저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AI 관련 신용부도스왑(CDS) 급등과 사모신용 청산 움직임이 시장 스트레스의 신호라고 진단. 오픈AI의 정부 대출보증 요청 논란, UBS 펀드 청산, 마진콜 증가, 고용 지표 악화(미시간 소비자 고용 기대 2008년 수준, Challenger 감원 증가, 채용공고 감소)를 근거로 든다. 소비 관련 기업들(Cava, Sweet Green, DoorDash)의 실적 둔화도 언급. 본인은 부채 없이 하우스핵 부동산 투자를 한다고 밝힘. 600선 지지 후 반등을 '플레이 가능한 바운스'로 언급하나 장기 저점매수 가능성은 경기침체 여부에 달렸다는 조건부 발언.
다듬은 글
This video is going to cover a lot on what's going on with credit default swaps and what they're signaling in private credit, especially artificial intelligence, and Microsoft is in that topic, which is scary. Then we're going to be touching on employment and a little bit of what consumer earnings calls just told us because it's really going to help us understand what the heck is going on in this environment.
So, in my opinion, buckle up. Watch the full video. It's going to be the only video I post until I get back on Monday. And folks, I think it's going to be really valuable. It'll give you a lot of color on what is actually going on in the economy and maybe where to invest. Holy smokes, folks. I really apologize.
It seems like every time I leave town for a couple days, the oopsy dupsies hits. But why today? Because there are actually reasons as to why this market is being so weird today. Liquidations, margin calls. We had it all today. It's crazy. Not me personally, but from what we're hearing out there. Let's talk about this because there are also some underlying issues going on, not just with what we're seeing in the consumer plays.
We're going to go through some earnings calls, but also what's going on. We're going to sit here. This is a little comfortable spot I found. Uh it's actually a giant bathtub. But anyway, uh we're going to break down exactly what happened, especially the spike that's going on in credit default swaps.
Uh and this is almost a little bit concerning. So, I'm going to break down exactly what's going on here. Uh, so so you know, and you can keep track of it. I think that's important as well. Uh, I'm a big fan of teaching, uh, people how to fish. And so, here's the thing. You're going to see some of this stuff circulating on social media.
What this is is somebody basically took screenshots of the Bloomberg terminal and they found a pricing for Oracle and Microsoft credit default swaps. And basically what you could see here is that Microsoft credit default swaps, this is AAA rated credit, this is really really uh like the best kind of bond you can buy.
There's a reason the spreads or premium that you pay for a corporate bond at Microsoft is very very low compared to US Treasury is because they're basically both considered too big to fail, right? Well, look at this spike that you've seen here on Microsoft just in November, which basically means the last five trading days.
Uh and if you look at Oracle, you've seen this repricing uh basically a doubling of the risk profile over the last month and it's really really remarkable because it's like oh my gosh like what does this mean? So we got to talk about that and I'm going to break down why this is happening especially the open AI drama that's going on and then we'll get into a little bit more on jobs in the economy.
I do want to mention that this morning I I like I put I'm going to start putting screenshots here because I don't think people believe it but this was literally from the alpha report today. Say we bounce at 600. I'd like a regain of 615 after the bounce. That was towards our sort of bottom line. And I also wrote, therefore, this was actually earlier, so I reversed those, but anyway, therefore, I'd be looking for stability around either 605 or 600 for a playable bounce, depending obviously on how the first portion of the day goes.
Then there should be a playable bounce, possibly even a long-term dip by opportunity. And it's remarkable because if we look at what happened with the market today, and I'm going to tell you why I think this happened, it I think a lot of it frankly has to do with debt. Like I think a lot of people are getting margin called to the you know coonas.
It's it's not good. Uh but what's happening is here let's go ahead and share this. Look at the cues right here. You can see the cues and what we got. Look at this collapse at the beginning of the day. We get the institutional sell. Uh but look at that bounce within a buck 43 of our foundation right here which is a really solid reversal you get off of roughly that 600 level.
So, pretty remarkable playable bounce, playable as a long-term dip buy, but it's only playable as a long-term dip by if you actually think that this jobs issue and this credit issue that's brewing isn't going to last. Just a quick reminder, I know you've heard the pitch for the Meet Kevin program before.
I just want you to know my goal, like my whole life, is just to make sure I provide you as much value as possible. So, still send the alpha report when I'm on vacation. and we're going to be back with really great content over the next few weeks before even Black Friday because we're releasing these amazing new lectures on tax strategies and much else.
You get all this for free as a course member. So, uh if you're a course member, mark your calendar technically for Nvidia Day. That's we're going to be when we're going to be actually releasing these lectures. So, mark your calendar for Nvidia Day. All those lectures will come out then. You'll get those totally for free.
And if you're not a member yet, I just want you to know you will get the best price by joining now. and we'll guarantee that for this meet Kevin Alpha Report membership. So join that and you get everything. We'll see you there. So what do I mean with that? Well, this is where you have to understand the underlying problems.
There are two underlying problems. Number one, let's talk about this open AI risk factor and then we'll hit jobs. Jobs, we know about this. So we've talked about this before, but anyway, the underlying issue that you have with OpenAI is the following. Remember when we had uh Sarah, the CFO of OpenAI, who used to work at Next Door, which tanked, who used to work at Square, which tanked?
Like these have been massive underperformers. So like her reputation for working at companies that can actually grow over the long term, maybe not the best. Uh but that said, Sarah basically said, not Sarah Eisen, uh said, "We're looking for loan guarantees or back stops." She essentially put this little balloon up in the sky like, "Hey, uh like if you offer it, we'll take it." to this.
Sam Oldman freaked out on X and he's like, "Bro, no. We we are not doing that." Like, "What are you talking about, Sarah?" Uh, and it was actually funny because I took his giant wall of text yesterday. You can follow me at Realme Kevin and see me post these things, but I took his giant wall of text uh and I I put it into his own software using GP GPT5.
I took this giant wall of text and I'm like, "Hey, basically, is is Sam Alman just coping?" is what I asked it. Uh, and the response was this screenshot. Yes, this reads as damage control. Alman is walking back the optics of seeking government guarantees by reframing it as a support for public infrastructure or chip independence, not a corporate subsidy.
It's a careful clarification to preserve the pro market narrative while calming bailout criticism. Okay. So, basically in English, Sam Alman's like, "Look, if we want to keep growing AI and spend a trillion dollars, you know, it would actually make our lives a lot easier if the government's like, we'll guarantee all these loans for these data centers because then the uh we can borrow more money, blow up the bubble even faster, and the taxpayer can pay for it where when it fails." The issue with that is you're basically asking the taxpayer to guarantee the most expensive part of AI and the riskiest part, the data center buildouts.
That's going to be where the real big BA bag holding is, which is why you're seeing those Oracle spreads widen so much because they take on massive debt and have massive infrastructure investments and they've crushed their cash flow to do that. That's basically where Sam Alman's like, see, look, credit default swaps going up over here.
We need the government to preemptively bail that out so we don't have spreads go up and we can keep the AI party going. In the meantime, we'll take the really high margin uh software business. Uh and then of course uh you know this was him saying like we're see we're not asking for bailout everything's fine but then of course if you actually look at the letter they sent the white house which this started circulating in a letter they sent to the white house so keep in mind the order here right Sarah asked for government back stops Sam then denies it and then openai you know the letter that the openai sent to the white house comes out uh and it says broadening coverage of the advanced manufacturing investment credit would reduce the effect of capital and actually derisk early investment In other words, it'll take care of the rich people throwing money into backing open AI.
And it'll unlock more private capital to alleviate bottlenecks and accelerate AI build in the US. They're trying to bend the knees to Trump going, "Look, man, like if you just if you just juice us with with, you know, a bailout, a pre-bailout, a guarantee, right? It's essentially a pre-bailout. Then then we'll be able to give the manufacturers the certainty they need.
Just give us loaning guarantees, bro. Come on. That'll really help us." This is leading to the stress where markets are now saying, "Wait a minute." So Sam Alman is asking for loan guarantees and then he's saying he's not, but then basically he is. This is probably a sign that other lenders are starting to get nervous about lending to AI to OpenAI or any really underlying AI business, which if other lenders are getting business or are getting nervous, maybe we should be getting nervous as well.
I hate to say it. People think like the suits and the people on Wall Street are brilliant. They're just like you and me. Like they just have more capital. And so when some of them get scared, they all get scared. Uh and so it's not also a surprise that you're seeing a liquidation of funds in private credit after the first brand's collapse.
So, this is how it all starts shaking and getting really, really nervous for people. And I kid you not, I'm going to put this up on screen because I think it's remarkable. Uh, look at this here. Let's pop this up on screen. Uh, okay. Well, this is the downside of not being in my studio, but that's okay.
You know what? While I pull this screen up, remember, uh, don't forget you can go to mekevin.com and get that alpha report every single morning. I still send it even when I'm on vacation, boys and girls. But anyway, look at this. So UBS liquidates funds affected by first brand's collapse. So now I really want you to think about what this means.
UBS basically has funds. Think of them like ETFs. They're not ETFs. They're private, but but think of them like an ETF, which an ETF is just a fund, right? Hey, we have this idea. We're going to invest in private credit, and you're going to get all these great yields. Well, all of a sudden, clients are like, "Yo, bro, um, we want our money out of these funds." And so First Brands is like, "Oh my gosh, everybody's trying to take their money out.
They're basically liquidating the funds. Let's just go ahead and close the fund because everybody's selling and uh everybody wants their money back out of the fund. So, we're just going to go ahead and liquidate funds and and we'll we'll shut this whole side of the business down. So then investors get their money back, you know, what's left of it." Uh because remember, there are a few reasons you can like close a fund.
You could close a fund because everybody's bailing and nobody wants, you know, wants to be part of it anymore because there's an underlying stress. Or you could close a fund because you're doing other projects and you don't want to manage the fund, right? This is not the latter. This is not UBS saying, "Yeah, we just don't want to do this anymore." You know, it's like we we're going to focus on a different part of our business that's booming.
That's for example me and Hellsac. Like I'm focusing on a business that's booming. It's crazy. We're we're about to cross a million dollars of inflows just in November, which is really awesome. This is UBS going, "No, it is so bad if people panicking, not wanting to put new money in, which if people don't put new money in, then what happens?
UBS ain't going anywhere with these funds. So, they're not making money anymore on these funds. You may as well just liquidate and close down." Okay. Well, what happens then? Other funds start getting stressed because they don't get the inflows or new funding. And then what happens? Well, credit starts freezing up.
when credit starts freezing up because there's a a form of a liquidity crisis going on. Well, then what happens? All of a sudden, you see credit default swap insurance rates go way up because people start taking out insurance against a default. Remember, insurance right now on $10 million of Oracle cost you about $84,000 a year.
And that's double what it cost like two months ago, which is crazy. Anyway, uh so this ripple effect of triricolor and first brands which a lot of people first said they're like oh it's idiosyncratic it's idiosyncratic it's just those companies it's just there aren't any other cockroaches now all of a sudden you're seeing oh no there are problems in a lot of different places lenders people who buy bonds are getting stressed they're not as interested in buying debt in these you know uh AI infrastructure plays or certainly private credit plays And so they're taking their money out and they're moving to less risky assets, especially when the stock market is at all-time highs.
Unfortunately, when the stock market is at all-time highs, what ends up happening? Well, you tend to get the stock market as soon as it wobbles and starts coming down triggering margin calls. And that's literally what we're seeing today. I mean, I know of people who are getting like six figure margin calls.
I'm apparently they don't listen when me Kevin's like, "Don't have debt in this freaking environment. That's why we don't have debt." You know, me personally, zero debt, no margin debt, no credit lines, no helocks, nothing. You can't call me in margin calling because there's no debt. Now, House hack is a little bit of convertible bond debt, but that's because we're diversifying away from the insanity of the euphoria and we're diversifying into American real estate.
I should show you this foreclosure that we just got our hands on. Uh, this is really cool. This this is like totally raw, non-edited footage. I should probably shouldn't do this, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Um, so this is a a foreclosure I took Jack to and uh poor little guy. I mean, look at this. It is like a full hoarder disaster where they've got the little hallways over here just to get through and survive.
Jack's never seen something like this before in his life, which is great for him to see because it's like, "Son, if you ever get mad at mommy and daddy for a day, we'll go move you into the hoarder house." So, we now have a little bit of uh maybe leverage, but look at his face over here. just like stunned.
Uh I mean I'll amplify the audio later, but he's basically like, "Man, you need to like tear this place down and and start over." I mean, look at when you go upstairs. Oh, yeah. We got mold in the bathroom over here, too. It's disgusting. But anyway, look at you go upstairs cuz this person actually is still alive.
You go over here into the master. You actually find the TVs on here and and this is how the folks watch TV. Oh, this is Jack holding the camera. So, I think I'm going to take it here. Yeah, there we go. So, I'm going to take it in. Watch how these people watch TV. That's the bed that's buried by everything.
And look at this. You have like the whole shrine set up for the TV. And there's where you could sit and watch it. Holy smokes. Anyway, Houseack's going to make a lot of money on this. But then I always think it's so funny because then people are like, "Oh, but Kevin, you know, a home buyer could have bought that place." Dude, no home buyer is buying some of the stuff we're buying.
Nobody's touching this. But like that's what we're putting our money into, right? It's not like we're putting our money into Bitcoin or or whatever. People are able to diversify to real estate with House Hack. This is not a solicitation. Go read the documents at househack.com or reinvest.co. Uh yeah, whatever.
Okay. You know about that, right? Seriously going to fix us up this place? I mean, don't you think it needs it? Or should we just rent it out the way it is? Probably needs a little love, huh? I would just destroy the entire thing and make a new one. Oh, just start over, huh? I mean, it's got a good water heater that, you know, looks good.
Get the laundry in here. I mean, I think a little bit of paint would be fine. No, but you have to remove everything. Like, what is all this? Uh, well, Amazon purchases. I just swallowed a spiderweb. So, well, now we got mold. Well, yeah, sure. Here you go. Oh, it's all right. Powder room. Please don't close door.
You will get locked inside. Sorry for the inconvenience. Call locksmith ASAP. Let me go. Why do you want to go? It's scary. You're not having fun? No. Now we know about this private credit crisis that's going on. Not just the overflow from First Brands and Triricolor, which is leading to ripples in the private credit.
You're seeing insurance premiums skyrocket for taking out insurance against these bond operations that the big infrastructure plays are doing because they're burning all their capital without this clear path to profitability. Uh the open AI sort of pre-bailout request creates even more nervousness. And all of this is happening when fund manager cash is at extremely low levels and there's not much else you can borrow.
Like people are already maxed out. People are suffering. People are maxed out on buy now pay later. People are maxed out on credit cards. All these are at all-time highs. BNPL all-time high. Leveraged ETF funds all-time high. Credit cards all-time high. Margin debt all-time high. Like we are a a an entire economic ecosystem of earnings per share, like S&P 500 earnings per share, all fueled by debt, baby.
And that's scary. Now, obviously this I mean this is one of the reasons I'm mid, you know, mid-range on the bare bull scale because it's like there's a path to getting out of this, but you can't be blindly bullish on everything. You have to be aware of the risk. And that gets to the other side of the equation, which is the data that we got this morning on jobs.
It's not great. Now, you can get this data, remember, in the Meet Kevin app totally for free. Uh if you're a course member, you get extra insight obviously through the app. Uh so download that in the app store. Uh but um but I I think it's valuable for you to have the extra explanation with us on video here.
But I do also want to just shout out if you haven't used it yet, use that extra 15% off coupon on the uh investing.com special they've got going on. If you use coupon code meet Kevin, you get an extra 15% on their discount there. Then you can really do some good analysis. But look at what's going on on uh jobs here.
This is kind of crazy. So first, this is from the University of Michigan sentiment survey. The survey itself is extremely volatile. Oh, I should actually edit that part. It's extremely volatile. Uh but uh the less volatile portion is the blue line shown below. There we go. I should clarify that. This is why I think it's important we go through this stuff with video.
But anyway, it's a nice reference for you to look at in the future if you want to look it up. So look at this. This blue line is the consumer expectation on the labor market. Now, even though this one's volatile, it's nowhere near, I'll say that, nowhere near as volatile as sentiment, right? This is different than sentiment.
We already know sentiment came in trash, but this is nowhere near as volatile as sentiment. And it usually leads GDP by 6 months. Frankly, the reason it probably leads by that much is because GDP is just like such a lagging indicator. And it's usually wrong. Like, usually really high GDP estimates end up just getting revised rapidly down.
It's not great. But anyway, so we're nowhere near as volatile on sentiment uh uh for for consumer expectations on the labor market, and it's absolutely falling off a cliff, which isn't great. We're at like 2008 lows on expectations for labor. And I'm seeing this. I mean, I'm talking even here at where where I am, which is a wedding.
I'm talking to people who work from for like, you know, Microsoft divisions. No names to be named here other than Microsoft, but people are like, "Dude, you know, we've been working here 10, 11, 12 years, and we're nervous that we're suddenly going to get laid off." There is true fear in the office that today may be our last day where we open up our laptop, it just doesn't work anymore.
Like there is real layoff here. So some of that fear could be coming through here. But it's not just that. And I don't even have this listed right here on on today's page, but it's also that ADP report. Yeah, look, we cheered that we went on a three-month moving average. We moved up to 43,000. That's great, you know, uh uh or sorry, on on the one month we're at 42,000.
And the three-month moving average is positive. Fine. It's still indistinguishable from zero. We think the break even rate somewhere between zero and 20. So 40 is above the break even rate which is great. Uh you know because immigration has come down so much. That's what the break even rate adjusts for which is probably somewhere between zero as Powell sees it or as other people at the Fed like Lorie Logan think it's like 20K somewhere in there is probably right.
I think they're probably right about. Now, something else that really nobody is talking about on social media either that I want to amplify, which we've talked about on the channel before, but you may have already forgotten, is that even the ADP report, which was really the only bullish catalyst we had for jobs, told us, hey, forward warnings for layoffs or at the highest level that we have seen since 2008.
We are not on a good trend for layoffs coming, which is bad because remember the one thing preventing the normalization of the beaverage curve, big red flag if that normalizes because it basically means unemployment is going to skyrocket is layoffs. And if plans are now accelerating, it's a problem.
Shout out, by the way, to Cancun, not for turning my internet off, which really, well, I'm a stoic. I don't get upset. Well, I had to move because apparently the internet went out. That's one of the downsides of travel. But then again, we'll get the video up eventually. Uh, so here's the thing. The ADP warning that we last got was that in California, Oregon, and Washington were basically the only states we got jobs.
that west coast. That's probably why because of AI tech hiring. So if you remove that one toothpick that's holding up that AI tech hiring cuz you're still hiring AI developers, right? You probably have no jobs on the ADP report, which was an issue I flagged in the ADP report a few days ago when we covered it.
I'm like, man, you had I remember saying it wasn't to be offensive. It's just like, you know me, I'm in the middle, so I kind of make fun of everything. I'm like, the MAGAS better be thankful for the libtards for the leftover hiring cuz it's the only toothpick holding up the economy right now. So then you get the Revolio Labs jobs report yesterday which revises down jobs from 60K to 33K and it shows that October is actually at 9,000.
All of those not great signals for the labor market. But on top of that, we also know that the layoff level today matches the layoff level on challenger job cuts reports that we lost saw in 2009. The problem with that chart or the problem with that understanding is in 2009 when we saw those massive layoffs, we already had our shock event.
We already had our Lehman Brothers collapse. We already had all the poopy dupy in front of us or or behind us. And then it was just about recovery. So then if you look at like Indeed job postings which today are declining to levels that we haven't seen uh since uh 2021. You could see this right here going back.
The difference is job postings were on this massive uptrend here. Now we're on this slow bleed trajectory. Right? That's really what this is is a slow bleed. The economy is basically being sliced down to hell slowly. So now let's understand what restaurant earnings tell us just briefly. Okay, Cabava which was this big meme stock.
People are like Kevin should I buy this? I'm like I don't know man. The reason people are so excited is because they keep adding stores. Comp sales growth is you know 20%. But that's because it's a 2011 business. It's a newer business relative to to you know restaurants. And so what do we have now? Complete reversal.
24 stocks closed 18 opened which means you net lost six stores. transactions were growing in the mid20s. Now they're growing at like 2%. The entire restaurant industry has lost 7% of transaction volume since 2019. That's directly from the Cava earnings call. The macro environment is what they're blaming and they're like, you know, we're in a heavy discounting environment, but we're not going to uh get into the heavy discounting to combat any cyclical headwinds because, you know, we don't do that.
That's just high ego. That's just a matter of time before they have to cut prices. It's not in our value proposition. You know, we're not like McDonald's is basically what they're saying. They're trying to slam these other companies when the reality is that's a big mistake. You should be adjusting and taking care of your consumer.
On fairness, they're talking about unlike Chipotle, actually having your bowl of food full. I thought that was an indirect slam at Chipotle. That was actually kind of entertaining to see in an earnings call. But anyway, at Sweet Green, they're like, "Yeah, dude. You know, we saw a slight pickup in July after Liberation.
However, in August, we saw 200 basis points of declines. another 200 basis points of declines in September and now we're holding flat compared to September, but on an annual basis we're running in the low negative doubledigit territory right now. Dinner is mostly slowing down and the younger consumer specifically in LA, the 25 to 35year-old consumer, oopsy dupsies.
Now, Dash is falling, not necessarily because of the restaurant issue because Dash numbers are up, but Dash is falling because they're like, "Yeah, we're going to go invest a bunch of money so we can keep the growth going." And people today are punishing that. They're like, "Oh, you guys are going to invest.
So, earnings per share are going to be down. Okay, sell." I mean, they got a two peg, so I think, you know, they're probably relatively where they should be as long as we don't go into a recession. But anyway, this gives you a breakdown of everything that's going on. Liquidity stress, people are maxed out on money.
It's hard to keep going up when you're out of money. Okay, people are fully leveraged. You're seeing the margin calls. You're seeing the credit stress. You're seeing the underlying consumer stress. And unless we get a turnaround in jobs here, which could happen, that's kind of why I say we're on this pendulum.
You know, it's teeter totter. Are we going to soft land? To soft land, we need jobs up. If we don't get jobs up, we're done. Now, mind you, this is exactly why we have zero debt with House Hack. We are, we think, diversifying into a portion of the economy that has actually been kind of battered up since 2022.
Like we think real estate has massive opportunities because as the economy falters, rates come down, the ability to leverage up the portfolio skyrockets. And I mean, let's say rates drop to zero. Holy smokes, we can explode this to like a half a billion dollar portfolio. We're jumping up and down at House AG.
Uh but we also on the flip side we're like but a recession would also be bad because it would limit the potential that we could sell our SAS biz right because obviously if we're in the biggest bull market ever and it keeps going driven by AI we could sell our AI product which we're just now getting ready to launch.
So like we're okay either way. We have benefits and wins either way, but there are reasons to also cheer just people not going through the suffering of a crash.
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