저자: 미상 · 한국인
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시타델의 켄 그리핀이 2025년 2분기 마이크로소프트 주식을 전분기 대비 약 1636% 늘리고(약 187만주), 콜옵션 약 1억 7800만주와 풋옵션 약 700만주를 보유했다고 설명. 엔비디아 약 414%, 아마존 약 158% 증가도 언급. 월가 애널리스트 58명 중 57명이 매수 의견이며, 2025 회계연도 매출 2817억 달러(+15%), 순이익 약 1180억 달러(+16%), 시총 약 3.8조 달러, PER 33배 이상으로 고평가 우려는 있으나 AI(GPT-5, Copilot)·Azure 클라우드 성장으로 정당화될 수 있다고 봄. OpenAI 의존 리스크와 에이전틱 AI·양자컴퓨팅을 장기 성장동력으로 제시.
다듬은 글
hello. Today, in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) . Well, let's take a closer look at the very interesting moves of one building investor in particular . If you are someone who follows the major trends of the tech stock market, ah, I think today's story will be particularly informative. Let's delve deeper into the background of the massive investment in a specific AI-related company and what this implies for us .
Alright then, shall we get started in earnest? At the center of the story is the billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin . But here's the interesting part. The point is that this person has shown a somewhat cautious stance regarding the short-term impact of AI technology itself . For example, AI will soon cause a massive reduction in jobs.
I don't really agree with such predictions, or there are still some limitations to current live AI drastically increasing hedge fund investment returns . They also expressed opinions like this. But right at this point, a very interesting twist appears. Despite this cautious stance, as you know, his hedge fund, Citadel Advisors, has recently significantly increased its investments in AI .
In particular, it is said that they increased their stock holdings of one company by more than 1600% . Many of you might immediately think of Nvidia when you hear the name, but surprisingly, the protagonist is not Nvidia. This seems a bit contradictory, doesn't it? How should we interpret this move ?
yes . The main character is Microsoft. Citadel in the second quarter of 2025. So, it's the very previous quarter. I bought an additional 1.87 million shares of Microsoft stock . This is compared to the previous quarter . Ah, that's a whopping 1636% surge. So, it wasn't just a matter of simply increasing holdings; they bought so aggressively that it could be viewed as creating a new position where there was almost none before .
With this massive purchase, the value of Citadel's Microsoft stake stood at approximately $985 million as of the end of the second quarter. Phew. When converted into our currency, it has become a figure that easily exceeds 1 trillion won. Of course, it’s not like Stadel didn’t invest in other tech stocks at all.
During the same period, we also increased our stake in Nvidia by about 414%. Overall, it is true that the weighting of technology stocks has been increased, including a 158% increase in the stake in Amazon. However, if you look solely at the growth rate, the investment in Microsoft is by far the most overwhelming.
Among the top 10 stocks in the Citadel portfolio, the most notable change was Microsoft. The figure of 1600% demonstrates a powerful conviction that goes beyond simple weight adjustment . I think it can be interpreted like this. Wow, a 1600% increase is truly jaw- dropping. But I heard that this isn't just about increasing the number of shares; the investment method itself is also a bit more complex.
You're saying there's a strategy different from just accumulating stocks? As of the end of the second quarter, Citadel held call options for approximately 178 million shares of Microsoft stock. As you know, a co-option is the right to buy stocks at a specific price . It is primarily an investment strategy used when expecting mutual growth in stock prices, so Microsoft's stock price is going to rise .
You can see this as a sign that they are betting heavily on this. At the same time, they also held put options equivalent to about 7 million shares . Put options are the opposite. It is the right to sell stocks at a specific price, and it is a strategy used to hedge against the risk of a stock price decline or to generate profits even when prices fall .
Although it is small compared to the size of the call option, holding this put option means managing risk by taking into account even the possibility that the stock price might fall. This is how it is. So, it’s not simply about investing with the belief that it will definitely go up . It can be described as a highly calculated move that places solid weight on the potential for an upside while being even more thoroughly prepared for volatility .
Ah, so it's not simply pushing straight in one direction. It is a two-sided strategy that maximizes upside potential while also managing potential downside risks. However, I heard that Ken Griffin isn't the only one who has fallen for Microsoft's charms like this. Do other big players and other investors show similar movements?
That is correct. Besides Canlipin's sitas . Other major Wall Street investors aggressively bought Microsoft stock around the same time . A prime example is Millennium Management, led by Lee England . Also, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global Management significantly increased its stake in Microsoft in the second quarter .
In this way, experienced big-name investors simultaneously increase their bets on a single stock. This is by no means something to be taken lightly. In a way, their perspectives on reading the major trends in the market are converging in one place . This could be strong evidence . This move also aligns perfectly with the views of Wall Street analysts.
SMP Global Market Intelligence conducted a survey in October. The results show this very clearly . There were a total of 58 analysts analyzing Microsoft, and as many as 57 of them issued buy or strong buy opinions. There was only one person who recommended holding, and there were no recommendations to sell at all.
At this level, it is practically unanimous. It can be described as an overwhelmingly positive consensus . Wow, it seems the actual buying behavior of building investors and the analysts' analysis match almost perfectly. But here, a question just pops into my head . It means that almost all experts and key investors on Wall Street think it's a good idea.
But I also have a feeling that when everyone is positive like this, it might actually be a signal that we are hitting a peak . There are also arguments like "sell when everyone says it's good." The market has already risen by over 20% this year, so what on earth is the basis for believing there is still room for an average increase of about 21% ?
Isn't it getting too heated? Wouldn't there be concerns like this ? Ah, that is a very good point. In reality, there are always such concerns in the market . However, there is a good reason for the current optimism regarding Microsoft. This is the general consensus. The most crucial reason is, of course, AI.
The overwhelming leadership demonstrated, especially in the field of generative AI . Through its strategic partnership with OpenAI, Microsoft is effectively integrating technologies such as GPT 5, which are considered the best AI models currently available, across its vast product and service portfolio.
Shall we look at some specific examples? You know the Word we use every day. The Copilot feature that helps with writing, processes complex data analysis in Excel simply by voice commands, and whips up presentation materials in PowerPoint in a flash. This is a prime example. This isn't all. From the search engine Bing and the Windows operating system to the Azure cloud service and development tools used by developers, it is now harder to find a place that has not incorporated AI .
This goes beyond simply adding a few features . It has the potential to dramatically improve user productivity and fundamentally change the software user experience itself . This is exactly what money-making AI looks like. Such evaluations are emerging. Ah, so we are using AI best right now not as a pipe dream of the future, but in a way that immediately increases user productivity and creates actual business value .
I see . Come to think of it, this might be the very reason why Ken Griffin placed a heavy bet on Microsoft, despite being somewhat skeptical about the short-term impact of AI . Perhaps they focused on the ability to utilize AI to produce practical results . What is the other key driving force besides AI?
Another very powerful pillar is the cloud computing business, Azure. As you know, Azure holds a very solid second place in the global cloud market, following Amazon Web Services (AWS) . However, especially with the recent boom in generative AI, the demand for cloud infrastructure is increasing explosively as companies develop their own AI models or utilize models from partners like OpenAI.
Based on its close relationship with OpenAI, Microsoft is very effectively absorbing this demand by providing cloud services optimized for AI model training and inference . Many companies are choosing Azure to execute their AI strategies . This is also driving Ezer's steep rise in snowfall . In a sense, the role of a core infrastructure provider in the AI era is becoming increasingly important.
You can view it like this . So, the ability to integrate AI technology and a strong position in the cloud market are the two key growth engines. But is n't Microsoft already a mega-corporation ranking among the world's top tier in terms of market capitalization? Is it really possible to understand how a company of this size continues to show a meaningful level of growth ?
Are actual performance results sufficiently supporting these expectations? yes . It is not only possible, but is actually demonstrating it . Since the corporate base is so large, the growth rate is likely to slow down. There were many predictions like this, but the recent performance is really impressive.
Based on the most recent fiscal year ended on June 30, 2025. Microsoft's annual revenue was $281.7 billion, up 15% from the previous year . In our currency, this is an enormous scale exceeding approximately 380 trillion won . But what's even more surprising is the ranking. It increased by 16% from the previous year to $11.8 billion .
The annual net profit alone amounts to nearly 140 trillion won. The current market capitalization is $3.8 trillion. So, for a company approaching 5,000 trillion won to continue growing at an annual rate of 15 to 16% is truly an amazing feat. This can be considered clear evidence that the growth strategy centered on AI and the cloud is working very successfully .
Of course, there is some controversy regarding the valuation. It is currently called the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PR). It is exceeding 33 times, which means the stock price is being valued quite high compared to the company's current earnings . PR is the value obtained by dividing the current stock price by the earnings per share, and the higher this figure, the more expectations for future growth are reflected in the stock price .
Therefore, some are raising concerns that it might be overvalued. However, considering the strong AI momentum mentioned earlier, robust cloud growth, and the solid profitability based on this, the current premium in the market may be justified . This perspective is somewhat more dominant. Its value for future growth potential is being recognized.
You could look at it like this . The performance growth is truly amazing. It is truly surprising that a company worth over $3 trillion has a double-digit leader . Still, isn't a P/E ratio of 33 a bit burdensome, whether historically or compared to peers in the same industry ? For this high valuation to be justified, they would need to continue demonstrating performance that exceeds expectations going forward .
you're right. High valuations reflect high expectations for future performance, so they can naturally be a burden for investors. If growth slows more than expected or the competitive environment intensifies, it could trigger a stock price correction. However, considering the speed of innovation and market dominance Microsoft is currently demonstrating in the AI field, as well as the continuous expansion of its cloud business, it is highly likely that it will maintain a fairly high growth rate for the next few years.
There are many such analyses . All right. However, since the relationship with Open AI is so crucial in the AI field, I think there might be some concerns that the dependency on this aspect is becoming too high. If there is a change in the relationship with OpenAI, or if unexpected problems arise within OpenAI, wouldn't this pose a significant risk to Microsoft ?
That is an issue that has been continuously raised as one of Microsoft's core risk factors . In fact, the phenomenal success of models like Chet and GPTcyve is giving Microsoft a very strong competitive edge thanks to its exclusive partnership with OpenAI. However, at the same time, it seems Microsoft itself is well aware that excessive reliance on specific partners can be a potential vulnerability .
Therefore, Microsoft has recently been making efforts to reduce its reliance on OpenAI and expand its AI partnership ecosystem . For example, there is Claude from Entropy, who could be considered a competitor in a way. Other powerful large-scale language models like this are called LLMs. We started providing these things in detail through Microsoft Copiler Studio, a service for corporate customers .
Here, LLM refers to an artificial intelligence model that learns from vast amounts of text data to understand and generate language like a human . By offering such diverse LLM options, customers gain a wider range of choices, and Microsoft can expect the effect of diversifying the risk of becoming dependent on a specific partner .
In the long term, it is expected that the spirit of developing its own foundation model will also continue to be strengthened. Ah, rather than simply focusing on one area, we are managing risks by collaborating with various partners and expanding our own influence. So that's how it is . Then, aside from current AI integration and cloud growth, are there any other potential growth drivers that could make Microsoft's future look brighter?
If we look 5 or 10 years ahead, what technologies should we pay attention to? Ah, that is a very interesting question. I would like to highlight agentic AI as a field worth noting from a long-term perspective, rather than for short-term growth . Current AI has mostly been in a somewhat passive form, answering questions or performing requested tasks, hasn't it?
However, agentic AI refers to a more proactive AI that understands the user's goals, formulates plans on its own, and autonomously handles complex multi-step tasks. For example, just prepare for the 8th place trip next week . If you say this, the AI automatically compares flights and accommodations, finds the best combination, completes the booking, and even coordinates necessary meeting schedules—it works like that .
This type of agentic AA has the potential to fundamentally change the very way we work and obtain information. Microsoft is in a highly advantageous position to implement and disseminate such agentic AI technology in a way that actual users can truly experience, thanks to its vast software ecosystem including Windows, Office, and Teams, as well as the powerful user interface known as Copai .
Although this technology is still in its early stages, I believe it is highly likely to become a crucial driving force for Microsoft's future growth . Another long-term game changer would be the field of quantum computing . Quantum computers are next-generation computing technologies with the potential to solve ultra-difficult calculations in just a few minutes or seconds that would take years, or even millions of years, to complete with conventional computers .
This can bring innovation across various industries, including new drug development, new material discovery, financial market forecasting, and logistics optimization . In particular, it can also contribute to the development of more powerful and efficient AI models . Microsoft continues to invest significantly in this field, ranging from hardware development to the provision of quantum computing services via the cloud.
While it will still take some time until commercialization, it can be considered a very important stepping stone to lead the future computing paradigm . So, if we put all of this together, what conclusion can we reach ? There is a very clear reason why seasoned investors like Ken Griffin and Wall Street analysts are showing such strong certainty about Microsoft .
All these factors are working together to elevate Microsoft's current and future value: its powerful AI technology developed through collaboration with OpenAI, its exceptional execution in integrating this into actual products and services, the robust growth of the Azure cloud business which has established itself as a core infrastructure of the AI era, solid financial performance that continues double-digit growth despite its massive scale, and even investments in technologies with the potential to change the future, such as Agent AI and quantum computing .
This could be considered the reason why it is still regarded as an attractive investment target from a long-term perspective, despite the current stock price appearing somewhat high . yes . Today, we delved deeply into the background and reasons why Ken Griffin's Citadel increased its investment in Microsoft so explosively, from various angles .
It was a time to get a glimpse of how the rapid advancement of AI technology and the growth of the cloud market translate into tangible value for companies, as well as the future vision of building investors who are driving the market . It was a move that conveyed deep conviction in a company equipped with concrete execution capabilities, solid performance, and future growth engines, rather than simply an investment driven by trends .
Of the things we talked about today, what part was the most interesting to you ? Finally, based on today's discussion, I would like to pose a question worth considering. Microsoft is deeply integrating advanced AI like GPT 5 into software we use daily, such as Word, Excel, and email . Imagine going even further and advancing to the stage of agentic AI that autonomously handles complex tasks on behalf of the user.
If that happens, how will the very nature of the software we encounter every day fundamentally change within the next 5 or 10 years? If you deeply consider what software would look like as a partner that thinks and acts on its own, going beyond a mere tool to assist our work, and how such a change would impact our work methods and daily lives, you will gain quite an interesting insight . Tá.
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