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Hello. This is an analysis of institutional stocks. I will give you a quick update after a long time . If I could, I would have given you this much profit. I wanted to broadcast every day while acting all high and mighty, but I held back and expect to see two turning points . First, U.S. semiconductor companies are scheduled to announce their earnings starting in mid-July .
Second, the technical chart, known as the Relative Sentiment Index (RSI), is showing some signals of a peak. Since it displays a repeating pattern, there is an important point to note, which is why I am providing this update to you . I think I can get this class if I just try a little harder . I will give it a try .
There may be various ways we try to change this boring process of life, but ultimately, there have been many cases where the results were poor when investing in leverage or high-volatility products. Now, I believe that to change these things effectively, one must clearly have a perspective and insight that sets them apart from others.
Uh, first of all, from a technical perspective, in early April, the indices plummeted due to US tariffs, and especially in the case of triple- leveraged semiconductor products like the one mentioned, which already have high volatility, they showed a drop of over 75% due to the specific characteristics of triple leverage .
So, it dropped quite a bit, but anyway, after going through a lot of processes, it has now risen to $27. I don't know for sure, but I can confidently say that everyone who invested with me has probably made a profit. However, if you were to say you did it alone, well, you know I have seen so many people over the past 13 years.
If it goes up like this, you buy here, average down, and then you start thinking about it. Then, I sold other stocks and came into this one, but I ended up not being able to sell it and got stuck with it until the end. I held onto it with the mindset of holding it for 10 years, and now I am selling it at this point .
You'll say it came out well, then go in once or twice, sell here and buy here, and repeat this process. They're all similar. There was a time when such talk always emerged—like it would be trophied or trading would be suspended—and it even topped the keyword charts . However, to weather this part well, you need standards and principles for your investments .
Especially regarding products like leverage. I shared that with you all, and during the process of discussing various methods, what I mentioned was precisely this standard deviation trading. Personally, I did it a little faster than you all . First, regarding the standard deviation, we distinguish between 1 standard deviation and 2 standard deviations.
While the 1 standard deviation range likely falls within the highest probability range, the idea was to buy when the price drops further than the deepest point within the 2 standard deviation range, which is twice the 1 standard deviation . So, well, there are day trading and various other methods, but currently, I have a 48% return.
For those who followed along late after seeing the cold, even those who were over 130% or 150% were providing verification. Anyway, I’m thinking that even if I had just bought it at $14, it’s $27 now, so I would have made over 100% . Please take a look. Since this is a product that invests three times the underlying asset called the source, the flow of semiconductors itself plays the most important role.
I am making sure to use AMD. Stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, TXN, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, and Applied Materials are included, and the reason I am so obsessed with fundamentals is ultimately this upside potential. It was an insight into how much better the potential rate of return is viewed, and if you look at it, nothing is missing.
I actually mentioned two reasons why US Big Tech is falling: whether it is the macroeconomic environment or the poor performance of semiconductors. It is evident here that the semiconductor sector is indeed not performing well, and the EPS chart, which I have frequently shown you, has been continuously improving.
However, the reason stock prices fell is that, from a macroeconomic perspective, due to Trump's tariff issues, prices are expected to rise, the economy is likely to worsen, and employment is likely to decrease . Because of these problems, the pace of interest rate cuts could actually be slowed down.
And it seems like prices could go up . Since the stock price fell due to these points, there is no way it couldn't be resolved, is there? Since they are n't going to impose tariffs of 100% or 50% forever, there was a basis to believe that if this issue is resolved, it could rise even higher. In fact, among the charts I have frequently shown you, regarding Applied Materials, I provided the insight that Hanmi Semiconductor would surge whenever Hynix rose due to the joint venture between Hynix and Hanmi Semiconductor known as the TC Bonder.
The point is that although Applied Materials plays the role of a traditional semiconductor manufacturer, there was a point where its stock price continued to rise after it acquired and merged with Nash, a Dutch company capable of performing the TC Bonder role . Then, Broadcom continues to rise. The point that it is safe to invest for the long term was that traditional semiconductor industries, such as Texas Instruments, are all rising together, so the probability of a sudden collapse is actually very low .
Now, however, since it involves leverage and significant volatility, the area that requires careful consideration is precisely beta. Since Beta basically means that when SP 500 moves by 1, it moves six times, it actually moves a tremendous amount. Therefore, if you go all-in or buy when it drops without any basis, your life could become difficult.
That is exactly how a soft life can go into hard mode . The fluctuation range of the source is also basically very large. And basically, since the fluctuation range over one year is 25%, it means that the fluctuation range of the source, and even the base rate, is very large. It is a point worth examining, and investing three times the daily volatility is exactly what a leveraged product is.
If you invest in electricity mindlessly, the really tough part is that it drops to just $7 or $8 . But generally speaking, I often explain compound interest, and while you can sufficiently withstand ups and downs in normal situations, in the case of 3x leverage, it is too good when it goes up by 30% .
If 30% is removed from the top, it immediately becomes 9.1.1. If it drops by 30% even once—that is, based on a 10% drop standard—it dropped by 30% because of leverage. Then it becomes 6.37. It means that it might take a considerable amount of time to recover . In any case, it is based on the fundamental premise of investing in the highly volatile semiconductor sector .
Since there are such problems in rises and falls, what should we do? The point is to actually use the standard deviation . I will summarize the leverage one more time . I don't think I've ever seen an ETF with a strong underlying index get crushed in the ETF market in over 10 years . I think there isn't a single area in this semiconductor industry that is missing, from the microphone I'm recording with right now, to the rice cooker I'll be eating soon, to the pen I'm holding, and the mouse .
So, the point was that it is an industry that will never fail. So, basically to eliminate single-stock risk, things like TSLL, Nvidia, or Apple x2... hmm, Apple, and then Apple x2 too? X? These double-value products are often traded only for short-term gains . In the long term, the risk associated with these individual stocks is significant, so frankly, we don't know how things will turn out.
Even the successful Tesla could collapse in an instant . Apple is the same as Amazon. Therefore, we need to clearly manage the risks regarding the direction. While holding for the long term is good, the most important point was establishing standards and principles to make confident investments . So, the idea I gave you all was standard deviation trading.
The price we started with, the one you and I started together, was $37. But since it is currently at $27, the price has dropped. Honestly, it doesn't make sense to say that there is a 100% profit right now, but the point is that I only buy when it has fallen based on the standard deviation . So, originally I used to buy at 2 standard deviations, but recently I have been providing the standard deviation ranges to our members every day, set to 10% and 14% .
The point is that there needs to be a standard for the decline. Actually, regarding what is called the standard deviation, right now, uh, July—when is this? As of July 7th, it is 8.1. It is 1. So, it means that within the 68% probability of moving up or down from the center with a 68% probability of the highest normal distribution, it moved by +8% and -8%.
So, simply put, the business distribution showing the highest probability of daily volatility within this is 8.1%. If it drops by more than 1% above 8.1%, it implies that buying would be more likely to pay off because it has fallen more than the average; but shouldn't you invest more stably the larger your capital is ?
So, doubling this range is the standard deviation, and with a 95% probability, it is actually 16.2%. So, if the 16.2% drops by 2% in a day, buying would mean reaching the lowest point, so even from our perspective. Oh, when it dropped this much, there were many technical rebound zones, you know. It would be good to judge it this way, but looking at the recent trends, it seems very unlikely that it will drop by 16% .
But as always, shocks like this tend to come without warning . So, I place a spell every day and wait for it to drop . Now, as I mentioned at the beginning, this is a zone where technical volatility in the semiconductor industry could increase. When I actually drew a line like this, I saw a section where it was pulling back.
I used to do a lot of technical charting back when I was a beginner . But you aren't doing well right now, and you should see this falling behind as an opportunity; if you are scared of this, you are still a beginner . And if you look at the chart with 60 monthly candles from when the soothing wave came out until when the source wave came out, it had never collapsed before, but it touched it at this time.
So, actually, it was a section with very high reliability, and unbelievably, when was this? I crossed out April, so oh, it was April 11th. April 11th was truly a historic low point. It started to rebound from this point. It rebounded like crazy . Anyway, looking at this period, there are several points indicating that it is a zone where technical volatility can increase.
Now, if you look closely, right here below, I have marked the RSI. RSI stands for Relative Psychological Index. How much do people want to buy it? The point is that the fact that people are flocking to buy it means it is overvalued compared to its fundamental value, so you should be careful. There are countless cases where people manage to break through this and climb up .
However, there need to be certain events at this time, and currently, an earnings announcement is scheduled, which is called a pack set. There is a tool called FactSet, and if you look at it, it shows how earnings are projected using very professional data; there are actually more points predicting that they will not be good.
So, overheating is the point where sentiment is overheated but earnings are somewhat uncertain; stock prices have risen significantly, and the sentiment index has crossed the red line, which is the overheated zone. The point is that there were points of sharp decline within this overheated zone . So please don't say, "Shouldn't you sell if there is a sharp drop?" The point is that you should buy when the sharp decline exceeds a certain point.
So, if you were trading alone, it would n't matter if you sold now. However, since you are trading together, I suggest buying more when prices are lower, or for those who missed out because prices have only been rising, this could be an opportunity . To summarize . One of the things individual investors are worst at when investing is taking small profits when the market goes up and holding on until the very end when it goes down, spouting nonsense about passing it down to their next child .
Honestly, if my money is invested, my life is at stake, and the importance of this is significant, there are several conditions regarding the return. First of all, your mindset is fundamentally very important. If my assets are 10 million won, and I try to diversify by putting in 5 million won once and then another 5 million won, that's basically the end of it.
We are unable to respond in any way. I just think that wasn't as good as Annan's. So, they used up other assets, loans, and even their parents' funds, and eventually, they are selling it here. Anyway, looking at it that way, the point is that you must unconditionally invest your spare funds in a good place .
I do n't think there are actually many people who doubt semiconductors, but since stock prices fluctuate significantly, there is a possibility that they could fall in some areas. However, we need to examine in what sense this is falling or if there is a rebound point. If the issue of making a living is right in front of us, then naturally, dividend stocks would be the better choice.
Basically, the concept is a dividend stock, but. However, the point is that if the market improves and livelihoods gradually get better, investing in the future offers much better growth potential. Therefore, you need to have a point where you can view the decline as an opportunity . When I say that you need to combine numerical portfolios, my main assets are like Sude, JP, JPQQ, or, in Korea, like Comey Ace, US Dividend Covered Call, Active Quality .
Oh, sorry. Ace US Odds Quality Covered Call Active... it's hard to even hear the name. what? Anyway, you need to do these things while maintaining your main portfolio with this kind of combination . So, the point is that I feel much more at ease when it comes to portfolio combinations . It’s okay to listen to it as a dividend.
So anyway, the most important point is that you should eat a lot when it goes up, but you should eat less when it goes up . Personally, I am looking at the speed level at $36 first, and then $70 . Of course, I could sell in the middle, but I think I need to set my goals high to realize that I still have a long way to go.
With a humble mindset. I really don't say that I condemn the role of early marriage now . I am a department store too, everyone. But if you look at it, I actually sold it once. It was right when I sold the Tamdang. Even now, if I search for "Tammidang" in the mainstream, almost 100 results will come up.
It is a stock we have been together with for a whole year. Four months ago, as many as 50,000 people were with me; since it is currently July, that would be around March or April, wouldn't it? It was from this point that it started to plummet. There are actually very few instances of selling. I'm just holding it.
Then everything will turn out well . I know you have been leaving a lot of good comments lately, and if you join me, there will be a difference in timing . I am not a god, so I cannot pinpoint the exact timing, but I provide as much supporting data as possible so that you can join me with good insights at the bottom.
So, if you like the supporting materials, you can come in together . hmm. Please take note of this. Let me summarize. Since it is three times the daily investment return, some principles are absolutely necessary. A bear market is actually an opportunity. If you start to get afraid of falling behind, it means you still have a long way to go and a lot to learn .
So, while it is important to buy when the market is in fear, the idea of selling when it is in fear—I am telling you this very simply to avoid trial and error—means that it is built upon a great deal of deep expertise . There is the point that it won't fail. But you shouldn't do too much with these leveraged products.
I really want to bet my life on the very edge of a cliff . If you say it is not a process of contemplating whether or not to jump off a bridge over the Han River, it is very difficult to recover if you take it 100%. So, I'm aiming for about 3,000. Instead, with a 3x average and 6x beta like this, shouldn't you expect much higher returns than SP ?
Don't think of it as eating a small amount . There is no money you can afford to lose, but even if you do lose it, the damage will be less if you do so smartly. And if you invest in things like TMF together, they act as a hedge where the TMF drops when the market rises, and drops when the TMF rises; consequently, there is definitely a time when both rise together.
Give the interest rate a try. By the time you are with Team Narang, it is already too late. Preparing in advance would also be an important point . As for the inside. I could talk about this all night long, but if you think I've explained it well and you still have it, I think you can just continue using it with me.
How much more could it possibly drop? So, I provide this exclusively for membership members, for joint investment, every day between 8 and 9. So you just need to place a buy order for this, but since there are many people who want to do TIMP and TQ together, TQ is just rising every day for now. Now that you have taken a look and I have given you a hint, I hope you put in a lot of effort and share with me in the cafe so that you can also make a profit.
I have talked a lot about ETFs in the monthly lectures as well, so if anyone wants to learn about ETFs properly from the beginning, please make sure to check out the link in the pinned comment. Thank you.
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