저자: Paul · 외국인
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TSLA와 BABA 하락을 계기로 VZ, TSLA, BABA를 8가지 기준으로 분석. VZ는 높은 부채(FCF 대비 31배)와 지속 불가능한 배당(7.1%)으로 회피. TSLA는 PS 9.6배, 과도한 밸류에이션으로 적정가 약 63달러 추정하며 고평가 판단. BABA는 낮은 부채·성장 지속을 근거로 장기 매수 매력을 언급하고, 52주 저점 지지선(58달러) 기술적 분석과 풋 매도 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
three stocks 52-week lows Verizon Tesla Alibaba Alibaba was down at one point today almost 19 last time I saw Tesla's down at one point to 204 52-week low and Verizon I don't look at Verizon anymore we looked at Verizon last year the thing I didn't like about it was the debt so let's check it out now and see if anything's changed right Moe yes Papa's down now 14.67 it's back baby it is coming back all right so Verizon's down three and a half percent today 52 week high 55 51 cents 35 dollars and tens the low and it's currently at 35.80 okay so sometime today probably today it was there dividend yield in the last 12 months was 7.1 percent this is unsustainable I don't understand this wow 10.63 billion in dividends paid free cash flow last year was 10.1 last five years free cash flow of 7.53 that's my first alarming case huh yeah I mean it sounds like they had a boom and free cash flow in 2019 is that what it was I mean it went from a 12 billion to 16 and a half billion to 21.
it's a negative free cash flow in 2021 and that's not sustainable bottom line that's not sustainable okay so let's look at the eight pillars here but we are seeing that in this space with at T they're playing they're paying a dividend that is not necessarily sustainable and another thing in this sector really high debt guys look at this one of the things that I talk about a lot is debt and with companies debt works the exact same way as it does for you as an individual the more debt a company has when times get tough it's going to be harder to pay that look at this debt 31 times their five-year average free cash flow we want that number under five for our eight pillar process all right so if you're new to the channel we want to look at manageable debt and the number I start with is five times the average free cash flow over the last five years this is 31 times this is six times higher than what we like okay um variable return very low return on invested capital Revenue growth big drop in in net income and a drop in free cash flow now the ratios are pretty solid now one thing I don't like the five-year PE is much lower than the five-year price of free cash flow now guys a lot of people would sit there and say do more digging I'm looking at this and I'm like I'm out why these things just all don't make sense to me and this is the Clincher and then a dividend deal that isn't supported by free cash flow why even look further there's so many other options of course and if we want to even start getting into digging a little bit deeper I mean they just reported their earnings people are moving away from their cell phone plans it seems a t gained like 300 000 plus post paid subscribers they've lost have they they were losing yeah they lost they net gained but overall they had massive amount of upflux so keep in mind what I just said I said are they I had no idea yeah this is all I need to look at for me to go further because I look at saying even if all the news is Rosie here am I still okay with this I don't think so analyst estimate let's just go to analyst estimates and see and pull up the balance sheet and just show real oh my God look at this growth no no wasting look at this growth this year if I could do 5.34 earnings in December of 2026 555.
stay the same that's not even that's that's literally like what is that growth a percent or two yeah it's four percent over five years so less than a percent a year Revenue growth non-existent so I'm looking at going oh why bother why bother so you don't understand something okay and you're trying to force it that's basically what you would be doing right now if I wanted to if I wanted to buy the company that would be the point of digging deeper yeah and to me there's tons of you if you're gonna do it there's 10 000 companies go find another one all right stock number two Tesla all right guys Tesla's a doozy so Tesla's down today three percent six dollars and forty three cents to 208 it was as low as 204 today the 52-week low shows 198.
um all right that's pretty low guys considering the highest 415 that's pretty tough so the stock is down over about 50 as of this very second now I have stocks that are down a lot absolutely but there's a difference between a stock being down because it's massively overpriced and unjustifiable with more losses to come like Tesla in my opinion versus the company that's selling cheaper and I can buy more shares Tesla's a very hard situation why look at their price of sales ratio 9.6 the average car company is 0.5 to 1.
the next comment out there is Paul it's not a car company okay when the revenue is made up of more things that are not part of cars I will agree with you also Elon Musk did say we are a car company but he doesn't know what he's talking about that's true so I don't know what to say guys besides a company that a car company that makes nine and a half billion any company that makes nine and a half billion even if it's gonna grow 20 a year how do you justify this market cap today to still have meat on the bone right so let's go to analyst estimates listen to eight pillars first sorry all right well lower return invested Capital High PE high price to free cash flow dilution and debt well let's talk about the dilution that's they're going to get rid of that pretty soon oh my God he's buying back shares which is literally the worst idea in the world when a company buys bet buys back its own expensive shares that's no different than buying an overpriced company outside people just think oh they're buying back their shares that's great it's a manipulation that's all it is it's a terrible idea when I saw it the other day I literally went like this the sign of the times so let's go to analyst estimates I mean look at this they're supposed to Triple their profit according to analysts in the next five years revenue is going to Triple as well that's all great news so let's do a five-year analysis assuming those exact same things okay stock analyzer tool I'm going to change it from 10 to 5 year analysis I'm just going to do what the analysts are saying tripling Revenue in five years is three to the point two 24 25 girl so I'm gonna go 20 25 and 30.
profit margin I'm going to keep with 14 I'm gonna go with 12 14 and 16. free cash flow the same thing PE now guys let's go 25 30 and 35. that is obscene the larger and larger company gets the lower the PE should be if you think Tesla is still a small company what are you smoking it's a 700 billion dollar market cap 650 billion dollar market cap it does 85 billion in revenue or something crazy how was that a small company all right desired annual return 12 13 15.
it is a small company 14. it is a small company when they're going to have a market cap uh the size of apple and Saudi aramco combined yes so that is a true statement based on what they just said that's from Elon Musk so I did 12 14 and 16 on my desired returns why because you have to have margin of safety and if you can invest in a long-term ETF for nine or ten percent return in order to buy an individual stock with margin of safety gotta pick a higher number and the higher your assumptions the less likely it would occur the more margin of safety I want hit the analyze button alright guys if you believe analyst estimates you have to pay 147.
based on my assumptions above if you believe the assumptions are better than analyst estimates 215 is a buy today so for those of you at 415 saying it was obvious that's awkward and if you believe low at low assumptions of 20 growth and 14 margin it still has to drop in half guys it's just math so I put in my own assumptions here just one column and I did realistic numbers more than I mean I don't think that even your low side I don't think they're very realistic um I did 15 Revenue growth 13 profit margin 20 p e 15 return I'm getting 63 okay by the way what's my um what's my watch list 50.
it's on my watch list of sixty dollars this doesn't mean I'm buying it at 60. it means go do more research make sure you like it and sell puts on it if you want so if you want to sell puts on it okay go ahead mine's at 175 for the purpose of going maybe six to eight months out and selling put somewhere around this 63 range oh I don't think you'd even do that I don't think it's worth the squeeze the volatility might all right we'll see so let's say you like the stock at the 150 price or whatever it was that I said what was the price in the middle 150.
if you want to go out to January of 2023 and sell a 150 put actually it's not bad six bucks so what this means guys is somebody will pay you six dollars to give the option of forcing you to buy the stock at 150. if you like it at 150 they're going to pay you one six dollars for 150 that's a four percent return six dollars divided by 150 and you only have to wait 90 days for that so it's essentially like making 16 of your money and you get the stock at 150 if it falls anywhere below 150 you still keep the six bucks but now you get the stock at 150.
now here's where everybody goes wrong you only do this if you absolutely want the stock at 150 no matter what the market's at if it falls to 100 your comments should be that's okay I won at 150. I was gonna buy it at 150 anyhow so I'm okay with that that's a very difficult thing to do emotionally yeah because the for the stock price gets to 100 and you say I'm already 50 underwater correct when the actuality is you would have bought it at 150 no matter what so if it was November 20th hit 150 you were buying anyhow you're gonna executed your own Market order so this is a great way to make some money while waiting now for me I'm not doing it at 150.
no chance stock number three Alibaba Alibaba this bad boy is down big today we're gonna do some uh mo why don't you showing my charts what you're saying what you said a while back about Alibaba so current price on Alibaba is 62 and I have been saying for a very long time this is going to get to 58 I didn't say this could get to 58 I said this will get to 58 why because the Market's overpriced and as the market comes down none of these stocks are are hidden from any of this volatility this right here is your 58 level there's the lowest it's ever been they ipo'd back here lowest is like 58 maybe 57 and change and it is now today right at that price so 5802 is the low today there you go and 58 was that Cameron MO told me 58 bucks I was like and this was a long time ago it was a long time ago but I said it's gonna happen now I I'm not gonna sit there when he says it's going to happen take it as gold yeah because he once guessed the day of like a month of a stock market crash and I nailed it yeah because Mo doesn't know anything else I'm as good as made off so the point is though this is where we use charts I like the fact he's like Paul this is a support level right here I'm just looking at the support level saying and it falls below that support level watch out my joke today instead it's going to zero yeah level zero so we don't know what's gonna happen but that's how we look at this company so eight pillars so apart from increasing shares outstanding and a temporary decrease in net income it's all check marks here okay very low debt this is a big factor I love about the company now why is it down so much to say all Chinese companies are down today because the Prime Minister whoever it is she got his third term and he kicked out a few old guys who are all about economic growth supposedly and brought in some young guys who are more about ideology guys I get that and it is scary but the fear is that people have that I'm hearing about for China are the fears that it would have had two three four five six seven years ago it's just now the stock is down they perpetuate the story with the Perpetual to stop going down with the story does that mean it's gonna go up from here no it means that if it's an opportunity in the short run to buy shares if you believe in the story and believe in Alibaba I look at the income statement and I sit there and say okay is there still growth there is still growth then I look at the analysts I'm not looking at their buy ratings or sell ratings their endless expectations of Revenue 866 billion in their currency to 1.3 in the next five six years earnings per share 60 80 increase okay I look at this going does that sound if I were to buy this company in full and the stock would be taken away it'd only be a private Enterprise and this happened would I make good money and remember this is just one stock if you're given a hundred stocks like this in this situation would you buy all 100 of them that's the big key this is not just about one single one single stock to your portfolio correct we want to sit there we're part of a process just like Bryce Harper just made the world he doesn't hit a home run he doesn't get on base every sometime he goes to bad but if he gets on there 300 or 400 basis points every single time he'll end up in the Hall of Fame and that's what he does and that's the key so let's go to Alibaba let's do our stock analyzer tool here and then put it look at the puts so endless estimates for Revenue growth are high low high single digits low double digits so I'm going to put in 4 7 and 10.
profit margin way lower this year I'm gonna go 13 16 and 19. no I'm sorry 13 18 and 23. free cash flow I'm gonna do the exact same thing PE and guys I do this different every single time but the point is it still shows me a certain response PE guys a PE is 30. I'm gonna go even lower than that I'm gonna go 13 15 17 because it's still part of the largest growing middle class in the world and the fastest growing economy in size China's economy grew 3.9 percent last quarter which is slow if we were put a 3.9 the U.S the stock market would probably go to a billion and I I can see a lot of people saying well what about the covet zero policy and this and that guys this is all just short-term stuff I mean that's exactly stuff is going to happen over the next decade between China the United States Taiwan imagine where that's going to go yeah it's not about that now my desired return of 12 14 16.
guys I want to make note this isn't like Tesla where I put in unreasonable high it's not unreasonable to see 10 growth out of a company that's largest that's present is in the country that's growing the fastest this is not unreasonable unreasonable hit the analyze button the stock is currently at 62 dollars a share 75 175 120.
okay let's go look at the puts yeah I mean I'm looking at the 50 puts here in for January I'm looking at November okay let's go to November 18th yeah November 18th 50 put gives you a dollar 25. that is 2.5 return for one not even one month 26 days that's an annualized 30-some percent return yep it's pretty good money guys so if you want the stock at 50 and you really want the stock at 50.
to wait 26 days you can be paid yeah that's incredible that's a lot of money that's what happens with puts when there's big drops you can sell puts and that volatility is going to really help you when there's big jumps you can sell calls because that they feel like it's going to be more likely to happen that's the big key for this exactly guys need you to do one thing here this is especially important you need to watch this next video by about buying stocks at cheaper prices thank you very much for your time there are over 10 000 stocks out there that you can choose from if you've listened to our channel before I talk about how you only need 30 or 40 really good ones that's 0.3 or 0.4 percent of them and be good that will get outside returns so the next question is Paul how do I find them
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