저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed가 금리 인상을 쉬었지만 향후 추가 인상 신호를 줘 시장은 혼재된 상황이라는 결론. 금리 정책: Fed가 이번 회의에서 동결했으나 추가 인상 가능성을 시사한 것은 예상 밖이었음. 본인은 두 차례 추가 인상은 과하다고 보며, 7월 회의 전까지 물가·고용 둔화로 인상이 필요 없을 수 있다고 봄. 주식 전망: 10월 12일 이후 시장이 잘 올랐고, 3월 은행위기 때 대형 성장주 중심으로 좁아졌던 상승세가 6월 들어 고용지표 등으로 넓어짐. 경기 침체 우려가 약해졌다고 판단. S&P500: 연말 4,600 목표. 상승이 지속되고 확산될 것으로 봄. 은행·신용: 최근 은행위기 근접으로 신용 여건이 다소 긴축됐으며, Fed가 이를 고려해 인상을 자제할 것으로 봄. 인도: 기업가 정신과 자본주의 기반으로 장기적으로 강세 견해 유지. 대규모 시장으로서 매력도가 높음. 중국: 자의적 규제, 부동산 거품 붕괴, 지정학적 리스크로 비관적. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 미국 주식 상승(연말 S&P500 4,600), 인도 장기 강세, 중국 비관, Fed 추가 인상 제한적.
다듬은 글
Jordan is joining us now president jordani research Ed good to have you with us here thanks for waiting quick thoughts Ed what did you make of the policy and uh what are the implications for uh I mean Equity markets around the world right well as you said nobody was really surprised that they decided to skip raising the interest rates at this meeting but the big surprise was that uh the uh indicated that they will be hiking interest rates some more that's surprised I thought that they would take a hawkish position on the future while taking a relatively dovish position for now I don't I'm not convinced that they're going to be doing two more right hikes I think between now and the next meeting in Late July a lot can happen and I think we're going to continue to see moderation and the inflation rate moderation in the labor market so I don't really know that uh more rate hiking is actually necessary okay more rate hiking may not be necessary but that's the indication that the FED is given what does this mean for risky assets like equities um Ed how do you see Equity shape up in the latter half of the Year given that on one hand there could be rate hikes and on the other hand there is still all that talk about the impending recession uh what's your view now yeah well you know the the Market's done quite well since October 12th um then there was some concern with the banking crisis back in early March that the market rally narrowed to uh the basically the mega cap age stocks and everything else was was kind of languishing uh but in the past few days uh so far in June actually we've seen the market broaden out I think it had a lot to do with the employment report that showed that uh just another piece of evidence that there isn't is a recession out there so I think if the economy continues to show its resilience its ability to grow in the face of uh this tremendous increase in interest rates I think investors will Embrace that and I think you'll see the stock market continuing to move higher I have 4 600 on the S P 500 by the end of the year I I hope it rests and I I hope it broadens out and I think uh both of those are likely good morning uh so if the FED does continue to deliver more rate hikes is uh you know Jay Powell indicated yesterday uh while the market incrementally might sort of take that as a sign of a positive economy what about the accidents along the way not too long ago we're talking about all the midsize U.S banks more rate tightening couldn't that complicate the story a little bit uh will it be really as much a simple straight line as the down the s p is simply heading higher well I think they just wanted to uh it's verbally the perception that they're having given up on the inflation fight that they're not satisfied yet uh Powell said a few times Fed chair Powell said a few times that the core inflation rate's been sticky he didn't really mention the fact that a lot of that is because of rent inflation and we know that rent inflation is going to be coming down so I think uh again I don't think they're going to go for that two more rate hikes I'm not even sure they'll go for one more rate hike and I think the one of the reasons is the one you mentioned and that is we we've had came very close to severe banking crisis uh we don't want to push push that again too hard and and let's not forget that the banking crisis probably means that credit conditions have been tightened somewhat uh before we let you go one final word on how you approaching Emerging Markets like India because the situation here has improved quite a bit on the macro front whether it's inflation cooling off or growth picking up earnings have picked up now so a lot of Tailwinds for the Indian market uh do you think India could uh you know rise to the top of the pecking order for the second half of the calendar year we talked about this uh you know several times as I've appeared on your program and I've consistently been bullish on India um mostly because of the entrepreneurial Spirit the the capitalism that exists in in India uh but also because on a global basis when you're looking for big markets to invest in uh India stands out as as I've previously indicated I'm not a big fan of China mostly because of its uh autocratic government regime where the rules for business can be changed willy-nilly and as we can see the Chinese government is actually struggling to uh get their economy to grow a little faster and that's partly because they've created this big property bubble that's continuing to lose air there are political problems as well in terms of uh geopolitical internal political but between the US and China so people voting with their feet as we've seen in some instances recently and good to speak with you thank you very much for your time appreciate it very much thank you we'll take a quick commercial break here a list of top stocks to watch with our research team coming up in just a bit foreign
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