea but another very interesting idea that's somewhat uh uh compounds what Jamie dimon suggests here is the following and we're gonna this is so remarkable I'm gonna read a lot of this and add commentary it's not that long it's really worth it because in my opinion it's it's just mind-blowing Insight uh into perspective on economics so if you're an econ person this is phenomenal I I mean like I usually think the flash sale or the shadowing experience you know come learn from me directly ask me questions whatever I think that's incredible and that's that's a really good deal but this effect is insane all right you ready for this so I really like this let's let's go through some of this together so the cantalian effect is a change in relative prices resulting from a change in money supply this is very that sounds complicated but it should be a very very simple basically what is being said is look inflation occurs when you change the money supply how much money supply there is we're going to keep going here in just a moment because it gets more interesting than that you might think to yourself oh well that's obvious right like yeah print more money than you get inflation right not necessarily and this is the crazy thing about what Jamie dimon says about models because the economist just talked about exactly this as well so the economist did this really really good piece the piece is uh right here and it's uh lots of investors think inflation is under control not so fast and if we go through this piece we'll actually find uh that there's a lot of talk about sort of the traditional uh idea of inflation which is that okay well if we have uh higher rates we have higher rates to fight inflation and basically the way we calculate inflation is just as a formulaic measure of what's unemployment and what are rates doing that's sort of the old school and traditional Keynesian way to look at inflation but the economist makes this really interesting argument right here that aligns with what Jamie dimon is saying and aligns with what the country on the fact is saying take a look at this tracking the money supply is deeply unfashionable so again when I read that definition of the cantal on whatever effect you might be thinking to yourself oh yeah well duh inflation goes up when the money supply goes up right but look it's actually not the traditional school of thought even The Economist reiterates that tracking the money supply is deeply unfashionable since the 80s central banks have generally focused on interest rates rather than trying to fix the amount of money in circulation money does not even feature as in in other words money is not even a part of the quote state of the art models there's that word models of inflation in other words the models of inflation that we use today don't even care about the money supply which completely ignores the gun DeLeon effect I have no idea how to say that word so I'm just going to keep going with that by the way and I'm not going to excuse myself anymore so here we go which the traditional models are interest rates the real economy which could which includes a labor and inflation expectations so in other words traditional economic models say hey we got to look at what are rates what's the economy doing and what are expectations of inflation we've heard that a million times before certainly for my channel as well hey as long as inflation expectations are anchored maybe you're okay but that's also important to make sure that we're on the path towards disinflation otherwise oh God otherwise those expectations will break and then we have to make things worse like throwing your pencil oh I hope I didn't break the tip oh it still works okay cool anyway so what do we have yet the money supply was one of the few indicators to provide an advanced warning of inflation across the oecd organization of economically developed countries a broad measure of the uh this sort of warning Supply or warning from the money supply shows that we saw a 12 increase uh in the six months after February 2020.
so in other words by about August of 2020 which was really about a year and 13 maybe a year and three months yeah about a year and three months before like getting to the end of 2021 where we really started getting nervous about inflation we actually already saw the warnings in the money supply and it was a massive red flag that big inflation was coming simply by looking at the expansion of the money supply but it's not just the expansion the money supply that's interesting we'll have to go into detail about that so let's keep going and I'll tell you you if you think it's just money supply up higher inflation that's actually wrong it does have to do with the money supply but it's actually the derivative of the money supply that matters I'll explain that in a moment I'm not a big fan of calculus either so don't worry about that but I'll explain that so let's keep going a recent study by economists at the bank of international or four International settlements finds that countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation and that incorporating money growth into inflation forecasts would have improved their accuracy so in other words maybe what we need to do when we're trying to predict inflation is actually look at the change in money supply growth rates there's the derivative and then we might know what could actually happen with inflation we're going to go back to the cantal only or whatever effect in just a moment but let me explain that so if the money supply okay so let's call it the M2 money supply is going up like this do we have inflation or not according to the what we just read from the economist well the answer actually is no now that seems weird right but that's because this is linear okay now let me change that if the money supply is growing like this do we have inflation or not the answer is yes because the derivative which is the rate of growth here is exponential here the rate of growth is constant so the growth rate is if if we're now measuring the first derivative which is like the acceleration think about it like when you hit your gas in your car if you get to one level of in of acceleration where you're adding maybe I'll just say a mile per hour per second let's just say your your actual rate of growth or your your acceleration is actually constant right the graph of your acceleration is constant it's flat you're accelerating at the same speed when you're accelerating at the same speed your potential and your money supply is rising you're not actually creating inflation according to this argument the argument is actually that when you hit the gas faster and faster and faster and you're accelerating faster and faster and faster and your derivative line is growing in other words the rate of growth is expanding so in other words if you're thinking about like company earnings think about that a little bit differently think if you're growing at 25 25 your rate of growth is constant right but if you're growing at the money supply at 25 then 35 then 45 your or maybe even 50 to go along with the sort of the more exponential curve there maybe it's even 60 right now your rate of growth has shifted from a constant to much faster what happens when you do that boom inflation that's where the inflation comes from and it's really interesting because if you look at the money supply graph you could see right here look at the constant almost constant increase of the money supply here right no inflation no inflation right here during all of this no inflation but look at when the rate of growth changed big fat rate of change right that was a red flag that was a huge warning signal that said oh the rate of change has exploded we're about to deal with a whole hell of a lot of inflation that's fascinating now let's keep going with the gun delay on the fact uh okay I feel like I'm saying it like an Italian but it's actually French uh see it came from a 1680s book which actually came before Adam Smith In The Wealth of Nations book uh and it's the uh is uh in general whatever essay on the nature of trade in gen okay whatever who cares so since the 2000s the world's largest Central Bank started to run out of policy tools like lowering interest rates and many were aggressively creating new money during each major financial crisis yeah so you have a financial crisis they just turn the money printers on the current state of the US economy is experiencing inflation expanding during the Biden administration at rapid levels resulting in the increase in price cases that occur in energy Blue Collar labor and food but not in other products and services keep in mind this article is a little bit older but it teaches us a principle that is very important today okay it's very important to internalize this one I would like personally I would write this down in your notes somewhere because it's so interesting but anyway with the creation of the US fed and the U.S exiting the gold standard the C effect has favored investors and owners over wage earners workers in the aggregate okay I started my channel around that thesis my channel exists around the belief that you will not build wealth if you are not either an investor in stocks or bonds real estate or businesses that's it you have three choices to get rich in America okay stock spawns businesses real estate if you have none of those you're probably poor and you're gonna stay poor it's just like I wish they would teach you that in fifth grade so you could like put that mindset to work earlier but you know most people don't learn that until they're like 25 or 35 or 45 and then it starts getting too late that's sad but I don't know maybe they do that by Design that's it the sea effect also had a theory in which the beneficiaries of the state creating the currency is based on the institutional setup of that state this essentially means he who is close to the king and the wealthy likely benefited from the distributional choices of the currency through the system think about all the PPP money right like the people with guess what real estate stocks and businesses got the gold anyway since the 1950s most of the world has adopted a Keynesian style of economic theory in times of financial crisis the central banks are used to increase the money supply and the large banking institutions like Jamie dimon and the capital markets distribute or lend out that money call markets and prevent Bank closures time and time it is clear the uh that in the case of the U.S capital markets many of the U.S banks large private Equity houses and Wall Street farewell after Central Bank QE I mean that's obvious so they turn on the money printer who wins its banks private equity and Wall Street whereas you individual Savers are usually the ones who deal with the jump in inflation and the loss of purchasing power that's during a QE regime right so in other words they're saying look under the Keynesian economic school of thought when you turn on the money printer to sort of minimize the effects of a recession you're really benefiting rich people more you're hurting poor people because of the inflation you're creating thanks to the derivative change or the change in the derivative of of the uh rate of growth of the money supply chanting the phrase by various heads of state of buildback better can essentially mean who gets the new money out of the crisis and where shall that Capital be allocated okay now this is interesting because look how crazy and crazy Lee this relates to what Jamie Diamond says Jamie dimon says energy like the green explosion basically chips right that's who wins that's who wins uh that's awesome all right so by analyzing the current U.S financial and economic system tech companies like Amazon which Lobby the US government and U.S airlines benefited tremendously that can be said of other governments across the world as well the pandemic was a boom for the ultra Rich according to the world economic Forum interestingly with the passive passage of the cares act PPI Ubi basically uh you know blah blah blah we basically supported businesses okay fine but the Federal Reserve now preaching about the risks of U.S income inequality and climate change which is interesting as their QE policies have clearly widened the income gap What policies can be used to mitigate the gentleon effect how are institutional investors such as Sovereign wealth funds pension funds and and basically uh institution how is Wall Street getting ready for the crash so to speak when QE goes away now what's interesting is I didn't tell you this but this was written basically at the top of the market October 2021 in other words they used the cantileon effect to predict the disaster that was about to happen in other words hey QE really great for Wall Street private equity and businesses and the rich but when that QE flip-flops be careful it's going to be hard unless you have new forms of government support now what complicates things today is we do have new forms of government support and they happen to be in energy uh in the green space as well as chips there's a reason why when I keep talking about my PP uh that is pricing power stocks when I keep talking about PP pricing power style stocks there's a reason why I think there's a massive wind at the backs of chips AV makers battery makers Etc there's a reason okay uh that's why I'm a big fan of pricing power style stocks especially based on on the handouts of government stimulus unfortunately the cantalon whatever effect now suggests that we're having a reversal of the massive inflation uh FX via looking at the M2 money supply we could see that the previous rate of growth that we've had in the M2 bunny supply has actually turned negative now that's obviously because we're going through a quantitative tightening cycle so let me explain that in relation to this effect quickly if previously and I'm gonna I'm just gonna overly simplify this okay if previously we were growing the money supply at two percent a year so we're going plus two percent plus two percent plus two percent there we go how much inflation do we get zero because the rate of change is actually constant so it's almost like inflation is a factor of the rate of change in the expansion of the money supply so when this all of a sudden became say plus 10 plus 10 right during the massive money printing we went through what did we get oh wow we got you know basically plus 10 inflation holy smokes how simple it's almost scary how simple it is but the warning signs were there and and just to to show you kind of maybe where we are with actual numbers today let me go to this piece right here uh it is uh they show us how how close we are I'm pretty sure when I get to Green over here there we go look at this the expansion of the money supply is about 17 today and consumer prices are about 14 above Trend today in other words consumer prices are almost completely caught up to to this change in rate of the expansion of the money supply okay so let's go back to where we were under this page okay so zero rate of change Zero inflation money supply is growing constantly massive increase in the money supply my M to M2 here on the left right and what happens inflation skyrockets what are we actually getting now well now we're actually in this environment where we're reducing at let's just say a constant rate okay so the money supply is declining at a constant rate so gee I wonder what's going to happen with inflation it's obvious it's gonna go down uh this is where people are like and including the bull the Bulls and the Bears are slamming their heads against tables going fed like it's it's gonna go down you're going to overdo it and the recession is going to be what the bad part is because you're going to destroy so many companies and this is where you get a lot of the Bears saying look there's no reason why companies should be coming more valuable right now especially in certain sectors which I believe are ones that don't benefit from the new sort of stemi checks that would be Staples uh grocery stores Staples McDonald's restaurants these guys in my opinion Costco's uh right the uh the uh whatever these are the ones that are probably going to end up getting screwed in the next few years and it's the ones that are getting the stemi checks while we're visiting deflation then in my opinion you're going to see the massive explosion of of value and and that's why I personally am so heavily focused right now chips EV battery makers etc etc etc Tesla whatever whatever because we're likely to see the disinflation while at the same time the people getting stimmy are these sectors so while you get disinflation and the FED likely pushing the broader Market towards recession because they're so behind they're not paying attention to the Gunther and the fact they're not paying attention to that instead they're paying attention more to the traditional Keynesian economic School thought you probably have the FED pushing us over the over the edge into uh into a sort of a darker territory which is bearish for a lot of markets broadly but in my opinion actually oddly bullish for the the ones who are surviving and getting the stimi checks and those are those here so hopefully you learned something with the guy tell it on the fact man take a shot every time I've said that in this video you'll be fine just don't drive now Fair follow-up here you says you say a constant rate of M2 increa and increase didn't lead to inflation how does a constant rate of decrease mean deflation okay let's let's clarify that because you're right when we go back to the question mark I drew here the point that really is being made is it's to say that okay if we're switching so when we inflect when we inflect there will be an impetus change and even if that impetus change is going back to zero right which is not deflation this change right here is considered disinflation right going from a higher level to a lower level that's considered disinflation going negative would be deflation right generally it's going to be technology that's going to push you into deflation which could happen but you're right let's clarify that let's not go as far as calling it deflation but the idea would be if if we're getting to this this impetus of a Contracting money supply we should be approaching zero now obviously this is a broad effect and it's hard to sort of micro down and say this is exactly what's going to happen but I would I would guess solely by looking at this effect and of course the leading indicators we're looking at whether it's corporations earnings calls whatever it may be it and and the supply of labor which has exploded we do still have crazy labor mismatches though which is a problem but anyway we would expect to see disinflation over the next few years very very rapidly and very quickly but when I say very rapidly uh that's over the span of a few years uh and so I suppose you have to zoom out to call that rapid uh but I do think that in 10 years from now we look back and we're going to go uh wow yeah money supply was expanding at a constant rate okay no surprise inflation was what stable oh you all of a sudden expanded money supply super quickly what happened oh wow you had inflation oh then you went back to a stable money supply uh and a stable rate of now Contracting money supply what happened oh wow inflation basically went back to stable right this and then this period of time right here right here I think this is what you'll end up labeling as uh uh there we go let's write this here transitory uh now again that'll be painful because it'll actually have been 2022.
to probably 2020 four or five right so this period of time will have felt very long and hellish but it could according to this principle should end up proving to be accurate and then who wins during that time well again the ones getting the stimmy checks in my opinion
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